arXiv subjects

Prajwal Niraula

Publications and source records attributed to Prajwal Niraula.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Leveraging Impact Parameter to Mitigate the Transit Light Source Effect: Early Insights from TRAPPIST-1

Stellar activity complicates exoplanet transmission spectra, particularly for smaller planets around M dwarfs with JWST. The transit light source (TLS) effect, the imprinting of spectral differences between the average stellar disk and the occulted transit chord onto the transmission spectrum, makes it challenging to directly use the out-of-transit spectrum to correct for stellar contamination. Theory and observations suggest that spots may concentrate towards higher latitudes when the Coriolis force is substantial relative to buoyancy, leaving the equatorial region relatively quiet. Here, we evaluate how the latitudinal distribution of active regions shapes the strength of the TLS effect for planets spanning a range of impact parameters ($b$), using TRAPPIST-1 as a testbed. We first construct a fiducial model to illustrate two distribution regimes. With our model, the moderate-$b$ outer TRAPPIST-1 planets (f, g, h) occult a more typical region of the stellar disk than the inner planets and are thereby less affected by the TLS effect, though their bias may vary more from visit-to-visit as these active regions evolve with time. More generally, our results imply an impact parameter "sweet spot" for atmospheric characterization, independent of the sign of the active region temperature contrast, whose location depends on the distribution of active regions. The distribution may be revealed by transit residuals as multiple planets probe different latitudes, while longitudes are sampled in time, such that the variance and frequency of the correlated scatter could constrain active-region filling factors, sizes, and separations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Mapping Stellar Heterogeneities with the Nautilus Space Observatory

Stellar photospheric heterogeneities, such as starspots and faculae, are a fundamental limitation for exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. Inhomogeneous surfaces can imprint wavelength-dependent signals during transits that may mimic or mask atmospheric absorption features, especially for planets orbiting cool low-mass stars. Recent work has shown that the information content of transmission spectroscopy observations can be sufficient to correct for stellar contamination, but only if stellar photosphere and active-region models have adequate fidelity. This requires empirical benchmarking with observations that validate next-generation stellar models and identify which spectral diagnostics best encode heterogeneity properties as a function of spectral type, activity level, and time. We propose a two-generation Nautilus program that leverages the scalable architecture of the observatory concept. Generation 1 would use broad-wavelength time-series observations of transiting exoplanet systems to connect starspot-crossing events and out-of-transit variability to localized and disk-integrated heterogeneity properties. Generation 2 would use the optimized spectral diagnostics identified in Generation 1 to conduct slitless spectroscopic monitoring of large samples of GKM stars on different timescales. Generation 2 instrumentation would include activity tracers of both the photosphere and chromosphere. This program would provide the benchmark data and population-level framework needed to turn stellar contamination into a calibrated input for exoplanet atmospheric retrievals.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Nautilus: Fast Time-Resolved Spectroscopy of GKM Stellar Flares and Their Implications for Planetary Habitability

Low-mass GKM dwarfs are prime targets for finding habitable-zone Earth-sized planets, but their frequent flares, especially on M~dwarfs, can strongly affect planetary atmospheres through enhanced UV/XUV radiation and stellar proton events, which can drive complex photochemistry and accelerate atmospheric escape. Current atmospheric and habitability models of planets around low-mass stars often rely on simplified flare inputs, such as fixed-temperature blackbodies or approximate optical-to-UV/XUV conversions. However, recent observations show that M~dwarfs' flare temperatures and spectral shapes can vary significantly with flare energy, phase, and stellar type, and that optical-based flare observations may underestimate the flare energy in the UV. Time-resolved spectroscopic flare observations of G- and K-dwarfs also remain rare compared to those of M dwarfs. Here, we propose that the Nautilus Space Observatory concept can provide a unique opportunity to obtain fast-cadence, precisely flux-calibrated, moderate-resolution NUV-to-NIR spectroscopy of flares across a large sample of GKM dwarfs. These observations will measure the time-dependent flare energy budget from the near-UV/blue continuum to the optical and near-infrared continuum, while resolving key chromospheric lines that trace the underlying flare physics. We aim to construct a statistical library of empirical flare spectral templates organized by flare and stellar properties, including flare energy, flare phase, and host-star spectral type. This library will provide a practical bridge between observed stellar flare properties and the radiation inputs required for planetary atmospheric evolution and habitability simulations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Unlocking HST's Stellar Treasure Trove: Stellar Activity Minima for HAT-P-11 Offer Prime Windows for Transmission Spectroscopy

HAT-P-11 is a well-studied, active K dwarf hosting an eccentric, misaligned transiting sub-Neptune. As part of the HST Stellar Treasure Trove program (HST-AR-17551), we analyze absolutely calibrated out-of-transit \HST{} spectra from \texttt{STIS} and \texttt{WFC3} across the \textsc{G430L}, \textsc{G750L}, \textsc{G102}, and \textsc{G141} bandpasses to constrain the surface heterogeneity of HAT-P-11 and its impact on transmission spectroscopy. Grid-based spectral retrievals using NewEra \texttt{PHOENIX} models robustly favor two-component photospheres in the \texttt{WFC3} G102 and G141 data, with a ${\sim}4950$\,K photospheric component and a cooler ($\sim$3400\,K) component covering 26{--}33\% of the stellar disk. By contrast, retrievals on the \texttt{STIS} optical spectra do not yield a satisfactory fit, reflecting current limitations of stellar atmosphere models in the optical regime compared to the \HST{} observational precision. We contextualize these results using long-term photometric monitoring and chromospheric activity indices. The inferred high spot covering fractions are broadly consistent with the elevated photometric variability observed during the \textit{Kepler} era ($f_{\rm spot}$$\sim$10--20\%) but are in tension with the much lower rotational amplitudes observed from TESS in the mid 2020s ($f_{\rm spot}$$\sim$1--10\%). This secular decline in variability is mirrored by a $\sim$20\% decrease in the Ca\,\textsc{ii} H\&K index. These results imply that HAT-P-11 undergoes comparatively quiescent phases that offer more favorable windows for atmospheric characterization, which serendipitously coincided with some of the recent JWST observations. More generally, our study demonstrates that multi-epoch, space-based stellar spectra provides a physically grounded pathway for mitigating stellar contamination in high-precision transmission spectra in the JWST era.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

TOI-7166 b: A Habitable Zone mini-Neptune planet around a nearby low-mass star

We present the discovery and validation of TOI-7166b, a 2.01+/-0.05R_Earth planet orbiting a nearby low-mass star. We validated the planet by combining TESS and multi-color high-precision photometric observations from ground-based telescopes, together with spectroscopic data, high-contrast imaging, archival images, and statistical arguments. The host star is an M4-type dwarf at a distance of ~35 pc from the Sun. It has a mass and a radius of Ms=0.190+/-0.004M_Sun and Rs=0.222+/-0.005R_Sun, respectively. TOI-7166b has an orbital period of 12.9 days, which places it close to the inner edge of the Habitable Zone of its host star, receiving an insolation flux of Sp=1.07+/-0.08S_Earth and an equilibrium temperature of Teq=249+/-5K (assuming a null Bond albedo). The brightness of the host star makes TOI-7166 a suitable target for radial velocity follow-up to measure the planetary mass and bulk density. Moreover, the physical parameters of the system including the infrared brightness (Kmag = 10.6) of the star and the planet-to-star radius ratio (0.0823+/-0.0012) make TOI-7166b an exquisite target for transmission spectroscopic observations with the JWST, to constrain the exoplanet atmospheric compositions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Comprehensive Ab Initio Quantum Computations of CO$_{\rm 2}$-H$_{\rm 2}$ and CO$_{\rm 2}$-He Collisional Properties

We present comprehensive \textsl{ab initio} fully quantum calculations of CO$_{\rm 2}$--H$_{\rm 2}$ and CO$_{\rm 2}$--He collisional properties. Our framework combines CCSD(T) potential-energy-surface calculations with close-coupling dynamical scattering in the \YUMI~framework to derive elastic and inelastic cross sections, rate coefficients, and pressure broadening parameters. We characterize the rotational dependence of the broadening coefficients up to $j=25$ for CO$_{\rm 2}$--H$_{\rm 2}$ and $j=40$ for CO$_{\rm 2}$--He, and their temperature dependence over 40--800 K. We also provide Pad\'e fits as a function of rotational quantum number, enabling extrapolation and integration into spectroscopic databases including HITRAN and HITEMP. The resulting pressure broadening coefficients reproduce available experimental measurements on an absolute scale, without empirical correction factors, and meet the $\sim$10\% precision requirement identified for \textit{JWST}-era exoplanet atmospheric studies. This represents a substantial improvement over previously available parameters, which at higher temperatures ($T>400$ K) can fall outside the desired precision by up to a factor of five. All derivations, computed collisional properties, and database-ready products are provided with this manuscript. Together, these results establish a comprehensive \textsl{ab initio}, parameter-free, fully quantum foundation for CO$_2$ collisional broadening by H$_2$ and He, while demonstrating the transformative potential of the ab-initio approach for next-generation spectroscopic needs across planetary atmospheres, combustion, health sciences, and fusion-plasma diagnostics.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2025

Combined Exoplanet Mass and Atmospheric Characterization for Accelerated Exoplanetology

Today's most detailed characterization of exoplanet atmospheres is accessible via transit spectroscopy (TS). Detecting transiting exoplanets only yields their size, and it is thus standard to measure a planet's mass before moving towards their atmospheric characterization, or even the publication of their discovery. This framework, however, can act as a bottleneck for high-throughput exoplanetology. Here, we review existing applications of an alternative approach deriving exoplanet masses in small JWST atmospheric exploration programs and quantify the potential of its systematic application. We find that for $\sim$20\% of transiting exoplanets with existing mass constraints, a small JWST exploration program could yield the planetary mass with a similar -- or better -- precision. Such results suggest that proceeding directly with atmospheric exploration programs for favorable exoplanets (i.e., with a transmission spectroscopy metric, TSM, $\geq$100) could substantially reduce the time from detection to exoplanet atmospheric study and further support JWST's scientific output over its lifetime while saving up to 20\% of resources on radial-velocity (RV) facilities. Furthermore, it can substantially increase the sample of characterized planets of three distinct subpopulations (Neptune-sized, young, and hot-star exoplanets), each providing specific insights into formation and evolution processes. As the field of exoplanets increasingly turns to directly imaged planets, mastering the determination of planetary masses from atmospheric spectra will become essential.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Helium Atmospheres May Hide in Current Exoplanet Analysis Frameworks

The increasing number of detailed exoplanet observations offers an opportunity to refine our analyses and interpretations. Here, we show that atmospheres that appear volatile-rich and/or cloudy may instead be helium-rich. As transmission spectra constrain the atmospheric scale height ($H$), a He-enriched atmosphere can be misinterpreted as H$_2$-dominated water-rich to bring the mean molecular weight ($\mu$) to intermediate values ($\sim$4$-$10) when He/H$_2$ is fixed. Similarly, a cloud deck can reduce the spectral features, and thus the apparent (i.e., cloud-free equivalent) $H$. We present a proof-of-concept reanalysis of HD~209458~b's JWST transmission spectrum treating He/H$_2$ as a free parameter, resulting in sets of He-rich solutions. We argue that He enhancement must be considered to reliably constrain atmospheric composition, be sensitive to a more diverse planetary population, and ultimately yield robust trends to inform formation and evolution pathways. Looking ahead, we suggest leveraging insights from differences in pressure-broadening effects, outflow measurements, and atmospheric chemistry to disentangle reliably between He-, volatile-rich, and cloudy atmospheres -- while recognizing that associated models need targeted upgrades to reach the fidelity level required to this end.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

The Detection-vs-Retrieval Challenge: Titan as an Exoplanet

Cassini's observations of Titan's atmosphere are exemplary benchmarks for exoplanet atmospheric studies owing to (1) their precision and (2) our independent knowledge of Titan. Leveraging these observations, we perform retrievals (i.e., analyses) of Titan's transmission spectrum to investigate the strengths/limitations of exoplanet atmospheric retrievals with a particular focus on the underlying assumptions regarding the molecular species included in the retrieval. We find that multiple hydrocarbons can be ``retrieved'' depending on the selection made ahead of a retrieval. More importantly, we find that the estimates of other parameters such as the abundance of key absorbers like methane can be biased by $\sim$0.5 dex (by a factor of $\sim$3) due to such choices. This shows that beyond the possible misidentification of a molecular feature (e.g., current debate surrounding dimethyl sulfide, DMS, in K2-18 b), the implicit molecular detections made pre-retrieval to avoid retrieving for hundreds of molecules at a time can bias a large range of parameters. We thus recommend sensitivity analysis to assess the dependencies of atmospheric inferences on such selections in tandem with complementary information (e.g., chemistry models) to support any pre-retrieval selection. Finally, we introduce an independent path to constrain the dominant atmospheric constituent, even when lacking observable absorption feature (e.g., H$_2$ and N$_2$) through the scale height.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Reliable Transmission Spectrum Extraction with a Three-Parameter Limb Darkening Law

Stellar limb darkening must be properly accounted for to accurately determine the radii of exoplanets at various wavelengths. The standard approach to address limb darkening involves either using laws with coefficients from modelled stellar spectra or determining the coefficients empirically during light curve fitting of the data. Here, we test how accurately three common laws -- quadratic, power, and a three-parameter law -- can reproduce stellar limb darkening at different wavelengths and across a broad range of stars. We show that using a quadratic limb darkening law, which is most frequently employed by the community, leads to wavelength-dependent offsets in retrieved transmission spectra. For planets with high impact parameters ($b$ larger than about 0.5) the amplitude of these offsets can reach 1\% of the transit depth which is some cases is comparable to and can even exceed the expected signals from the planetary atmosphere. Furthermore, the quadratic law causes an offset in the value of the impact parameter when it is determined by fitting the broadband transit light curves. In contrast, using the Kipping--Sing three-parameter law leads to robust retrievals. We advocate the use of this law in retrievals, especially for transits with large impact parameters.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Ab initio quantum dynamics as a scalable solution to the exoplanet opacity challenge: A case study of CO$_2$ in hydrogen atmosphere

Light-matter interactions lie at the heart of our exploration of exoplanetary atmospheres. Interpreting data obtained by remote sensing is enabled by meticulous, time- and resource-consuming work aiming at deepening our understanding of such interactions (i.e., opacity models). Recently, Niraula et al. 2022 pointed out that due primarily to limitations on our modeling of broadening and far-wing behaviors, opacity models needed a timely update for exoplanet exploration in the JWST era, and thus argued for a scalable approach. In this proof-of-concept study, we introduce an end-to-end solution from \textsl{ab initio} calculations to pressure broadening, and use a perturbation framework to identify the need for precision to a level of $\sim$10\%. We focus on the CO$_2$-H$_2$ system as CO$_2$ is a key absorption feature for exoplanet research (primarily in many gas giants) at $\sim$4.3$\mu$m as pressure-broadening parameters required for interpreting such observations remain sparse. We compute elastic and inelastic cross-sections for the collision of {ortho-}H$_2$~with CO$_2$, in the ground vibrational state, and at the coupled-channel fully converged level. For scattering energies above $\sim$20~cm$^{-1}$, moderate precision inter-molecular potentials are indistinguishable from high precision ones in cross-sections. Our calculations agree with the currently available measurement within 7\%, i.e., well beyond the precision requirements.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Detection of an Earth-sized exoplanet orbiting the nearby ultracool dwarf star SPECULOOS-3

Located at the bottom of the main sequence, ultracool dwarf stars are widespread in the solar neighbourhood. Nevertheless, their extremely low luminosity has left their planetary population largely unexplored, and only one of them, TRAPPIST-1, has so far been found to host a transiting planetary system. In this context, we present the SPECULOOS project's detection of an Earth-sized planet in a 17 h orbit around an ultracool dwarf of M6.5 spectral type located 16.8 pc away. The planet's high irradiation (16 times that of Earth) combined with the infrared luminosity and Jupiter-like size of its host star make it one of the most promising rocky exoplanet targets for detailed emission spectroscopy characterization with JWST. Indeed, our sensitivity study shows that just ten secondary eclipse observations with the Mid-InfraRed Instrument/Low-Resolution Spectrometer on board JWST should provide strong constraints on its atmospheric composition and/or surface mineralogy.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Atmospheric carbon depletion as a tracer of water oceans and biomass on temperate terrestrial exoplanets

The conventional observables to identify a habitable or inhabited environment in exoplanets, such as an ocean glint or abundant atmospheric O$_2$, will be challenging to detect with present or upcoming observatories. Here we suggest a new signature. A low carbon abundance in the atmosphere of a temperate rocky planet, relative to other planets of the same system, traces the presence of substantial amount of liquid water, plate tectonic and/or biomass. We show that JWST can already perform such a search in some selected systems like TRAPPIST-1 via the CO$_2$ band at $4.3\,\rm μm$, which falls in a spectral sweet spot where the overall noise budget and the effect of cloud/hazes are optimal. We propose a 3-step strategy for transiting exoplanets: 1) detection of an atmosphere around temperate terrestrial planets in $\sim 10$ transits for the most favorable systems, (2) assessment of atmospheric carbon depletion in $\sim 40$ transits, (3) measurements of O$_3$ abundance to disentangle between a water- vs biomass-supported carbon depletion in $\sim100$ transits. The concept of carbon depletion as a signature for habitability is also applicable for next-generation direct imaging telescopes.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

A roadmap for the atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

Ultra-cool dwarf stars are abundant, long-lived, and uniquely suited to enable the atmospheric study of transiting terrestrial companions with JWST. Amongst them, the most prominent is the M8.5V star TRAPPIST-1 and its seven planets. While JWST Cycle 1 observations have started to yield preliminary insights into the planets, they have also revealed that their atmospheric exploration requires a better understanding of their host star. Here, we propose a roadmap to characterize the TRAPPIST-1 system -- and others like it -- in an efficient and robust manner. We notably recommend that -- although more challenging to schedule -- multi-transit windows be prioritized to mitigate the effects of stellar activity and gather up to twice more transits per JWST hour spent. We conclude that, for such systems, planets cannot be studied in isolation by small programs, but rather need large-scale, jointly space- and ground-based initiatives to fully exploit the capabilities of JWST for the exploration of terrestrial planets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

An extended low-density atmosphere around the Jupiter-sized planet WASP-193 b

Gas giants transiting bright nearby stars provide crucial insights into planetary system formation and evolution mechanisms. Most of these planets exhibit certain average characteristics, serving as benchmarks for our understanding of planetary systems. However, outliers like the planet we present in this study, WASP-193b, offer unique opportunities to explore unconventional formation and evolution processes. This planet completes an orbit around its Vmag=12.2 F9 main-sequence host star every 6.25 d. Our analyses found that WASP-193b has a mass of Mp=0.139+/-0.029 MJup and a radius of Rp=1.464+/-0.058 RJup, translating into an extremely low density of rho_p = 0.059+/-0.014 g/cm^3, at least one order of magnitude less than standard gas giants like Jupiter. Typical gas giants such as Jupiter have densities that range between 0.2 and 2 g/cm^3. The combination of its large transit depth (dF~1.4%), its extremely-low density, its high-equilibrium temperature (Teq = 1254+/-31 K), and the infrared brightness of its host star (magnitude Kmag=10.7) makes WASP-193b an exquisite target for characterization by transmission spectroscopy (transmission spectroscopy metric: TSM~600). One single JWST transit observation would yield detailed insights into its atmospheric properties and planetary mass, providing a unique window to explore the mechanisms behind its exceptionally low density and shed light on giant planets' diverse nature.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Origin and extent of the opacity challenge for atmospheric retrievals of WASP-39 b

As the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) came online last summer, we entered a new era of astronomy. This new era is supported by data products of unprecedented information content that require novel reduction and analysis techniques. Recently, Niraula et al. 2022 (N22) highlighted the need for upgraded opacity models to prevent facing a model-driven accuracy wall when interpreting exoplanet transmission spectra. Here, we follow the same approach as N22 to explore the sensitivity of inferences on the atmospheric properties of WASP-39 b to the opacity models used. We find that the retrieval of the main atmospheric properties from this first JWST exoplanet spectrum is mostly unaffected by the current state of the community's opacity models. Abundances of strong opacity sources like water and carbon dioxide are reliably constrained within $\sim$0.30 dex, beyond the 0.50 dex accuracy wall reported in N22. Assuming the completeness and accuracy of line lists, N22's accuracy wall is primarily driven by model uncertainties on broadening coefficients and far-wing behaviors, which we find to have marginal consequences for interpreting the transmission spectra of large, hot, high-metallicity atmospheres such as WASP-39 b, in opposition to emission spectra and climate modeling which depend on deeper parts of a planetary atmosphere. The origin of the opacity challenge in the retrieval of metal-rich hot Jupiters via transmission spectroscopy will thus mostly stem from the incompleteness and inaccuracy of line lists.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

A 1.55 R$_{\oplus}$ habitable-zone planet hosted by TOI-715, an M4 star near the ecliptic South Pole

A new generation of observatories is enabling detailed study of exoplanetary atmospheres and the diversity of alien climates, allowing us to seek evidence for extraterrestrial biological and geological processes. Now is therefore the time to identify the most unique planets to be characterised with these instruments. In this context, we report on the discovery and validation of TOI-715 b, a $R_{\rm b}=1.55\pm 0.06\rm R_{\oplus}$ planet orbiting its nearby ($42$ pc) M4 host (TOI-715/TIC 271971130) with a period $P_{\rm b} = 19.288004_{-0.000024}^{+0.000027}$ days. TOI-715 b was first identified by TESS and validated using ground-based photometry, high-resolution imaging and statistical validation. The planet's orbital period combined with the stellar effective temperature $T_{\rm eff}=3075\pm75~\rm K$ give this planet an instellation $S_{\rm b} = 0.67_{-0.20}^{+0.15}~\rm S_\oplus$, placing it within the most conservative definitions of the habitable zone for rocky planets. TOI-715 b's radius falls exactly between two measured locations of the M-dwarf radius valley; characterising its mass and composition will help understand the true nature of the radius valley for low-mass stars. We demonstrate TOI-715 b is amenable for characterisation using precise radial velocities and transmission spectroscopy. Additionally, we reveal a second candidate planet in the system, TIC 271971130.02, with a potential orbital period of $P_{02} = 25.60712_{-0.00036}^{+0.00031}$ days and a radius of $R_{02} = 1.066\pm0.092\,\rm R_{\oplus}$, just inside the outer boundary of the habitable zone, and near a 4:3 orbital period commensurability. Should this second planet be confirmed, it would represent the smallest habitable zone planet discovered by TESS to date.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

SPECULOOS Northern Observatory: searching for red worlds in the northern skies

SPECULOOS is a ground-based transit survey consisting of six identical 1-m robotic telescopes. The immediate goal of the project is to detect temperate terrestrial planets transiting nearby ultracool dwarfs (late M-dwarf stars and brown dwarfs), which could be amenable for atmospheric research with the next generation of telescopes. Here, we report the developments of the northern counterpart of the project - SPECULOOS Northern Observatory, and present its performance during the first three years of operations from mid-2019 to mid-2022. Currently, the observatory consists of one telescope, which is named Artemis. The Artemis telescope demonstrates remarkable photometric precision, allowing it to be ready to detect new transiting terrestrial exoplanets around ultracool dwarfs. Over the period of the first three years after the installation, we observed 96 objects from the SPECULOOS target list for 6000 hours with a typical photometric precision of $0.5\%$, and reaching a precision of $0.2\%$ for relatively bright non-variable targets with a typical exposure time of 25 sec. Our weather downtime (clouds, high wind speed, high humidity, precipitation and/or high concentration of dust particles in the air) over the period of three years was 30% of overall night time. Our actual downtime is 40% because of additional time loss associated with technical problems.

astro-ph.IM↗