Pranav Kumar Kaliaperumal

arXiv2026

From BERT to Frontier Agents: Eight Years of Language-Model Progress, the Collapse of the Capability-Cost Curve, and the Rise of Task-Targeted Models

Between October 2018 and July 2026 AI models progressed from simple systems like BERT to massive agents that solve complex math and write software. The ability to resolve real coding issues improved by nearly six times per year since late 2024. During this time costs dropped sharply with OpenAIs budget model GPT 5 point 6 Luna matching flagship capabilities for just one to six dollars per million tokens beating older versions at a fraction of the price. Top performance is now split across specialized models as Claude Opus 5 leads in frontend coding Claude Fable 5 excels at repository level coding and GPT 5 point 6 Sol dominates terminal tasks. In a grade school math test using the Qwen 2 point 5 model basic methods solved 58 of 100 problems while advanced sampling solved up to 79. A confidence ranking tool correctly identified 47 right answers in its top 50 choices proving highly useful for sorting tasks with all research materials made fully public.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Activation Outliers in Transformer Quantization: Reproduction, Statistical Analysis, and Deployment Tradeoffs

Post-training quantization (PTQ) of transformers is known to suffer from severe accuracy degradation due to structured activation outliers, as originally analyzed by Bondarenko et al. (EMNLP 2021) in work associated with Qualcomm AI Research. This paper provides a reproducible empirical reproduction and systems-level extension of that phenomenon in BERT-base fine-tuned on QNLI. When global W8A8 quantization is applied, validation accuracy drops sharply from 89.66% (FP32) to 54.33%, a decrease of 35.33 points. Statistical analysis of FP32 activations shows strongly heavy-tailed behavior that intensifies with model depth: kurtosis reaches 271 in the final layers and approximately 55% of activation energy is concentrated in the top 1% of channels. We evaluate several mitigation strategies. Mixed precision PTQ restores accuracy close to the FP32 baseline (89.42%). Per-embedding-group (PEG) quantization shows strong sensitivity to grouping structure, improving accuracy from 66.12% with three groups to 86.18% with four groups. In contrast, percentile-based calibration, even at thresholds between 99.0 and 99.99, fails to recover accuracy (about 50.54%), indicating that large activation channels encode structured signal rather than rare noise. Deployment profiling on an RTX 3050 GPU shows minimal differences in latency and memory usage across methods (median latency about 58-59 ms; VRAM usage about 484-486 MB), highlighting the importance of hardware-aware evaluation. Overall, the results show that PTQ failure in transformers is primarily driven by structured channel dominance amplified through residual connections. Effective mitigation therefore requires channel-aware precision allocation rather than scalar clipping alone.

cs.LG↗