arXiv subjects

Pride Duve

Publications and source records attributed to Pride Duve.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A temperature-driven diffusion model of Usutu virus spread in Germany with spillover into neighbouring countries

Usutu virus (USUV) is a flavivirus of the Japanese encephalitis complex transmitted between \textit{Culex} mosquitoes and birds, a transmission pattern similar to that of the West Nile virus (WNV). In Germany, the first case of USUV was detected in 2010 in mosquitoes collected in the town of Weinheim, and by 2018 the virus had spread to almost the entire country. Interestingly, the infection front exhibited a clockwise rotational spread pattern throughout the years, a pattern completely different from that of the WNV. This clockwise progression corresponded closely with the spatial temperature gradient, suggesting that warmer regions probably facilitated faster viral amplification and onward transmission. Understanding the drivers that influence the spreading patterns of arboviruses is important as it guides surveillance and implementation of control strategies. In this study, we develop a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) model to investigate the spatial spread of USUV in Germany within an extended domain that includes some neighbouring countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg), thereby capturing cross-border transmission processes. Mosquito parameters, i.e., extrinsic incubation rate, mortality and biting rates, are temperature-driven, as temperature plays an important role in the activity of mosquitoes. Our model qualitatively reproduced the main spatial trends of USUV in Germany and surrounding countries. The heterogeneous spread pattern arises from the interplay of diffusion and spatially varying temperature, which together may influence determine regions with higher transmission potential.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Modelling the control of West Nile virus using mosquito reduction methods, vaccination of equids, and human behavioral adaptation to the usage of personal protective equipment

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Flavivirus that circulates between mosquitoes and birds, whereas humans, equids, and other mammals are dead-end hosts. Since its emergence in Germany in 2018, the virus has spread across the country, emphasising the need for effective intervention strategies. However, it remains unclear how different strategies should be combined and timed to effectively reduce WNV transmission under temperature-driven dynamics. In this study, we develop a temperature-dependent, process-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of WNV control strategies, such as mosquito reduction methods, equid vaccination, and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Human behavioural responses to infection risk are incorporated through imitation dynamics that capture how individuals adopt PPE based on perceived infection risk and social influence. An optimal control problem has been formulated and studied to determine the seasonal timing of mosquito controls under temperature forcing. Results suggest that mosquito control efforts initiated in early spring and intensified in early May, may reduce the August peak in the infectious bird population. Moreover, a combined scenario of mosquito control methods, human PPE adoption, and equid vaccination could be the best strategy among dead-end hosts. The analysis of various combinations of constant controls is available as an interactive application, allowing users to explore intervention strategies under different temperature projections corresponding to the low-mitigation (SSP126), intermediate (SSP245), and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Modeling the impact of temperature and bird migration on the spread of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne arbovirus circulating between mosquitoes of the genus Culex and birds, with a potential spillover to humans and other mammals. Recent trends in climatic change, characterized by early and/or prolonged summer seasons, increased temperatures, and above-average rainfall, probably facilitated the spread of WNV in Europe, including Germany. In this work, we formulate a spatial WNV model consisting of a system of parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs), using the concept of diffusion and advection in combination with temperature-dependent parameters, i.e., mosquito biting rate, extrinsic incubation, and mortality rate. Diffusion represents the random movement of both mosquitoes and hosts across space, while advection captures the directed movement of migratory birds. The model is first studied mathematically, and we show that it has non-negative, unique, and bounded solutions in time and space. Numerical simulations of the PDE model are performed using temperature data for Germany (2019 - 2024). Results obtained from the simulation showed a high agreement with the reported WNV cases among birds and equids in Germany. The observed spreading patterns from the year 2018 to 2022 and the year 2024 were mainly driven by temperature in combination with diffusion processes of hosts and vectors. Only during the year 2023, the additional inclusion of advection for migratory birds was important to correctly predict new hotspots in new locations in Germany.

q-bio.PE↗