Testing the validity of backward orbit reconstruction for outer Local Group dwarf galaxies in IllustrisTNG-100
Orbits of Milky Way (MW) and M31 satellites in cosmological simulations have been shown to match analytic orbits computed in fine-tuned models of the extended potential of the MW/M31 halos. Using a sample of Local Group (LG) analogs from the Illustris TNG100 simulations, we investigate whether the same is true for LG satellites near the periphery of the LG turnaround radius ($\sim 1\,{\rm Mpc}$), but outside the virial radii of the MW and M31. From both dark matter-only (TNG100-Dark) and full hydrodynamical (TNG100-1) simulations, we track the orbits of dwarf galaxy analogs and compare them with orbits resulting from an analytic model of the LG potential, which is dominated by the dark matter halos of the MW and M31, along with, where appropriate, their most massive satellites. We find that the reconstructed orbits of the selected outer LG satellites agree with the simulated orbits to within $\lesssim 10\%$ over the last 6 Gyr, with the scatter increasing with lookback time and reaching $\sim 40\%$ by 6 Gyr. The fact that orbits of outer LG dwarfs track the analytical models suggests that any excess mass in the outer regions of our LG analogs or the tidal field surrounding the LG does not affect the orbits of outer LG satellites. Residual differences between the analytic and simulated orbits are likely due to a combination of mass accretion for the satellites and MW/M31, the non-spherical nature of the MW/M31 potential, and the prescription for dynamical friction in the analytical models.