GEAR: Generative Expansion and Real Anchoring for Two-Stage Distillation of Tabular Foundation Models
Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve strong performance through in-context learning, but context-dependent inference imposes substantial latency and memory costs, hindering large-scale deployment. We propose GEAR (\emph{Generative Expansion and Real Anchoring}), a modular two-stage framework that distills TFMs into lightweight MLP or tree-based predictors that can be deployed on commodity CPUs. Stage 1 uses synthetic covariates solely as teacher-query locations and trains the student on soft TFM targets, expanding coverage beyond observed rows. Stage 2 re-anchors the student to the target distribution using real labels and out-of-fold teacher predictions, whitch avoids self-labeling leakage. We further derive a risk certificate characterizing the trade-off between generated-query volume and generator fidelity. Experiments on TALENT and TabArena demonstrate the broad applicability of GEAR. Two-stage MLPs outperform supervised MLPs by 1.81--2.00 AUC points on binary tasks and 1.19--1.35 points on multiclass tasks, with additional gains over real-data-only distillation of 1.76--2.19 and 2.09--2.40 points, respectively. On binary tasks, the gains also transfer to LightGBM and XGBoost, and all three student families outperform CatBoost, the strongest non-TFM baseline, in mean AUC. Ablations show gains beyond longer training or alternative warm starts, greater stability from staged than mixed optimization, and generator-dependent diminishing returns as query volume increases. Finally, GEAR reduces median inference time by 57--2866 times and peak prediction memory by 1.9--3.3 times, while retaining higher AUC than matched supervised baselines.