arXiv subjects

Qianyang Li

Publications and source records attributed to Qianyang Li.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting

Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability. This paper studies forecastability-aware expert routing: learning how data characteristics determine the suitability of forecasting experts. We propose \method{}, a sparse mixture-of-experts framework that represents each series with a multidimensional forecastability fingerprint, mines expert-suitability targets from validation performance, and trains a cost-aware sparse router to activate a small budgeted set of experts for each series. Using a production-scale vending-machine sales dataset from Shandong New Beiyang (SNBC), where the forecasting component has been integrated into the replenishment-planning pipeline, together with public retail benchmarks, we show that expert suitability varies systematically across data regimes. On the industrial dataset with 5,000+ machines and 60M+ transactions, \method{} Top-2 reduces MSE by 12.4\% over the strongest single expert, LightGBM, while executing 1.92 experts per series on average. The deployed component produces demand forecasts, while inventory-oriented gains are estimated by an offline replay simulator under a fixed replenishment policy rather than by online intervention. The framework turns heterogeneous sales forecasting from heuristic model selection into data mining of forecastability patterns and expert specialization. Code is available at https://github.com/hit636/FAME

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ASGMamba: Adaptive Spectral Gating Mamba for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Long-term multivariate time series forecasting (LTSF) plays a crucial role in various high-performance computing applications, including real-time energy grid management and large-scale traffic flow simulation. However, existing solutions face a dilemma: Transformer-based models suffer from quadratic complexity, limiting their scalability on long sequences, while linear State Space Models (SSMs) often struggle to distinguish valuable signals from high-frequency noise, leading to wasted state capacity. To bridge this gap, we propose ASGMamba, an efficient forecasting framework designed for resource-constrained supercomputing environments. ASGMamba integrates a lightweight Adaptive Spectral Gating (ASG) mechanism that dynamically filters noise based on local spectral energy, enabling the Mamba backbone to focus its state evolution on robust temporal dynamics. Furthermore, we introduce a hierarchical multi-scale architecture with variable-specific Node Embeddings to capture diverse physical characteristics. Extensive experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate that ASGMamba achieves state-of-the-art accuracy. While keeping strictly $$\mathcal{O}(L)$$ complexity we significantly reduce the memory usage on long-horizon tasks, thus establishing ASGMamba as a scalable solution for high-throughput forecasting in resource limited environments.The code is available at https://github.com/hit636/ASGMamba

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

D-CTNet: A Dual-Branch Channel-Temporal Forecasting Network with Frequency-Domain Correction

Accurate Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for collaborative design of complex systems, Digital Twin building, and maintenance ahead of time. However, the collaborative industrial environment presents new challenges for MTS forecasting models: models should decouple complex inter-variable dependencies while addressing non-stationary distribution shift brought by environmental changes. To address these challenges and improve collaborative sensing reliability, we propose a Patch-Based Dual-Branch Channel-Temporal Forecasting Network (D-CTNet). Particularly, with a parallel dual-branch design incorporating linear temporal modeling layer and channel attention mechanism, our method explicitly decouples and jointly learns intra-channel temporal evolution patterns and dynamic multivariate correlations. Furthermore, a global patch attention fusion module goes beyond the local window scope to model long range dependencies. Most importantly, aiming at non-stationarity, a Frequency-Domain Stationarity Correction mechanism adaptively suppresses distribution shift impacts from environment change by spectrum alignment. Evaluations on seven benchmark datasets show that our model achieves better forecasting accuracy and robustness compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our work shows great promise as a new forecasting engine for industrial collaborative systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AWEMixer: Adaptive Wavelet-Enhanced Mixer Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting long-term time series in IoT environments remains a significant challenge due to the non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics of sensor signals. Furthermore, error accumulation causes a decrease in forecast quality when predicting further into the future. Traditional methods are restricted to operate in time-domain, while the global frequency information achieved by Fourier transform would be regarded as stationary signals leading to blur the temporal patterns of transient events. We propose AWEMixer, an Adaptive Wavelet-Enhanced Mixer Network including two innovative components: 1) a Frequency Router designs to utilize the global periodicity pattern achieved by Fast Fourier Transform to adaptively weight localized wavelet subband, and 2) a Coherent Gated Fusion Block to achieve selective integration of prominent frequency features with multi-scale temporal representation through cross-attention and gating mechanism, which realizes accurate time-frequency localization while remaining robust to noise. Seven public benchmarks validate that our model is more effective than recent state-of-the-art models. Specifically, our model consistently achieves performance improvement compared with transformer-based and MLP-based state-of-the-art models in long-sequence time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/hit636/AWEMixer

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DPANet: Dual Pyramid Attention Network for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is hampered by the challenge of modeling complex dependencies that span multiple temporal scales and frequency resolutions. Existing methods, including Transformer and MLP-based models, often struggle to capture these intertwined characteristics in a unified and structured manner. We propose the Dual Pyramid Attention Network (DPANet), a novel architecture that explicitly decouples and concurrently models temporal multi-scale dynamics and spectral multi-resolution periodicities. DPANet constructs two parallel pyramids: a Temporal Pyramid built on progressive downsampling, and a Frequency Pyramid built on band-pass filtering. The core of our model is the Cross-Pyramid Fusion Block, which facilitates deep, interactive information exchange between corresponding pyramid levels via cross-attention. This fusion proceeds in a coarse-to-fine hierarchy, enabling global context to guide local representation learning. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks show that DPANet achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming prior models. Code is available at https://github.com/hit636/DPANet.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SDGF: Fusing Static and Multi-Scale Dynamic Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Accurate multivariate time series forecasting hinges on inter-series correlations, which often evolve in complex ways across different temporal scales. Existing methods are limited in modeling these multi-scale dependencies and struggle to capture their intricate and evolving nature. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel Static-Dynamic Graph Fusion network (SDGF), whose core lies in capturing multi-scale inter-series correlations through a dual-path graph structure learning approach. Specifically, the model utilizes a static graph based on prior knowledge to anchor long-term, stable dependencies, while concurrently employing Multi-level Wavelet Decomposition to extract multi-scale features for constructing an adaptively learned dynamic graph to capture associations at different scales. We design an attention-gated module to fuse these two complementary sources of information intelligently, and a multi-kernel dilated convolutional network is then used to deepen the understanding of temporal patterns. Comprehensive experiments on multiple widely used real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model. Code is available at https://github.com/shaoxun6033/SDGFNet.

cs.LG↗