arXiv subjects

Qin Chao

Publications and source records attributed to Qin Chao.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Copycat vs. Original: Multi-modal Pretraining and Variable Importance in Box-office Prediction

The movie industry is associated with an elevated level of risk, which necessitates the use of automated tools to predict box-office revenue and facilitate human decision-making. In this study, we build a sophisticated multimodal neural network that predicts box offices by grounding crowdsourced descriptive keywords of each movie in the visual information of the movie posters, thereby enhancing the learned keyword representations, resulting in a substantial reduction of 14.5% in box-office prediction error. The advanced revenue prediction model enables the analysis of the commercial viability of "copycat movies," or movies with substantial similarity to successful movies released recently. We do so by computing the influence of copycat features in box-office prediction. We find a positive relationship between copycat status and movie revenue. However, this effect diminishes when the number of similar movies and the similarity of their content increase. Overall, our work develops sophisticated deep learning tools for studying the movie industry and provides valuable business insight.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2025

STRATA-TS: Selective Knowledge Transfer for Urban Time Series Forecasting with Retrieval-Guided Reasoning

Urban forecasting models often face a severe data imbalance problem: only a few cities have dense, long-span records, while many others expose short or incomplete histories. Direct transfer from data-rich to data-scarce cities is unreliable because only a limited subset of source patterns truly benefits the target domain, whereas indiscriminate transfer risks introducing noise and negative transfer. We present STRATA-TS (Selective TRAnsfer via TArget-aware retrieval for Time Series), a framework that combines domain-adapted retrieval with reasoning-capable large models to improve forecasting in scarce data regimes. STRATA-TS employs a patch-based temporal encoder to identify source subsequences that are semantically and dynamically aligned with the target query. These retrieved exemplars are then injected into a retrieval-guided reasoning stage, where an LLM performs structured inference over target inputs and retrieved support. To enable efficient deployment, we distill the reasoning process into a compact open model via supervised fine-tuning. Extensive experiments on three parking availability datasets across Singapore, Nottingham, and Glasgow demonstrate that STRATA-TS consistently outperforms strong forecasting and transfer baselines, while providing interpretable knowledge transfer pathways.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Two Causally Related Needles in a Video Haystack

Properly evaluating the ability of Video-Language Models (VLMs) to understand long videos remains a challenge. We propose a long-context video understanding benchmark, Causal2Needles, that assesses two crucial abilities insufficiently addressed by existing benchmarks: (1) extracting information from two separate locations (two needles) in a long video and understanding them jointly, and (2) modeling the world in terms of cause and effect in human behaviors. Causal2Needles evaluates these abilities using noncausal one-needle, causal one-needle, and causal two-needle questions. The most complex question type, causal two-needle questions, require extracting information from both the cause and effect events from a long video and the associated narration text. To prevent textual bias, we introduce two complementary question formats: locating the video clip containing the answer, and verbal description of a visual detail from that video clip. Our experiments reveal that models excelling on existing benchmarks struggle with causal 2-needle questions, and the model performance is negatively correlated with the distance between the two needles. These findings highlight critical limitations in current VLMs. The dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/causal2needles/Causal2Needles

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Zero-to-Strong Generalization: Eliciting Strong Capabilities of Large Language Models Iteratively without Gold Labels

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance through supervised fine-tuning or in-context learning using gold labels. However, this paradigm is limited by the availability of gold labels, while in certain scenarios, LLMs may need to perform tasks that are too complex for humans to provide such labels. To tackle this challenge, this study explores whether solely utilizing unlabeled data can elicit strong model capabilities. We propose a new paradigm termed zero-to-strong generalization. We iteratively prompt LLMs to annotate unlabeled data and retain high-quality labels by filtering. Surprisingly, we obverse that this iterative process gradually unlocks LLMs' potential on downstream tasks. Our experiments on extensive classification and reasoning tasks confirm the effectiveness of our proposed framework. Our analysis indicates that this paradigm is effective for both in-context learning and fine-tuning, and for various model sizes.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

UrbanLLM: Autonomous Urban Activity Planning and Management with Large Language Models

Location-based services play an critical role in improving the quality of our daily lives. Despite the proliferation of numerous specialized AI models within spatio-temporal context of location-based services, these models struggle to autonomously tackle problems regarding complex urban planing and management. To bridge this gap, we introduce UrbanLLM, a fine-tuned large language model (LLM) designed to tackle diverse problems in urban scenarios. UrbanLLM functions as a problem-solver by decomposing urban-related queries into manageable sub-tasks, identifying suitable spatio-temporal AI models for each sub-task, and generating comprehensive responses to the given queries. Our experimental results indicate that UrbanLLM significantly outperforms other established LLMs, such as Llama and the GPT series, in handling problems concerning complex urban activity planning and management. UrbanLLM exhibits considerable potential in enhancing the effectiveness of solving problems in urban scenarios, reducing the workload and reliance for human experts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Event Causality Is Key to Computational Story Understanding

Cognitive science and symbolic AI research suggest that event causality provides vital information for story understanding. However, machine learning systems for story understanding rarely employ event causality, partially due to the lack of methods that reliably identify open-world causal event relations. Leveraging recent progress in large language models, we present the first method for event causality identification that leads to material improvements in computational story understanding. Our technique sets a new state of the art on the COPES dataset (Wang et al., 2023) for causal event relation identification. Further, in the downstream story quality evaluation task, the identified causal relations lead to 3.6-16.6% relative improvement on correlation with human ratings. In the multimodal story video-text alignment task, we attain 4.1-10.9% increase on Clip Accuracy and 4.2-13.5% increase on Sentence IoU. The findings indicate substantial untapped potential for event causality in computational story understanding. The codebase is at https://github.com/insundaycathy/Event-Causality-Extraction.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Movie Box Office Prediction With Self-Supervised and Visually Grounded Pretraining

Investments in movie production are associated with a high level of risk as movie revenues have long-tailed and bimodal distributions. Accurate prediction of box-office revenue may mitigate the uncertainty and encourage investment. However, learning effective representations for actors, directors, and user-generated content-related keywords remains a challenging open problem. In this work, we investigate the effects of self-supervised pretraining and propose visual grounding of content keywords in objects from movie posters as a pertaining objective. Experiments on a large dataset of 35,794 movies demonstrate significant benefits of self-supervised training and visual grounding. In particular, visual grounding pretraining substantially improves learning on movies with content keywords and achieves 14.5% relative performance gains compared to a finetuned BERT model with identical architecture.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2023

Synopses of Movie Narratives: a Video-Language Dataset for Story Understanding

Despite recent advances of AI, story understanding remains an open and under-investigated problem. We collect, preprocess, and publicly release a video-language story dataset, Synopses of Movie Narratives (SyMoN), containing 5,193 video summaries of popular movies and TV series with a total length of 869 hours. SyMoN captures naturalistic storytelling videos made by human creators and intended for a human audience. As a prototypical and naturalistic story dataset, SyMoN features high coverage of multimodal story events and abundant mental-state descriptions. Its use of storytelling techniques cause cross-domain semantic gaps that provide appropriate challenges to existing models. We establish benchmarks on video-text retrieval and zero-shot alignment on movie summary videos, which showcase the importance of in-domain data and long-term memory in story understanding. With SyMoN, we hope to lay the groundwork for progress in multimodal story understanding.

cs.CV↗