arXiv subjects

Qing-Bin Lu

Publications and source records attributed to Qing-Bin Lu.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Contribution of Shorter-term Radiative Forcings of Aerosols and Ozone to Global Warming in the Last Two Decades

This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover extent, and sea ice extent (SIE). We strikingly found warming trends of 0.77(+/-0.57) and 0.69(+/-0.22) K/decade in UST at altitudes of 35-40 km in the Arctic and Antarctic respectively and no significant trends over non-polar regions since 2002. These UST trends provide fingerprints of decreasing and no significant trends in total GHG effect in polar and non-polar regions respectively. Correspondingly, we made the first observation of surface cooling trends in both the Antarctic since 2005 and the Arctic since 2016 once the SIE started to recover. But surface warming remains at mid-latitudes, which causes the recent rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST). These temperature changing patterns are consistent with the characteristics of the cosmic-ray-driven electron reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing GHGs (halo-GHGs) with larger destruction rates at higher latitudes. Moreover, the no-parameter physics model of warming caused by halo-GHGs reproduces closely the observed GMSTs from 2000 to 2024, including the almost no warming during 2000-2012 and the significant warming by 0.2-0.3 deg C during 2013-2023, of which 0.27 deg C was calculated to arise from the net radiative forcing of aerosols and ozone due to improved air quality. The results also show that the physics model captures 76% of the variance in the observed GMSTs, exhibiting a warming peak in October 2023 and predicting a gradual GMST reversal thereafter. The results from this study may greatly improve our understanding of global climate change and lead to the identifying of the correct major culprit for human contribution to changing the climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Observations and Theoretical Calculations of 11-Year Cyclic Variations in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Cooling

Observations and quantitative understanding of spatio-temporary variations in lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature can provide fingerprints for the mechanisms of ozone depletion and play an important role in testing the impact of non-halogen greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in climate models. Here we report from ground-based ozonesonde and satellite-based measurements since the 1960s and 1979 respectively that both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature display pronounced 11-year cyclic variations over Antarctica and mid-latitudes, while no apparent cyclic variations over the tropics. These observations were unexpected from the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) but predicted by the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) model of ozone depletion. Remarkably, no-parameter CRE theoretical calculations give the ozone loss vertical profile in perfect agreement with observations at the Antarctic Syowa station and excellently reproduce time-series variations of both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature in all global regions. Furthermore, the large lower-stratospheric ozone depletion over the tropics in the 1980s and 1990s is also reproduced by CRE calculations. Moreover, CRE calculations exhibit complex phenomena in future trends of lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature, which are strongly affected by the future trends of cosmic-ray fluxes. The latter might even lead to almost no recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica and no returning to the 1980 level over the tropics by 2100. The results also strikingly demonstrate that both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature are controlled by cosmic rays and ozone-depleting substances only. This study greatly improves quantitative understanding of ozone depletion and climate in the global lower stratosphere and offers new predictions on future trends.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2022

Universal Mechanism for Quantitative Understanding of Global Ozone Depletion

This paper formulates the cosmic-ray(CR)-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism to provide a quantitative understanding of global ozone depletion. Based on a proposed electrostatic bonding mechanism for charged-induced adsorption of molecules on surfaces and on the measured dissociative electron transfer (DET) cross sections of ozone depletion substances (ODSs) adsorbed on ice, an analytical equation is derived to give atmospheric chlorine atom concentration: $$[Cl] = \sum_i k^i θ_{ODS}^i Φ_e^2,$$ where $Φ_e$ is the CR-produced prehydrated electron ($e_{pre}^-$) flux on atmospheric particle surfaces, $θ_{ODS}^i$ is the surface coverage of an ODS, and $k^i$ is the ODS's effective DET coefficient comprising the DET cross section, lifetimes of surface-trapped $e_{pre}^-$ and Cl$^-$, and particle surface area density. With concentrations of ODSs as the sole variable, our calculated results of time-series ozone depletion rates in global regions in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s show generally good agreement with observations, particularly with ground-based ozonesonde data and satellite-measured data over Antarctica and with satellite data in the tropics in a narrow altitude band at 13-20 km. Good agreements with satellite data in the Arctic and midlatitudes are also found. A new insight into the denitrification effect on ozone loss is given quantitatively. But this equation overestimates tropospheric ozone loss at northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, likely due to increased ozone production by the halogen chemistry in polluted regions. Finally, ozone maps from ozonesonde data clearly reveal the scope of the tropical ozone hole. The results render confidence in applying the CRE equation to achieve a quantitative understanding of global ozone depletion.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2022

Major Contribution of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases to Global Surface Temperature Change

This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s with the removal of natural effects. In marked contrast, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) are observed and well explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results have provided strong evidence for the dominant warming mechanism of anthropogenic halogenated GHGs. The results also call for closer scrutiny of the assumptions made in current climate models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Observation of large and all-season ozone losses over the tropics

This paper reveals a large and all-season ozone hole in the lower stratosphere over the tropics (30degN-30degS) since the 1980s, where an O3 hole is defined as an area of O3 loss larger than 25% compared with the undisturbed atmosphere. The depth of this tropical O3 hole is comparable to that of the well-known springtime Antarctic O3 hole, whereas its area is about seven times that of the latter. Similar to the Antarctic O3 hole, approximately 80% of the normal O3 value is depleted at the center of the tropical O3 hole. The results strongly indicate that both Antarctic and tropical O3 holes must arise from an identical physical mechanism, for which the cosmic-ray-driven electron reaction (CRE) model shows good agreements with observations. The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a serious global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of Earth's surface area, home to approximately 50% of the world's population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three 'temperature holes' observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Fingerprints of the Cosmic Ray Driven Mechanism of the Ozone Hole

There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even over-kill ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with observed altitude profiles of severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since around 1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by >=10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by around 2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Reaction Cycles of Halogen Species in the Immune Defense: Implications for Human Health and Diseases and the Pathology and Treatment of COVID-19

There is no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for COVID-19. One current focus is drug repurposing research, but those drugs have limited therapeutic efficacies and known adverse effects. The pathology of COVID-19 is essentially unknown. It is therefore challenging to discover a successful treatment to be approved for clinical use. This paper addresses several key biological processes of reactive oxygen, halogen and nitrogen species (ROS, RHS and RNS) that play crucial physiological roles in organisms from plants to humans. These include why superoxide dismutases, the enzymes to catalyze the formation of H2O2, are required for protecting ROS-induced injury in cell metabolism, why the amount of ROS/RNS produced by ionizing radiation at clinically relevant doses is ~1000 fold lower than the endogenous ROS/RNS level routinely produced in the cell and why a low level of endogenous RHS plays a crucial role in phagocytosis for immune defense. Herein we propose a plausible amplification mechanism in immune defense: ozone-depleting-like halogen cyclic reactions enhancing RHS effects are responsible for all the mentioned physiological functions, which are activated by H2O2 and deactivated by NO signaling molecule. Our results show that the reaction cycles can be repeated thousands of times and amplify the RHS pathogen-killing (defense) effects by 100,000 fold in phagocytosis, resembling the cyclic ozone-depleting reactions in the stratosphere. It is unraveled that H2O2 is a required protective signaling molecule (angel) in the defense system for human health and its dysfunction can cause many diseases or conditions such as autoimmune disorders, aging and cancer. We also identify a class of potent drugs for effective treatment of invading pathogens such as HIV and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), cancer and other diseases, and provide a molecular mechanism of action of the drugs or candidates.

q-bio.CB↗

arXiv2013

Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogenated molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons-CFCs) on atmospheric O3 depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of CFCs for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets. For O3 loss, new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients >=0.92. After removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20~25% of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R=-0.05) between global surface temperature and CO2 concentration in 1850-1970. In contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with R=0.96-0.97 is found between global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases in 1970-2012. Further, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone lead to the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6 deg C in 1970-2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5~7 decades.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2012

On Cosmic-Ray-Driven Electron Reaction Mechanism for Ozone Hole and Chlorofluorocarbon Mechanism for Global Climate Change

Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and time correlations between polar ozone loss or stratospheric cooling and cosmic rays have shown strong evidence of the CRE mechanism [Q.-B. Lu, Phys. Rep. 487, 141-167(2010)]. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were also long-known greenhouse gases but were thought to play only a minor role in climate change. However, recent observations have shown evidence of the saturation in greenhouse effect of non-CFC gases. A new evaluation has shown that halocarbons alone (mainly CFCs) could account for the rise of 0.5~0.6 deg C in global surface temperature since 1950, leading to the striking conclusion that not CO2 but CFCs were the major culprit for global warming in the late half of the 20th century [Q.-B. Lu, J. Cosmology 8, 1846-1862(2010)]. Surprizingly, a recent paper [J.-W. Grooss and R. Muller, Atmos. Environ. 45, 3508-3514(2011)] has criticized these new findings by presenting "ACE-FTS satellite data". Here, I show that there exist serious problems with such "ACE-FTS satellite data" because the satellite has essentially not covered the Antarctic vortex in the presented months (especially winter months during which most effective CRE reactions are expected) and that the criticisms do not agree with the scientific facts in the literature. Instead, real data from multiple satellites provide strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. So far, the CRE mechanism is the only one that reproduces and predicts 11-year cyclic variations of ozone loss in the Antarctic O3 hole and of resultant stratospheric cooling, and the CFC mechanism can well explain both recent global warming and cooling. These findings should improve our understandings of the ozone hole and global climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗