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Qinghao Zhao

Publications and source records attributed to Qinghao Zhao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

EchoBridge: Long-Tail-Aware ECG-Echocardiography Text Alignment for Echocardiography-Derived Cardiac Findings

Standardized echocardiography conclusions provide meaningful supervision for learning ECG representations of echocardiography-derived cardiac findings. Global ECG--text alignment may entangle modality-specific factors, while long-tailed finding distributions provide sparse positive supervision for low-prevalence conditions. We propose EchoBridge with Complementary Shared--Private Projection (CSPP) and Adaptive Prototype Boundary Calibration (APBC). CSPP maps each modality into shared and auxiliary private projections, reduces directional redundancy via within-modality orthogonality, and bidirectionally aligns normalized shared projections. APBC organizes the shared hypersphere with class-specific prototypes, training-frequency-adaptive angular margins, and spherical Riesz repulsion. We evaluate EchoBridge on EchoNext-Mini and independent PKUPH and SHTMU cohorts under four protocols: prompt-based inference without downstream classifier training, in-domain frozen linear probing, target-domain cross-center frozen linear probing, and source-only cross-center transfer, supplemented by finding-specific analyses. EchoBridge improves classifier-free AUROC, AUPRC, and F1 over the strongest baselines by 7.88, 5.61, and 4.54 points, respectively, and achieves the highest point estimates across all in-domain and target-domain probing budgets and both source-only transfer cohorts. Finding-specific analyses show gains for most conditions, including several low-prevalence valvular findings.

cs.LG

ImputeECG: Deep Learning Reconstruction of Complete 12-Lead Electrocardiograms from Incomplete Recordings for Cardiac Assessment

Complete digital 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) are essential for AI-enabled cardiovascular assessment, yet many clinical ECG records, particularly those digitized from ECG images, remain incomplete because of short display formats, incomplete waveform digitization, lead loss, or signal corruption. We developed ImputeECG, a mask-conditioned one-dimensional Transformer autoencoder that completes 12-lead, 10-s ECGs while retaining all observed samples. The model was trained on PTB-XL and evaluated on PTB-XL and CPSC2018 under simulated incomplete settings, with additional real-world validation in a 43,633-record Kailuan clinical cohort after ECG image digitization. Metrics were computed over originally missing regions, with analyses of morphology and downstream diagnostic utility. On PTB-XL, ImputeECG reduced missing-region MAE by 41.7-51.0% and MSE by 54.0-63.7% versus the strongest baseline, with lower errors in R-peak timing, RR interval, QRS duration, QT interval, and P-wave, QRS-complex, and T-wave reconstruction. On CPSC2018, ImputeECG reduced MAE by 49.7-51.9%, supporting external generalization. In downstream multi-label classification, ImputeECG restored performance to 92.28% AUROC and 33.88% AUPRC in the most incomplete PTB-XL setting, approaching complete-ECG performance. On CPSC2018, completed ECGs achieved 94.75-95.89% AUROC and 78.83-81.86% AUPRC across settings. In Kailuan, ECG completion improved zero-shot sex prediction AUROC from 82.6% to 85.8% and reduced age prediction MAE from 10.72 to 9.87 years after image-based ECG digitization. These findings support ECG completion as a practical strategy for converting incomplete ECG records into AI-ready 12-lead, 10-s digital signals and extending the usable scope of ECG archives for digital cardiac assessment.

cs.LG

Wearable Single-Lead ECG Detects Fine-Grained Structural Heart Disease Through Echo-Report Supervision

Structural heart disease (SHD) is a primary driver of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality, yet early detection remains constrained by the limited accessibility of echocardiography. While single-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is ubiquitous through wearables, existing AI screening models often depend on 12-lead inputs, generalize poorly across institutions, or require massive, condition-specific labeled datasets. Recent work has demonstrated the feasibility of contrastive pre-training between single-lead ECGs and echocardiography reports within a single health system. Here, we present AnyECG-Echo, a framework that advance this paradigm toward clinical translation through three key developments: (1) evaluation in a geographically independent external cohort (n = 16,621); (2) diagnostic coverage of 13 fine-grained SHD subtypes spanning myocardial, chamber, valvular, and great-vessel pathologies; and (3) dual-axis mechanistic interpretability combining electrophysiology-grounded Shapley attribution with emergent correlations to quantitative measurements. Across validation cohorts totaling n = 25,222, the model demonstrated high AUROC for high-impact subtypes, including reduced left ventricular systolic function (AUROC 0.866-0.924), global heart enlargement (0.877-0.931), and mitral stenosis (0.836-0.906). Furthermore, we successfully validated the alignment of model outputs with established medical physiological traits, thereby enhancing interpretability. Notably, we discovered that AnyECG-Echo's outputs function as physiologically grounded digital biomarkers that accurately track objective metrics such as LVEF and myocardial wall thickness. These findings prove that wearable single-lead ECGs can effectively detect fine-grained structural heart disease, offering a practical solution for population-scale screening.

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Artificial intelligence-enabled single-lead ECG for non-invasive hyperkalemia detection: development, multicenter validation, and proof-of-concept deployment

Hyperkalemia is a life-threatening electrolyte disorder that is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and heart failure, yet frequent monitoring remains difficult outside hospital settings. We developed and validated Pocket-K, a single-lead AI-ECG system initialized from the ECGFounder foundation model for non-invasive hyperkalemia screening and handheld deployment. In this multicentre observational study using routinely collected clinical ECG and laboratory data, 34,439 patients contributed 62,290 ECG--potassium pairs. Lead I data were used to fine-tune the model. Data from Peking University People's Hospital were divided into development and temporal validation sets, and data from The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University served as an independent external validation set. Hyperkalemia was defined as venous serum potassium > 5.5 mmol/L. Pocket-K achieved AUROCs of 0.936 in internal testing, 0.858 in temporal validation, and 0.808 in external validation. For KDIGO-defined moderate-to-severe hyperkalemia (serum potassium >= 6.0 mmol/L), AUROCs increased to 0.940 and 0.861 in the temporal and external sets, respectively. External negative predictive value exceeded 99.3%. Model-predicted high risk below the hyperkalemia threshold was more common in patients with chronic kidney disease and heart failure. A handheld prototype enabled near-real-time inference, supporting future prospective evaluation in native handheld and wearable settings.

cs.LG

Aortic Valve Disease Screening from PPG via Physiology-Guided Self-Supervised Learning

Aortic valve disease (AVD) represents a major public health burden, while its diagnosis relies on echocardiography, which is limited by cost and specialist expertise, restricting scalable screening and risk stratification. Existing portable sensing modalities are constrained by indirect representations or acquisition dependencies. In this context, photoplethysmography (PPG), a widely available optical signal capturing peripheral hemodynamic dynamics, provides a scalable physiological measurement. However, the scarcity of clinically labeled PPG data severely constrains the development of effective data-driven models. To address this limitation, we propose Physiology-Guided Self-Supervised Learning (PG-SSL), leveraging approximately 170,000 unlabeled UK Biobank PPG recordings. PG-SSL constructs physiologically derived pseudo-labels based on clinically motivated waveform phenotypes associated with aortic stenosis (AS) and aortic regurgitation (AR), enabling large-scale pretraining without AVD-specific labels. Following fine-tuning on a small labeled cohort, the model achieved AUROCs of 0.8025 for AS and 0.7669 for AR. Further analyses demonstrated robustness under clinical confounding and covariate-balanced evaluation, as well as significant longitudinal associations with incident AVD events. This study demonstrates the feasibility of PG-SSL for leveraging large-scale unlabeled physiological signals under clinically labeled data-scarce conditions. The proposed approach provides a useful strategy for improving low-cost PPG-based screening and risk enrichment for clinically recognized AVD.

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AnyECG: Evolved ECG Foundation Model for Holistic Health Profiling

Background: Artificial intelligence enabled electrocardiography (AI-ECG) has demonstrated the ability to detect diverse pathologies, but most existing models focus on single disease identification, neglecting comorbidities and future risk prediction. Although ECGFounder expanded cardiac disease coverage, a holistic health profiling model remains needed. Methods: We constructed a large multicenter dataset comprising 13.3 million ECGs from 2.98 million patients. Using transfer learning, ECGFounder was fine-tuned to develop AnyECG, a foundation model for holistic health profiling. Performance was evaluated using external validation cohorts and a 10-year longitudinal cohort for current diagnosis, future risk prediction, and comorbidity identification. Results: AnyECG demonstrated systemic predictive capability across 1172 conditions, achieving an AUROC greater than 0.7 for 306 diseases. The model revealed novel disease associations, robust comorbidity patterns, and future disease risks. Representative examples included high diagnostic performance for hyperparathyroidism (AUROC 0.941), type 2 diabetes (0.803), Crohn disease (0.817), lymphoid leukemia (0.856), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.773). Conclusion: The AnyECG foundation model provides substantial evidence that AI-ECG can serve as a systemic tool for concurrent disease detection and long-term risk prediction.

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Fine-tuning an ECG Foundation Model to Predict Coronary CT Angiography Outcomes

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains a major global public health burden, yet scalable pre-imaging risk stratification tools are limited. In this multicenter study, we developed and validated an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography (AI-ECG) model using coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) as the anatomical reference to predict vessel-specific hemodynamically significant stenosis ($\geq 70\%$ for RCA, LAD, LCX; $\geq 50\%$ for LM). The model was evaluated in internal and external cohorts, clinically normal ECGs, and prespecified demographic and clinical subgroups. It showed discrimination across vessels in internal validation and consistent external and normal ECG performance. Predicted probabilities increased with CCTA-defined stenosis severity and were converted into vessel-specific low-, intermediate-, and high-risk strata. Calibration and decision curve analyses supported its clinical utility. Integration with guideline-based pre-test probability improved risk reclassification, enhanced rule-out performance, and reduced the gray-zone proportion. In longitudinal follow-up, model-defined risk groups showed clear separation in major adverse cardiovascular events. Waveform- and attribution-based analyses identified structured ECG differences and physiologically meaningful signal regions linked to high-risk predictions. These results support AI-ECG as a feasible tool for pre-imaging risk stratification and clinical triage, warranting prospective validation in broader clinical settings.

cs.CV

Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Spirometry for Early Detection of Right Heart Failure

Right heart failure (RHF) is a disease characterized by abnormalities in the structure or function of the right ventricle (RV), which is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Lung disease often causes increased right ventricular load, leading to RHF. Therefore, it is very important to screen out patients with cor pulmonale who develop RHF from people with underlying lung diseases. In this work, we propose a self-supervised representation learning method to early detecting RHF from patients with cor pulmonale, which uses spirogram time series to predict patients with RHF at an early stage. The proposed model is divided into two stages. The first stage is the self-supervised representation learning-based spirogram embedding (SLSE) network training process, where the encoder of the Variational autoencoder (VAE-encoder) learns a robust low-dimensional representation of the spirogram time series from the data-augmented unlabeled data. Second, this low-dimensional representation is fused with demographic information and fed into a CatBoost classifier for the downstream RHF prediction task. Trained and tested on a carefully selected subset of 26,617 individuals from the UK Biobank, our model achieved an AUROC of 0.7501 in detecting RHF, demonstrating strong population-level distinction ability. We further evaluated the model on high-risk clinical subgroups, achieving AUROC values of 0.8194 on a test set of 74 patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and 0.8413 on a set of 64 patients with valvular heart disease (VHD). These results highlight the model's potential utility in predicting RHF among clinically elevated-risk populations. In conclusion, this study presents a self-supervised representation learning approach combining spirogram time series and demographic data, demonstrating promising potential for early RHF detection in clinical practice.

cs.LG

AnyECG-Lab: An Exploration Study of Fine-tuning an ECG Foundation Model to Estimate Laboratory Values from Single-Lead ECG Signals

Timely access to laboratory values is critical for clinical decision-making, yet current approaches rely on invasive venous sampling and are intrinsically delayed. Electrocardiography (ECG), as a non-invasive and widely available signal, offers a promising modality for rapid laboratory estimation. Recent progress in deep learning has enabled the extraction of latent hematological signatures from ECGs. However, existing models are constrained by low signal-to-noise ratios, substantial inter-individual variability, limited data diversity, and suboptimal generalization, especially when adapted to low-lead wearable devices. In this work, we conduct an exploratory study leveraging transfer learning to fine-tune ECGFounder, a large-scale pre-trained ECG foundation model, on the Multimodal Clinical Monitoring in the Emergency Department (MC-MED) dataset from Stanford. We generated a corpus of more than 20 million standardized ten-second ECG segments to enhance sensitivity to subtle biochemical correlates. On internal validation, the model demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the curve above 0.65) for thirty-three laboratory indicators, moderate performance (between 0.55 and 0.65) for fifty-nine indicators, and limited performance (below 0.55) for sixteen indicators. This study provides an efficient artificial-intelligence driven solution and establishes the feasibility scope for real-time, non-invasive estimation of laboratory values.

cs.LG

Reconstructing 12-Lead ECG from 3-Lead ECG using Variational Autoencoder to Improve Cardiac Disease Detection of Wearable ECG Devices

Twelve-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) are the clinical gold standard for cardiac diagnosis, providing comprehensive spatial coverage of the heart necessary to detect conditions such as myocardial infarction (MI). However, their lack of portability limits continuous and large-scale use. Three-lead ECG systems are widely used in wearable devices due to their simplicity and mobility, but they often fail to capture pathologies in unmeasured regions. To address this, we propose WearECG, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) method that reconstructs twelve-lead ECGs from three leads: II, V1, and V5. Our model includes architectural improvements to better capture temporal and spatial dependencies in ECG signals. We evaluate generation quality using MSE, MAE, and Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and assess clinical validity via a Turing test with expert cardiologists. To further validate diagnostic utility, we fine-tune ECGFounder, a large-scale pretrained ECG model, on a multi-label classification task involving over 40 cardiac conditions, including six different myocardial infarction locations, using both real and generated signals. Experiments on the MIMIC dataset show that our method produces physiologically realistic and diagnostically informative signals, with robust performance in downstream tasks. This work demonstrates the potential of generative modeling for ECG reconstruction and its implications for scalable, low-cost cardiac screening.

cs.LG

Masked Training for Robust Arrhythmia Detection from Digitalized Multiple Layout ECG Images

Background: Electrocardiograms are indispensable for diagnosing cardiovascular diseases, yet in many settings they exist only as paper printouts stored in multiple recording layouts. Converting these images into digital signals introduces two key challenges: temporal asynchrony among leads and partial blackout missing, where contiguous signal segments become entirely unavailable. Existing models cannot adequately handle these concurrent problems while maintaining interpretability. Methods: We propose PatchECG, combining an adaptive variable block count missing learning mechanism with a masked training strategy. The model segments each lead into fixed-length patches, discards entirely missing patches, and encodes the remainder via a pluggable patch encoder. A disordered patch attention mechanism with patch-level temporal and lead embeddings captures cross-lead and temporal dependencies without interpolation. PatchECG was trained on PTB-XL and evaluated under seven simulated layout conditions, with external validation on 400 real ECG images from Chaoyang Hospital across three clinical layouts. Results: PatchECG achieves an average AUROC of approximately 0.835 across all simulated layouts. On the Chaoyang cohort, the model attains an overall AUROC of 0.778 for atrial fibrillation detection, rising to 0.893 on the 12x1 subset -- surpassing the pre-trained baseline by 0.111 and 0.190, respectively. Model attention aligns with cardiologist annotations at a rate approaching inter-clinician agreement. Conclusions: PatchECG provides a robust, interpolation-free, and interpretable solution for arrhythmia detection from digitized ECG images across diverse layouts. Its direct modeling of asynchronous and partially missing signals, combined with clinically aligned attention, positions it as a practical tool for cardiac diagnostics from legacy ECG archives in real-world clinical environments.

cs.LG

ECGTwin: Personalized ECG Generation Using Controllable Diffusion Model

Personalized electrocardiogram (ECG) generation is to simulate a patient's ECG digital twins tailored to specific conditions. It has the potential to transform traditional healthcare into a more accurate individualized paradigm, while preserving the key benefits of conventional population-level ECG synthesis. However, this promising task presents two fundamental challenges: extracting individual features without ground truth and injecting various types of conditions without confusing generative model. In this paper, we present ECGTwin, a two-stage framework designed to address these challenges. In the first stage, an Individual Base Extractor trained via contrastive learning robustly captures personal features from a reference ECG. In the second stage, the extracted individual features, along with a target cardiac condition, are integrated into the diffusion-based generation process through our novel AdaX Condition Injector, which injects these signals via two dedicated and specialized pathways. Both qualitative and quantitative experiments have demonstrated that our model can not only generate ECG signals of high fidelity and diversity by offering a fine-grained generation controllability, but also preserving individual-specific features. Furthermore, ECGTwin shows the potential to enhance ECG auto-diagnosis in downstream application, confirming the possibility of precise personalized healthcare solutions.

cs.LG

MEETI: A Multimodal ECG Dataset from MIMIC-IV-ECG with Signals, Images, Features and Interpretations

Electrocardiogram (ECG) plays a foundational role in modern cardiovascular care, enabling non-invasive diagnosis of arrhythmias, myocardial ischemia, and conduction disorders. While machine learning has achieved expert-level performance in ECG interpretation, the development of clinically deployable multimodal AI systems remains constrained, primarily due to the lack of publicly available datasets that simultaneously incorporate raw signals, diagnostic images, and interpretation text. Most existing ECG datasets provide only single-modality data or, at most, dual modalities, making it difficult to build models that can understand and integrate diverse ECG information in real-world settings. To address this gap, we introduce MEETI (MIMIC-IV-Ext ECG-Text-Image), the first large-scale ECG dataset that synchronizes raw waveform data, high-resolution plotted images, and detailed textual interpretations generated by large language models. In addition, MEETI includes beat-level quantitative ECG parameters extracted from each lead, offering structured parameters that support fine-grained analysis and model interpretability. Each MEETI record is aligned across four components: (1) the raw ECG waveform, (2) the corresponding plotted image, (3) extracted feature parameters, and (4) detailed interpretation text. This alignment is achieved using consistent, unique identifiers. This unified structure supports transformer-based multimodal learning and supports fine-grained, interpretable reasoning about cardiac health. By bridging the gap between traditional signal analysis, image-based interpretation, and language-driven understanding, MEETI established a robust foundation for the next generation of explainable, multimodal cardiovascular AI. It offers the research community a comprehensive benchmark for developing and evaluating ECG-based AI systems.

eess.SP

GEM: Empowering MLLM for Grounded ECG Understanding with Time Series and Images

While recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced automated ECG interpretation, they still face two key limitations: (1) insufficient multimodal synergy between time series signals and visual ECG representations, and (2) limited explainability in linking diagnoses to granular waveform evidence. We introduce GEM, the first MLLM unifying ECG time series, 12-lead ECG images and text for grounded and clinician-aligned ECG interpretation. GEM enables feature-grounded analysis, evidence-driven reasoning, and a clinician-like diagnostic process through three core innovations: a dual-encoder framework extracting complementary time series and image features, cross-modal alignment for effective multimodal understanding, and knowledge-guided instruction generation for generating high-granularity grounding data (ECG-Grounding) linking diagnoses to measurable parameters ($e.g.$, QRS/PR Intervals). Additionally, we propose the Grounded ECG Understanding task, a clinically motivated benchmark designed to comprehensively assess the MLLM's capability in grounded ECG understanding. Experimental results on both existing and our proposed benchmarks show GEM significantly improves predictive performance (CSN $7.4\% \uparrow$), explainability ($22.7\% \uparrow$), and grounding ($24.8\% \uparrow$), making it more suitable for real-world clinical applications. GitHub repository: https://github.com/lanxiang1017/GEM.git

cs.CL

On-device Computation of Single-lead ECG Parameters for Real-time Remote Cardiac Health Assessment: A Real-world Validation Study

Accurate, continuous out-of-hospital electrocardiogram (ECG) parameter measurement is vital for real-time cardiac health monitoring and telemedicine. On-device computation of single-lead ECG parameters enables timely assessment without reliance on centralized data processing, advancing personalized, ubiquitous cardiac care-yet comprehensive validation across heterogeneous real-world populations remains limited. This study validated the on-device algorithm FeatureDB (https://github.com/PKUDigitalHealth/FeatureDB) using two datasets: HeartVoice-ECG-lite (369 participants with single-lead ECGs annotated by two physicians) and PTB-XL/PTB-XL+ (21,354 patients with 12-lead ECGs and physicians' diagnostic annotations). FeatureDB computed PR, QT, and QTc intervals, with accuracy evaluated against physician annotations via mean absolute error (MAE), correlation analysis, and Bland-Altman analysis. Diagnostic performance for first-degree atrioventricular block (AVBI, PR-based) and long QT syndrome (LQT, QTc-based) was benchmarked against commercial 12-lead systems (12SL, Uni-G) and open-source algorithm Deli, using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results showed high concordance with expert annotations (Pearson correlations: 0.836-0.960), MAEs matching inter-observer variability, and minimal bias. AVBI AUC reached 0.787 (12SL: 0.859; Uni-G: 0.812; Deli: 0.501); LQT AUC was 0.684 (12SL: 0.716; Uni-G: 0.605; Deli: 0.569)-comparable to commercial tools and superior to open-source alternatives. FeatureDB delivers physician-level parameter accuracy and commercial-grade abnormality detection via single-lead devices, supporting scalable telemedicine, decentralized cardiac screening, and continuous monitoring in community and outpatient settings.

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Artificial Intelligence-derived Photoplethysmography Age as a Digital Biomarker for Cardiovascular Health

Background: Photoplethysmography (PPG), increasingly available through wearable devices, provides a non-invasive means of monitoring human hemodynamics. In this study, we introduce artificial intelligence-derived photoplethysmography (AI-PPG) age, a deep learning-based estimate of biological age from raw PPG signals, and evaluate its potential as a digital biomarker for cardiovascular health. Methods: We developed a deep learning model with a distribution-aware loss function to reduce bias from imbalanced data. The model was trained and evaluated on the UK Biobank cohort (N = 212,231). We analyzed the association between the AI-PPG age gap (AI-PPG age minus calendar age) and multiple cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes, assessed its longitudinal value using serial PPG measurements, and externally validated its generalizability in an independent MIMIC-III-derived cohort (N = 2,343). Results: After adjusting for key confounders, participants with an AI-PPG age gap greater than 9 years have a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (hazard ratio of 2.37, p = 8.46x10$^{-80}$), as well as seven secondary outcomes including coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction (all p < 0.005). Conversely, those with a gap below -9 years show a lower risk profile. Longitudinal analysis demonstrates that changes in AI-PPG age add predictive value over time. In the external validation cohort, each one-year increase in AI-PPG age gap is associated with higher in-hospital mortality (odds ratio of 1.02, p = 0.01). Conclusions: AI-PPG age is a scalable, non-invasive biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment. Integrated with wearable devices, it may enable population-level screening, personalized monitoring, and early intervention.

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Deep Imbalanced Regression to Estimate Vascular Age from PPG Data: a Novel Digital Biomarker for Cardiovascular Health

Photoplethysmography (PPG) is emerging as a crucial tool for monitoring human hemodynamics, with recent studies highlighting its potential in assessing vascular aging through deep learning. However, real-world age distributions are often imbalanced, posing significant challenges for deep learning models. In this paper, we introduce a novel, simple, and effective loss function named the Dist Loss to address deep imbalanced regression tasks. We trained a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (Net1D) incorporating the Dist Loss on the extensive UK Biobank dataset (n=502,389) to estimate vascular age from PPG signals and validate its efficacy in characterizing cardiovascular health. The model's performance was validated on a 40% held-out test set, achieving state-of-the-art results, especially in regions with small sample sizes. Furthermore, we divided the population into three subgroups based on the difference between predicted vascular age and chronological age: less than -10 years, between -10 and 10 years, and greater than 10 years. We analyzed the relationship between predicted vascular age and several cardiovascular events over a follow-up period of up to 10 years, including death, coronary heart disease, and heart failure. Our results indicate that the predicted vascular age has significant potential to reflect an individual's cardiovascular health status. Our code will be available at https://github.com/Ngk03/AI-vascular-age.

cs.CV

Deep Learning for Detecting and Early Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease from Spirogram Time Series

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a chronic lung condition characterized by airflow obstruction. Current diagnostic methods primarily rely on identifying prominent features in spirometry (Volume-Flow time series) to detect COPD, but they are not adept at predicting future COPD risk based on subtle data patterns. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning-based approach, DeepSpiro, aimed at the early prediction of future COPD risk. DeepSpiro consists of four key components: SpiroSmoother for stabilizing the Volume-Flow curve, SpiroEncoder for capturing volume variability-pattern through key patches of varying lengths, SpiroExplainer for integrating heterogeneous data and explaining predictions through volume attention, and SpiroPredictor for predicting the disease risk of undiagnosed high-risk patients based on key patch concavity, with prediction horizons of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years, or even longer. Evaluated on the UK Biobank dataset, DeepSpiro achieved an AUC of 0.8328 for COPD detection and demonstrated strong predictive performance for future COPD risk (p-value < 0.001). In summary, DeepSpiro can effectively predicts the long-term progression of the COPD disease.

cs.LG