arXiv subjects

Qingsong Wen

Publications and source records attributed to Qingsong Wen.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Developing and Deploying Industry Standards for Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED): Challenges, Strategies, and Future Directions

The adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) holds the promise of revolutionizing educational practices by offering personalized learning experiences, automating administrative and pedagogical tasks, and reducing the cost of content creation. However, the lack of standardized practices in the development and deployment of AIED solutions has led to fragmented ecosystems, which presents challenges in interoperability, scalability, and ethical governance. This article aims to address the critical need to develop and implement industry standards in AIED, offering a comprehensive analysis of the current landscape, challenges, and strategic approaches to overcome these obstacles. We begin by examining the various applications of AIED in various educational settings and identify key areas lacking in standardization, including system interoperability, ontology mapping, data integration, evaluation, and ethical governance. Then, we propose a multi-tiered framework for establishing robust industry standards for AIED. In addition, we discuss methodologies for the iterative development and deployment of standards, incorporating feedback loops from real-world applications to refine and adapt standards over time. The paper also highlights the role of emerging technologies and pedagogical theories in shaping future standards for AIED. Finally, we outline a strategic roadmap for stakeholders to implement these standards, fostering a cohesive and ethical AIED ecosystem. By establishing comprehensive industry standards, such as those by IEEE Artificial Intelligence Standards Committee (AISC) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO), we can accelerate and scale AIED solutions to improve educational outcomes, ensuring that technological advances align with the principles of inclusivity, fairness, and educational excellence.

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arXiv2024

UrbanCLIP: Learning Text-enhanced Urban Region Profiling with Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining from the Web

Urban region profiling from web-sourced data is of utmost importance for urban planning and sustainable development. We are witnessing a rising trend of LLMs for various fields, especially dealing with multi-modal data research such as vision-language learning, where the text modality serves as a supplement information for the image. Since textual modality has never been introduced into modality combinations in urban region profiling, we aim to answer two fundamental questions in this paper: i) Can textual modality enhance urban region profiling? ii) and if so, in what ways and with regard to which aspects? To answer the questions, we leverage the power of Large Language Models (LLMs) and introduce the first-ever LLM-enhanced framework that integrates the knowledge of textual modality into urban imagery profiling, named LLM-enhanced Urban Region Profiling with Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (UrbanCLIP). Specifically, it first generates a detailed textual description for each satellite image by an open-source Image-to-Text LLM. Then, the model is trained on the image-text pairs, seamlessly unifying natural language supervision for urban visual representation learning, jointly with contrastive loss and language modeling loss. Results on predicting three urban indicators in four major Chinese metropolises demonstrate its superior performance, with an average improvement of 6.1% on R^2 compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Our code and the image-language dataset will be released upon paper notification.

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arXiv2024

Addressing Concept Shift in Online Time Series Forecasting: Detect-then-Adapt

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$.

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arXiv2024

Learning Multi-Pattern Normalities in the Frequency Domain for Efficient Time Series Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection significantly enhances the robustness of cloud systems. While neural network-based methods have recently demonstrated strong advantages, they encounter practical challenges in cloud environments: the contradiction between the impracticality of maintaining a unique model for each service and the limited ability to deal with diverse normal patterns by a unified model, as well as issues with handling heavy traffic in real time and short-term anomaly detection sensitivity. Thus, we propose MACE, a multi-normal-pattern accommodated and efficient anomaly detection method in the frequency domain for time series anomaly detection. There are three novel characteristics of it: (i) a pattern extraction mechanism excelling at handling diverse normal patterns with a unified model, which enables the model to identify anomalies by examining the correlation between the data sample and its service normal pattern, instead of solely focusing on the data sample itself; (ii) a dualistic convolution mechanism that amplifies short-term anomalies in the time domain and hinders the reconstruction of anomalies in the frequency domain, which enlarges the reconstruction error disparity between anomaly and normality and facilitates anomaly detection; (iii) leveraging the sparsity and parallelism of frequency domain to enhance model efficiency. We theoretically and experimentally prove that using a strategically selected subset of Fourier bases can not only reduce computational overhead but is also profitable to distinguish anomalies, compared to using the complete spectrum. Moreover, extensive experiments demonstrate MACE's effectiveness in handling diverse normal patterns with a unified model and it achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency.

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arXiv2024

Online GNN Evaluation Under Test-time Graph Distribution Shifts

Evaluating the performance of a well-trained GNN model on real-world graphs is a pivotal step for reliable GNN online deployment and serving. Due to a lack of test node labels and unknown potential training-test graph data distribution shifts, conventional model evaluation encounters limitations in calculating performance metrics (e.g., test error) and measuring graph data-level discrepancies, particularly when the training graph used for developing GNNs remains unobserved during test time. In this paper, we study a new research problem, online GNN evaluation, which aims to provide valuable insights into the well-trained GNNs's ability to effectively generalize to real-world unlabeled graphs under the test-time graph distribution shifts. Concretely, we develop an effective learning behavior discrepancy score, dubbed LeBeD, to estimate the test-time generalization errors of well-trained GNN models. Through a novel GNN re-training strategy with a parameter-free optimality criterion, the proposed LeBeD comprehensively integrates learning behavior discrepancies from both node prediction and structure reconstruction perspectives. This enables the effective evaluation of the well-trained GNNs' ability to capture test node semantics and structural representations, making it an expressive metric for estimating the generalization error in online GNN evaluation. Extensive experiments on real-world test graphs under diverse graph distribution shifts could verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, revealing its strong correlation with ground-truth test errors on various well-trained GNN models.

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arXiv2024

DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have emerged as the dominant model for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Despite their success, they fail to model intrinsic uncertainties within STG data, which cripples their practicality in downstream tasks for decision-making. To this end, this paper focuses on probabilistic STG forecasting, which is challenging due to the difficulty in modeling uncertainties and complex ST dependencies. In this study, we present the first attempt to generalize the popular denoising diffusion probabilistic models to STGs, leading to a novel non-autoregressive framework called DiffSTG, along with the first denoising network UGnet for STG in the framework. Our approach combines the spatio-temporal learning capabilities of STGNNs with the uncertainty measurements of diffusion models. Extensive experiments validate that DiffSTG reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by 4%-14%, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 2%-7% over existing methods on three real-world datasets.

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arXiv2024

PDETime: Rethinking Long-Term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from the perspective of partial differential equations

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on historical-value-based models, which rely on past observations to predict future series. Notably, a new trend has emerged with time-index-based models, offering a more nuanced understanding of the continuous dynamics underlying time series. Unlike these two types of models that aggregate the information of spatial domains or temporal domains, in this paper, we consider multivariate time series as spatiotemporal data regularly sampled from a continuous dynamical system, which can be represented by partial differential equations (PDEs), with the spatial domain being fixed. Building on this perspective, we present PDETime, a novel LMTF model inspired by the principles of Neural PDE solvers, following the encoding-integration-decoding operations. Our extensive experimentation across seven diverse real-world LMTF datasets reveals that PDETime not only adapts effectively to the intrinsic spatiotemporal nature of the data but also sets new benchmarks, achieving state-of-the-art results

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arXiv2024

LARA: A Light and Anti-overfitting Retraining Approach for Unsupervised Time Series Anomaly Detection

Most of current anomaly detection models assume that the normal pattern remains same all the time. However, the normal patterns of Web services change dramatically and frequently. The model trained on old-distribution data is outdated after such changes. Retraining the whole model every time is expensive. Besides, at the beginning of normal pattern changes, there is not enough observation data from the new distribution. Retraining a large neural network model with limited data is vulnerable to overfitting. Thus, we propose a Light and Anti-overfitting Retraining Approach (LARA) for deep variational auto-encoder based time series anomaly detection methods (VAEs). This work aims to make three novel contributions: 1) the retraining process is formulated as a convex problem and can converge at a fast rate as well as prevent overfitting; 2) designing a ruminate block, which leverages the historical data without the need to store them; 3) mathematically proving that when fine-tuning the latent vector and reconstructed data, the linear formations can achieve the least adjusting errors between the ground truths and the fine-tuned ones. Moreover, we have performed many experiments to verify that retraining LARA with even 43 time slots of data from new distribution can result in its competitive F1 Score in comparison with the state-of-the-art anomaly detection models trained with sufficient data. Besides, we verify its light overhead.

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arXiv2024

CARD: Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

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arXiv2024

RobustTSF: Towards Theory and Design of Robust Time Series Forecasting with Anomalies

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.

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arXiv2024

Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

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arXiv2024

Explaining Time Series via Contrastive and Locally Sparse Perturbations

Explaining multivariate time series is a compound challenge, as it requires identifying important locations in the time series and matching complex temporal patterns. Although previous saliency-based methods addressed the challenges, their perturbation may not alleviate the distribution shift issue, which is inevitable especially in heterogeneous samples. We present ContraLSP, a locally sparse model that introduces counterfactual samples to build uninformative perturbations but keeps distribution using contrastive learning. Furthermore, we incorporate sample-specific sparse gates to generate more binary-skewed and smooth masks, which easily integrate temporal trends and select the salient features parsimoniously. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ContraLSP outperforms state-of-the-art models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/zichuan-liu/ContraLSP}.

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arXiv2024

EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processes

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

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arXiv2023

Load Data Valuation in Multi-Energy Systems: An End-to-End Approach

Accurate load forecasting serves as the foundation for the flexible operation of multi-energy systems (MES). Multi-energy loads are tightly coupled and exhibit significant uncertainties. Many works focus on enhancing forecasting accuracy by leveraging cross-sector information. However, data owners may not be motivated to share their data unless it leads to substantial benefits. Ensuring a reasonable data valuation can encourage them to share their data willingly. This paper presents an end-to-end framework to quantify multi-energy load data value by integrating forecasting and decision processes. To address optimization problems with integer variables, a two-stage end-to-end model solution is proposed. Moreover, a profit allocation strategy based on contribution to cost savings is investigated to encourage data sharing in MES. The experimental results demonstrate a significant decrease in operation costs, suggesting that the proposed valuation approach more effectively extracts the inherent data value than traditional methods. According to the proposed incentive mechanism, all sectors can benefit from data sharing by improving forecasting accuracy or receiving economic compensation.

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arXiv2023

ADGym: Design Choices for Deep Anomaly Detection

Deep learning (DL) techniques have recently found success in anomaly detection (AD) across various fields such as finance, medical services, and cloud computing. However, most of the current research tends to view deep AD algorithms as a whole, without dissecting the contributions of individual design choices like loss functions and network architectures. This view tends to diminish the value of preliminary steps like data preprocessing, as more attention is given to newly designed loss functions, network architectures, and learning paradigms. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by asking two key questions: (i) Which design choices in deep AD methods are crucial for detecting anomalies? (ii) How can we automatically select the optimal design choices for a given AD dataset, instead of relying on generic, pre-existing solutions? To address these questions, we introduce ADGym, a platform specifically crafted for comprehensive evaluation and automatic selection of AD design elements in deep methods. Our extensive experiments reveal that relying solely on existing leading methods is not sufficient. In contrast, models developed using ADGym significantly surpass current state-of-the-art techniques.

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arXiv2023

DCdetector: Dual Attention Contrastive Representation Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection

Time series anomaly detection is critical for a wide range of applications. It aims to identify deviant samples from the normal sample distribution in time series. The most fundamental challenge for this task is to learn a representation map that enables effective discrimination of anomalies. Reconstruction-based methods still dominate, but the representation learning with anomalies might hurt the performance with its large abnormal loss. On the other hand, contrastive learning aims to find a representation that can clearly distinguish any instance from the others, which can bring a more natural and promising representation for time series anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose DCdetector, a multi-scale dual attention contrastive representation learning model. DCdetector utilizes a novel dual attention asymmetric design to create the permutated environment and pure contrastive loss to guide the learning process, thus learning a permutation invariant representation with superior discrimination abilities. Extensive experiments show that DCdetector achieves state-of-the-art results on multiple time series anomaly detection benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/KDD2023-DCdetector.

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arXiv2023

OneNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting Models under Concept Drift by Online Ensembling

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose \textbf{On}line \textbf{e}nsembling \textbf{Net}work (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than $\mathbf{50\%}$ compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet}.

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arXiv2023

SaDI: A Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable Framework for Electric Load Forecasting under Extreme Events

Accurate prediction of electric load is crucial in power grid planning and management. In this paper, we solve the electric load forecasting problem under extreme events such as scorching heats. One challenge for accurate forecasting is the lack of training samples under extreme conditions. Also load usually changes dramatically in these extreme conditions, which calls for interpretable model to make better decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting framework, named Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable framework~(SaDI), which ensembles long-term trend, short-term trend, and period modelings to capture temporal characteristics in different components. The external variable triggered loss is proposed for the imbalanced learning under extreme events. Furthermore, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is employed in the framework for desirable interpretability. The experiments on both Central China electric load and public energy meters from buildings show that the proposed SaDI framework achieves average 22.14% improvement compared with the current state-of-the-art algorithms in forecasting under extreme events in terms of daily mean of normalized RMSE. Code, Public datasets, and Appendix are available at: https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.9696980.v1 .

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