arXiv subjects

Qingsong Wen

Publications and source records attributed to Qingsong Wen.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Mind Scramble: Unveiling Large Language Model Psychology Via Typoglycemia

Research into the external behaviors and internal mechanisms of large language models (LLMs) has shown promise in addressing complex tasks in the physical world. Studies suggest that powerful LLMs, like GPT-4, are beginning to exhibit human-like cognitive abilities, including planning, reasoning, and reflection. In this paper, we introduce a research line and methodology called LLM Psychology, leveraging human psychology experiments to investigate the cognitive behaviors and mechanisms of LLMs. We migrate the Typoglycemia phenomenon from psychology to explore the "mind" of LLMs. Unlike human brains, which rely on context and word patterns to comprehend scrambled text, LLMs use distinct encoding and decoding processes. Through Typoglycemia experiments at the character, word, and sentence levels, we observe: (I) LLMs demonstrate human-like behaviors on a macro scale, such as lower task accuracy and higher token/time consumption; (II) LLMs exhibit varying robustness to scrambled input, making Typoglycemia a benchmark for model evaluation without new datasets; (III) Different task types have varying impacts, with complex logical tasks (e.g., math) being more challenging in scrambled form; (IV) Each LLM has a unique and consistent "cognitive pattern" across tasks, revealing general mechanisms in its psychology process. We provide an in-depth analysis of hidden layers to explain these phenomena, paving the way for future research in LLM Psychology and deeper interpretability.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

NetSafe: Exploring the Topological Safety of Multi-agent Networks

Large language models (LLMs) have empowered nodes within multi-agent networks with intelligence, showing growing applications in both academia and industry. However, how to prevent these networks from generating malicious information remains unexplored with previous research on single LLM's safety be challenging to transfer. In this paper, we focus on the safety of multi-agent networks from a topological perspective, investigating which topological properties contribute to safer networks. To this end, we propose a general framework, NetSafe along with an iterative RelCom interaction to unify existing diverse LLM-based agent frameworks, laying the foundation for generalized topological safety research. We identify several critical phenomena when multi-agent networks are exposed to attacks involving misinformation, bias, and harmful information, termed as Agent Hallucination and Aggregation Safety. Furthermore, we find that highly connected networks are more susceptible to the spread of adversarial attacks, with task performance in a Star Graph Topology decreasing by 29.7%. Besides, our proposed static metrics aligned more closely with real-world dynamic evaluations than traditional graph-theoretic metrics, indicating that networks with greater average distances from attackers exhibit enhanced safety. In conclusion, our work introduces a new topological perspective on the safety of LLM-based multi-agent networks and discovers several unreported phenomena, paving the way for future research to explore the safety of such networks.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Abnormality Forecasting: Time Series Anomaly Prediction via Future Context Modeling

Identifying anomalies from time series data plays an important role in various fields such as infrastructure security, intelligent operation and maintenance, and space exploration. Current research focuses on detecting the anomalies after they occur, which can lead to significant financial/reputation loss or infrastructure damage. In this work we instead study a more practical yet very challenging problem, time series anomaly prediction, aiming at providing early warnings for abnormal events before their occurrence. To tackle this problem, we introduce a novel principled approach, namely future context modeling (FCM). Its key insight is that the future abnormal events in a target window can be accurately predicted if their preceding observation window exhibits any subtle difference to normal data. To effectively capture such differences, FCM first leverages long-term forecasting models to generate a discriminative future context based on the observation data, aiming to amplify those subtle but unusual difference. It then models a normality correlation of the observation data with the forecasting future context to complement the normality modeling of the observation data in foreseeing possible abnormality in the target window. A joint variate-time attention learning is also introduced in FCM to leverage both temporal signals and features of the time series data for more discriminative normality modeling in the aforementioned two views. Comprehensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that FCM gains good recall rate (70\%+) on multiple datasets and significantly outperforms all baselines in F1 score. Code is available at https://github.com/mala-lab/FCM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Task-oriented Time Series Imputation Evaluation via Generalized Representers

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Toward Physics-guided Time Series Embedding

In various scientific and engineering fields, the primary research areas have revolved around physics-based dynamical systems modeling and data-driven time series analysis. According to the embedding theory, dynamical systems and time series can be mutually transformed using observation functions and physical reconstruction techniques. Based on this, we propose Embedding Duality Theory, where the parameterized embedding layer essentially provides a linear estimation of the non-linear time series dynamics. This theory enables us to bypass the parameterized embedding layer and directly employ physical reconstruction techniques to acquire a data embedding representation. Utilizing physical priors results in a 10X reduction in parameters, a 3X increase in speed, and maximum performance boosts of 18% in expert, 22% in few-shot, and 53\% in zero-shot tasks without any hyper-parameter tuning. All methods are encapsulated as a plug-and-play module

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Time-FFM: Towards LM-Empowered Federated Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains. Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances. To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs. Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens. To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially. Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

NuwaTS: a Foundation Model Mending Every Incomplete Time Series

Time series imputation is critical for many real-world applications and has been widely studied. However, existing models often require specialized designs tailored to specific missing patterns, variables, or domains which limits their generalizability. In addition, current evaluation frameworks primarily focus on domain-specific tasks and often rely on time-wise train/validation/test data splits, which fail to rigorously assess a model's ability to generalize across unseen variables or domains. In this paper, we present \textbf{NuwaTS}, a novel framework that repurposes Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) for general time series imputation. Once trained, NuwaTS can be applied to impute missing data across any domain. We introduce specialized embeddings for each sub-series patch, capturing information about the patch, its missing data patterns, and its statistical characteristics. By combining contrastive learning with the imputation task, we train PLMs to create a versatile, one-for-all imputation model. Additionally, we employ a plug-and-play fine-tuning approach, enabling efficient adaptation to domain-specific tasks with minimal adjustments. To evaluate cross-variable and cross-domain generalization, we propose a new benchmarking protocol that partitions the datasets along the variable dimension. Experimental results on over seventeen million time series samples from diverse domains demonstrate that NuwaTS outperforms state-of-the-art domain-specific models across various datasets under the proposed benchmarking protocol. Furthermore, we show that NuwaTS generalizes to other time series tasks, such as forecasting. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Chengyui/NuwaTS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization for Time Series Forecasting under Distribution Shifts

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Pathformer: Multi-scale Transformers with Adaptive Pathways for Time Series Forecasting

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

LogoRA: Local-Global Representation Alignment for Robust Time Series Classification

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) of time series aims to teach models to identify consistent patterns across various temporal scenarios, disregarding domain-specific differences, which can maintain their predictive accuracy and effectively adapt to new domains. However, existing UDA methods struggle to adequately extract and align both global and local features in time series data. To address this issue, we propose the Local-Global Representation Alignment framework (LogoRA), which employs a two-branch encoder, comprising a multi-scale convolutional branch and a patching transformer branch. The encoder enables the extraction of both local and global representations from time series. A fusion module is then introduced to integrate these representations, enhancing domain-invariant feature alignment from multi-scale perspectives. To achieve effective alignment, LogoRA employs strategies like invariant feature learning on the source domain, utilizing triplet loss for fine alignment and dynamic time warping-based feature alignment. Additionally, it reduces source-target domain gaps through adversarial training and per-class prototype alignment. Our evaluations on four time-series datasets demonstrate that LogoRA outperforms strong baselines by up to $12.52\%$, showcasing its superiority in time series UDA tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

RAGLAB: A Modular and Research-Oriented Unified Framework for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate human-level capabilities in dialogue, reasoning, and knowledge retention. However, even the most advanced LLMs face challenges such as hallucinations and real-time updating of their knowledge. Current research addresses this bottleneck by equipping LLMs with external knowledge, a technique known as Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG). However, two key issues constrained the development of RAG. First, there is a growing lack of comprehensive and fair comparisons between novel RAG algorithms. Second, open-source tools such as LlamaIndex and LangChain employ high-level abstractions, which results in a lack of transparency and limits the ability to develop novel algorithms and evaluation metrics. To close this gap, we introduce RAGLAB, a modular and research-oriented open-source library. RAGLAB reproduces 6 existing algorithms and provides a comprehensive ecosystem for investigating RAG algorithms. Leveraging RAGLAB, we conduct a fair comparison of 6 RAG algorithms across 10 benchmarks. With RAGLAB, researchers can efficiently compare the performance of various algorithms and develop novel algorithms.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning for Spatiotemporal Time Series Forecasting

Spatiotemporal time series forecasting plays a key role in a wide range of real-world applications. While significant progress has been made in this area, fully capturing and leveraging spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains a fundamental challenge. Therefore, we propose a novel Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning scheme. Specifically, our approach implicitly captures spatiotemporal heterogeneity through learning spatial and temporal embeddings, which can be viewed as a clustering process. Then, a novel spatiotemporal meta-parameter learning paradigm is proposed to learn spatiotemporal-specific parameters from meta-parameter pools, which is informed by the captured heterogeneity. Based on these ideas, we develop a Heterogeneity-Informed Spatiotemporal Meta-Network (HimNet) for spatiotemporal time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on five widely-used benchmarks demonstrate our method achieves state-of-the-art performance while exhibiting superior interpretability. Our code is available at https://github.com/XDZhelheim/HimNet.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

DiffLoad: Uncertainty Quantification in Electrical Load Forecasting with the Diffusion Model

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making for power systems, including unit commitment and economic dispatch. The integration of renewable energy sources and the occurrence of external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have rapidly increased uncertainties in load forecasting. The uncertainties in load forecasting can be divided into two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. Separating these types of uncertainties can help decision-makers better understand where and to what extent the uncertainty is, thereby enhancing their confidence in the following decision-making. This paper proposes a diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure to estimate epistemic uncertainty and employs the robust additive Cauchy distribution to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. Our method not only ensures the accuracy of load forecasting but also demonstrates the ability to separate the two types of uncertainties and be applicable to different levels of loads. The relevant code can be found at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DiffLoad-4714/}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Time Series Analysis for Education: Methods, Applications, and Future Directions

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

LogParser-LLM: Advancing Efficient Log Parsing with Large Language Models

Logs are ubiquitous digital footprints, playing an indispensable role in system diagnostics, security analysis, and performance optimization. The extraction of actionable insights from logs is critically dependent on the log parsing process, which converts raw logs into structured formats for downstream analysis. Yet, the complexities of contemporary systems and the dynamic nature of logs pose significant challenges to existing automatic parsing techniques. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLM) offers new horizons. With their expansive knowledge and contextual prowess, LLMs have been transformative across diverse applications. Building on this, we introduce LogParser-LLM, a novel log parser integrated with LLM capabilities. This union seamlessly blends semantic insights with statistical nuances, obviating the need for hyper-parameter tuning and labeled training data, while ensuring rapid adaptability through online parsing. Further deepening our exploration, we address the intricate challenge of parsing granularity, proposing a new metric and integrating human interactions to allow users to calibrate granularity to their specific needs. Our method's efficacy is empirically demonstrated through evaluations on the Loghub-2k and the large-scale LogPub benchmark. In evaluations on the LogPub benchmark, involving an average of 3.6 million logs per dataset across 14 datasets, our LogParser-LLM requires only 272.5 LLM invocations on average, achieving a 90.6% F1 score for grouping accuracy and an 81.1% for parsing accuracy. These results demonstrate the method's high efficiency and accuracy, outperforming current state-of-the-art log parsers, including pattern-based, neural network-based, and existing LLM-enhanced approaches.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2024

A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Cluster-Wide Task Slowdown Detection in Cloud System

Slow task detection is a critical problem in cloud operation and maintenance since it is highly related to user experience and can bring substantial liquidated damages. Most anomaly detection methods detect it from a single-task aspect. However, considering millions of concurrent tasks in large-scale cloud computing clusters, it becomes impractical and inefficient. Moreover, single-task slowdowns are very common and do not necessarily indicate a malfunction of a cluster due to its violent fluctuation nature in a virtual environment. Thus, we shift our attention to cluster-wide task slowdowns by utilizing the duration time distribution of tasks across a cluster, so that the computation complexity is not relevant to the number of tasks. The task duration time distribution often exhibits compound periodicity and local exceptional fluctuations over time. Though transformer-based methods are one of the most powerful methods to capture these time series normal variation patterns, we empirically find and theoretically explain the flaw of the standard attention mechanism in reconstructing subperiods with low amplitude when dealing with compound periodicity. To tackle these challenges, we propose SORN (i.e., Skimming Off subperiods in descending amplitude order and Reconstructing Non-slowing fluctuation), which consists of a Skimming Attention mechanism to reconstruct the compound periodicity and a Neural Optimal Transport module to distinguish cluster-wide slowdowns from other exceptional fluctuations. Furthermore, since anomalies in the training set are inevitable in a practical scenario, we propose a picky loss function, which adaptively assigns higher weights to reliable time slots in the training set. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SORN outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world industrial datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

RCAgent: Cloud Root Cause Analysis by Autonomous Agents with Tool-Augmented Large Language Models

Large language model (LLM) applications in cloud root cause analysis (RCA) have been actively explored recently. However, current methods are still reliant on manual workflow settings and do not unleash LLMs' decision-making and environment interaction capabilities. We present RCAgent, a tool-augmented LLM autonomous agent framework for practical and privacy-aware industrial RCA usage. Running on an internally deployed model rather than GPT families, RCAgent is capable of free-form data collection and comprehensive analysis with tools. Our framework combines a variety of enhancements, including a unique Self-Consistency for action trajectories, and a suite of methods for context management, stabilization, and importing domain knowledge. Our experiments show RCAgent's evident and consistent superiority over ReAct across all aspects of RCA -- predicting root causes, solutions, evidence, and responsibilities -- and tasks covered or uncovered by current rules, as validated by both automated metrics and human evaluations. Furthermore, RCAgent has already been integrated into the diagnosis and issue discovery workflow of the Real-time Compute Platform for Apache Flink of Alibaba Cloud.

cs.SE↗