arXiv subjects

Qiuhua Huang

Publications and source records attributed to Qiuhua Huang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Statistical Framework for District Energy Long-term Electric Load Forecasting

An accurate forecast of electric demand is essential for the optimal design of a generation system. For district installations, the projected lifespan may extend one or two decades. The reliance on a single-year forecast, combined with a fixed load growth rate, is the current industry standard, but does not support a multi-decade investment. Existing work on long-term forecasting focuses on annual growth rate and/or uses time resolution that is coarser than hourly. To address the gap, we propose multiple statistical forecast models, verified over as long as an 11-year horizon. Combining demand data, weather data, and occupancy trends results in a hybrid statistical model, i.e., generalized additive model (GAM) with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) of the GAM residuals, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model, and a GAM with ARIMA errors model. We evaluate accuracy based on: (i) annual growth rates of monthly peak loads; (ii) annual growth rates of overall energy consumption; (iii) preservation of daily, weekly, and month-to-month trends that occur within each year, known as the 'seasonality' of the data; and, (iv) realistic representation of demand for a full range of weather and occupancy conditions. For example, the models yield an 11-year forecast from a one-year training data set with a normalized root mean square error of 9.091%, a six-year forecast from a one-year training data set with a normalized root mean square error of 8.949%, and a one-year forecast from a 1.2-year training data set with a normalized root mean square error of 6.765%.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Transmission Line Outage Probability Prediction Under Extreme Events Using Peter-Clark Bayesian Structural Learning

Recent years have seen a notable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. With a rising number of power outages caused by these events, accurate prediction of power line outages is essential for safe and reliable operation of power grids. The Bayesian network is a probabilistic model that is very effective for predicting line outages under weather-related uncertainties. However, most existing studies in this area offer general risk assessments, but fall short of providing specific outage probabilities. In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting transmission line outage probabilities using a Bayesian network combined with Peter-Clark (PC) structural learning. Our approach not only enables precise outage probability calculations, but also demonstrates better scalability and robust performance, even with limited data. Case studies using data from BPA and NOAA show the effectiveness of this approach, while comparisons with several existing methods further highlight its advantages.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Differential Predictive Control of Residential Building HVACs for Maximizing Renewable Local Consumption and Supporting Fast Voltage Control

High penetration of distributed energy resources in distribution systems, such as rooftop solar PVs, has caused voltage fluctuations which are much faster than typical voltage control devices can react to, leading to increased operation cost and reduced equipment life. Residential buildings consume about 35% of the electricity in U.S. and are co-located with rooftop solar PV. Thus, they present an opportunity to mitigate these fluctuations locally, while benefiting both the grid and building owners. Previous works on DER-aware localized building energy management mostly focus on commercial buildings and analyzing impacts either on buildings or the grid. To fill the gaps, this paper proposes a distributed, differential predictive control scheme for residential HVAC systems for maximizing renewable local consumption. In addition, a detailed controller-building-grid co-simulation platform is developed and utilized for analyzing the potential impacts of the proposed control scheme on both the buildings and distribution system. Our studies show that the proposed method can provide benefits to both the buildings' owners and the distribution system by reducing energy draw from the grid by 12%, voltage violations and fast fluctuations by 20%, and the number of tap changes in voltage regulators by 14%.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Quantifying and Predicting Residential Building Flexibility Using Machine Learning Methods

Residential buildings account for a significant portion (35\%) of the total electricity consumption in the U.S. as of 2022. As more distributed energy resources are installed in buildings, their potential to provide flexibility to the grid increases. To tap into that flexibility provided by buildings, aggregators or system operators need to quantify and forecast flexibility. Previous works in this area primarily focused on commercial buildings, with little work on residential buildings. To address the gap, this paper first proposes two complementary flexibility metrics (i.e., power and energy flexibility) and then investigates several mainstream machine learning-based models for predicting the time-variant and sporadic flexibility of residential buildings at four-hour and 24-hour forecast horizons. The long-short-term-memory (LSTM) model achieves the best performance and can predict power flexibility for up to 24 hours ahead with the average error around 0.7 kW. However, for energy flexibility, the LSTM model is only successful for loads with consistent operational patterns throughout the year and faces challenges when predicting energy flexibility associated with HVAC systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Resilient Control of Networked Microgrids using Vertical Federated Reinforcement Learning: Designs and Real-Time Test-Bed Validations

Improving system-level resiliency of networked microgrids is an important aspect with increased population of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This paper (1) presents resilient control design in presence of adversarial cyber-events, and proposes a novel federated reinforcement learning (Fed-RL) approach to tackle (a) model complexities, unknown dynamical behaviors of IBR devices, (b) privacy issues regarding data sharing in multi-party-owned networked grids, and (2) transfers learned controls from simulation to hardware-in-the-loop test-bed, thereby bridging the gap between simulation and real world. With these multi-prong objectives, first, we formulate a reinforcement learning (RL) training setup generating episodic trajectories with adversaries (attack signal) injected at the primary controllers of the grid forming (GFM) inverters where RL agents (or controllers) are being trained to mitigate the injected attacks. For networked microgrids, the horizontal Fed-RL method involving distinct independent environments is not appropriate, leading us to develop vertical variant Federated Soft Actor-Critic (FedSAC) algorithm to grasp the interconnected dynamics of networked microgrid. Next, utilizing OpenAI Gym interface, we built a custom simulation set-up in GridLAB-D/HELICS co-simulation platform, named Resilient RL Co-simulation (ResRLCoSIM), to train the RL agents with IEEE 123-bus benchmark test systems comprising 3 interconnected microgrids. Finally, the learned policies in simulation world are transferred to the real-time hardware-in-the-loop test-bed set-up developed using high-fidelity Hypersim platform. Experiments show that the simulator-trained RL controllers produce convincing results with the real-time test-bed set-up, validating the minimization of sim-to-real gap.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Toward Intelligent Emergency Control for Large-scale Power Systems: Convergence of Learning, Physics, Computing and Control

This paper has delved into the pressing need for intelligent emergency control in large-scale power systems, which are experiencing significant transformations and are operating closer to their limits with more uncertainties. Learning-based control methods are promising and have shown effectiveness for intelligent power system control. However, when they are applied to large-scale power systems, there are multifaceted challenges such as scalability, adaptiveness, and security posed by the complex power system landscape, which demand comprehensive solutions. The paper first proposes and instantiates a convergence framework for integrating power systems physics, machine learning, advanced computing, and grid control to realize intelligent grid control at a large scale. Our developed methods and platform based on the convergence framework have been applied to a large (more than 3000 buses) Texas power system, and tested with 56000 scenarios. Our work achieved a 26% reduction in load shedding on average and outperformed existing rule-based control in 99.7% of the test scenarios. The results demonstrated the potential of the proposed convergence framework and DRL-based intelligent control for the future grid.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Enhancing Cyber Resilience of Networked Microgrids using Vertical Federated Reinforcement Learning

This paper presents a novel federated reinforcement learning (Fed-RL) methodology to enhance the cyber resiliency of networked microgrids. We formulate a resilient reinforcement learning (RL) training setup which (a) generates episodic trajectories injecting adversarial actions at primary control reference signals of the grid forming (GFM) inverters and (b) trains the RL agents (or controllers) to alleviate the impact of the injected adversaries. To circumvent data-sharing issues and concerns for proprietary privacy in multi-party-owned networked grids, we bring in the aspects of federated machine learning and propose a novel Fed-RL algorithm to train the RL agents. To this end, the conventional horizontal Fed-RL approaches using decoupled independent environments fail to capture the coupled dynamics in a networked microgrid, which leads us to propose a multi-agent vertically federated variation of actor-critic algorithms, namely federated soft actor-critic (FedSAC) algorithm. We created a customized simulation setup encapsulating microgrid dynamics in the GridLAB-D/HELICS co-simulation platform compatible with the OpenAI Gym interface for training RL agents. Finally, the proposed methodology is validated with numerical examples of modified IEEE 123-bus benchmark test systems consisting of three coupled microgrids.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Efficient Learning of Voltage Control Strategies via Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning

This article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results in model-free DRL-based methods for power systems, but model-free methods suffer from poor sample efficiency and training time, both critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. And it is desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based-DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model, instead of a real-world power-grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized with the policy learning framework, making the process faster and sample efficient. However, stabilizing model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We solved these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step surrogate loss. Finally, we achieved 97.5% sample efficiency and 87.7% training efficiency for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Learning to run a power network with trust

Artificial agents are promising for real-time power network operations, particularly, to compute remedial actions for congestion management. However, due to high reliability requirements, purely autonomous agents will not be deployed any time soon and operators will be in charge of taking action for the foreseeable future. Aiming at designing assistant for operators, we instead consider humans in the loop and propose an original formulation. We first advance an agent with the ability to send to the operator alarms ahead of time when the proposed actions are of low confidence. We further model the operator's available attention as a budget that decreases when alarms are sent. We present the design and results of our competition "Learning to run a power network with trust" in which we evaluate our formulation and benchmark the ability of submitted agents to send relevant alarms while operating the network to their best.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Learning and Fast Adaptation for Grid Emergency Control via Deep Meta Reinforcement Learning

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. In this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method and achieve superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Safe Reinforcement Learning for Grid Voltage Control

Under voltage load shedding has been considered as a standard approach to recover the voltage stability of the electric power grid under emergency conditions, yet this scheme usually trips a massive amount of load inefficiently. Reinforcement learning (RL) has been adopted as a promising approach to circumvent the issues; however, RL approach usually cannot guarantee the safety of the systems under control. In this paper, we discuss a couple of novel safe RL approaches, namely constrained optimization approach and Barrier function-based approach, that can safely recover voltage under emergency events. This method is general and can be applied to other safety-critical control problems. Numerical simulations on the 39-bus IEEE benchmark are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed safe RL emergency control.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Physics-informed Evolutionary Strategy based Control for Mitigating Delayed Voltage Recovery

In this work we propose a novel data-driven, real-time power system voltage control method based on the physics-informed guided meta evolutionary strategy (ES). The main objective is to quickly provide an adaptive control strategy to mitigate the fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) problem. Reinforcement learning methods have been developed for the same or similar challenging control problems, but they suffer from training inefficiency and lack of robustness for "corner or unseen" scenarios. On the other hand, extensive physical knowledge has been developed in power systems but little has been leveraged in learning-based approaches. To address these challenges, we introduce the trainable action mask technique for flexibly embedding physical knowledge into RL models to rule out unnecessary or unfavorable actions, and achieve notable improvements in sample efficiency, control performance and robustness. Furthermore, our method leverages past learning experience to derive surrogate gradient to guide and accelerate the exploration process in training. Case studies on the IEEE 300-bus system and comparisons with other state-of-the-art benchmark methods demonstrate effectiveness and advantages of our method.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Improving Safety in Deep Reinforcement Learning using Unsupervised Action Planning

One of the key challenges to deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) is to ensure safety at both training and testing phases. In this work, we propose a novel technique of unsupervised action planning to improve the safety of on-policy reinforcement learning algorithms, such as trust region policy optimization (TRPO) or proximal policy optimization (PPO). We design our safety-aware reinforcement learning by storing all the history of "recovery" actions that rescue the agent from dangerous situations into a separate "safety" buffer and finding the best recovery action when the agent encounters similar states. Because this functionality requires the algorithm to query similar states, we implement the proposed safety mechanism using an unsupervised learning algorithm, k-means clustering. We evaluate the proposed algorithm on six robotic control tasks that cover navigation and manipulation. Our results show that the proposed safety RL algorithm can achieve higher rewards compared with multiple baselines in both discrete and continuous control problems. The supplemental video can be found at: https://youtu.be/AFTeWSohILo.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2021

Scalable Voltage Control using Structure-Driven Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning

This paper presents a novel hierarchical deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based design for the voltage control of power grids. DRL agents are trained for fast, and adaptive selection of control actions such that the voltage recovery criterion can be met following disturbances. Existing voltage control techniques suffer from the issues of speed of operation, optimal coordination between different locations, and scalability. We exploit the area-wise division structure of the power system to propose a hierarchical DRL design that can be scaled to the larger grid models. We employ an enhanced augmented random search algorithm that is tailored for the voltage control problem in a two-level architecture. We train area-wise decentralized RL agents to compute lower-level policies for the individual areas, and concurrently train a higher-level DRL agent that uses the updates of the lower-level policies to efficiently coordinate the control actions taken by the lower-level agents. Numerical experiments on the IEEE benchmark 39-bus model with 3 areas demonstrate the advantages and various intricacies of the proposed hierarchical approach.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Component Importance and Interdependence Analysis for Transmission, Distribution and Communication Systems

For critical infrastructure restoration planning, the real-time scheduling and coordination of system restoration efforts, the key in decision-making is to prioritize those critical components that are out of service during the restoration. For this purpose, there is a need for component importance analysis. While it has been investigated extensively for individual systems, component importance considering interdependence among transmission, distribution and communication (T&D&C) systems has not been systematically analyzed and widely adopted. In this study, we propose a component importance assessment method in the context of interdependence between T&D&C networks. Analytic methods for multilayer networks and a set of metrics have been applied for assessing the component importance and interdependence between T&D&C networks based on their physical characteristics. The proposed methodology is further validated with integrated synthetic Illinois regional transmission, distribution, and communication (T&D&C) systems, the results reveal the unique characteristics of component/node importance, which may be strongly affected by the network topology and cross-domain node mapping.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Accelerated Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Load Shedding for Emergency Voltage Control

Load shedding has been one of the most widely used and effective emergency control approaches against voltage instability. With increased uncertainties and rapidly changing operational conditions in power systems, existing methods have outstanding issues in terms of either speed, adaptiveness, or scalability. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) was regarded and adopted as a promising approach for fast and adaptive grid stability control in recent years. However, existing DRL algorithms show two outstanding issues when being applied to power system control problems: 1) computational inefficiency that requires extensive training and tuning time; and 2) poor scalability making it difficult to scale to high dimensional control problems. To overcome these issues, an accelerated DRL algorithm named PARS was developed and tailored for power system voltage stability control via load shedding. PARS features high scalability and is easy to tune with only five main hyperparameters. The method was tested on both the IEEE 39-bus and IEEE 300-bus systems, and the latter is by far the largest scale for such a study. Test results show that, compared to other methods including model-predictive control (MPC) and proximal policy optimization(PPO) methods, PARS shows better computational efficiency (faster convergence), more robustness in learning, excellent scalability and generalization capability.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Safe Reinforcement Learning for Emergency LoadShedding of Power Systems

The paradigm shift in the electric power grid necessitates a revisit of existing control methods to ensure the grid's security and resilience. In particular, the increased uncertainties and rapidly changing operational conditions in power systems have revealed outstanding issues in terms of either speed, adaptiveness, or scalability of the existing control methods for power systems. On the other hand, the availability of massive real-time data can provide a clearer picture of what is happening in the grid. Recently, deep reinforcement learning(RL) has been regarded and adopted as a promising approach leveraging massive data for fast and adaptive grid control. However, like most existing machine learning (ML)-basedcontrol techniques, RL control usually cannot guarantee the safety of the systems under control. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for safe RL-based load shedding of power systems that can enhance the safe voltage recovery of the electric power grid after experiencing faults. Numerical simulations on the 39-bus IEEE benchmark is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed safe RL emergency control, as well as its adaptive capability to faults not seen in the training.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Achieving Disaster-Resilient Distribution Systems via Emergency Response Resources: A Practical Approach

This paper presents a practical approach to utilizing emergency response resources (ERRs) and post-disaster available distributed energy resources (PDA-DERs) to improve the resilience of power distribution systems against natural disasters. The proposed approach consists of two sequential steps: first, the minimum amount of ERRs is determined in a pre-disaster planning model; second, a post-disaster restoration model is proposed to co-optimize the dispatch of pre-planned ERRs and PDA-DERs to minimize the impact of disasters on customers, i.e., unserved energy for the entire restoration window. Compared with existing restoration strategies using ERRs, the proposed approach is more tractable since 1) in the pre-disaster stage, the needed EERs are determined based on the prediction of energy shortage and disaster-induced damages using machine learning-based algorithms (i.e., cost-sensitive-RFQRF for prediction of outage customers, random forest for prediction of outage duration, and CART for prediction of disaster-induced damages); 2) in the post-disaster stage, the super-node approximation (SNA) and the convex hull relaxation (CHR) of distribution networks are introduced to achieve the best trade-off between computational burden and accuracy. Tests of the proposed approach on IEEE test feeders demonstrated that a combination of SNA and CHR remarkably reduces the solution time of the post-disaster restoration model.

eess.SY↗