arXiv subjects

Qiuwei Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Qiuwei Wu.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

SolarSeer: Ultrafast and accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasts outperforming numerical weather prediction across the USA

Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance but rely on computationally costly data assimilation and solving complicated partial differential equations (PDEs) that simulate atmospheric physics. Here, we introduce SolarSeer, an end-to-end large artificial intelligence (AI) model for solar irradiance forecasting across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). SolarSeer is designed to directly map the historical satellite observations to future forecasts, eliminating the computational overhead of data assimilation and PDEs solving. This efficiency allows SolarSeer to operate over 1,500 times faster than traditional NWP, generating 24-hour cloud cover and solar irradiance forecasts for the CONUS at 5-kilometer resolution in under 3 seconds. Compared with the state-of-the-art NWP in the CONUS, i.e., High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), SolarSeer significantly reduces the root mean squared error of solar irradiance forecasting by 27.28% in reanalysis data and 15.35% across 1,800 stations. SolarSeer also effectively captures solar irradiance fluctuations and significantly enhances the first-order irradiance difference forecasting accuracy. SolarSeer's ultrafast, accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasts provide strong support for the transition to sustainable, net-zero energy systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Reliability-Based Planning of Cable Layout for Offshore Wind Farm Electrical Collector System Considering Post-Fault Network Reconfiguration

The electrical collector system (ECS) plays a crucial role in determining the performance of offshore wind farms (OWFs). Existing research has predominantly restricted ECS cable layouts to conventional radial or ring structures and employed graph theory heuristics for solutions. However, both economic efficiency and reliability of the OWFs heavily depend on their ECS structure, and the optimal ECS cable layout often deviates from typical configurations. In this context, this paper introduces a novel reliability-based ECS cable layout planning method for large-scale OWFs, employing a two-stage stochastic programming approach to address uncertainties of wind power and contingencies. To enhance reliability, the model incorporates optimal post-fault network reconfiguration strategies by adjusting wind turbine power supply paths through link cables. To tackle computation challenges arising from numerous contingency scenarios, a customized progressive contingency incorporation (CPCI) framework is developed to solve the model with higher efficiency by iteratively identifying non-trivial scenarios and solving the simplified problems. The convergence and optimality are theoretically proven. Numerical tests on several real-world OWFs validate the necessity of fully optimizing ECS structures and demonstrate the efficiency of the CPCI algorithm.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Dynamic Microgrid Formation Considering Time-dependent Contingency: A Distributionally Robust Approach

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events has posed significant risks to the operation of power grids. During long-duration extreme weather events, microgrid formation (MF) is an essential solution to enhance the resilience of the distribution systems by proactively partitioning the distribution system into several microgrids to mitigate the impact of contingencies. This paper proposes a distributionally robust dynamic microgrid formation (DR-DMF) approach to fully consider the temporal characteristics of line failure probability during long-duration extreme weather events like typhoons. The boundaries of each microgrid are dynamically adjusted to enhance the resilience of the system. Furthermore, the expected load shedding is minimized by a distributionally robust optimization model considering the uncertainty of line failure probability regarding the worst-case distribution of contingencies. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by numerical simulations on a modified IEEE 37-node system.

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arXiv2024

Distribution Locational Marginal Emission for Carbon Alleviation in Distribution Networks: Formulation, Calculation, and Implication

Regulating the proper carbon-aware intervention policy is one of the keys to emission alleviation in the distribution network, whose basis lies in effectively attributing the emission responsibility using emission factors. This paper establishes the distribution locational marginal emission (DLME) to calculate the marginal change of emission from the marginal change of both active and reactive load demand for incentivizing carbon alleviation. It first formulates the day-head distribution network scheduling model based on the second-order cone program (SOCP). The emission propagation and responsibility are analyzed from demand to supply to system emission. Considering the complex and implicit mapping of the SOCP-based scheduling model, the implicit theorem is leveraged to exploit the optimal condition of SOCP. The corresponding SOCP-based implicit derivation approach is proposed to calculate the DLMEs effectively in a model-based way. Comprehensive numerical studies are conducted to verify the superiority of the proposed method by comparing its calculation efficacy to the conventional marginal estimation approach, assessing its effectiveness in carbon alleviation with comparison to the average emission factors, and evaluating its carbon alleviation ability of reactive DLME.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A Smart Switch Configuration and Reliability Assessment Method for Large-Scale Offshore Wind Farm Electrical Collector System

With the development of offshore wind farms (OWFs) in far-offshore and deep-sea areas, each OWF could contain more and more wind turbines and cables, making it imperative to study high-reliability electrical collector system (ECS) for OWF. Enlightened by active distribution network, for OWF, we propose an ECS switch configuration that enables post-fault network recovery, along with a reliability assessment (RA) method based on optimization models. It can also determine the optimal normal state and network reconfiguration strategies to maximize ECS reliability. Case studies on several OWFs demonstrate that the proposed RA method is more computationally efficient and accurate than the traditional sequential Monte-Carlo simulation method. Moreover, the proposed switch configuration, in conjunction with the network reconfiguration strategy and proper topology, provides significant benefits to ECS reliability.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A Contextual Bandit Approach for Value-oriented Prediction Interval Forecasting

Prediction interval (PI) is an effective tool to quantify uncertainty and usually serves as an input to downstream robust optimization. Traditional approaches focus on improving the quality of PI in the view of statistical scores and assume the improvement in quality will lead to a higher value in the power systems operation. However, such an assumption cannot always hold in practice. In this paper, we propose a value-oriented PI forecasting approach, which aims at reducing operational costs in downstream operations. For that, it is required to issue PIs with the guidance of operational costs in robust optimization, which is addressed within the contextual bandit framework here. Concretely, the agent is used to select the optimal quantile proportion, while the environment reveals the costs in operations as rewards to the agent. As such, the agent can learn the policy of quantile proportion selection for minimizing the operational cost. The numerical study regarding a two-timescale operation of a virtual power plant verifies the superiority of the proposed approach in terms of operational value. And it is especially evident in the context of extensive penetration of wind power.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Planning for Electrical Collector System of Offshore Wind Farm with Double-sided Ring Topology

We propose a planning method for offshore wind farm electrical collector system (OWF-ECS) with double-sided ring topology meeting the "N-1" criterion on cable faults, in which the submarine cables layout of OWF is optimized considering cable length and power losses. The proposed mixed-integer quadratic programming (MIQP) model is based on the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) formulation and power network expansion planning, which could approximate the power losses in OWF-ECS. In addition, cross-avoidance constraints are proposed to avoid crossing cables, and the minimum k-degree center tree model is included to improve the convergence. Case studies on OWFs with 30 and 62 WTs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Considering the potential outage cost in the radial topology, the total cost of the planning result is reduced by up to 25.9% with reliability improvement. The cable investment is reduced by 4%~8% with the proposed method compared with conventional heuristic methods and Google OR-tools. The proposed method/model can also achieve acceptable computation efficiency and OWF-ECS planning results with good optimality. Moreover, it could be solved by modern commercial solvers/optimization software, thus it's easy to use even for large-scale OWF.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Energy-grade double pricing mechanism for a combined heat and power system using the asynchronous dispatch method

The problem of heat and electricity pricing in combined heat and power systems regarding the time scales of electricity and heat, as well as thermal energy quality, is studied. Based on the asynchronous coordinated dispatch of the combined heat and power system, an energy-grade double pricing mechanism is proposed. Under the pricing mechanism, the resulting merchandise surplus of the heat system operator at each heat dispatch interval can be decomposed into interpretable parts and its revenue adequacy can be guaranteed for all heat dispatch intervals. And the electric power system operator's resulting merchandise surplus is composed of non-negative components at each electricity dispatch interval, also ensuring its revenue adequacy. In addition, the effects of different time scales and cogeneration are analyzed in different kinds of combined heat and power units' pricing.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

A Multiple Market Trading Mechanism for Electricity, Renewable Energy Certificate and Carbon Emission Right of Virtual Power Plants

A multiple market trading mechanism for the VPP to participate in electricity, renewable energy certificate (REC) and carbon emission right (CER) markets is proposed. With the introduction of the inventory mechanism of REC and CER, the profit of the VPP increases and better trading decisions with multiple markets are made under the requirements of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and carbon emission (CE) quota requirements. According to the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions of the proposed model, properties of the multiple market trading mechanism are discussed. Results from case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Optimal Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Electricity Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems via Reinforcement Learning

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to unforeseen changes in future load patterns. Therefore, we propose an optimal PI estimation approach, which is online and adaptive to different data distributions by adaptively determining symmetric or asymmetric probability proportion pairs for quantiles. It relies on the online learning ability of reinforcement learning to integrate the two online tasks, i.e., the adaptive selection of probability proportion pairs and quantile predictions, both of which are modeled by neural networks. As such, the quality of quantiles-formed PI can guide the selection process of optimal probability proportion pairs, which forms a closed loop to improve the quality of PIs. Furthermore, to improve the learning efficiency of quantile forecasts, a prioritized experience replay strategy is proposed for online quantile regression processes. Case studies on both load and net load demonstrate that the proposed method can better adapt to data distribution compared with online central PIs method. Compared with offline-trained methods, it obtains PIs with better quality and is more robust against concept drift.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

On Nash-Stackelberg-Nash Games under Decision-Dependent Uncertainties: Model and Equilibrium

In this paper, we discuss a class of two-stage hierarchical games with multiple leaders and followers, which is called Nash-Stackelberg-Nash (N-S-N) games. Particularly, we consider N-S-N games under decision-dependent uncertainties (DDUs). DDUs refer to the uncertainties that are affected by the strategies of decision-makers and have been rarely addressed in game equilibrium analysis. In this paper, we first formulate the N-S-N games with DDUs of complete ignorance, where the interactions between the players and DDUs are characterized by uncertainty sets that depend parametrically on the players' strategies. Then, a rigorous definition for the equilibrium of the game is established by consolidating generalized Nash equilibrium and Pareto-Nash equilibrium. Afterward, we prove the existence of the equilibrium of N-S-N games under DDUs by applying Kakutani's fixed-point theorem. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to show the impact of DDUs on the equilibrium of N-S-N games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Resilient expansion planning of virtual energy plant with an integrated energy system -- reliability criteria of lines and towers

Virtual power plants, while being virtual, rely on a physical network for operations. The portfolio of the virtual power plants is flexible in facilitating a wide range of resources including the local heat pumps. The power transmission network has the responsibility to ensure the security of supply, reliability of operation, planning, and expansion. The power transmission network and apparatus including lines and towers are also aging with time. Furthermore, the transmission network covers a large geographical area which is expensive to maintain. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of power network conditions on power network expansion planning. The condition of the power network is determined by the maintenance cost of lines and a health index and a risk factor associated with the tower. The investigation begins with answering how the inclusion of heat pump impacts the decisions on network interventions. Thereafter, the condition network is factored into the decision-making by better understanding the impact of the network condition on the overall expansion planning. Furthermore, many sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate the trade-offs between decision variables such as cost of heat pump, coefficient of performance of heat pump, risk factors, and line and tower costs.

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arXiv2021

Deep Learning based Model-free Robust Load Restoration to Enhance Bulk System Resilience with Wind Power Penetration

This paper proposes a new deep learning (DL) based model-free robust method for bulk system on-line load restoration with high penetration of wind power. Inspired by the iterative calculation of the two-stage robust load restoration model, the deep neural network (DNN) and deep convolutional neural network (CNN) are respectively designed to find the worst-case system condition of a load pickup decision and evaluate the corresponding security. In order to find the optimal result within a limited number of checks, a load pickup checklist generation (LPCG) algorithm is developed to ensure the optimality. Then, the fast robust load restoration strategy acquisition is achieved based on the designed one-line strategy generation (OSG) algorithm. The proposed method finds the optimal result in a model-free way, holds the robustness to handle uncertainties, and provides real-time computation. It can completely replace conventional robust optimization and supports on-line robust load restoration which better satisfies the changeable restoration process. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using the IEEE 30-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, showing high computational efficiency and considerable accuracy.

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arXiv2020

Network-Constrained Transactive Control for Multi- Microgrids-based Distribution Networks with SOPs

Different from most transactive control studies only focusing on economic aspect, this paper develops a novel network-constrained transactive control (NTC) framework that can address both economic and secure issues for a multi-microgrids-based distribution network considering uncertainties. In particular, we innovatively integrate a transactive energy market with the novel power-electronics device (i.e., soft open point) based AC power flow regulation technique to improve economic benefits for individual microgrids and meanwhile ensure the security of the entire distribution network. In this framework, a dynamic two-timescale NTC model consisting of slow-timescale pre-scheduling and real-time scheduling stages is formulated to work against multiple system uncertainties. Moreover, the original bilevel game problems are transformed into single-level mixed-integer second-order cone programming problems through KKT conditions, duality, linearization and relaxation techniques to avoid iterations of transitional methods, so as to improve computational efficiency. Finally, numerical simulations on a modified 33-bus test system with 3 MGs verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Asynchrony-Resilient and Privacy-Preserving Charging Protocol for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

The proliferation of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) advocates a distributed paradigm for the coordination of PEV charging. Distinct from existing primal-dual decomposition or consensus methods, this paper proposes a cutting-plane based distributed algorithm, which enables an asynchronous coordination while well preserving individual's private information. To this end, an equivalent surrogate model is first constructed by exploiting the duality of the original optimization problem, which masks the private information of individual users by a transformation. Then, a cutting-plane based algorithm is derived to solve the surrogate problem in a distributed manner with intrinsic superiority to cope with various asynchrony. Critical implementation issues, such as the distributed initialization, cutting-plane generation and localized stopping criteria, are discussed in detail. Numerical tests on IEEE 37- and 123-node feeders with real data show that the proposed method is resilient to a variety of asynchrony and admits the plug-and-play operation mode. It is expected the proposed methodology provides an alternative path toward a more practical protocol for PEV charging.

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arXiv2020

Distributed Generalized Nash Equilibrium Seeking for Energy Sharing Games

With the proliferation of distributed generators and energy storage systems, traditional passive consumers in power systems have been gradually evolving into the so-called "prosumers", i.e., proactive consumers, which can both produce and consume power. To encourage energy exchange among prosumers, energy sharing is increasingly adopted, which is usually formulated as a generalized Nash game (GNG). In this paper, a distributed approach is proposed to seek the Generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE) of the energy sharing game. To this end, we convert the GNG into an equivalent optimization problem. A Krasnosel'ski{ǐ}-Mann iteration type algorithm is thereby devised to solve the problem and consequently find the GNE in a distributed manner. The convergence of the proposed algorithm is proved rigorously based on the nonexpansive operator theory. The performance of the algorithm is validated by experiments with three prosumers, and the scalability is tested by simulations using 123 prosumers.

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