arXiv subjects

Qiwei Han

Publications and source records attributed to Qiwei Han.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Interpretable Deep Learning for Forecasting Online Advertising Costs: Insights from the Competitive Bidding Landscape

As advertisers increasingly shift their budgets toward digital advertising, accurately forecasting advertising costs becomes essential for optimizing marketing campaign returns. This paper presents a comprehensive study that employs various time-series forecasting methods to predict daily average CPC in the online advertising market. We evaluate the performance of statistical models, machine learning techniques, and deep learning approaches, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). Our findings reveal that incorporating multivariate models, enriched with covariates derived from competitors' CPC patterns through time-series clustering, significantly improves forecasting accuracy. We interpret the results by analyzing feature importance and temporal attention, demonstrating how the models leverage both the advertiser's data and insights from the competitive landscape. Additionally, our method proves robust during major market shifts, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, consistently outperforming models that rely solely on individual advertisers' data. This study introduces a scalable technique for selecting relevant covariates from a broad pool of advertisers, offering more accurate long-term forecasts and strategic insights into budget allocation and competitive dynamics in digital advertising.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

AiGen-FoodReview: A Multimodal Dataset of Machine-Generated Restaurant Reviews and Images on Social Media

Online reviews in the form of user-generated content (UGC) significantly impact consumer decision-making. However, the pervasive issue of not only human fake content but also machine-generated content challenges UGC's reliability. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) may pave the way to fabricate indistinguishable fake generated content at a much lower cost. Leveraging OpenAI's GPT-4-Turbo and DALL-E-2 models, we craft AiGen-FoodReview, a multi-modal dataset of 20,144 restaurant review-image pairs divided into authentic and machine-generated. We explore unimodal and multimodal detection models, achieving 99.80% multimodal accuracy with FLAVA. We use attributes from readability and photographic theories to score reviews and images, respectively, demonstrating their utility as hand-crafted features in scalable and interpretable detection models, with comparable performance. The paper contributes by open-sourcing the dataset and releasing fake review detectors, recommending its use in unimodal and multimodal fake review detection tasks, and evaluating linguistic and visual features in synthetic versus authentic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Dissecting Medical Referral Mechanisms in Health Services: Role of Physician Professional Networks

Medical referrals between primary care physicians (PC) and specialist care (SC) physicians profoundly impact patient care regarding quality, satisfaction, and cost. This paper investigates the influence of professional networks among medical doctors on referring patients from PC to SC. Using five-year consultation data from a Portuguese private health provider, we conducted exploratory data analysis and constructed both professional and referral networks among physicians. We then apply Graph Neural Network (GNN) models to learn latent representations of the referral network. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that doctors' professional social connections can predict medical referrals, potentially enhancing collaboration within organizations and improving healthcare services. This research contributes to dissecting the underlying mechanisms in primary-specialty referrals, thereby providing valuable insights for enhancing patient care and effective healthcare management.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Extreme Multilabel Classification for Specialist Doctor Recommendation with Implicit Feedback and Limited Patient Metadata

Recommendation Systems (RS) are often used to address the issue of medical doctor referrals. However, these systems require access to patient feedback and medical records, which may not always be available in real-world scenarios. Our research focuses on medical referrals and aims to predict recommendations in different specialties of physicians for both new patients and those with a consultation history. We use Extreme Multilabel Classification (XML), commonly employed in text-based classification tasks, to encode available features and explore different scenarios. While its potential for recommendation tasks has often been suggested, this has not been thoroughly explored in the literature. Motivated by the doctor referral case, we show how to recast a traditional recommender setting into a multilabel classification problem that current XML methods can solve. Further, we propose a unified model leveraging patient history across different specialties. Compared to state-of-the-art RS using the same features, our approach consistently improves standard recommendation metrics up to approximately $10\%$ for patients with a previous consultation history. For new patients, XML proves better at exploiting available features, outperforming the benchmark in favorable scenarios, with particular emphasis on recall metrics. Thus, our approach brings us one step closer to creating more effective and personalized doctor referral systems. Additionally, it highlights XML as a promising alternative to current hybrid or content-based RS, while identifying key aspects to take into account when using XML for recommendation tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Beyond Rankings: Exploring the Impact of SERP Features on Organic Click-through Rates

Search Engine Result Pages (SERPs) serve as the digital gateways to the vast expanse of the internet. Past decades have witnessed a surge in research primarily centered on the influence of website ranking on these pages, to determine the click-through rate (CTR). However, during this period, the landscape of SERPs has undergone a dramatic evolution: SERP features, encompassing elements such as knowledge panels, media galleries, FAQs, and more, have emerged as an increasingly prominent facet of these result pages. Our study examines the crucial role of these features, revealing them to be not merely aesthetic components, but strongly influence CTR and the associated behavior of internet users. We demonstrate how these features can significantly modulate web traffic, either amplifying or attenuating it. We dissect these intricate interaction effects leveraging a unique dataset of 67,000 keywords and their respective Google SERPs, spanning over 40 distinct US-based e-commerce domains, generating over 6 million clicks from 24 million views. This cross-website dataset, unprecedented in its scope, enables us to assess the impact of 24 different SERP features on organic CTR. Through an ablation study modeling CTR, we illustrate the incremental predictive power these features hold.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Combat AI With AI: Counteract Machine-Generated Fake Restaurant Reviews on Social Media

Recent advances in generative models such as GPT may be used to fabricate indistinguishable fake customer reviews at a much lower cost, thus posing challenges for social media platforms to detect these machine-generated fake reviews. We propose to leverage the high-quality elite restaurant reviews verified by Yelp to generate fake reviews from the OpenAI GPT review creator and ultimately fine-tune a GPT output detector to predict fake reviews that significantly outperform existing solutions. We further apply the model to predict non-elite reviews and identify the patterns across several dimensions, such as review, user and restaurant characteristics, and writing style. We show that social media platforms are continuously challenged by machine-generated fake reviews, although they may implement detection systems to filter out suspicious reviews.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Online Advertising Revenue Forecasting: An Interpretable Deep Learning Approach

Online advertising revenues account for an increasing share of publishers' revenue streams, especially for small and medium-sized publishers who depend on the advertisement networks of tech companies such as Google and Facebook. Thus publishers may benefit significantly from accurate online advertising revenue forecasts to better manage their website monetization strategies. However, publishers who only have access to their own revenue data lack a holistic view of the total ad market of publishers, which in turn limits their ability to generate insights into their own future online advertising revenues. To address this business issue, we leverage a proprietary database encompassing Google Adsense revenues from a large collection of publishers in diverse areas. We adopt the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model, a novel attention-based architecture to predict publishers' advertising revenues. We leverage multiple covariates, including not only the publisher's own characteristics but also other publishers' advertising revenues. Our prediction results outperform several benchmark deep-learning time-series forecast models over multiple time horizons. Moreover, we interpret the results by analyzing variable importance weights to identify significant features and self-attention weights to reveal persistent temporal patterns.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Incorporating Domain Knowledge into Health Recommender Systems using Hyperbolic Embeddings

In contrast to many other domains, recommender systems in health services may benefit particularly from the incorporation of health domain knowledge, as it helps to provide meaningful and personalised recommendations catering to the individual's health needs. With recent advances in representation learning enabling the hierarchical embedding of health knowledge into the hyperbolic Poincare space, this work proposes a content-based recommender system for patient-doctor matchmaking in primary care based on patients' health profiles, enriched by pre-trained Poincare embeddings of the ICD-9 codes through transfer learning. The proposed model outperforms its conventional counterpart in terms of recommendation accuracy and has several important business implications for improving the patient-doctor relationship.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2019

A Hybrid Recommender System for Patient-Doctor Matchmaking in Primary Care

We partner with a leading European healthcare provider and design a mechanism to match patients with family doctors in primary care. We define the matchmaking process for several distinct use cases given different levels of available information about patients. Then, we adopt a hybrid recommender system to present each patient a list of family doctor recommendations. In particular, we model patient trust of family doctors using a large-scale dataset of consultation histories, while accounting for the temporal dynamics of their relationships. Our proposed approach shows higher predictive accuracy than both a heuristic baseline and a collaborative filtering approach, and the proposed trust measure further improves model performance.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2016

Asymmetric Peer Influence in Smartphone Adoption in a Large Mobile Network

Understanding adoption patterns of smartphones is of vital importance to telecommunication managers in today's highly dynamic mobile markets. In this paper, we leverage the network structure and specific position of each individual in the social network to account for and measure the potential heterogeneous role of peer influence in the adoption of the iPhone 3G. We introduce the idea of core/periphery as a meso-level organizational principle to study the social network, which complements the use of centrality measures derived from either global network properties (macro-level) or from each individual's local social neighbourhood (micro-level). Using millions of call detailed records from a mobile network operator in one country for a period of eleven months, we identify overlapping social communities as well as core and periphery individuals in the network. Our empirical analysis shows that core users exert more influence on periphery users than vice versa. Our findings provide important insights to help identify influential members in the social network, which is potentially useful to design optimal targeting strategies to improve current network-based marketing practices.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

The Role of Peer Influence in Churn in Wireless Networks

Subscriber churn remains a top challenge for wireless carriers. These carriers need to understand the determinants of churn to confidently apply effective retention strategies to ensure their profitability and growth. In this paper, we look at the effect of peer influence on churn and we try to disentangle it from other effects that drive simultaneous churn across friends but that do not relate to peer influence. We analyze a random sample of roughly 10 thousand subscribers from large dataset from a major wireless carrier over a period of 10 months. We apply survival models and generalized propensity score to identify the role of peer influence. We show that the propensity to churn increases when friends do and that it increases more when many strong friends churn. Therefore, our results suggest that churn managers should consider strategies aimed at preventing group churn. We also show that survival models fail to disentangle homophily from peer influence over-estimating the effect of peer influence.

cs.SI↗