R. B. Olsen | Searcharxiv

arXiv2010

Patterns in high-frequency FX data: Discovery of 12 empirical scaling laws

We have discovered 12 independent new empirical scaling laws in foreign exchange data-series that hold for close to three orders of magnitude and across 13 currency exchange rates. Our statistical analysis crucially depends on an event-based approach that measures the relationship between different types of events. The scaling laws give an accurate estimation of the length of the price-curve coastline, which turns out to be surprisingly long. The new laws substantially extend the catalogue of stylised facts and sharply constrain the space of possible theoretical explanations of the market mechanisms.

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arXiv2009

The scale of market quakes

We define a methodology to quantify market activity on a 24 hour basis by defining a scale, the so-called scale of market quakes (SMQ). The SMQ is designed within a framework where we analyse the dynamics of excess price moves from one directional change of price to the next. We use the SMQ to quantify the FX market and evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology at major news announcements. The evolution of SMQ magnitudes from 2003 to 2009 is analysed across major currency pairs.

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