arXiv subjects

R. de la Fuente Marcos

Publications and source records attributed to R. de la Fuente Marcos.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Finding Planet Nine: apsidal anti-alignment Monte Carlo results

The distribution of the orbital elements of the known extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs has been found to be statistically incompatible with that of an unperturbed asteroid population following heliocentric or, better, barycentric orbits. Such trends, if confirmed by future discoveries of ETNOs, strongly suggest that one or more massive perturbers could be located well beyond Pluto. Within the trans-Plutonian planets paradigm, the Planet Nine hypothesis has received much attention as a robust scenario to explain the observed clustering in physical space of the perihelia of seven ETNOs which also exhibit clustering in orbital pole position. Here, we revisit the subject of clustering in perihelia and poles of the known ETNOs using barycentric orbits, and study the visibility of the latest incarnation of the orbit of Planet Nine applying Monte Carlo techniques and focusing on the effects of the apsidal anti-alignment constraint. We provide visibility maps indicating the most likely location of this putative planet if it is near aphelion. We also show that the available data suggest that at least two massive perturbers are present beyond Pluto.

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arXiv2016

Dynamical impact of the Planet Nine scenario: N-body experiments

The Planet Nine hypothesis has now enough constraints to deserve further attention in the form of detailed numerical experiments. The results of such studies can help us improve our understanding of the dynamical effects of such a hypothetical object on the extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs and perhaps provide additional constraints on the orbit of Planet Nine itself. Here, we present the results of direct N-body calculations including the latest data available on the Planet Nine conjecture. The present-day orbits of the six ETNOs originally linked to the hypothesis are evolved backwards in time and into the future under some plausible incarnations of the hypothesis to investigate if the values of several orbital elements, including the argument of perihelion, remain confined to relatively narrow ranges. We find that a nominal Planet Nine can keep the orbits of (90377) Sedna and 2012 VP113 relatively well confined in orbital parameter space for hundreds of Myr, but it may make the orbits of 2004 VN112, 2007 TG422 and 2013 RF98 very unstable on time-scales of dozens of Myr, turning them retrograde and eventually triggering their ejection from the Solar system. Far more stable orbital evolution is found with slightly modified orbits for Planet Nine.

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arXiv2016

Commensurabilities between ETNOs: a Monte Carlo survey

Many asteroids in the main and trans-Neptunian belts are trapped in mean motion resonances with Jupiter and Neptune, respectively. As a side effect, they experience accidental commensurabilities among themselves. These commensurabilities define characteristic patterns that can be used to trace the source of the observed resonant behaviour. Here, we explore systematically the existence of commensurabilities between the known ETNOs using their heliocentric and barycentric semimajor axes, their uncertainties, and Monte Carlo techniques. We find that the commensurability patterns present in the known ETNO population resemble those found in the main and trans-Neptunian belts. Although based on small number statistics, such patterns can only be properly explained if most, if not all, of the known ETNOs are subjected to the resonant gravitational perturbations of yet undetected trans-Plutonian planets. We show explicitly that some of the statistically significant commensurabilities are compatible with the Planet Nine hypothesis; in particular, a number of objects may be trapped in the 5:3 and 3:1 mean motion resonances with a putative Planet Nine with semimajor axis of about 700 au.

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arXiv2016

Finding Planet Nine: a Monte Carlo approach

Planet Nine is a hypothetical planet located well beyond Pluto that has been proposed in an attempt to explain the observed clustering in physical space of the perihelia of six extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs. The predicted approximate values of its orbital elements include a semimajor axis of 700 au, an eccentricity of 0.6, an inclination of 30 degrees, and an argument of perihelion of 150 degrees. Searching for this putative planet is already under way. Here, we use a Monte Carlo approach to create a synthetic population of Planet Nine orbits and study its visibility statistically in terms of various parameters and focusing on the aphelion configuration. Our analysis shows that, if Planet Nine exists and is at aphelion, it might be found projected against one out of four specific areas in the sky. Each area is linked to a particular value of the longitude of the ascending node and two of them are compatible with an apsidal anti-alignment scenario. In addition and after studying the current statistics of ETNOs, a cautionary note on the robustness of the perihelia clustering is presented.

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arXiv2016

A trio of horseshoes: past, present and future dynamical evolution of Earth co-orbital asteroids 2015 XX169, 2015 YA and 2015 YQ1

It is widely accepted that a quasi-steady-state flux of minor bodies moving in and out of the co-orbital state with the Earth may exist. Some of these objects are very good candidates for future in situ study due to their favourable dynamical properties. In this paper, we show that the recently discovered near-Earth asteroids 2015 XX169, 2015 YA and 2015 YQ1 are small transient Earth co-orbitals. These new findings increase the tally of known Earth co-orbitals to 17. The three of them currently exhibit asymmetric horseshoe behaviour subjected to a Kozai resonance and their short-term orbital evolution is rather unstable. Both 2015 YA and 2015 YQ1 may leave Earth's co-orbital zone in the near future as they experience close encounters with Venus, the Earth-Moon system and Mars. Asteroid 2015 XX169 may have remained in the vicinity of, or trapped inside, the 1:1 mean motion resonance with our planet for many thousands of years and may continue in that region for a significant amount of time into the future.

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arXiv2015

Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

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arXiv2015

From horseshoe to quasi-satellite and back again: the curious dynamics of Earth co-orbital asteroid 2015 SO2

Earth co-orbitals of the horseshoe type are interesting objects to study for practical reasons. They are relatively easy to access from our planet and that makes them attractive targets for sample return missions. Here, we show that near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 2015 SO2 is a transient co-orbital to the Earth that experiences a rather peculiar orbital evolution characterised by recurrent, alternating horseshoe and quasi-satellite episodes. It is currently following a horseshoe trajectory, the ninth asteroid known to do so. Besides moving inside the 1:1 mean motion resonance with the Earth, it is subjected to a Kozai resonance with the value of the argument of perihelion librating around 270 degrees. Contrary to other NEAs, asteroid 2015 SO2 may have remained in the vicinity of Earth's co-orbital region for a few hundreds of thousands of years.

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arXiv2015

Chasing the Chelyabinsk asteroid N-body style

On 2013 February 15 a small asteroid rammed against the atmosphere above the region of Chelyabinsk in Russia, producing the most powerful superbolide since the Tunguska event in 1908. Lacking proper astrometric observations, the pre-impact orbit of this object has been determined using videos, satellite images, and pure geometry. Unfortunately, more than two years after the event, the published estimates vary so much that there is no clear orbital solution that could be used to investigate the origin of the impactor and the existence of dynamically, or perhaps even genetically, related asteroids. Here, we revisit this topic using a full N-body approach. A robust statistical test is applied to published solutions to discard those unable to produce a virtual impact at the observed time (03:20:20.8 s UTC). The same N-body methodology and the latest ephemerides are used to compute a new orbital solution: a=1.6247 AU, e=0.5318, i=3.9750 degrees, Omega=326.4607 degrees and omega=109.7012 degrees. This new solution --which has an impact probability > 0.99999 and uncertainties in time and space of 0.2 s and 6 km, respectively-- is utilized to explore the past orbital evolution of the impactor as well as the presence of near-Earth objects moving in similar paths. A dynamical link between asteroid 2011 EO40 and the Chelyabinsk impactor is confirmed. Alternative orbital solutions are extensively explored.

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arXiv2015

On the angular distribution of IceCube high-energy events

The detection of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin by the IceCube neutrino observatory in Antarctica has opened a unique window to the cosmos that may help to probe both the distant Universe and our cosmic backyard. The arrival directions of these high-energy events have been interpreted as uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Here, we revisit the topic of the putative isotropic angular distribution of these events applying Monte Carlo techniques to investigate a possible anisotropy. A modest evidence for anisotropy is found. An excess of events appears projected towards a section of the Local Void, where the density of galaxies with radial velocities below 3000 km/s is rather low, suggesting that this particular group of somewhat clustered sources are located either very close to the Milky Way or perhaps beyond 40 Mpc. The results of further analyses of the subsample of southern hemisphere events favour an origin at cosmological distances with the arrival directions of the events organized in a fractal-like structure. Although a small fraction of closer sources is possible, remote hierarchical structures appear to be the main source of these very energetic neutrinos. Some of the events may have their origin at the IBEX ribbon.

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arXiv2015

Asteroid 2015 DB216: a recurring co-orbital companion to Uranus

Minor bodies trapped in 1:1 co-orbital resonances with a host planet could be relevant to explain the origin of captured satellites. Among the giant planets, Uranus has one of the smallest known populations of co-orbitals, three objects, and all of them are short-lived. Asteroid 2015 DB216 has an orbital period that matches well that of Uranus, and here we investigate its dynamical state. Direct N-body calculations are used to assess the current status of this object, reconstruct its immediate dynamical past, and explore its future orbital evolution. A covariance matrix-based Monte Carlo scheme is presented and applied to study its short-term stability. We find that 2015 DB216 is trapped in a temporary co-orbital resonance with Uranus, the fourth known minor body to do so. A detailed analysis of its dynamical evolution shows that it is an unstable but recurring co-orbital companion to Uranus. It currently follows an asymmetric horseshoe trajectory that will last for at least 10 kyr, but it may remain inside Uranus' co-orbital zone for millions of years. As in the case of other transient Uranian co-orbitals, complex multibody ephemeral mean motion resonances trigger the switching between the various resonant co-orbital states. The new Uranian co-orbital exhibits a secular behaviour markedly different from that of the other known Uranian co-orbitals because of its higher inclination, nearly 38 degrees. Given its rather unusual discovery circumstances, the presence of 2015 DB216 hints at the existence of a relatively large population of objects moving in similar orbits.

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arXiv2015

Ghosts of Milky Way's past: the globular cluster ESO 37-1 (E 3)

Context. In the Milky Way, most globular clusters are highly conspicuous objects that were found centuries ago. However, a few dozen of them are faint, sparsely populated systems that were identified largely during the second half of the past century. One of the faintest is ESO 37-1 (E 3) and as such it remains poorly studied, with no spectroscopic observations published so far, although it was discovered in 1976. Aims. We investigate the globular cluster E 3 in an attempt to better constrain its fundamental parameters. Spectroscopy of stars in the field of E 3 is shown here for the first time. Methods. Deep, precise VI CCD photometry of E 3 down to V=26 mag is presented and analysed. Low-resolution, medium signal-to-noise ratio spectra of nine candidate members are studied to derive radial velocity and metallicity. Proper motions from the UCAC4 catalogue are used to explore the kinematics of the bright members of E 3. Results. Isochrone fitting indicates that E 3 is probably very old, with an age of about 13 Gyr; its distance from the Sun is nearly 10 kpc. It is also somewhat metal rich with [Fe/H]=-0.7. Regarding its kinematics, our tentative estimate for the proper motions is (-7.0+/-0.8, 3.5+/-0.3) mas/yr (or a tangential velocity of 382+/-79 km/s) and for the radial velocity is 45+/-5 km/s, in the solar rest frame. Conclusions. E 3 is one of the most intriguing globular clusters in the Galaxy. Having an old age and being metal rich is clearly a peculiar combination, only seen in a handful of objects like the far more conspicuous NGC 104 (47 Tucanae). In addition, its low luminosity and sparse population make it a unique template for the study of the final evolutionary phases in the life of a star cluster. Unfortunately, E 3 is among the most elusive and challenging known globular clusters because field contamination severely hampers spectroscopic studies.

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arXiv2015

Infrequent visitors of the Kozai kind: the dynamical lives of 2012 FC71, 2014 EK24, 2014 QD364, and 2014 UR

Context. Asteroids with semi-major axes very close to that of a host planet can avoid node crossings when their nodal points are at perihelion and at aphelion. This layout protects the asteroids from close encounters, and eventual collisions, with the host planet. Aims. Here, we study the short-term dynamical evolution of four recently discovered near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) --2012 FC71, 2014 EK24, 2014 QD364, and 2014 UR-- that follow very Earth-like orbits. Methods. Our analysis is based on results of direct N-body calculations that use the most updated ephemerides and include perturbations from the eight major planets, the Moon, the barycentre of the Pluto-Charon system, and the three largest asteroids. Results. These four NEAs exhibit an orbital evolution unlike any other known near-Earth object (NEO). Beyond horseshoe, tadpole, or quasi-satellite trajectories, they follow co-orbital passing orbits relative to the Earth within the Kozai domain. Our calculations show that secular interactions induce librations of their relative argument of perihelion with respect to our planet but also to Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. Secular chaos is also present. The size of this transient population is probably large. Conclusions. Although some of these NEAs can remain orbitally stable for many thousands of years, their secular dynamics are substantially more complicated than commonly thought and cannot be properly described within the framework of the three-body problem alone owing to the overlapping of multiple secular resonances. Objects in this group are amongst the most atypical NEOs regarding favourable visibility windows because these are separated in time by many decades or even several centuries.

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arXiv2014

Geometric characterization of the Arjuna orbital domain

Arjuna-type orbits are characterized by being Earth-like, having both low-eccentricity and low-inclination. Objects following these trajectories experience repeated trappings in the 1:1 commensurability with the Earth and can become temporary Trojans, horseshoe librators, quasi-satellites, and even transient natural satellites. Here, we review what we know about this peculiar dynamical group and use a Monte Carlo simulation to characterize geometrically the Arjuna orbital domain, studying its visibility both from the ground and with the European Space Agency Gaia spacecraft. The visibility analysis from the ground together with the discovery circumstances of known objects are used as proxies to estimate the current size of this population. The impact cross-section of the Earth for minor bodies in this resonant group is also investigated. We find that, for ground-based observations, the solar elongation at perigee of nearly half of these objects is less than 90 degrees. They are best observed by space-borne telescopes, but Gaia is not going to improve significantly the current discovery rate for members of this class. Our results suggest that the size of this population may have been underestimated by current models. On the other hand, their intrinsically low encounter velocities with the Earth induce a 10-1000-fold increase in the impact cross-section with respect to what is typical for objects in the Apollo or Aten asteroid populations. We estimate that their probability of capture as transient natural satellites of our planet is about 8%.

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arXiv2014

Flipping minor bodies: what comet 96P/Machholz 1 can tell us about the orbital evolution of extreme trans-Neptunian objects and the production of near-Earth objects on retrograde orbits

Nearly all known extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) have argument of perihelion close to 0 degrees. An existing observational bias strongly favours the detection of ETNOs with arguments of perihelion close to 0 degrees and 180 degrees yet no objects have been found at 180 degrees. No plausible explanation has been offered so far to account for this unusual pattern. Here, we study the dynamical evolution of comet 96P/Machholz 1, a bizarre near-Earth object (NEO) that may provide the key to explain the puzzling clustering of orbits around argument of perihelion close to 0 degrees recently found for the population of ETNOs. Comet 96P/Machholz 1 is currently locked in a Kozai resonance with Jupiter such that the value of its argument of perihelion is always close to 0 degrees at its shortest possible perihelion (highest eccentricity and lowest inclination) and about 180 degrees near its shortest aphelion (longest perihelion distance, lowest eccentricity and highest inclination). If this object is a dynamical analogue (albeit limited) of the known ETNOs, this implies that massive perturbers must keep them confined in orbital parameter space. Besides, its future dynamical evolution displays orbital flips when its eccentricity is excited to a high value and its orbit turns over by nearly 180 degrees, rolling over its major axis. This unusual behaviour, that is preserved when post-Newtonian terms are included in the numerical integrations, may also help understand the production of NEOs on retrograde orbits.

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arXiv2014

Recent multi-kiloton impact events: are they truly random?

It is customarily assumed that Earth-striking meteoroids are completely random, and that all the impacts must be interpreted as uncorrelated events distributed according to Poisson statistics. If this is correct, their impact dates must be uniformly spread throughout the year and their impact coordinates must be evenly scattered on the surface of our planet. Here, we use a time- and yield-limited sample of Earth-impacting superbolides detected since 2000 to explore statistically this critical though frequently overlooked topic. We show that the cadence of these multi-kiloton impact events is incompatible with a random fall pattern at the 0.05 significance level or better. This result is statistically robust and consistent with the observed distribution of the longitudes of the ascending nodes of near-Earth objects (NEOs). This lack of randomness is induced by planetary perturbations, in particular Jupiter's, and suggests that some of the recent, most powerful Earth impacts may be associated with resonant groups of NEOs and/or very young meteoroid streams. An intriguing consequence of this scenario is that the impact hazard of Chelyabinsk-like objects should peak at certain times in the year.

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arXiv2014

Asteroid 2014 OL339: yet another Earth quasi-satellite

Our planet has one permanently bound satellite -the Moon-, a likely large number of mini-moons or transient irregular natural satellites, and three temporary natural retrograde satellites or quasi-satellites. These quasi-moons -(164207) 2004 GU9, (277810) 2006 FV35 and 2013 LX28- are unbound companions to the Earth. The orbital evolution of quasi-satellites may transform them into temporarily bound satellites of our planet. Here, we study the dynamical evolution of the recently discovered Aten asteroid 2014 OL339 to show that it is currently following a quasi-satellite orbit with respect to the Earth. This episode started at least about 775 yr ago and it will end 165 yr from now. The orbit of this object is quite chaotic and together with 164207 are the most unstable of the known Earth quasi-satellites. This group of minor bodies is, dynamically speaking, very heterogeneous but three of them exhibit Kozai-like dynamics: the argument of perihelion of 164207 oscillates around -90 degrees, the one of 277810 librates around 180 degrees and that of 2013 LX28 remains around 0 degrees. Asteroid 2014 OL339 is not currently engaged in any Kozai-like dynamics.

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arXiv2014

Extreme trans-Neptunian objects and the Kozai mechanism: signalling the presence of trans-Plutonian planets

The existence of an outer planet beyond Pluto has been a matter of debate for decades and the recent discovery of 2012 VP113 has just revived the interest for this controversial topic. This Sedna-like object has the most distant perihelion of any known minor planet and the value of its argument of perihelion is close to 0 degrees. This property appears to be shared by almost all known asteroids with semimajor axis greater than 150 au and perihelion greater than 30 au (the extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs), and this fact has been interpreted as evidence for the existence of a super-Earth at 250 au. In this scenario, a population of stable asteroids may be shepherded by a distant, undiscovered planet larger than the Earth that keeps the value of their argument of perihelion librating around 0 degrees as a result of the Kozai mechanism. Here, we study the visibility of these ETNOs and confirm that the observed excess of objects reaching perihelion near the ascending node cannot be explained in terms of any observational biases. This excess must be a true feature of this population and its possible origin is explored in the framework of the Kozai effect. The analysis of several possible scenarios strongly suggest that at least two trans-Plutonian planets must exist.

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arXiv2014

Reconstructing the Chelyabinsk event: pre-impact orbital evolution

The Chelyabinsk superbolide was the largest known natural object to enter the Earth's atmosphere since the Tunguska event in 1908 and it has become a template to understand, manage and mitigate future impacts. Although the event has been documented in great detail, the actual pre-impact orbit of the parent body is still controversial. Here, we revisit this topic using an improved Monte Carlo approach that includes the coordinates of the impact point to compute the most probable solution for the pre-impact orbit (a = 1.62 au, e = 0.53, i = 3.97 degrees, Ω; = 326.45 and ω; = 109.71). We also check all the published solutions using a simple yet robust statistical test to show that many of them have problems to cause an impact at the right time. We use the improved orbit and N-body simulations to revisit the dynamical status of a putative Chelyabinsk asteroid family and confirm that it could be linked to resonant asteroids 2007 BD7 and 2011 EO40. In addition, and as the classification of Chelyabinsk meteorites is well established, a search for meteorite falls of the same chondrite group and petrologic type gives some evidence for the existence of an associated LL5 chondrite cluster.

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