arXiv subjects

Rachel A. Rigg

Publications and source records attributed to Rachel A. Rigg.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Predicting System Dynamics of Universal Growth Patterns in Complex Systems

Predicting dynamic behaviors is one of the goals of science in general as well as essential to many specific applications of human knowledge to real world systems. Here we introduce an analytic approach using the sigmoid growth curve to model the dynamics of individual entities within complex systems. Despite the challenges posed by nonlinearity and unpredictability in system behaviors, we demonstrate the applicability of the sigmoid curve to capture the acceleration and deceleration of growth, predicting an entitys ultimate state well in advance of reaching it. We show that our analysis can be applied to diverse systems where entities exhibit nonlinear growth using case studies of (1) customer purchasing and (2) U.S. legislation adoption. This showcases the ability to forecast months to years ahead of time, providing valuable insights for business leaders and policymakers. Moreover, our characterization of individual component dynamics offers a framework to reveal the aggregate behavior of the entire system. We introduce a classification of entities based upon similar lifepaths. This study contributes to the understanding of complex system behaviors, offering a practical tool for prediction and system behavior insight that can inform strategic decision making in multiple domains.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

U.S. Social Fragmentation at Multiple Scales

Despite global connectivity, societies seem to be increasingly polarized and fragmented. This phenomenon is rooted in the underlying complex structure and dynamics of social systems. Far from homogeneously mixing or adopting conforming views, individuals self-organize into groups at multiple scales, ranging from families up to cities and cultures. In this paper, we study the fragmented structure of the American society using mobility and communication networks obtained from geo-located social media data. We find self-organized patches with clear geographical borders that are consistent between physical and virtual spaces. The patches have multi-scale structure ranging from parts of a city up to the entire nation. Their significance is reflected in distinct patterns of collective interests and conversations. Finally, we explain the patch emergence by a model of network growth that combines mechanisms of geographical distance gravity, preferential attachment, and spatial growth. Our observations are consistent with the emergence of social groups whose separated association and communication reinforce distinct identities. Rather than eliminating borders, the virtual space reproduces them as people mirror their offline lives online. Understanding the mechanisms driving the emergence of fragmentation in hyper-connected social systems is imperative in the age of the Internet and globalization.

physics.soc-ph↗