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Rachel S. Somerville

Publications and source records attributed to Rachel S. Somerville.

At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

CANDELS: The progenitors of compact quiescent galaxies at z~2

We combine high-resolution HST/WFC3 images with multi-wavelength photometry to track the evolution of structure and activity of massive (log(M*) > 10) galaxies at redshifts z = 1.4 - 3 in two fields of the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). We detect compact, star-forming galaxies (cSFGs) whose number densities, masses, sizes, and star formation rates qualify them as likely progenitors of compact, quiescent, massive galaxies (cQGs) at z = 1.5 - 3. At z > 2 most cSFGs have specific star-formation rates (sSFR = 10^-9 yr^-1) half that of typical, massive SFGs at the same epoch, and host X-ray luminous AGN 30 times (~30%) more frequently. These properties suggest that cSFGs are formed by gas-rich processes (mergers or disk-instabilities) that induce a compact starburst and feed an AGN, which, in turn, quench the star formation on dynamical timescales (few 10^8 yr). The cSFGs are continuously being formed at z = 2 - 3 and fade to cQGs by z = 1.5. After this epoch, cSFGs are rare, thereby truncating the formation of new cQGs. Meanwhile, down to z = 1, existing cQGs continue to enlarge to match local QGs in size, while less-gas-rich mergers and other secular mechanisms shepherd (larger) SFGs as later arrivals to the red sequence. In summary, we propose two evolutionary scenarios of QG formation: an early (z > 2), fast-formation path of rapidly-quenched cSFGs that evolve into cQGs that later enlarge within the quiescent phase, and a slow, late-arrival (z < 2) path for SFGs to form QGs without passing through a compact state.

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Modeling the red sequence: Hierarchical growth yet slow luminosity evolution

We explore the effects of mergers on the evolution of massive early-type galaxies by modeling the evolution of their stellar populations in a hierarchical context. We investigate how a realistic red sequence population set up by z~1 evolves under different assumptions for the merger and star formation histories, comparing changes in color, luminosity and mass. The purely passive fading of existing red sequence galaxies, with no further mergers or star formation, results in dramatic changes at the bright end of the luminosity function and color-magnitude relation. Without mergers there is too much evolution in luminosity at a fixed space density compared to observations. The change in color and magnitude at a fixed mass resemble that of a passively evolving population that formed relatively recently, at z~2. Mergers amongst the red sequence population ("dry mergers") occurring after z=1 build up mass, counteracting the fading of the existing stellar populations to give smaller changes in both color and luminosity for massive galaxies. By allowing some galaxies to migrate from the blue cloud onto the red sequence after z=1 through gas-rich mergers, younger stellar populations are added to the red sequence. This manifestation of the progenitor bias increases the scatter in age and results in even smaller changes in color and luminosity between z=1 and z=0 at a fixed mass. The resultant evolution appears much slower, resembling the passive evolution of a population that formed at high redshift (z~3-5) and is in closer agreement with observations. Measurements of the luminosity and color evolution alone are not sufficient to distinguish between the purely passive evolution of an old population and cosmologically motivated hierarchical growth, although these scenarios have very different implications for the mass growth of early-type galaxies over the last half of cosmic history.

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The Nature of Extremely Red H-[4.5]>4 Galaxies revealed with SEDS and CANDELS

We have analysed a sample of 25 extremely red H-[4.5]>4 galaxies, selected using 4.5 micron data from the Spitzer SEDS survey and deep H-band data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) CANDELS survey, over ~180 square arcmin of the UKIDSS Ultra Deep Survey (UDS) field. Our aim is to investigate the nature of this rare population of mid-infrared (mid-IR) sources that display such extreme near-to-mid-IR colours. Using up to 17-band photometry (U through 8.0 microns), we have studied in detail their spectral energy distributions, including possible degeneracies in the photometric redshift/internal extinction (zphot-Av) plane. Our sample appears to include sources of very different nature. Between 45% and 75% of them are dust-obscured, massive galaxies at 3 300 microJy, which at 3 5) sources at zphot<1. Finally, we analyse in detail two zphot~6 galaxy candidates, and discuss their plausibility and implications. Overall, our red galaxy sample contains the tip of the iceberg of a larger population of z>3 galaxies to be discovered with the future James Webb Space Telescope.

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Physical properties of Herschel selected galaxies in a semi-analytic galaxy formation model

[Abridged] We make use of a semi-analytic cosmological model that includes simple prescriptions for dust attenuation and emission to make predictions for the observable and physical properties of galaxies that may be detected by the recently launched Herschel Space Observatory in deep fields such as GOODS-Herschel. We compare our predictions for differential galaxy number counts in the PACS (100 & 160) and SPIRE (250, 350, and 500 micron) bands with available observations. We find very good agreement with the counts in the PACS bands, for the overall counts and for galaxies binned by redshift at z< 2. At z > 2 our model underpredicts the number of bright galaxies by a factor of ten. The agreement is much worse for all three SPIRE bands, and becomes progressively worse with increasing wavelength. We discuss a number of possible reasons for these discrepancies, and hypothesize that the effect of blending on the observational flux estimates is likely to be the dominant issue. We note that the PACS number counts are relatively robust to changes in the dust emission templates, while the predicted SPIRE number counts are more template dependent. We present quantitative predictions for the relationship between the observed PACS 160 and SPIRE 250 micron fluxes and physical quantities such as halo mass, stellar mass, cold gas mass, star formation rate, and total infrared (IR) luminosity, at different redshifts. We also present quantitative predictions for the correlation between PACS 160 micron flux and the probability that a galaxy has experienced a recent major or minor merger. Although our models predict a strong correlation between these quantities, such that more IR-luminous galaxies are more likely to be merger-driven, we find that more than half of all high redshift IR-luminous galaxies detected by Herschel are able to attain their high star formation rates without enhancement by a merger.

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On the Evolution of the Star Formation Rate Function of Massive Galaxies. Constraints at 0.4<z<1.8 from the GOODS-MUSIC Catalogue

[abridged] We study the evolution of the Star Formation Rate Function (SFRF) of massive galaxies over the 0.4 1.e10 Msun range and determine the SFRF using the 1/Vmax algorithm. We define simulated galaxy catalogues based on three different semi-analytical models of galaxy formation and evolution. We show that the theoretical SFRFs are well described by a double power law functional form and its redshift evolution is approximated with high accuracy by a pure evolution of the typical SFR. We find good agreement between model predictions and the high-SFR end of the SFRF, when the observational errors on the SFR are taken into account. However, the observational SFRF is characterised by a double peaked structure, which is absent in its theoretical counterparts. At z>1.0 the observed SFRF shows a relevant density evolution, which is not reproduced by SAMs, due to the well known overprediction of intermediate mass galaxies at z~2. The agreement at the low-SFR end is poor: all models overpredict the space density of SFR~1 Msun/yr and no model reproduces the double peaked shape of the observational SFRF. If confirmed by deeper IR observations, this discrepancy will provide a key constraint on theoretical modelling of star formation and stellar feedback.

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CANDELS: The Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey

The Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS) is designed to document the first third of galactic evolution, over the approximate redshift (z) range 8--1.5. It will image >250,000 distant galaxies using three separate cameras on the Hubble Space Telescope, from the mid-ultraviolet to the near-infrared, and will find and measure Type Ia supernovae at z>1.5 to test their accuracy as standardizable candles for cosmology. Five premier multi-wavelength sky regions are selected, each with extensive ancillary data. The use of five widely separated fields mitigates cosmic variance and yields statistically robust and complete samples of galaxies down to a stellar mass of 10^9 M_\odot to z \approx 2, reaching the knee of the ultraviolet luminosity function (UVLF) of galaxies to z \approx 8. The survey covers approximately 800 arcmin^2 and is divided into two parts. The CANDELS/Deep survey (5σ point-source limit H=27.7 mag) covers \sim 125 arcmin^2 within GOODS-N and GOODS-S. The CANDELS/Wide survey includes GOODS and three additional fields (EGS, COSMOS, and UDS) and covers the full area to a 5σ point-source limit of H \gtrsim 27.0 mag. Together with the Hubble Ultra Deep Fields, the strategy creates a three-tiered "wedding cake" approach that has proven efficient for extragalactic surveys. Data from the survey are nonproprietary and are useful for a wide variety of science investigations. In this paper, we describe the basic motivations for the survey, the CANDELS team science goals and the resulting observational requirements, the field selection and geometry, and the observing design. The Hubble data processing and products are described in a companion paper.

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CANDELS: Constraining the AGN-Merger Connection with Host Morphologies at z~2

Using HST/WFC3 imaging taken as part of the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS), we examine the role that major galaxy mergers play in triggering active galactic nuclei (AGN) activity at z~2. Our sample consists of 72 moderate-luminosity (Lx ~ 1E42-1E44 erg/s) AGN at 1.5<z<2.5 that are selected using the 4 Msec Chandra observations in the Chandra Deep Field South, the deepest X-ray observations to date. Employing visual classifications, we have analyzed the rest-frame optical morphologies of the AGN host galaxies and compared them to a mass-matched control sample of 216 non-active galaxies at the same redshift. We find that most of the AGN reside in disk galaxies (51.4%), while a smaller percentage are found in spheroids (27.8%). Roughly 16.7% of the AGN hosts have highly disturbed morphologies and appear to be involved in a major merger or interaction, while most of the hosts (55.6%) appear relatively relaxed and undisturbed. These fractions are statistically consistent with the fraction of control galaxies that show similar morphological disturbances. These results suggest that the hosts of moderate-luminosity AGN are no more likely to be involved in an ongoing merger or interaction relative to non-active galaxies of similar mass at z~2. The high disk fraction observed among the AGN hosts also appears to be at odds with predictions that merger-driven accretion should be the dominant AGN fueling mode at z~2, even at moderate X-ray luminosities. Although we cannot rule out that minor mergers are responsible for triggering these systems, the presence of a large population of relatively undisturbed disk-like hosts suggests that secular processes play a greater role in fueling AGN activity at z~2 than previously thought.

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The Major and Minor Galaxy Merger Rates at z < 1.5

Calculating the galaxy merger rate requires both a census of galaxies identified as merger candidates, and a cosmologically-averaged `observability' timescale T_obs(z) for identifying galaxy mergers. While many have counted galaxy mergers using a variety of techniques, T_obs(z) for these techniques have been poorly constrained. We address this problem by calibrating three merger rate estimators with a suite of hydrodynamic merger simulations and three galaxy formation models. We estimate T_obs(z) for (1) close galaxy pairs with a range of projected separations, (2) the morphology indicator G-M20, and (3) the morphology indicator asymmetry A. Then we apply these timescales to the observed merger fractions at z < 1.5 from the recent literature. When our physically-motivated timescales are adopted, the observed galaxy merger rates become largely consistent. The remaining differences between the galaxy merger rates are explained by the differences in the range of mass-ratio measured by different techniques and differing parent galaxy selection. The major merger rate per unit co-moving volume for samples selected with constant number density evolves much more strongly with redshift (~ (1+z)^(+3.0 \pm 1.1)) than samples selected with constant stellar mass or passively evolving luminosity (~ (1+z)^(+0.1 \pm 0.4)). We calculate the minor merger rate (1:4 < M_{sat}/M_{primary} <~ 1:10) by subtracting the major merger rate from close pairs from the `total' merger rate determined by G-M20. The implied minor merger rate is ~3 times the major merger rate at z ~ 0.7, and shows little evolution with redshift.

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The effects of a hot gaseous halo on disc thickening in galaxy minor mergers

We employ hydrodynamical simulations to study the effects of dissipational gas physics on the vertical heating and thickening of disc galaxies during minor mergers. For the first time we present a suite of simulations that includes a diffuse, rotating, cooling, hot gaseous halo, as predicted by cosmological hydrodynamical simulations as well as models of galaxy formation. We study the effect of this new gaseous component on the vertical structure of a Milky Way-like stellar disc during 1:10 and 1:5 mergers. For 1:10 mergers we find no increased final thin disc scale height compared to the isolated simulation, leading to the conclusion that thin discs can be present even after a 1:10 merger if a reasonable amount of hot gas is present. The reason for this is the accretion of new cold gas, leading to the formation of a massive new thin stellar disc that dominates the surface brightness profile. In a previous study, in which we included only cold gas in the disk, we showed that the presence of cold gas decreased the thickening by a minor merger relative to the no-gas case. Here, we show that the evolution of the scale height in the presences of a cooling hot halo is dominated by the formation of the new stellar disc. In this scenario, the thick disc is the old stellar disc that has been thickened in a minor merger at z>1, while the thin disc is the new stellar disc that reforms after this merger. In addition, we study the evolution of the scale height during a 1:5 merger and find that a thin disc can be present even after this merger, provided enough hot gas is available. The final scale height in our simulations depends on the mass of the hot gaseous halo, the efficiency of the winds and the merger mass ratio. We find post-merger values in the range 0.5<z0<1.0 kpc in good agreement with observational constraints by local galaxies.

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Extragalactic Background Light and Gamma-Ray Attenuation

Data from (non-) attenuation of gamma rays from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and gamma ray bursts (GRBs) give upper limits on the extragalactic background light (EBL) from the UV to the mid-IR that are only a little above the lower limits from observed galaxies. These upper limits now rule out some EBL models and purported observations, with improved data likely to provide even stronger constraints. We present EBL calculations both based on multiwavelength observations of thousands of galaxies and also based on semi-analytic models, and show that they are consistent with these lower limits from observed galaxies and with the gamma-ray upper limit constraints. Such comparisons "close the loop" on cosmological galaxy formation models, since they account for all the light, including that from galaxies too faint to see. We compare our results with those of other recent works, and discuss the implications of these new EBL calculations for gamma ray attenuation. Catching a few GRBs with groundbased atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope (ACT) arrays or water Cherenkov detectors could provide important new constraints on the high-redshift star formation history of the universe.

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Evaluating and Improving Semi-analytic modeling of Dust in Galaxies based on Radiative Transfer Calculations II: Dust Emission in the Infrared

Interstellar dust grains are responsible for modifying the spectral energy distribution (SED) of galaxies, both absorbing starlight at UV and optical wavelengths and converting this energy into thermal emission in the infrared. The detailed description of these phenomena is of fundamental importance in order to compare the predictions of theoretical models of galaxy formation and evolution with the most recent observations in the infrared region. In this paper we compare the results of GRASIL, a code explicitly solving for the equation of radiative transfer in a dusty medium, with the predictions of a variety of IR template libraries. We employ star formation history samples extracted from the semi-analytical galaxy formation model MORGANA to create libraries of synthetic SEDs from the near- to the far-infrared. We consider model predictions at different redshift ranges to explore any possible influence in the shape and normalization of the SEDs due to the expected evolution of the galaxy properties. We compute the total absorbed starlight predicted by GRASIL at optical wavelengths to statistically compare the synthetic SEDs with the selected IR templates. We show that synthetic SEDs at a given total infrared luminosity are predicted to be systematically different at different redshift and for different properties of the underlying model galaxy. However, we determine spectral regions where the agreement between the results of radiative transfer and IR templates is good in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of the luminosity functions). Moreover, we highlight some potentially relevant discrepancies between the different approaches, both in the region dominated by PAH emission and at sub-mm wavelengths. These results determine potentially critical issues in the infrared luminosity functions as predicted by semi-analytical models coupled with different IR flux estimators.

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The effects of a hot gaseous halo in galaxy major mergers

Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations as well as observations indicate that spiral galaxies are comprised of five different components: dark matter halo, stellar disc, stellar bulge, gaseous disc and gaseous halo. While the first four components have been extensively considered in numerical simulations of binary galaxy mergers, the effect of a hot gaseous halo has usually been neglected even though it can contain up to 80% of the total gas within the galaxy virial radius. We present a series of hydrodynamic simulations of major mergers of disc galaxies, that for the first time include a diffuse, rotating, hot gaseous halo. Through cooling and accretion, the hot halo can dissipate and refuel the cold gas disc before and after a merger. This cold gas can subsequently form stars, thus impacting the morphology and kinematics of the remnant. Simulations of isolated systems with total mass M~10^12Msun show a nearly constant star formation rate of ~5Msun/yr if the hot gaseous halo is included, while the star formation rate declines exponentially if it is neglected. We conduct a detailed study of the star formation efficiency during mergers and find that the presence of a hot gaseous halo reduces the starburst efficiency (e=0.5) compared to simulations without a hot halo (e=0.68). Moreover we find cases where the stellar mass of the merger remnant is lower than the sum of the stellar mass of the two progenitor galaxies when evolved in isolation. This suggests a revision to semi-analytic galaxy formation models which assume that a merger always leads to enhanced star formation. We show that adding the hot gas component has a significant effect on the kinematics and internal structure of the merger remnants, like an increased abundance of fast rotators and an r^(1/4) surface brightness profile at small scales.

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The dependence of AGN activity on stellar and halo mass in Semi-Analytic Models

AGN feedback is believed to play an important role in shaping a variety of observed galaxy properties, as well as the evolution of their stellar masses and star formation rates. In particular, in the current theoretical paradigm of galaxy formation, AGN feedback is believed to play a crucial role in regulating the levels of activity in galaxies, in relatively massive halos at low redshift. Only in recent years, however, has detailed statistical information on the dependence of galaxy activity on stellar mass, parent halo mass and hierarchy has become available. In this paper, we compare the fractions of galaxies belonging to different activity classes (star-forming, AGN and radio active) with predictions from four different and independently developed semi-analytical models. We adopt empirical relations to convert physical properties into observables (H_alpha emission lines, OIII line strength and radio power). We demonstrate that all models used in this study reproduce the overall distributions of galaxies belonging to different activity classes as a function of stellar mass and halo mass: star forming galaxies and the strongest radio sources are preferentially associated with low-mass and high-mass galaxies/halos respectively. However, model predictions differ from observational measurements in a number of ways. All models used in our study predict that almost every >1.e12 Msun dark matter halo and/or >1.e11 Msun galaxy should host a bright radio source, while only a small fraction of galaxies belong to this class in the data. In addition, radio brightness is expected to depend strongly on the mass of the parent halo mass in the models, while strong and weak radio galaxies are found in similar environments in data. Our results highlight that the distribution of AGN as a function of stellar mass provides one of the most promising discriminants between different gas accretion schemes.

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Improving the Estimation of Star formation Rates and Stellar Population Ages of High-redshift Galaxies from Broadband Photometry

We explore methods to improve the estimates of star formation rates and mean stellar population ages from broadband photometry of high redshift star-forming galaxies. We use synthetic spectral templates with a variety of simple parametric star formation histories to fit broadband spectral energy distributions. These parametric models are used to infer ages, star formation rates and stellar masses for a mock data set drawn from a hierarchical semi-analytic model of galaxy evolution. Traditional parametric models generally assume an exponentially declining rate of star-formation after an initial instantaneous rise. Our results show that star formation histories with a much more gradual rise in the star formation rate are likely to be better templates, and are likely to give better overall estimates of the age distribution and star formation rate distribution of Lyman break galaxies. For B- and V-dropouts, we find the best simple parametric model to be one where the star formation rate increases linearly with time. The exponentially-declining model overpredicts the age by 100 % and 120 % for B- and V-dropouts, on average, while for a linearly-increasing model, the age is overpredicted by 9 % and 16 %, respectively. Similarly, the exponential model underpredicts star-formation rates by 56 % and 60 %, while the linearly-increasing model underpredicts by 15 % 22 %, respectively. For U-dropouts, the models where the star-formation rate has a peak (near z ~ 3) provide the best match for age -- overprediction is reduced from 110 % to 26 % -- and star-formation rate -- underprediction is reduced from 58 % to 22 %. We classify different types of star-formation histories in the semi-analytic models and show how the biases behave for the different classes. We also provide two-band calibration formulae for stellar mass and star formation rate estimations.

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Mergers in Lambda-CDM: Uncertainties in Theoretical Predictions and Interpretations of the Merger Rate

Different methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy merger rates. We examine and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Different halo merger rates and subhalo 'destruction' rates agree to within a factor ~2 given proper care in definitions. If however (sub)halo masses are not appropriately defined or are under-resolved, the major merger rate can be dramatically suppressed. The dominant differences in galaxy merger rates owe to baryonic physics. Hydrodynamic simulations without feedback and older models that do not agree with the observed galaxy mass function propagate factor ~5 bias in the resulting merger rates. However, if the model matches the galaxy mass function, properties of central galaxies are sufficiently converged to give small differences in merger rates. But variations in baryonic physics of satellites also have dramatic effects. The known problem of satellite 'over-quenching' in most semi-analytic models (SAMs), whereby SAM satellites are too efficiently stripped of gas, could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Fixing the satellite properties to observations tends to predict higher merger rates, but with factor ~2 empirical uncertainties. Choice of mass ratio definition matters: at low masses, most true major mergers (in baryonic/dynamical galaxy mass) will appear to be minor mergers in their stellar or luminosity mass ratio. Observations and models using these criteria may underestimate major merger rates by factors ~5. Orbital parameters and gas fractions also introduce factor ~3 differences in amount of bulge formed by mergers, even for fixed mass ratio encounters.

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The merger-driven evolution of massive galaxies

We explore the rate and impact of galaxy mergers on the massive galaxy population using the amplitude of the two-point correlation function on small scales for M > 5e10 M_sun galaxies from the COSMOS and COMBO-17 surveys. Using a pair fraction derived from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as a low-redshift benchmark, the large survey area at intermediate redshifts allows us to determine the evolution of the close pair fraction with unprecedented accuracy for a mass-selected sample: we find that the fraction of galaxies more massive than 5e10M_sun in pairs separated by less than 30 kpc in 3D space evolves as F(z) = (0.0130+/-0.0019)x(1+z)^1.21+/-0.25 between z = 0 and z = 1.2. Assuming a merger time scale of 0.5 Gyrs, the inferred merger rate is such that galaxies with mass in excess of 1e11 M_sun have undergone, on average, 0.5 (0.7) mergers involving progenitor galaxies both more massive than 5e10 M_sun since z = 0.6 (1.2). We also study the number density evolution of massive red sequence galaxies using published luminosity functions and constraints on the M/L evolution from the fundamental plane. Moreover, we demonstrate that the measured merger rate of massive galaxies is sufficient to explain this observed number density evolution in massive red sequence galaxies since z = 1.

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Galactic chemical evolution in hierarchical formation models - II. The Intracluster Medium

We use the cosmological semi-analytic model (SAM) for galaxy formation presented in Paper I to study the metallicities and abundance ratios of the intracluster medium (ICM) within the hierarchical structure formation paradigm. By requiring a slightly flat IMF (x=1.15) and a two-population delay-time-distribution (DTD) for SN Ia explosions we found previously that this model is able to reproduce the abundance ratios and supernova rates of early-type galaxies in the local Universe. Predictions for elemental abundances in the ICM pose a further test of the model. We find that with the fiducial model from Paper I the overall metal content of the ICM is too low, although the abundance ratios are in good agreement with the data. However, we find that allowing a fraction of the metal-enriched material ejected by stars to be deposited directly into the hot ICM, instead of being deposited into the cold ISM, appears to be a plausible and physically-motivated solution.

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A Cosmic Variance Cookbook

Deep pencil beam surveys (<1 deg^2) are of fundamental importance for studying the high-redshift universe. However, inferences about galaxy population properties are in practice limited by 'cosmic variance'. This is the uncertainty in observational estimates of the number density of galaxies arising from the underlying large-scale density fluctuations. This source of uncertainty can be significant, especially for surveys which cover only small areas and for massive high-redshift galaxies. Cosmic variance for a given galaxy population can be determined using predictions from cold dark matter theory and the galaxy bias. In this paper we provide tools for experiment design and interpretation. For a given survey geometry we present the cosmic variance of dark matter as a function of mean redshift z and redshift bin size Dz. Using a halo occupation model to predict galaxy clustering, we derive the galaxy bias as a function of mean redshift for galaxy samples of a given stellar mass range. In the linear regime, the cosmic variance of these galaxy samples is the product of the galaxy bias and the dark matter cosmic variance. We present a simple recipe using a fitting function to compute cosmic variance as a function of the angular dimensions of the field, z, Dz and stellar mass m*. We also provide tabulated values and a software tool. We find that for GOODS at z=2 and with Dz=0.5 the relative cosmic variance of galaxies with m*>10^11 Msun is ~38%, while it is ~27% for GEMS and ~12% for COSMOS. For galaxies of m*~10^10 Msun the relative cosmic variance is ~19% for GOODS, ~13% for GEMS and ~6% for COSMOS. This implies that cosmic variance is a significant source of uncertainty at z=2 for small fields and massive galaxies, while for larger fields and intermediate mass galaxies cosmic variance is less serious.

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