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Raeid Saqur

Publications and source records attributed to Raeid Saqur.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

PIVOT: Bridging Black-Scholes Implied-Volatility and Price Objectives via Differentiable J\"ackel Operator

Modern option-learning systems operate in two coordinates: price space, where markets quote and no-arbitrage constraints are most naturally enforced, and implied volatility (IV) space, where volatility surfaces are smoothed, regularized, and evaluated. The bottleneck is interface, not approximation: J\"ackel's seminal "Let's Be Rational" (LBR) solver already inverts the Black-Scholes price to machine precision efficiently. What is missing is a differentiable layer that preserves LBR in the forward pass and avoids backpropagating through its branch logic. Such a layer must also confront the unavoidable singularity of the inverse map in the low-vega regime, where the sensitivity 1/vega diverges as vega -> 0. We close this gap with PIVOT, the Price-Implied-Volatility Objective Translator. PIVOT keeps the LBR forward pass intact and supplies the backward pass by implicit differentiation through the smooth Black-Scholes/Black-76 price map, with an explicit gating contract: invalid domains return NaN, well-conditioned rows receive the exact 1/vega gradient, and low-vega rows are attenuated rather than silently regularized. On a single H100, a fused Triton kernel reaches 1.79e9 IV/s at machine precision (9.3e-14 max relative error vs. the reference C solver); end-to-end label generation sustains 48.9M/s on synthetic chains and 16.6M/s on SPX OptionMetrics. In a HyperIV-style one-day reproduction on SPX, PIVOT-augmented objectives Pareto-dominate the baselines, reducing held-out price MAE by up to 43.4% and the strongest three-seed gated objective improving price MAE by 38.8% and IV MAE by 21.3% jointly; cross-asset results on RUT, VIX, and NDX show directional price-MAE gains of 40.1%, 24.2%, and 16.7%, while an ungated IV-roundtrip control collapses to a degenerate near-zero surface, confirming the gate as a correctness contract rather than a tuning knob.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2026

Universal Time Series Generation with Neural Controlled Differential Equations

Recent work on the sequence universality of State Space Models (SSMs) has introduced efficient, maximally expressive continuous-time approaches for time-series modelling. While these works focus on discriminative settings, we extend this perspective to generative time-series modelling by proving that maximally expressive Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs) are universal time-series generators, in the sense that they can approximate the induced path laws of continuous causal pushforwards on compact latent sets in $W_\infty$. Building on these theoretical results, we propose Generative SLiCEs (G-SLiCEs), a maximally expressive continuous-time model for flow matching on path-space. Empirically, we show that expressivity improves performance in probabilistic forecasting and downstream tasks, while retaining the advantages of continuous-time models such as generalising to arbitrary observation grids. This is particularly beneficial for irregular grids, where fixed-grid models often struggle.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SANOS Smooth strictly Arbitrage-free Non-parametric Option Surfaces

We present a simple, numerically efficient but highly flexible non-parametric method to construct representations of option price surfaces which are both smooth and strictly arbitrage-free across time and strike. The method can be viewed as a smooth generalization of the widely-known linear interpolation scheme, and retains the simplicity and transparency of that baseline. Calibration of the model to observed market quotes is formulated as a linear program, allowing bid-ask spreads to be incorporated directly via linear penalties or inequalities, and delivering materially lower computational cost than most of the currently available implied-volatility surface fitting routines. As a further contribution, we derive an equivalent parameterization of the proposed surface in terms of strictly positive "discrete local volatility" variables. This yields, to our knowledge, the first construction of smooth, strictly arbitrage-free option price surfaces while requiring only trivial parameter constraints (positivity). We illustrate the approach using S&P 500 index options

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arXiv2026

Fast-Vollib: A Fast Implied Volatility Library for Python with PyTorch, JAX, and CUDA Fused-Kernel Backends

We present fast-vollib, an open-source Python library that provides high-performance European option pricing, implied volatility (IV) computation, and Greeks under the Black-76, Black-Scholes, and Black-Scholes-Merton models. The library is designed as a drop-in alternative to the de-facto-standard py_vollib and py_vollib_vectorized packages, with pluggable PyTorch and JAX execution backends, a CUDA fused-kernel Triton contribution for batched IV workloads, and a compatibility-first public API. In addition to a vectorized Halley-method IV solver, fast-vollib ships an experimental, fully-vectorized implementation of J\"ackel's "Let's Be Rational" (LBR) algorithm with NumPy/Numba, torch.compile, JAX, and Triton single-pass GPU kernels for batched option chains. This note announces the library and describes its public API surface, with source, documentation, and packaging artifacts available at: GitHub (https://github.com/raeidsaqur/fast-vollib), Docs (https://raeidsaqur.github.io/fast-vollib/), PyPI (https://pypi.org/project/fast-vollib/).

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2026

Seeking SOTA: Time-Series Forecasting Must Adopt Taxonomy-Specific Evaluation to Dispel Illusory Gains

We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods. We demonstrate that these "standard" datasets often exhibit dominant autocorrelation patterns and seasonal cycles that can be effectively captured by simpler linear or statistical models, rendering complex deep learning architectures frequently no more performant than their classical counterparts for these specific data characteristics, and raising questions as to whether any marginal improvements justify the significant increase in computational overhead and model complexity. We call on the community to (I) retire or substantially augment current benchmarks with datasets exhibiting a wider spectrum of non-stationarities, such as structural breaks, time-varying volatility, and concept drift, and less predictable dynamics drawn from diverse real-world domains, and (II) require every deep learning submission to include robust classical and simple baselines, appropriately chosen for the specific characteristics of the downstream tasks' time series. By doing so, we will help ensure that reported gains reflect genuine scientific methodological advances rather than artifacts of benchmark selection favoring models adept at learning repetitive patterns.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Contrastive Similarity Learning for Market Forecasting: The ContraSim Framework

We introduce the Contrastive Similarity Space Embedding Algorithm (ContraSim), a novel framework for uncovering the global semantic relationships between daily financial headlines and market movements. ContraSim operates in two key stages: (I) Weighted Headline Augmentation, which generates augmented financial headlines along with a semantic fine-grained similarity score, and (II) Weighted Self-Supervised Contrastive Learning (WSSCL), an extended version of classical self-supervised contrastive learning that uses the similarity metric to create a refined weighted embedding space. This embedding space clusters semantically similar headlines together, facilitating deeper market insights. Empirical results demonstrate that integrating ContraSim features into financial forecasting tasks improves classification accuracy from WSJ headlines by 7%. Moreover, leveraging an information density analysis, we find that the similarity spaces constructed by ContraSim intrinsically cluster days with homogeneous market movement directions, indicating that ContraSim captures market dynamics independent of ground truth labels. Additionally, ContraSim enables the identification of historical news days that closely resemble the headlines of the current day, providing analysts with actionable insights to predict market trends by referencing analogous past events.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2025

Filtered not Mixed: Stochastic Filtering-Based Online Gating for Mixture of Large Language Models

We propose MoE-F - a formalized mechanism for combining $N$ pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for online time-series prediction by adaptively forecasting the best weighting of LLM predictions at every time step. Our mechanism leverages the conditional information in each expert's running performance to forecast the best combination of LLMs for predicting the time series in its next step. Diverging from static (learned) Mixture of Experts (MoE) methods, our approach employs time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts. By framing the expert selection problem as a finite state-space, continuous-time Hidden Markov model (HMM), we can leverage the Wohman-Shiryaev filter. Our approach first constructs N parallel filters corresponding to each of the $N$ individual LLMs. Each filter proposes its best combination of LLMs, given the information that they have access to. Subsequently, the N filter outputs are optimally aggregated to maximize their robust predictive power, and this update is computed efficiently via a closed-form expression, generating our ensemble predictor. Our contributions are: **(I)** the MoE-F plug-and-play filtering harness algorithm, **(II)** theoretical optimality guarantees of the proposed filtering-based gating algorithm (via optimality guarantees for its parallel Bayesian filtering and its robust aggregation steps), and **(III)** empirical evaluation and ablative results using state-of-the-art foundational and MoE LLMs on a real-world __Financial Market Movement__ task where MoE-F attains a remarkable 17\% absolute and 48.5\% relative F1 measure improvement over the next best performing individual LLM expert predicting short-horizon market movement based on streaming news. Further, we provide empirical evidence of substantial performance gains in applying MoE-F over specialized models in the long-horizon time-series forecasting domain.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Higher-Order Transformer Derivative Estimates for Explicit Pathwise Learning Guarantees

An inherent challenge in computing fully-explicit generalization bounds for transformers involves obtaining covering number estimates for the given transformer class $T$. Crude estimates rely on a uniform upper bound on the local-Lipschitz constants of transformers in $T$, and finer estimates require an analysis of their higher-order partial derivatives. Unfortunately, these precise higher-order derivative estimates for (realistic) transformer models are not currently available in the literature as they are combinatorially delicate due to the intricate compositional structure of transformer blocks. This paper fills this gap by precisely estimating all the higher-order derivatives of all orders for the transformer model. We consider realistic transformers with multiple (non-linearized) attention heads per block and layer normalization. We obtain fully-explicit estimates of all constants in terms of the number of attention heads, the depth and width of each transformer block, and the number of normalization layers. Further, we explicitly analyze the impact of various standard activation function choices (e.g. SWISH and GeLU). As an application, we obtain explicit pathwise generalization bounds for transformers on a single trajectory of an exponentially-ergodic Markov process valid at a fixed future time horizon. We conclude that real-world transformers can learn from $N$ (non-i.i.d.) samples of a single Markov process's trajectory at a rate of ${O}(\operatorname{polylog}(N)/\sqrt{N})$.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

What Teaches Robots to Walk, Teaches Them to Trade too -- Regime Adaptive Execution using Informed Data and LLMs

Machine learning techniques applied to the problem of financial market forecasting struggle with dynamic regime switching, or underlying correlation and covariance shifts in true (hidden) market variables. Drawing inspiration from the success of reinforcement learning in robotics, particularly in agile locomotion adaptation of quadruped robots to unseen terrains, we introduce an innovative approach that leverages world knowledge of pretrained LLMs (aka. 'privileged information' in robotics) and dynamically adapts them using intrinsic, natural market rewards using LLM alignment technique we dub as "Reinforcement Learning from Market Feedback" (**RLMF**). Strong empirical results demonstrate the efficacy of our method in adapting to regime shifts in financial markets, a challenge that has long plagued predictive models in this domain. The proposed algorithmic framework outperforms best-performing SOTA LLM models on the existing (FLARE) benchmark stock-movement (SM) tasks by more than 15\% improved accuracy. On the recently proposed NIFTY SM task, our adaptive policy outperforms the SOTA best performing trillion parameter models like GPT-4. The paper details the dual-phase, teacher-student architecture and implementation of our model, the empirical results obtained, and an analysis of the role of language embeddings in terms of Information Gain.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2024

NIFTY Financial News Headlines Dataset

We introduce and make publicly available the NIFTY Financial News Headlines dataset, designed to facilitate and advance research in financial market forecasting using large language models (LLMs). This dataset comprises two distinct versions tailored for different modeling approaches: (i) NIFTY-LM, which targets supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of LLMs with an auto-regressive, causal language-modeling objective, and (ii) NIFTY-RL, formatted specifically for alignment methods (like reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF)) to align LLMs via rejection sampling and reward modeling. Each dataset version provides curated, high-quality data incorporating comprehensive metadata, market indices, and deduplicated financial news headlines systematically filtered and ranked to suit modern LLM frameworks. We also include experiments demonstrating some applications of the dataset in tasks like stock price movement and the role of LLM embeddings in information acquisition/richness. The NIFTY dataset along with utilities (like truncating prompt's context length systematically) are available on Hugging Face at https://huggingface.co/datasets/raeidsaqur/NIFTY.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2024

L(u)PIN: LLM-based Political Ideology Nowcasting

The quantitative analysis of political ideological positions is a difficult task. In the past, various literature focused on parliamentary voting data of politicians, party manifestos and parliamentary speech to estimate political disagreement and polarization in various political systems. However previous methods of quantitative political analysis suffered from a common challenge which was the amount of data available for analysis. Also previous methods frequently focused on a more general analysis of politics such as overall polarization of the parliament or party-wide political ideological positions. In this paper, we present a method to analyze ideological positions of individual parliamentary representatives by leveraging the latent knowledge of LLMs. The method allows us to evaluate the stance of politicians on an axis of our choice allowing us to flexibly measure the stance of politicians in regards to a topic/controversy of our choice. We achieve this by using a fine-tuned BERT classifier to extract the opinion-based sentences from the speeches of representatives and projecting the average BERT embeddings for each representative on a pair of reference seeds. These reference seeds are either manually chosen representatives known to have opposing views on a particular topic or they are generated sentences which where created using the GPT-4 model of OpenAI. We created the sentences by prompting the GPT-4 model to generate a speech that would come from a politician defending a particular position.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Large Language Models are Fixated by Red Herrings: Exploring Creative Problem Solving and Einstellung Effect using the Only Connect Wall Dataset

The quest for human imitative AI has been an enduring topic in AI research since its inception. The technical evolution and emerging capabilities of the latest cohort of large language models (LLMs) have reinvigorated the subject beyond academia to the cultural zeitgeist. While recent NLP evaluation benchmark tasks test some aspects of human-imitative behaviour (e.g., BIG-bench's 'human-like behavior' tasks), few, if not none, examine creative problem solving abilities. Creative problem solving in humans is a well-studied topic in cognitive neuroscience with standardized tests that predominantly use the ability to associate (heterogeneous) connections among clue words as a metric for creativity. Exposure to misleading stimuli - distractors dubbed red herrings - impede human performance in such tasks via the fixation effect and Einstellung paradigm. In cognitive neuroscience studies, such fixations are experimentally induced by pre-exposing participants to orthographically similar incorrect words to subsequent word-fragments or clues. The popular British quiz show Only Connect's Connecting Wall segment essentially mimics Mednick's Remote Associates Test (RAT) formulation with built-in, deliberate red herrings, which makes it an ideal proxy dataset to explore and study fixation effect and Einstellung paradigm from cognitive neuroscience in LLMs. In this paper we present the novel Only Connect Wall (OCW) dataset and report results from our evaluation of selected pre-trained language models and LLMs on creative problem solving tasks like grouping clue words by heterogeneous connections, and identifying correct open knowledge domain connections in respective groups. We synthetically generate two additional datasets: OCW-Randomized, OCW-WordNet to further analyze our red-herrings hypothesis in language models. The code and link to the dataset are available at https://github.com/TaatiTeam/OCW.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2022

Reward Learning using Structural Motifs in Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The Inverse Reinforcement Learning (\textit{IRL}) problem has seen rapid evolution in the past few years, with important applications in domains like robotics, cognition, and health. In this work, we explore the inefficacy of current IRL methods in learning an agent's reward function from expert trajectories depicting long-horizon, complex sequential tasks. We hypothesize that imbuing IRL models with structural motifs capturing underlying tasks can enable and enhance their performance. Subsequently, we propose a novel IRL method, SMIRL, that first learns the (approximate) structure of a task as a finite-state-automaton (FSA), then uses the structural motif to solve the IRL problem. We test our model on both discrete grid world and high-dimensional continuous domain environments. We empirically show that our proposed approach successfully learns all four complex tasks, where two foundational IRL baselines fail. Our model also outperforms the baselines in sample efficiency on a simpler toy task. We further show promising test results in a modified continuous domain on tasks with compositional reward functions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

CLEVR Parser: A Graph Parser Library for Geometric Learning on Language Grounded Image Scenes

The CLEVR dataset has been used extensively in language grounded visual reasoning in Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) domains. We present a graph parser library for CLEVR, that provides functionalities for object-centric attributes and relationships extraction, and construction of structural graph representations for dual modalities. Structural order-invariant representations enable geometric learning and can aid in downstream tasks like language grounding to vision, robotics, compositionality, interpretability, and computational grammar construction. We provide three extensible main components - parser, embedder, and visualizer that can be tailored to suit specific learning setups. We also provide out-of-the-box functionality for seamless integration with popular deep graph neural network (GNN) libraries. Additionally, we discuss downstream usage and applications of the library, and how it accelerates research for the NLP research community.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2020

Ethics of Artificial Intelligence in Surgery

Here we discuss the four key principles of bio-medical ethics from surgical context. We elaborate on the definition of 'fairness' and its implications in AI system design, with taxonomy of algorithmic biases in AI. We discuss the shifts in ethical paradigms as the degree of autonomy in AI systems continue to evolve. We also emphasize the need for continuous revisions of ethics in AI due to evolution and dynamic nature of AI systems and technologies.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2018

CapsGAN: Using Dynamic Routing for Generative Adversarial Networks

In this paper, we propose a novel technique for generating images in the 3D domain from images with high degree of geometrical transformations. By coalescing two popular concurrent methods that have seen rapid ascension to the machine learning zeitgeist in recent years: GANs (Goodfellow et. al.) and Capsule networks (Sabour, Hinton et. al.) - we present: \textbf{CapsGAN}. We show that CapsGAN performs better than or equal to traditional CNN based GANs in generating images with high geometric transformations using rotated MNIST. In the process, we also show the efficacy of using capsules architecture in the GANs domain. Furthermore, we tackle the Gordian Knot in training GANs - the performance control and training stability by experimenting with using Wasserstein distance (gradient clipping, penalty) and Spectral Normalization. The experimental findings of this paper should propel the application of capsules and GANs in the still exciting and nascent domain of 3D image generation, and plausibly video (frame) generation.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2018

ReGAN: RE[LAX|BAR|INFORCE] based Sequence Generation using GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have seen steep ascension to the peak of ML research zeitgeist in recent years. Mostly catalyzed by its success in the domain of image generation, the technique has seen wide range of adoption in a variety of other problem domains. Although GANs have had a lot of success in producing more realistic images than other approaches, they have only seen limited use for text sequences. Generation of longer sequences compounds this problem. Most recently, SeqGAN (Yu et al., 2017) has shown improvements in adversarial evaluation and results with human evaluation compared to a MLE based trained baseline. The main contributions of this paper are three-fold: 1. We show results for sequence generation using a GAN architecture with efficient policy gradient estimators, 2. We attain improved training stability, and 3. We perform a comparative study of recent unbiased low variance gradient estimation techniques such as REBAR (Tucker et al., 2017), RELAX (Grathwohl et al., 2018) and REINFORCE (Williams, 1992). Using a simple grammar on synthetic datasets with varying length, we indicate the quality of sequences generated by the model.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2018

PrivySense: $\underline{Pri}$ce $\underline{V}$olatilit$\underline{y}$ based $\underline{Sen}$timent$\underline{s}$ $\underline{E}$stimation from Financial News using Machine Learning

As machine learning ascends the peak of computer science zeitgeist, the usage and experimentation with sentiment analysis using various forms of textual data seems pervasive. The effect is especially pronounced in formulating securities trading strategies, due to a plethora of reasons including the relative ease of implementation and the abundance of academic research suggesting automated sentiment analysis can be productively used in trading strategies. The source data for such analyzers ranges a broad spectrum like social media feeds, micro-blogs, real-time news feeds, ex-post financial data etc. The abstract technique underlying these analyzers involve supervised learning of sentiment classification where the classifier is trained on annotated source corpus, and accuracy is measured by testing how well the classifiers generalizes on unseen test data from the corpus. Post training, and validation of fitted models, the classifiers are used to execute trading strategies, and the corresponding returns are compared with appropriate benchmark returns (for e.g., the S&P500 returns). In this paper, we introduce $\underline{a\ novel\ technique\ of\ using\ price\ volatilities\ to\ empirically\ determine\ the\ sentiment\ in\ news\ data}$, instead of the traditional reverse approach. We also perform meta sentiment analysis by evaluating the efficacy of existing sentiment classifiers and the precise definition of sentiment from securities trading context. We scrutinize the efficacy of using human-annotated sentiment classification and the tacit assumptions that introduces subjective bias in existing financial news sentiment classifiers.

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