arXiv subjects

Rafael Lima

Publications and source records attributed to Rafael Lima.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Fine-Grained $ε$-Margin Closed-Form Stabilization of Parametric Hawkes Processes

Hawkes Processes have undergone increasing popularity as default tools for modeling self- and mutually exciting interactions of discrete events in continuous-time event streams. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) unconstrained optimization procedure over parametrically assumed forms of the triggering kernels of the corresponding intensity function are a widespread cost-effective modeling strategy, particularly suitable for data with few and/or short sequences. However, the MLE optimization lacks guarantees, except for strong assumptions on the parameters of the triggering kernels, and may lead to instability of the resulting parameters .In the present work, we show how a simple stabilization procedure improves the performance of the MLE optimization without these overly restrictive assumptions.This stabilized version of the MLE is shown to outperform traditional methods over sequences of several different lengths.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Hawkes Processes Modeling, Inference and Control: An Overview

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a surge of different tools and algorithms have showed their way up to top-tier Machine Learning conferences. This work aims to give a broad view of the recent advances on the Hawkes Processes modeling and inference to a newcomer to the field.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Make Hawkes Processes Explainable by Decomposing Self-Triggering Kernels

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better predict future events. In this paper, we present a new framework to decompose discrete events with a composition of multiple self-triggering kernels. The composition scheme allows us to decompose empirical covariance densities into the sum or the product of base kernels which are easily interpretable. Here, we present the first multiplicative kernel composition methods for Hawkes Processes. We demonstrate that the new automatic kernel decomposition procedure outperforms the existing methods on the prediction of discrete events in real-world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Hawkes Process Kernel Structure Parametric Search with Renormalization Factors

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred through an Unconstrained Optimization-based method for maximization of its corresponding Loglikelihood function. Unfortunately, the non-convexity of this procedure, along with the ill-conditioning of the initialization of the self- triggering function parameters, may lead to a consequent instability of this method. Here, we introduce Renormalization Factors, over four types of parametric kernels, as a solution to this instability. These factors are derived for each of the self-triggering function parameters, and also for more than one parameter considered jointly. Experimental results show that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method shows improved performance with Renormalization Factors over sets of sequences of several different lengths.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Improving Imprecise Compressive Sensing Models

Random sampling in compressive sensing (CS) enables the compression of large amounts of input signals in an efficient manner, which is useful for many applications. CS reconstructs the compressed signals exactly with overwhelming probability when incoming data can be sparsely represented with a few components. However, the theory of CS framework including random sampling has been focused on exact recovery of signal; impreciseness in signal recovery has been neglected. This can be problematic when there is uncertainty in the number of sparse components such as signal sparsity in dynamic systems that can change over time. We present a new theoretical framework that handles uncertainty in signal recovery from the perspective of recovery success and quality. We show that the signal recovery success in our model is more accurate than the success probability analysis in the CS framework. Our model is then extended to the case where the success or failure of signal recovery can be relaxed. We represent the number of components included in signal recovery with a right-tailed distribution and focus on recovery quality. Experimental results confirm the accuracy of our model in dynamic systems.

cs.IT↗