arXiv subjects

Rafael Mantilla Montalvo

Publications and source records attributed to Rafael Mantilla Montalvo.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems, cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 what have we learned? The rise of social machines and connected devices in pandemic management following the concepts of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

A comprehensive bibliographic review with R statistical methods of the COVID pandemic in PubMed literature and Web of Science Core Collection, supported with Google Scholar search. In addition, a case study review of emerging new approaches in different regions, using medical literature, academic literature, news articles and other reliable data sources. Public responses of mistrust about privacy data misuse differ across countries, depending on the chosen public communication strategy.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Cyber Risk at the Edge: Current and future trends on Cyber Risk Analytics and Artificial Intelligence in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0 Supply Chains

Digital technologies have changed the way supply chain operations are structured. In this article, we conduct systematic syntheses of literature on the impact of new technologies on supply chains and the related cyber risks. A taxonomic/cladistic approach is used for the evaluations of progress in the area of supply chain integration in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, with a specific focus on the mitigation of cyber risks. An analytical framework is presented, based on a critical assessment with respect to issues related to new types of cyber risk and the integration of supply chains with new technologies. This paper identifies a dynamic and self-adapting supply chain system supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) and real-time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. The system is integrated into a cognition engine that enables predictive cyber risk analytics with real-time intelligence from IoT networks at the edge. This enhances capacities and assist in the creation of a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when AI/ML technologies are migrated to the periphery of IoT networks.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Future developments in standardisation of cyber risk in the Internet of Things (IoT)

In this research article, we explore the use of a design process for adapting existing cyber risk assessment standards to allow the calculation of economic impact from IoT cyber risk. The paper presents a new model that includes a design process with new risk assessment vectors, specific for IoT cyber risk. To design new risk assessment vectors for IoT, the study applied a range of methodologies, including literature review, empirical study and comparative study, followed by theoretical analysis and grounded theory. An epistemological framework emerges from applying the constructivist grounded theory methodology to draw on knowledge from existing cyber risk frameworks, models and methodologies. This framework presents the current gaps in cyber risk standards and policies, and defines the design principles of future cyber risk impact assessment. The core contribution of the article therefore, being the presentation of a new model for impact assessment of IoT cyber risk.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Future developments in cyber risk assessment for the internet of things

This article is focused on the economic impact assessment of Internet of Things (IoT) and its associated cyber risks vectors and vertices - a reinterpretation of IoT verticals. We adapt to IoT both the Cyber Value at Risk model, a well-established model for measuring the maximum possible loss over a given time period, and the MicroMort model, a widely used model for predicting uncertainty through units of mortality risk. The resulting new IoT MicroMort for calculating IoT risk is tested and validated with real data from the BullGuard's IoT Scanner - over 310,000 scans - and the Garner report on IoT connected devices. Two calculations are developed, the current state of IoT cyber risk and the future forecasts of IoT cyber risk. Our work therefore advances the efforts of integrating cyber risk impact assessments and offer a better understanding of economic impact assessment for IoT cyber risk.

cs.CY↗