Rafael Seidi Oyamada | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Feature Attribution-Based Explainability Analysis of Deep Learning Models in Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Domain Adaptation of LLMs for Process Data

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a prominent area of interest across various research domains, including Process Mining (PM). Current applications in PM have predominantly centered on prompt engineering strategies or the transformation of event logs into narrative-style datasets, thereby exploiting the semantic capabilities of LLMs to address diverse tasks. In contrast, this study investigates the direct adaptation of pretrained LLMs to process data without natural language reformulation, motivated by the fact that these models excel in generating sequences of tokens, similar to the objective in PM. More specifically, we focus on parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques to mitigate the computational overhead typically associated with such models. Our experimental setup focuses on Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM), and considers both single- and multi-task predictions. The results demonstrate a potential improvement in predictive performance over state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) approaches and recent narrative-style-based solutions, particularly in the multi-task setting. Additionally, our fine-tuned models exhibit faster convergence and require significantly less hyperparameter optimization.

cs.CL↗