arXiv subjects

Rafal Angryk

Publications and source records attributed to Rafal Angryk.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

MSR-IVA: Masked Structural Residual Independent Vector Analysis for State-Aware Fusion of Structural MRI and Dynamic Functional Network Connectivity

Multimodal fusion of structural MRI (sMRI) and dynamic functional network connectivity (dFNC) can reveal how brain structure relates to changing functional states. When the same structural latent representation is coupled with multiple states, applying independent vector analysis (IVA) separately to each state can produce unrelated structural decompositions, while forcing identical decompositions may suppress state-specific relationships. In addition, not every subject expresses every dynamic state. We propose masked structural residual IVA (MSR-IVA), a state-aware framework that combines a shared structural representation with state-specific residual adaptations and masks for incomplete state expression. On an Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort, MSR-IVA improved matched source coupling by 6.5% and reduced unmatched dependence by 15.7% relative to the independent pairwise IVA baseline. Among subjects expressing both states, mean absolute cross-state structural source correlation was 0.9177 for MSR-IVA versus 0.2978 for no sharing, demonstrating controlled structural sharing that preserves source correspondence while allowing state-specific adaptation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Developing Machine Learning Models of Subgrid Turbulent Transport for Quiet Sun 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations

Numerical modeling of solar plasma dynamics is affected by the resolution of the computational grid. This often requires the estimation of subgrid processes related to the small-scale flow turbulence, as these processes play a critical role in momentum transport and energy dissipation. In this work, we investigate the use of deep learning techniques as surrogate models for subgrid turbulent transport in realistic hydrodynamic simulations of the quiet Sun. We describe the development of a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to capture spatial dependencies in 3D velocity fields, leveraging different activation functions, as well as different architectural designs. We specifically focus on the prediction of Reynolds stress tensor components. The resultant model integrates velocity vector components and scalar features, such as plasma density, to enhance prediction accuracy. We compare the 3DCNN model to other types of models, such as a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and physics-based Gradient and Smagorinsky models, and show that the final model design reconstructs the Reynolds stress tensor components more accurately. Specifically, a 3DCNN model achieves an average improvement of ~31% on diagonal components and ~8% on the off-diagonal components of the stress tensor. Additionally, we show that applying a logarithmic data transformation of the target stress tensor components, to handle heavily skewed data, improves model performance. Results demonstrate the potential of deep learning, particularly CNNs, to approximate Reynolds stress tensor components for the upper solar convection zone and lower atmosphere, making them a viable candidate for modeling subgrid processes and a promising alternative to traditional turbulence models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Cluster-Weighted Training of Deep Surrogate Models for Subgrid Turbulent Transport

Turbulence in the solar interior and atmosphere plays a crucial role in energy transport, yet modeling its subgrid-scale effects remains a major challenge. This study leverages machine learning (ML) models to predict components of the Reynolds stress tensor using high-resolution StellarBox simulations of the quiet Sun. Previously, we have compared a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) against physics-based baselines to achieve a lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) and better generalization across various heights and depths in the solar atmosphere. To enhance learning, in this work, we investigate cluster-weighted training using K-Means and Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC). By weighing the loss function based on cluster-specific prediction errors, we direct the model's attention to high-error regions. It significantly improves CNN performance, achieving 34% lower MSE and a significantly higher R2 score indicating that integrating deterministic clustering with ML is a promising technique for modeling subgrid turbulence, in particular, and regression in diverse environments, in general.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Describing the swdatatoolkit: A Space Weather Data Analysis Library

swdatatoolkit is a Python-based scientific software library designed to support the acquisition, preprocessing, and analysis of solar and space weather data. The toolkit consolidates functionality across multiple domains, including data downloading from established heliophysics sources, image preprocessing, edge detection, image texture quantification, magnetic field analysis, and the derivation of higher-level parameters commonly used in solar physics research. Its modular structure reflects the heterogeneous nature of space weather data and enables reproducible, extensible workflows for both exploratory analysis and machine-learning-driven studies. This paper presents an overview of the library's available capabilities, its scientific motivations, and its role in the broader space weather research ecosystem.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Toward Data-Driven Surrogates of the Solar Wind with Spherical Fourier Neural Operator

The solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Variations such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections can disrupt satellites, power grids, and communications, making accurate modeling essential for space weather forecasting. While 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are used to simulate and investigate these variations in the solar wind, they tend to be computationally expensive, limiting their usefulness in investigating the impacts of boundary condition uncertainty. In this work, we develop a surrogate for steady state solar wind modeling, using a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). We compare our model to a previously developed numerical surrogate for this task called HUX, and we show that the SFNO achieves comparable or better performance across several metrics. Though HUX retains advantages in physical smoothness, this underscores the need for improved evaluation criteria rather than a flaw in SFNO. As a flexible and trainable approach, SFNO enables efficient real-time forecasting and can improve with more data. The source code and more visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Autoregressive Surrogate Modeling of the Solar Wind with Spherical Fourier Neural Operator

The solar wind, a continuous outflow of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Accurate prediction of features such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections is critical for space weather forecasting, but traditional three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are computationally expensive, limiting rapid exploration of boundary condition uncertainties. We introduce the first autoregressive machine learning surrogate for steady-state solar wind radial velocity using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). By predicting a limited radial range and iteratively propagating the solution outward, the model improves accuracy in distant regions compared to a single-step approach. Compared with the numerical HUX surrogate, SFNO demonstrates superior or comparable performance while providing a flexible, trainable, and data-driven alternative, establishing a novel methodology for high-fidelity solar wind modeling. The source code and additional visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity-autoregressive.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

EdgeAttNet: Towards Barb-Aware Filament Segmentation

Accurate segmentation of solar filaments in H-alpha observations is critical for determining filament chirality, a key factor in the behavior of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). However, existing methods often fail to capture fine-scale filament structures, particularly barbs, due to a limited ability to model long-range dependencies and spatial detail. We propose EdgeAttNet, a segmentation architecture built on a U-Net backbone by introducing a novel, learnable edge map derived directly from the input image. This edge map is incorporated into the model by linearly transforming the attention Key and Query matrices with the edge information, thereby guiding the self-attention mechanism at the network's bottleneck to more effectively capture filament boundaries and barbs. By explicitly integrating this structural prior into the attention computations, EdgeAttNet enhances spatial sensitivity and segmentation accuracy while reducing the number of trainable parameters. Trained end-to-end, EdgeAttNet outperforms U-Net and other U-Net-based transformer baselines on the MAGFILO dataset. It achieves higher segmentation accuracy and significantly better recognition of filament barbs, with faster inference performance suitable for practical deployment.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Operational and Exploration Requirements and Research Capabilities for SEP Environment Monitoring and Forecasting

Mitigating risks posed by solar energetic particles (SEPs) to operations and exploration in space and Earth's atmosphere motivates the development of advanced, synergistic approaches for monitoring, modeling, and analyzing space weather conditions. The consequences of SEPs and their interactions with the near-Earth space environment are numerous, including elevated radiation levels at aviation altitudes during major events, satellite damage, and health risks to astronauts, resulting in economic impacts and potential hazards for space exploration. This contribution will present a high-level overview of the operational requirements and research capabilities for SEP event environment monitoring and forecasting that were highlighted during a workshop at Georgia State University, held on October 16-19, 2024. Specifically, it summarizes the presented activities concerning the following: (1) Identifying needs for SEP event forecasting and nowcasting, including practical forecast timeframes; (2) Reviewing availability and coverage of the current observational data and identifying tangible data resources for research, operations and the R2O2R loop; (3) Mapping existing forecast capabilities and identifying meaningful modeling advances for research and operations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

All-Clear Flare Prediction Using Interval-based Time Series Classifiers

An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable predictive results. While many flare prediction studies do not address this problem directly, all-clear predictions can be useful in operational context. However, in all-clear predictions, finding the right balance between avoiding false negatives (misses) and reducing the false positives (false alarms) is often challenging. Our study focuses on training and testing a set of interval-based time series classifiers named Time Series Forest (TSF). These classifiers will be used towards building an all-clear flare prediction system by utilizing multivariate time series data. Throughout this paper, we demonstrate our data collection, predictive model building and evaluation processes, and compare our time series classification models with baselines using our benchmark datasets. Our results show that time series classifiers provide better forecasting results in terms of skill scores, precision and recall metrics, and they can be further improved for more precise all-clear forecasts by tuning model hyperparameters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Machine Learning in Heliophysics and Space Weather Forecasting: A White Paper of Findings and Recommendations

The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers, expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Roadmap for Reliable Ensemble Forecasting of the Sun-Earth System

The authors of this report met on 28-30 March 2018 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey, for a 3-day workshop that brought together a group of data providers, expert modelers, and computer and data scientists, in the solar discipline. Their objective was to identify challenges in the path towards building an effective framework to achieve transformative advances in the understanding and forecasting of the Sun-Earth system from the upper convection zone of the Sun to the Earth's magnetosphere. The workshop aimed to develop a research roadmap that targets the scientific challenge of coupling observations and modeling with emerging data-science research to extract knowledge from the large volumes of data (observed and simulated) while stimulating computer science with new research applications. The desire among the attendees was to promote future trans-disciplinary collaborations and identify areas of convergence across disciplines. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks and workshop progress reports, interleaved with a set of breakout sessions focused on specific topics of interest. Each breakout group generated short documents, listing the challenges identified during their discussions in addition to possible ways of attacking them collectively. These documents were combined into this report-wherein a list of prioritized activities have been collated, shared and endorsed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

On the Prediction of >100 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Events Using GOES Satellite Data

Solar energetic particles are a result of intense solar events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These latter events all together can cause major disruptions to spacecraft that are in Earth's orbit and outside of the magnetosphere. In this work we are interested in establishing the necessary conditions for a major geo-effective solar particle storm immediately after a major flare, namely the existence of a direct magnetic connection. To our knowledge, this is the first work that explores not only the correlations of GOES X-ray and proton channels, but also the correlations that happen across all the proton channels. We found that proton channels auto-correlations and cross-correlations may also be precursors to the occurrence of an SEP event. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting >100 MeV SEP events from a multivariate time series perspective using easily interpretable decision tree models.

astro-ph.SR↗