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Rahul G. Krishnan

Publications and source records attributed to Rahul G. Krishnan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models

Modeling long-sequence medical time series data, such as electrocardiograms (ECG), poses significant challenges due to high sampling rates, multichannel signal complexity, inherent noise, and limited labeled data. While recent self-supervised learning (SSL) methods, based on various encoder architectures such as convolutional neural networks, have been proposed to learn representations from unlabeled data, they often fall short in capturing long-range dependencies and noise-invariant features. Structured state space models (S4) excel at long-sequence modeling, but existing S4 architectures fail to capture the unique characteristics of multichannel physiological waveforms. In this work, we propose SL-S4Wave, a self-supervised learning framework that combines contrastive learning with a tailored encoder built on structured state space models. The encoder incorporates multi-layer global convolution using multiscale subkernels, enabling the capture of both fine-grained local patterns and long-range temporal dependencies in noisy, high-resolution multichannel waveforms. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that SL-S4Wave (1) consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and self-supervised baselines in a challenging arrhythmia detection task, (2) achieves high performance with significantly fewer labeled examples, showcasing strong label efficiency, and (3) maintains robust performance on long waveform segments, highlighting its capacity to model complex temporal dynamics in long sequences that most existing approaches fail to efficiently model, and (4) transfers effectively to unseen arrhythmia types, underscoring its robust cross-domain generalization. We additionally evaluate SL-S4Wave on multiple EEG tasks, achieving superior performance over strong baselines, demonstrating generalizability of our approach beyond cardiac waveforms.

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arXiv2026

Frequentist Consistency of Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Causal Inference

Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem. However, it is unclear whether PFN-based causal estimators provide uncertainty quantification that is consistent with classical frequentist estimators. In this work, we address this gap by analyzing the frequentist consistency of PFN-based estimators for the average treatment effect (ATE). (1) We show that existing PFNs, when interpreted as Bayesian ATE estimators, can exhibit prior-induced confounding bias: the prior is not asymptotically overwritten by data, which, in turn, prevents frequentist consistency. (2) As a remedy, we suggest employing a calibration procedure based on a one-step posterior correction (OSPC). We show that the OSPC helps to restore frequentist consistency and can yield a semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for calibrated PFNs (i.e., both the calibrated PFN-based estimators and the classical semi-parametric efficient estimators converge in distribution with growing data size). (3) Finally, we implement OSPC through tailoring martingale posteriors on top of the PFNs. In this way, we are able to recover functional nuisance posteriors from PFNs, required by the OSPC. In multiple (semi-)synthetic experiments, PFNs calibrated with our martingale posterior OSPC produce ATE uncertainty that (i) asymptotically matches frequentist uncertainty and (ii) is well calibrated in finite samples in comparison to other Bayesian ATE estimators.

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arXiv2026

Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks. Inference code (including trained model weights) can be found at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/CCPFN-inference .

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arXiv2026

A generalizable 3D framework and model for self-supervised learning in medical imaging

Current self-supervised learning methods for 3D medical imaging rely on simple pretext formulations and organ- or modality-specific datasets, limiting their generalizability and scalability. We present 3DINO, a cutting-edge SSL method adapted to 3D datasets, and use it to pretrain 3DINO-ViT: a general-purpose medical imaging model, on an exceptionally large, multimodal, and multi-organ dataset of ~100,000 3D medical imaging scans from over 10 organs. We validate 3DINO-ViT using extensive experiments on numerous medical imaging segmentation and classification tasks. Our results demonstrate that 3DINO-ViT generalizes across modalities and organs, including out-of-distribution tasks and datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on the majority of evaluation metrics and labeled dataset sizes. Our 3DINO framework and 3DINO-ViT will be made available to enable research on 3D foundation models or further finetuning for a wide range of medical imaging applications.

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arXiv2026

SparseOpt: Addressing Normalization-induced Gradient Skew in Sparse Training

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) methods train neural networks by maintaining sparsity while dynamically adapting the network topology. Despite the promise of reduced computation, DST methods converge significantly slower than dense training, often requiring comparable training time to achieve similar accuracy. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that Batch Normalization (BN) adversely affects sparse training, and propose SparseOpt, a sparsity-aware optimizer, to address this. Experiments on ResNet models across CIFAR-100 and ImageNet demonstrate consistently faster convergence and improved generalization with our proposed method. Our work highlights the limitations of current normalization layers in sparse training and provides the first systematic study of the interaction between Batch Normalization, sparse layers, and DST, taking a significant step toward making DST practically competitive with dense training.

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arXiv2026

Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation

Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.

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arXiv2026

From Residuals to Reasons: LLM-Guided Mechanism Inference from Tabular Data

A persistent challenge in machine learning for scientific applications is jointly achieving prediction and understanding. Statistical models excel on structured data but operate as black boxes, while existing interpretability methods are largely inspective: they answer "which features matter?" but do not articulate how features interact or refine explanations iteratively alongside human understanding. Asking an LLM to predict the target directly forces it to search the entire output space; we instead anchor predictions with a base model and ask the LLM the narrower question of what that model is missing. We introduce Multi-Agent Residual In-Context Learning (MARICL), an agentic framework in which LLM agents analyze where a base-model fails, hypothesize missing structure from high-residual examples provided in context, and produce explicit correction terms refined through multi-turn textual gradient optimization. Across nine benchmarks spanning scientific, biomedical, socioeconomic, and synthetic settings, MARICL improves consistently over its base model on all datasets. To test whether these corrections reflect real structure or batch-specific noise, we freeze formulas learned on one experimental batch of the Cell-Free Protein dataset and apply them (with no retraining and no further LLM calls) to held-out batches. Within the same reagent protocol, the frozen formulas improve predictions in over 92% of cases; across a different protocol, they fail systematically. The success boundary aligns with the biochemistry, not the batch count; direct evidence of mechanistic generalization.

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arXiv2026

Modular Multimodal Classification Without Fine-Tuning: A Simple Compositional Approach

We introduce CoMET, \textit{\textbf{C}omposing \textbf{M}odality \textbf{E}ncoders with \textbf{T}abular foundation models}, a simple yet highly competitive method for multimodal classification: pass each modality through a frozen pre-trained backbone, compress the resulting embeddings with PCA, and concatenate as input into a Tabular Foundation Model (TFM) for prediction. We show that PCA alone suffices to act as an adaptor yielding strong, robust performance across modalities. When the \texttt{CLS} tokens of the foundation model align poorly with downstream tasks, we propose \textbf{PALPooling}, a lightweight adaptive token pooler that consistently improves representation quality. By composing strong frozen representation learning backbones with TFMs, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse multimodal benchmarks without any training. On hierarchical tasks with large fine-grained class spaces, our approach enables fast and scalable classification, handling datasets with over 500,000 samples and 2,000 classes without any fine-tuning. Overall, our results show that the composition of foundation models is a simple, yet powerful, out-of-the-box solution for multimodal learning, challenging the necessity of complex, end-to-end training pipelines for new problems.

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arXiv2026

SurvivalPFN: Amortizing Survival Prediction via In-Context Bayesian Inference

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

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arXiv2026

IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound estimands are required -- e.g., Balke-Pearl equations in binary IV -- and even when available, designing accurate estimators requires manual effort tailored to each estimand. While direct Bayesian inference of the causal effects, instead of the bounds, circumvents these challenges, it is often computationally intensive and suffers from high prior sensitivity or under-dispersed posteriors. As a remedy, we introduce IV-ICL, an amortized Bayesian in-context learning method that learns the marginal posterior distribution of the causal effects directly and derives bounds as its quantiles. Unlike standard variational inference that optimizes exclusive KL divergence, amortized Bayesian inference minimizes the expected inclusive KL, a mass-covering objective. We empirically observe that optimizing inclusive KL can recover the entire identified set across diverse data-generating processes, while exclusive-KL (e.g. with variational inference) of the same Bayesian formulation collapses onto a single mode and fails to cover the identified set. We evaluate IV-ICL on synthetic and semi-synthetic IV benchmarks and show it produces intervals that are more reliably valid and more informative compared to efficient semi-parametric, Bayesian, and plug-in baselines, at 20-500x lower inference time. Beyond methodology, we propose a procedure to convert randomized controlled trials into IV benchmarks with provably preserved ground-truth causal effects that enables a more realistic evaluation of partial-identification methods.

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arXiv2026

SurF: A Generative Model for Multivariate Irregular Time Series Forecasting

Irregularly sampled multivariate event streams remain a difficult modality for generative modeling: tokenization-based approaches break down when inter-event intervals vary by orders of magnitude. We (i) propose \textbf{SurF}, a generative model that uses the Time Rescaling Theorem (TRT) as a learnable bijection between event sequences and i.i.d.\ unit-rate exponential noise, enabling a single model to be trained across heterogeneous event-stream datasets; (ii) three efficient parameterizations of the cumulative intensity that scale to long sequences; and (iii) a Transformer-based encoder for multi-dataset pretraining. On six real-world benchmarks, SurF achieves the best reported time RMSE on Earthquake, Retweet, and Taobao, and is within trial-level noise of the strongest specialist on the remaining three. Under a strict leave-one-out protocol, the held-out checkpoint beats every classical and neural-autoregressive baseline on $5/6$ datasets and beats every baseline on Amazon and Earthquake, an initial step toward foundation models over asynchronous event streams (Code is available at https://github.com/MrRezaeiUofT/SurF).

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arXiv2026

Can we generate portable representations for clinical time series data using LLMs?

Deploying clinical ML is slow and brittle: models that work at one hospital often degrade under distribution shifts at the next. In this work, we study a simple question -- can large language models (LLMs) create portable patient embeddings i.e. representations of patients enable a downstream predictor built on one hospital to be used elsewhere with minimal-to-no retraining and fine-tuning. To do so, we map from irregular ICU time series onto concise natural language summaries using a frozen LLM, then embed each summary with a frozen text embedding model to obtain a fixed length vector capable of serving as input to a variety of downstream predictors. Across three cohorts (MIMIC-IV, HIRID, PPICU), on multiple clinically grounded forecasting and classification tasks, we find that our approach is simple, easy to use and competitive with in-distribution with grid imputation, self-supervised representation learning, and time series foundation models, while exhibiting smaller relative performance drops when transferring to new hospitals. We study the variation in performance across prompt design, with structured prompts being crucial to reducing the variance of the predictive models without altering mean accuracy. We find that using these portable representations improves few-shot learning and does not increase demographic recoverability of age or sex relative to baselines, suggesting little additional privacy risk. Our work points to the potential that LLMs hold as tools to enable the scalable deployment of production grade predictive models by reducing the engineering overhead.

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arXiv2026

Mitigating Privacy Risk via Forget Set-Free Unlearning

Training machine learning models requires the storage of large datasets, which often contain sensitive or private data. Storing data is associated with a number of potential risks which increase over time, such as database breaches and malicious adversaries. Machine unlearning is the study of methods to efficiently remove the influence of training data subsets from previously-trained models. Existing unlearning methods typically require direct access to the "forget set" -- the data to be forgotten-and organisations must retain this data for unlearning rather than deleting it immediately upon request, increasing risks associated with the forget set. We introduce partially-blind unlearning -- utilizing auxiliary information to unlearn without explicit access to the forget set. We also propose a practical framework Reload, a partially-blind method based on gradient optimization and structured weight sparsification to operationalize partially-blind unlearning. We show that Reload efficiently unlearns, approximating models retrained from scratch, and outperforms several forget set-dependent approaches. On language models, Reload unlearns entities using <0.025% of the retain set and <7% of model weights in <8 minutes on Llama2-7B. In the corrective case, Reload achieves unlearning even when only 10% of corrupted data is identified.

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arXiv2026

Dialogue to Question Generation for Evidence-based Medical Guideline Agent Development

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is central to high-quality care, but remains difficult to implement in fast-paced primary care settings. Physicians face short consultations, increasing patient loads, and lengthy guideline documents that are impractical to consult in real time. To address this gap, we investigate the feasibility of using large language models (LLMs) as ambient assistants that surface targeted, evidence-based questions during physician-patient encounters. Our study focuses on question generation rather than question answering, with the aim of scaffolding physician reasoning and integrating guideline-based practice into brief consultations. We implemented two prompting strategies, a zero-shot baseline and a multi-stage reasoning variant, using Gemini 2.5 as the backbone model. We evaluated on a benchmark of 80 de-identified transcripts from real clinical encounters, with six experienced physicians contributing over 90 hours of structured review. Results indicate that while general-purpose LLMs are not yet fully reliable, they can produce clinically meaningful and guideline-relevant questions, suggesting significant potential to reduce cognitive burden and make EBM more actionable at the point of care.

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arXiv2026

MDM-Prime-v2: Binary Encoding and Index Shuffling Enable Scaling of Diffusion Language Models

Masked diffusion models (MDM) exhibit superior generalization when learned using a Partial masking scheme (Prime). This approach converts tokens into sub-tokens and models the diffusion process at the sub-token level. We identify two limitations of the MDM-Prime framework. First, we find that the functional form of the subtokenizer significantly increases the cross-entropy loss in the objective when paired with commonly used Byte-Pair-Encoding (BPE) tokenizers. Second, we lack tools to guide the hyperparameter choice of the token granularity in the subtokenizer. To address these limitations, we analyze the optimal design of the subtokenizer that minimizes MDM-Prime training objective and develop MDM-Prime-v2, a masked diffusion language model which incorporates Binary Encoding and Index Shuffling. Our analysis characterizes how token granularity and sub-token entropy influence the training objective and downstream performance, providing principled criteria for subtokenizer design. When extending the model size to 1.1B parameters, MDM-Prime-v2 demonstrates superior average zero-shot accuracy across eight commonsense reasoning benchmarks, outperforming similar-sized baselines including GPT-Neo, OPT, Pythia, Bloom, SMDM, and TinyLLaMA.

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arXiv2025

Reliably Detecting Model Failures in Deployment Without Labels

The distribution of data changes over time; models operating in dynamic environments need retraining. But knowing when to retrain, without access to labels, is an open challenge since some, but not all shifts degrade model performance. This paper formalizes and addresses the problem of post-deployment deterioration (PDD) monitoring. We propose D3M, a practical and efficient monitoring algorithm based on the disagreement of predictive models, achieving low false positive rates under non-deteriorating shifts and provides sample complexity bounds for high true positive rates under deteriorating shifts. Empirical results on both standard benchmark and a real-world large-scale internal medicine dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework and highlight its viability as an alert mechanism for high-stakes machine learning pipelines.

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arXiv2025

Physics Context Builders: A Modular Framework for Physical Reasoning in Vision-Language Models

Physical reasoning remains a significant challenge for Vision-Language Models (VLMs). This limitation arises from an inability to translate learned knowledge into predictions about physical behavior. Although continual fine-tuning can mitigate this issue, it is expensive for large models and impractical to perform repeatedly for every task. This necessitates the creation of modular and scalable ways to teach VLMs about physical reasoning. To that end, we introduce Physics Context Builders (PCBs), a modular framework where specialized smaller VLMs are fine-tuned to generate detailed physical scene descriptions. These can be used as physical contexts to enhance the reasoning capabilities of larger VLMs. PCBs enable the separation of visual perception from reasoning, allowing us to analyze their relative contributions to physical understanding. We perform experiments on CLEVRER and on Falling Tower, a stability detection dataset with both simulated and real-world scenes, to demonstrate that PCBs provide substantial performance improvements, increasing average accuracy by up to 13.8% on complex physical reasoning tasks. Notably, PCBs also show strong Sim2Real transfer, successfully generalizing from simulated training data to real-world scenes.

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arXiv2025

CausalPFN: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via In-Context Learning

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out of the box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model requires no further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN/).

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