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Rainer Arlt

Publications and source records attributed to Rainer Arlt.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Estimating meteor rates using Bayesian inference

A method for estimating the true meteor rate λ from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the adoption of Jeffreys prior, P(λ)=λ^{-0.5}, which yields an expectation value E(λ) = n+0.5 for any n \geq 0. We update the ZHR meteor activity formula accordingly, and explain how 68%- and 95%-confidence intervals can be computed.

astro-ph.EP↗

On radiation-zone dynamos

It is shown that the magnetic current-driven (`kink-type') instability produces flow and field patterns with helicity and even with α-effect but only if the magnetic background field possesses non-vanishing current helicity \bar{\vec{B}}\cdot curl \bar{\vec{B}} by itself. Fields with positive large-scale current helicity lead to negative small-scale kinetic helicity. The resulting α-effect is positive. These results are very strict for cylindric setups without z/I>-dependence of the background fields. The sign rules also hold for the more complicated cases in spheres where the toroidal fields are the result of the action of differential rotation (induced from fossil poloidal fields) at least for the case that the global rotation is switched off after the onset of the instability.

astro-ph.SR↗

First solar butterfly diagram from Schwabe's observations in 1825-1867

The original sunspot observations by Heinrich Samuel Schwabe of 1825-1867 were digitized and a first subset of spots was measured. In this initial project, we determined more than 14 000 sunspot positions and areas comprising about 11% of the total amount of spots available from that period. The resulting butterfly diagram has a typical appearance, but with evident north-south asymmetries.

astro-ph.SR↗

A solar cycle lost in 1793--1800: Early sunspot observations resolve the old mystery

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18--19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e. the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790's. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793--1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in traditional Wolf's sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of the lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, solar dynamo theories as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.

astro-ph.SR↗

The butterfly diagram in the 18th century

Digitized images of the drawings by J.C. Staudacher were used to determine sunspot positions for the period of 1749-1796. From the entire set of drawings, 6285 sunspot positions were obtained for a total of 999 days. Various methods have been applied to find the orientation of the solar disk which is not given for the vast majority of the drawings by Staudacher. Heliographic latitudes and longitudes in the Carrington rotation frame were determined. The resulting butterfly diagram shows a highly populated equator during the first two cycles (Cycles 0 and 1 in the usual counting since 1749). An intermediate period is Cycle 2, whereas Cycles 3 and 4 show a typical butterfly shape. A tentative explanation may be the transient dominance of a quadrupolar magnetic field during the first two cycles.

astro-ph↗

Differential rotation decay in the radiative envelopes of CP stars

Stars of spectral classes A and late B are almost entirely radiative. CP stars are a slowly rotating subgroup of these stars. It is possible that they possessed long-lived accretion disks in their T Tauri phase. Magnetic coupling of disk and star leads to rotational braking at the surface of the star. Microscopic viscosities are extremely small and will not be able to reduce the rotation rate of the core of the star. We investigate the question whether magneto-rotational instability can provide turbulent angular momentum transport. We illuminate the question whether or not differential rotation is present in CP stars. Numerical MHD simulations of thick stellar shells are performed. An initial differential rotation law is subject to the influence of a magnetic field. The configuration gives indeed rise to magneto-rotational instability. The emerging flows and magnetic fields transport efficiently angular momentum outwards. Weak dependence on the magnetic Prandtl number (~0.01 in stars) is found from the simulations. Since the estimated time-scale of decay of differential rotation is 10^7-10^8 yr and comparable to the life-time of A stars, we find the braking of the core to be an ongoing process in many CP stars. The evolution of the surface rotation of CP stars with age will be an observational challenge and of much value for verifying the simulations.

astro-ph↗

Physics of the solar cycle

The theory of the solar/stellar activity cycles is presented, based on the mean-field concept in magnetohydrodynamics. A new approach to the formulation of the electromotive force and the theory of differential rotation and meridional circulation is described. Dynamo cycles in the overshoot layer and distributed dynamos are compared, with the latter including the influence of meridional flow. The overshoot layer dynamo reproduces the solar cycle periods and the butterfly diagram only if alpha=0 in the convection zone (CZ). The distributed dynamo including meridional flows shows the observed butterfly diagram even with a positive dynamo-alpha in CZ. The nonlinear feedback of strong magnetic fields on differential rotation leads to grand minima in the cyclic activity similar to those observed. Our 2D model contains the large- and small-scale feedback of magnetic fields on diff. rotation and induction in a mean-field formulation (Lambda-, alpha-quenching). Grand minima may also occur if a dynamo occasionally falls below its critical eigenvalue. We never found any indication that such an on-off dynamo collapses by this effect after being excited. The full quenching of turbulence by strong magnetic fields as reduced induction (alpha) and reduced turbulent diffusivity (eta_T) is studied in 1D. We find a stronger dependence of cycle period on dynamo number compared with a pure alpha-quenching model giving a very weak cycle period dependence. Also the temporal fluctuations of alpha and eta_T from a random-vortex simulation were applied to a dynamo. Then the low `quality' of the solar cycle can be explained with a small number of giant cells as dynamo-active turbulence. The transition from almost regular magnetic oscillations (many vortices) to a more or less chaotic time series (very few vortices) is shown.

astro-ph↗