arXiv subjects

Rajat Sen

Publications and source records attributed to Rajat Sen.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Hierarchically Regularized Deep Forecasting

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy. The main challenge is to exploit the hierarchical correlations to simultaneously obtain good prediction accuracy for time series at different levels of the hierarchy. In this paper, we propose a new approach for hierarchical forecasting which consists of two components. First, decomposing the time series along a global set of basis time series and modeling hierarchical constraints using the coefficients of the basis decomposition. And second, using a linear autoregressive model with coefficients that vary with time. Unlike past methods, our approach is scalable (inference for a specific time series only needs access to its own history) while also modeling the hierarchical structure via (approximate) coherence constraints among the time series forecasts. We experiment on several public datasets and demonstrate significantly improved overall performance on forecasts at different levels of the hierarchy, compared to existing state-of-the-art hierarchical models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

On the benefits of maximum likelihood estimation for Regression and Forecasting

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target metric. The MLE approach is better suited to capture inductive biases such as prior domain knowledge in datasets, and can output post-hoc estimators at inference time that can optimize different types of target metrics. We present theoretical results to demonstrate that our approach is competitive with any estimator for the target metric under some general conditions. In two example practical settings, Poisson and Pareto regression, we show that our competitive results can be used to prove that the MLE approach has better excess risk bounds than directly minimizing the target metric. We also demonstrate empirically that our method instantiated with a well-designed general purpose mixture likelihood family can obtain superior performance for a variety of tasks across time-series forecasting and regression datasets with different data distributions.

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arXiv2021

Session-Aware Query Auto-completion using Extreme Multi-label Ranking

Query auto-completion (QAC) is a fundamental feature in search engines where the task is to suggest plausible completions of a prefix typed in the search bar. Previous queries in the user session can provide useful context for the user's intent and can be leveraged to suggest auto-completions that are more relevant while adhering to the user's prefix. Such session-aware QACs can be generated by recent sequence-to-sequence deep learning models; however, these generative approaches often do not meet the stringent latency requirements of responding to each user keystroke. Moreover, these generative approaches pose the risk of showing nonsensical queries. In this paper, we provide a solution to this problem: we take the novel approach of modeling session-aware QAC as an eXtreme Multi-Label Ranking (XMR) problem where the input is the previous query in the session and the user's current prefix, while the output space is the set of tens of millions of queries entered by users in the recent past. We adapt a popular XMR algorithm for this purpose by proposing several modifications to the key steps in the algorithm. The proposed modifications yield a 3.9x improvement in terms of Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) over the baseline XMR approach on a public search logs dataset. We are able to maintain an inference latency of less than 10 ms while still using session context. When compared against baseline models of acceptable latency, we observed a 33% improvement in MRR for short prefixes of up to 3 characters. Moreover, our model yielded a statistically significant improvement of 2.81% over a production QAC system in terms of suggestion acceptance rate, when deployed on the search bar of an online shopping store as part of an A/B test.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Contextual Bandits with Stochastic Experts

We consider the problem of contextual bandits with stochastic experts, which is a variation of the traditional stochastic contextual bandit with experts problem. In our problem setting, we assume access to a class of stochastic experts, where each expert is a conditional distribution over the arms given a context. We propose upper-confidence bound (UCB) algorithms for this problem, which employ two different importance sampling based estimators for the mean reward for each expert. Both these estimators leverage information leakage among the experts, thus using samples collected under all the experts to estimate the mean reward of any given expert. This leads to instance dependent regret bounds of $\mathcal{O}\left(λ(\pmbμ)\mathcal{M}\log T/Δ\right)$, where $λ(\pmbμ)$ is a term that depends on the mean rewards of the experts, $Δ$ is the smallest gap between the mean reward of the optimal expert and the rest, and $\mathcal{M}$ quantifies the information leakage among the experts. We show that under some assumptions $λ(\pmbμ)$ is typically $\mathcal{O}(\log N)$, where $N$ is the number of experts. We implement our algorithm with stochastic experts generated from cost-sensitive classification oracles and show superior empirical performance on real-world datasets, when compared to other state of the art contextual bandit algorithms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Top-$k$ eXtreme Contextual Bandits with Arm Hierarchy

Motivated by modern applications, such as online advertisement and recommender systems, we study the top-$k$ extreme contextual bandits problem, where the total number of arms can be enormous, and the learner is allowed to select $k$ arms and observe all or some of the rewards for the chosen arms. We first propose an algorithm for the non-extreme realizable setting, utilizing the Inverse Gap Weighting strategy for selecting multiple arms. We show that our algorithm has a regret guarantee of $O(k\sqrt{(A-k+1)T \log (|\mathcal{F}|T)})$, where $A$ is the total number of arms and $\mathcal{F}$ is the class containing the regression function, while only requiring $\tilde{O}(A)$ computation per time step. In the extreme setting, where the total number of arms can be in the millions, we propose a practically-motivated arm hierarchy model that induces a certain structure in mean rewards to ensure statistical and computational efficiency. The hierarchical structure allows for an exponential reduction in the number of relevant arms for each context, thus resulting in a regret guarantee of $O(k\sqrt{(\log A-k+1)T \log (|\mathcal{F}|T)})$. Finally, we implement our algorithm using a hierarchical linear function class and show superior performance with respect to well-known benchmarks on simulated bandit feedback experiments using extreme multi-label classification datasets. On a dataset with three million arms, our reduction scheme has an average inference time of only 7.9 milliseconds, which is a 100x improvement.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Importance Weighted Generative Networks

Deep generative networks can simulate from a complex target distribution, by minimizing a loss with respect to samples from that distribution. However, often we do not have direct access to our target distribution - our data may be subject to sample selection bias, or may be from a different but related distribution. We present methods based on importance weighting that can estimate the loss with respect to a target distribution, even if we cannot access that distribution directly, in a variety of settings. These estimators, which differentially weight the contribution of data to the loss function, offer both theoretical guarantees and impressive empirical performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Mix and Match: An Optimistic Tree-Search Approach for Learning Models from Mixture Distributions

We consider a covariate shift problem where one has access to several different training datasets for the same learning problem and a small validation set which possibly differs from all the individual training distributions. This covariate shift is caused, in part, due to unobserved features in the datasets. The objective, then, is to find the best mixture distribution over the training datasets (with only observed features) such that training a learning algorithm using this mixture has the best validation performance. Our proposed algorithm, ${\sf Mix\&Match}$, combines stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with optimistic tree search and model re-use (evolving partially trained models with samples from different mixture distributions) over the space of mixtures, for this task. We prove simple regret guarantees for our algorithm with respect to recovering the optimal mixture, given a total budget of SGD evaluations. Finally, we validate our algorithm on two real-world datasets.

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arXiv2019

Learning Unknown Service Rates in Queues: A Multi-Armed Bandit Approach

Consider a queueing system consisting of multiple servers. Jobs arrive over time and enter a queue for service; the goal is to minimize the size of this queue. At each opportunity for service, at most one server can be chosen, and at most one job can be served. Service is successful with a probability (the service probability) that is a priori unknown for each server. An algorithm that knows the service probabilities (the "genie") can always choose the server of highest service probability. We study algorithms that learn the unknown service probabilities. Our goal is to minimize queue-regret: the (expected) difference between the queue-lengths obtained by the algorithm, and those obtained by the "genie." Since queue-regret cannot be larger than classical regret, results for the standard multi-armed bandit problem give algorithms for which queue-regret increases no more than logarithmically in time. Our paper shows surprisingly more complex behavior. In particular, as long as the bandit algorithm's queues have relatively long regenerative cycles, queue-regret is similar to cumulative regret, and scales (essentially) logarithmically. However, we show that this "early stage" of the queueing bandit eventually gives way to a "late stage", where the optimal queue-regret scaling is $O(1/t)$. We demonstrate an algorithm that (order-wise) achieves this asymptotic queue-regret in the late stage. Our results are developed in a more general model that allows for multiple job classes as well.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Think Globally, Act Locally: A Deep Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting high-dimensional time series plays a crucial role in many applications such as demand forecasting and financial predictions. Modern datasets can have millions of correlated time-series that evolve together, i.e they are extremely high dimensional (one dimension for each individual time-series). There is a need for exploiting global patterns and coupling them with local calibration for better prediction. However, most recent deep learning approaches in the literature are one-dimensional, i.e, even though they are trained on the whole dataset, during prediction, the future forecast for a single dimension mainly depends on past values from the same dimension. In this paper, we seek to correct this deficiency and propose DeepGLO, a deep forecasting model which thinks globally and acts locally. In particular, DeepGLO is a hybrid model that combines a global matrix factorization model regularized by a temporal convolution network, along with another temporal network that can capture local properties of each time-series and associated covariates. Our model can be trained effectively on high-dimensional but diverse time series, where different time series can have vastly different scales, without a priori normalization or rescaling. Empirical results demonstrate that DeepGLO can outperform state-of-the-art approaches; for example, we see more than 25% improvement in WAPE over other methods on a public dataset that contains more than 100K-dimensional time series.

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arXiv2018

Noisy Blackbox Optimization with Multi-Fidelity Queries: A Tree Search Approach

We study the problem of black-box optimization of a noisy function in the presence of low-cost approximations or fidelities, which is motivated by problems like hyper-parameter tuning. In hyper-parameter tuning evaluating the black-box function at a point involves training a learning algorithm on a large data-set at a particular hyper-parameter and evaluating the validation error. Even a single such evaluation can be prohibitively expensive. Therefore, it is beneficial to use low-cost approximations, like training the learning algorithm on a sub-sampled version of the whole data-set. These low-cost approximations/fidelities can however provide a biased and noisy estimate of the function value. In this work, we incorporate the multi-fidelity setup in the powerful framework of noisy black-box optimization through tree-like hierarchical partitions. We propose a multi-fidelity bandit based tree-search algorithm for the problem and provide simple regret bounds for our algorithm. Finally, we validate the performance of our algorithm on real and synthetic datasets, where it outperforms several benchmarks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Mimic and Classify : A meta-algorithm for Conditional Independence Testing

Given independent samples generated from the joint distribution $p(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y},\mathbf{z})$, we study the problem of Conditional Independence (CI-Testing), i.e., whether the joint equals the CI distribution $p^{CI}(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y},\mathbf{z})= p(\mathbf{z}) p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{z})p(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{z})$ or not. We cast this problem under the purview of the proposed, provable meta-algorithm, "Mimic and Classify", which is realized in two-steps: (a) Mimic the CI distribution close enough to recover the support, and (b) Classify to distinguish the joint and the CI distribution. Thus, as long as we have a good generative model and a good classifier, we potentially have a sound CI Tester. With this modular paradigm, CI Testing becomes amiable to be handled by state-of-the-art, both generative and classification methods from the modern advances in Deep Learning, which in general can handle issues related to curse of dimensionality and operation in small sample regime. We show intensive numerical experiments on synthetic and real datasets where new mimic methods such conditional GANs, Regression with Neural Nets, outperform the current best CI Testing performance in the literature. Our theoretical results provide analysis on the estimation of null distribution as well as allow for general measures, i.e., when either some of the random variables are discrete and some are continuous or when one or more of them are discrete-continuous mixtures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Model-Powered Conditional Independence Test

We consider the problem of non-parametric Conditional Independence testing (CI testing) for continuous random variables. Given i.i.d samples from the joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$ of continuous random vectors $X,Y$ and $Z,$ we determine whether $X \perp Y | Z$. We approach this by converting the conditional independence test into a classification problem. This allows us to harness very powerful classifiers like gradient-boosted trees and deep neural networks. These models can handle complex probability distributions and allow us to perform significantly better compared to the prior state of the art, for high-dimensional CI testing. The main technical challenge in the classification problem is the need for samples from the conditional product distribution $f^{CI}(x,y,z) = f(x|z)f(y|z)f(z)$ -- the joint distribution if and only if $X \perp Y | Z.$ -- when given access only to i.i.d. samples from the true joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$. To tackle this problem we propose a novel nearest neighbor bootstrap procedure and theoretically show that our generated samples are indeed close to $f^{CI}$ in terms of total variational distance. We then develop theoretical results regarding the generalization bounds for classification for our problem, which translate into error bounds for CI testing. We provide a novel analysis of Rademacher type classification bounds in the presence of non-i.i.d near-independent samples. We empirically validate the performance of our algorithm on simulated and real datasets and show performance gains over previous methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Identifying Best Interventions through Online Importance Sampling

Motivated by applications in computational advertising and systems biology, we consider the problem of identifying the best out of several possible soft interventions at a source node $V$ in an acyclic causal directed graph, to maximize the expected value of a target node $Y$ (located downstream of $V$). Our setting imposes a fixed total budget for sampling under various interventions, along with cost constraints on different types of interventions. We pose this as a best arm identification bandit problem with $K$ arms where each arm is a soft intervention at $V,$ and leverage the information leakage among the arms to provide the first gap dependent error and simple regret bounds for this problem. Our results are a significant improvement over the traditional best arm identification results. We empirically show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art in the Flow Cytometry data-set, and also apply our algorithm for model interpretation of the Inception-v3 deep net that classifies images.

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arXiv2016

Contextual Bandits with Latent Confounders: An NMF Approach

Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are $L$ observed contexts and $K$ arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality $m$ ($m \ll L,K$). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the $L \times K$ mean reward matrix $\mathbf{U}$ (for each context in $[L]$ and each arm in $[K]$) factorizes into non-negative factors $\mathbf{A}$ ($L \times m$) and $\mathbf{W}$ ($m \times K$). This insight enables us to propose an $ε$-greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of $\mathcal{O}\left(L\mathrm{poly}(m, \log K) \log T \right)$ at time $T$, as compared to $\mathcal{O}(LK\log T)$ for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of $\mathcal{O}\left(Km\log T\right)$. These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2015

Detecting Sponsored Recommendations

With a vast number of items, web-pages, and news to choose from, online services and the customers both benefit tremendously from personalized recommender systems. Such systems however provide great opportunities for targeted advertisements, by displaying ads alongside genuine recommendations. We consider a biased recommendation system where such ads are displayed without any tags (disguised as genuine recommendations), rendering them indistinguishable to a single user. We ask whether it is possible for a small subset of collaborating users to detect such a bias. We propose an algorithm that can detect such a bias through statistical analysis on the collaborating users' feedback. The algorithm requires only binary information indicating whether a user was satisfied with each of the recommended item or not. This makes the algorithm widely appealing to real world issues such as identification of search engine bias and pharmaceutical lobbying. We prove that the proposed algorithm detects the bias with high probability for a broad class of recommendation systems when sufficient number of users provide feedback on sufficient number of recommendations. We provide extensive simulations with real data sets and practical recommender systems, which confirm the trade offs in the theoretical guarantees.

cs.IR↗