arXiv subjects

Rajdeep Pathak

Publications and source records attributed to Rajdeep Pathak.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ANGLE: Angular Neural Generative Learning via Engression

Circular data, representing angles or directions, are frequently encountered in computer vision, biology, geology, and meteorology. Traditional regression targets the conditional mean, which is often geometrically misleading for circular responses under multimodal, skewed, or asymmetric data structures. To address these limitations, a lightweight deep generative framework, namely ANGLE, is introduced for non-parametric distributional regression on the circle. The full conditional distribution of an angular response, given Euclidean and circular covariates, is learned through a generative map optimized via a generalized circular energy score (GCES) loss. Desirable theoretical properties, including the strict propriety of the loss and the rotational equivariance of the estimators, are established. Furthermore, both pre- and post-additive noise models are accommodated. A unified toolbox is provided for advancing previously underexplored challenges in circular statistics: extrapolation, sufficient dimension reduction, and conditional distribution equality testing. The framework's efficacy is demonstrated through extensive simulations and real-world applications. Specifically, the proposal is utilized for object pose estimation from imagery and wind direction prediction, which are integral to surveillance, autonomous vehicles, and energy systems, respectively. Superior predictive performance and robust uncertainty quantification of the proposed method in these tasks are revealed.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Reliable uncertainty quantification is paramount for forecasting multivariate time series and spatiotemporal data. While Transformer architectures excel at sequence modeling, current probabilistic approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric likelihoods or quantile-based objectives, thereby limiting their ability to capture complex joint distributions in correlated time series. To overcome these limitations, we propose \textit{Enformer} and its spatiotemporal extension, \textit{GEnformer}. These models synthesize the expressive power of Transformers with engression, a stochastic learning paradigm for modeling conditional distributions. By injecting stochastic noise and optimizing a strictly proper scoring objective, our frameworks directly learn conditional predictive distributions without imposing parametric assumptions. This design ensures the generation of coherent multivariate trajectories while maintaining the Transformer's efficacy in modeling long-range dependencies and cross-series interactions. The probabilistic capability of Enformer is achieved with an asymptotic overhead of only a constant factor over a deterministic Transformer with an identical configuration. We extensively evaluate our frameworks on prominent multivariate benchmarks for temporal dynamics and real-world epidemic datasets for spatiotemporal dynamics. Empirical results demonstrate that both frameworks yield calibrated probabilistic forecasts and consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying Membership Disclosure Risk for Tabular Synthetic Data Using Kernel Density Estimators

The use of synthetic data has become increasingly popular as a privacy-preserving alternative to sharing real datasets, especially in sensitive domains such as healthcare, finance, and demography. However, the privacy assurances of synthetic data are not absolute, and remain susceptible to membership inference attacks (MIAs), where adversaries aim to determine whether a specific individual was present in the dataset used to train the generator. In this work, we propose a practical and effective method to quantify membership disclosure risk in tabular synthetic datasets using kernel density estimators (KDEs). Our KDE-based approach models the distribution of nearest-neighbour distances between synthetic data and the training records, allowing probabilistic inference of membership and enabling robust evaluation via ROC curves. We propose two attack models: a 'True Distribution Attack', which assumes privileged access to training data, and a more realistic, implementable 'Realistic Attack' that uses auxiliary data without true membership labels. Empirical evaluations across four real-world datasets and six synthetic data generators demonstrate that our method consistently achieves higher F1 scores and sharper risk characterization than a prior baseline approach, without requiring computationally expensive shadow models. The proposed method provides a practical framework and metric for quantifying membership disclosure risk in synthetic data, which enables data custodians to conduct a post-generation risk assessment prior to releasing their synthetic datasets for downstream use. The datasets and codes for this study are available at https://github.com/PyCoder913/MIA-KDE.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point forecasts generated by spatiotemporal models are unreliable in assigning uncertainty to future epidemic events. Probabilistic forecasting of epidemics is therefore crucial for providing the best or worst-case scenarios rather than a simple, often inaccurate, point estimate. We present deep spatiotemporal engression methods to generate accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts on low-frequency epidemic datasets. The proposed methods act as distributional lenses, and out-of-sample probabilistic forecasts are generated by sampling from the trained models. Our frameworks encapsulate lightweight deep generative architectures, wherein uncertainty is quantified endogenously, driven by a pre-additive noise component during model construction. We establish geometric ergodicity and asymptotic stationarity of the spatiotemporal engression processes under mild assumptions on the network weights and pre-additive noise process. Comprehensive evaluations across six epidemiological datasets over three forecast horizons demonstrate that the proposal consistently outperforms several temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks in both point and probabilistic forecasting. Additionally, we explore the explainability of the proposal to enhance the models' practical application for informed, timely public health interventions.

stat.ML↗