arXiv subjects

Rakesh Vohra

Publications and source records attributed to Rakesh Vohra.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

One-Shot Pricing for Hands-Off-the-Wheel Advertising Markets

Per-impression auctions have long served as the allocation mechanism in online advertising. We argue that in ``hands-off-the-wheel'' (HOTW) markets, where advertisers declare budgets and ``return-on-investment'' (ROI) targets and the exchange's ML models predict click values, auctions are no longer necessary: all information required for optimal pricing is already known to the exchange, which occupies the position of a monopolist pricing against a downward-sloping demand curve. A HOTW market is a Fisher market, whose competitive equilibrium can be computed via the convex program of Eisenberg and Gale, yielding market-clearing prices and allocations satisfying all budget and ROI constraints simultaneously. This competitive-equilibrium price is revenue-optimal for the exchange among all uniform-price mechanisms: avoiding the demand reduction problem in typical uniform-price multi-unit auctions. The resulting competitive equilibrium is moreover outcome-equivalent to sequential first-price auctions with pacing, with pacing multipliers computable ex-ante by the exchange. This one-shot approach replaces millions of individual auctions with one convex program, which is not only operationally simpler than dynamically evolving bidding strategies, but revenue-optimal for the exchange, while delivering the same equilibrium outcome.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Prophet Inequalities via Linear Programming

Prophet inequalities bound the expected reward that can be obtained in a stopping problem by the optimal reward of its corresponding off-line version. We propose a systematic technique for deriving prophet inequalities for stopping problems associated with selecting a point in a polyhedron. It utilizes a reduced-form linear programming representation of the stopping problem. We illustrate the technique to derive a number of known results as well as some new ones. For instance, we prove a $\frac{1}{2}$-prophet inequality when the underlying polyhedron is an on-line polymatroid; one whose underlying submodular function depends upon the realized rewards. We also demonstrate a composition by the Minkowski sum property. If an $r-$ prophet inequality holds for polyhedra $P^1$ and $P^2$, it also holds for their Minkowski sum.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Signaling Design

We revisit the classic job-market signaling model of \cite{spence1973job}, introducing profit-seeking schools as intermediaries that design the mapping from candidates' efforts to job-market signals. Each school commits to an attendance fee and a monitoring policy. We show that, in equilibrium, a monopolist school captures the entire social surplus by committing to low information signals and charging fees that extract students' surplus from being hired. In contrast, competition shifts surplus to students, with schools vying to attract high-ability students, enabling them to distinguish themselves from their lower-ability peers. However, this increased signal informativeness leads to more wasteful effort in equilibrium, contrasting with the usual argument that competition enhances social efficiency. This result may be reversed if schools face binding fee caps or students are credit-constrained.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Bailouts in Diversified Financial Networks

Widespread default involves substantial deadweight costs which could be countered by injecting capital into failing firms. Injections have positive spillovers that can trigger a repayment cascade. But which firms should a regulator bailout so as to minimize the total injection of capital while ensuring solvency of all firms? While the problem is, in general, NP-hard, for a wide range of networks that arise from a stochastic block model, we show that the optimal bailout can be implemented by a simple policy that targets firms based on their characteristics and position in the network. Specific examples of the setting include core-periphery networks.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2024

The Development of the Reproductive Healthcare Equity Algorithm (RHEA)

After the repeal of Roe vs. Wade in June 2022, women face long-distance travel across state lines to access abortion care. For women who also face socioeconomic hardship, travel for abortion care is a significant burden. To ease this burden, abortion access nonprofits are funding and/or supplying transportation to abortion clinics. However, due to the uneven distribution of demand and supply for abortions, these nonprofits do not have efficient logistical operations. As a result, low-income, underserved women may not have access to adequate reproductive healthcare, thus widening healthcare inequity gaps. Nonprofits may also risk not serving the needs of vulnerable women without access to adequate reproductive healthcare, and in doing so, waste resources, money, and volunteer hours. To address these challenges, we create an interactive, web-based planning tool, the Reproductive Healthcare Equity Algorithm (RHEA), to guide nonprofits in strategically allocating resources and serving demand. RHEA leverages an optimization model to determine the maximum flow and minimum transportation cost to route women across a network of counties and abortion clinics, subject to transportation supply, budget, and time constraints for one day of operations for a nonprofit. In doing so, we collaborate with abortion access nonprofits to cater our model design and interface development to their needs and considerations. Ultimately, we seek to optimize resource allocation for nonprofits providing abortion care logistics and improve abortion access for low-income, underserved women.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Best vs. All: Equity and Accuracy of Standardized Test Score Reporting

We study a game theoretic model of standardized testing for college admissions. Students are of two types; High and Low. There is a college that would like to admit the High type students. Students take a potentially costly standardized exam which provides a noisy signal of their type. The students come from two populations, which are identical in talent (i.e. the type distribution is the same), but differ in their access to resources: the higher resourced population can at their option take the exam multiple times, whereas the lower resourced population can only take the exam once. We study two models of score reporting, which capture existing policies used by colleges. The first policy (sometimes known as "super-scoring") allows students to report the max of the scores they achieve. The other policy requires that all scores be reported. We find in our model that requiring that all scores be reported results in superior outcomes in equilibrium, both from the perspective of the college (the admissions rule is more accurate), and from the perspective of equity across populations: a student's probability of admission is independent of their population, conditional on their type. In particular, the false positive rates and false negative rates are identical in this setting, across the highly and poorly resourced student populations. This is the case despite the fact that the more highly resourced students can -- at their option -- either report a more accurate signal of their type, or pool with the lower resourced population under this policy.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Constrained Trading Networks

Trades based on bilateral (indivisible) contracts can be represented by a network. Vertices correspond to agents while arcs represent the non-price elements of a bilateral contract. Given prices for each arc, agents choose the incident arcs that maximize their utility. We enlarge the model to allow for polymatroidal constraints on the set of contracts that may be traded which can be interpreted as modeling limited one for-one substitution. We show that for two-sided markets there exists a competitive equilibrium however for multi-sided markets this may not be possible.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Moment Multicalibration for Uncertainty Estimation

We show how to achieve the notion of "multicalibration" from Hébert-Johnson et al. [2018] not just for means, but also for variances and other higher moments. Informally, it means that we can find regression functions which, given a data point, can make point predictions not just for the expectation of its label, but for higher moments of its label distribution as well-and those predictions match the true distribution quantities when averaged not just over the population as a whole, but also when averaged over an enormous number of finely defined subgroups. It yields a principled way to estimate the uncertainty of predictions on many different subgroups-and to diagnose potential sources of unfairness in the predictive power of features across subgroups. As an application, we show that our moment estimates can be used to derive marginal prediction intervals that are simultaneously valid as averaged over all of the (sufficiently large) subgroups for which moment multicalibration has been obtained.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Fair Prediction with Endogenous Behavior

There is increasing regulatory interest in whether machine learning algorithms deployed in consequential domains (e.g. in criminal justice) treat different demographic groups "fairly." However, there are several proposed notions of fairness, typically mutually incompatible. Using criminal justice as an example, we study a model in which society chooses an incarceration rule. Agents of different demographic groups differ in their outside options (e.g. opportunity for legal employment) and decide whether to commit crimes. We show that equalizing type I and type II errors across groups is consistent with the goal of minimizing the overall crime rate; other popular notions of fairness are not.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Strategic Formation and Reliability of Supply Chain Networks

Supply chains are the backbone of the global economy. Disruptions to them can be costly. Centrally managed supply chains invest in ensuring their resilience. Decentralized supply chains, however, must rely upon the self-interest of their individual components to maintain the resilience of the entire chain. We examine the incentives that independent self-interested agents have in forming a resilient supply chain network in the face of production disruptions and competition. In our model, competing suppliers are subject to yield uncertainty (they deliver less than ordered) and congestion (lead time uncertainty or, "soft" supply caps). Competing retailers must decide which suppliers to link to based on both price and reliability. In the presence of yield uncertainty only, the resulting supply chain networks are sparse. Retailers concentrate their links on a single supplier, counter to the idea that they should mitigate yield uncertainty by diversifying their supply base. This happens because retailers benefit from supply variance. It suggests that competition will amplify output uncertainty. When congestion is included as well, the resulting networks are denser and resemble the bipartite expander graphs that have been proposed in the supply chain literature, thereby, providing the first example of endogenous formation of resilient supply chain networks, without resilience being explicitly encoded in payoffs. Finally, we show that a supplier's investments in improved yield can make it worse off. This happens because high production output saturates the market, which, in turn lowers prices and profits for participants.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2019

Yield Uncertainty and Strategic Formation of Supply Chain Networks

How does supply uncertainty affect the structure of supply chain networks? To answer this question we consider a setting where retailers and suppliers must establish a costly relationship with each other prior to engaging in trade. Suppliers, with uncertain yield, announce wholesale prices, while retailers must decide which suppliers to link to based on their wholesale prices. Subsequently, retailers compete with each other in Cournot fashion to sell the acquired supply to consumers. We find that in equilibrium retailers concentrate their links among too few suppliers, i.e., there is insufficient diversification of the supply base. We find that either reduction of supply variance or increase of mean supply, increases a supplier's profit. However, these two ways of improving service have qualitatively different effects on welfare: improvement of the expected supply by a supplier makes everyone better off, whereas improvement of supply variance lowers consumer surplus.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Fairness Incentives for Myopic Agents

We consider settings in which we wish to incentivize myopic agents (such as Airbnb landlords, who may emphasize short-term profits and property safety) to treat arriving clients fairly, in order to prevent overall discrimination against individuals or groups. We model such settings in both classical and contextual bandit models in which the myopic agents maximize rewards according to current empirical averages, but are also amenable to exogenous payments that may cause them to alter their choices. Our notion of fairness asks that more qualified individuals are never (probabilistically) preferred over less qualified ones [Joseph et al]. We investigate whether it is possible to design inexpensive {subsidy} or payment schemes for a principal to motivate myopic agents to play fairly in all or almost all rounds. When the principal has full information about the state of the myopic agents, we show it is possible to induce fair play on every round with a subsidy scheme of total cost $o(T)$ (for the classic setting with $k$ arms, $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{k^3T})$, and for the $d$-dimensional linear contextual setting $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{k^3 T})$). If the principal has much more limited information (as might often be the case for an external regulator or watchdog), and only observes the number of rounds in which members from each of the $k$ groups were selected, but not the empirical estimates maintained by the myopic agent, the design of such a scheme becomes more complex. We show both positive and negative results in the classic and linear bandit settings by upper and lower bounding the cost of fair subsidy schemes.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

The Value of Sharing Intermittent Spectrum

Recent initiatives by regulatory agencies to increase spectrum resources available for broadband access include rules for sharing spectrum with high-priority incumbents. We study a model in which wireless Service Providers (SPs) charge for access to their own exclusive-use (licensed) band along with access to an additional shared band. The total, or delivered price in each band is the announced price plus a congestion cost, which depends on the load, or total users normalized by the bandwidth. The shared band is intermittently available with some probability, due to incumbent activity, and when unavailable, any traffic carried on that band must be shifted to licensed bands. The SPs then compete for quantity of users. We show that the value of the shared band depends on the relative sizes of the SPs: large SPs with more bandwidth are better able to absorb the variability caused by intermittency than smaller SPs. However, as the amount of shared spectrum increases, the large SPs may not make use of it. In that scenario shared spectrum creates more value than splitting it among the SPs for exclusive use. We also show that fixing the average amount of available shared bandwidth, increasing the reliability of the band is preferable to increasing the bandwidth.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Do Prices Coordinate Markets?

Walrasian equilibrium prices can be said to coordinate markets: They support a welfare optimal allocation in which each buyer is buying bundle of goods that is individually most preferred. However, this clean story has two caveats. First, the prices alone are not sufficient to coordinate the market, and buyers may need to select among their most preferred bundles in a coordinated way to find a feasible allocation. Second, we don't in practice expect to encounter exact equilibrium prices tailored to the market, but instead only approximate prices, somehow encoding "distributional" information about the market. How well do prices work to coordinate markets when tie-breaking is not coordinated, and they encode only distributional information? We answer this question. First, we provide a genericity condition such that for buyers with Matroid Based Valuations, overdemand with respect to equilibrium prices is at most 1, independent of the supply of goods, even when tie-breaking is done in an uncoordinated fashion. Second, we provide learning-theoretic results that show that such prices are robust to changing the buyers in the market, so long as all buyers are sampled from the same (unknown) distribution.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

Fast Convergence in the Double Oral Auction

A classical trading experiment consists of a set of unit demand buyers and unit supply sellers with identical items. Each agent's value or opportunity cost for the item is their private information and preferences are quasi-linear. Trade between agents employs a double oral auction (DOA) in which both buyers and sellers call out bids or offers which an auctioneer recognizes. Transactions resulting from accepted bids and offers are recorded. This continues until there are no more acceptable bids or offers. Remarkably, the experiment consistently terminates in a Walrasian price. The main result of this paper is a mechanism in the spirit of the DOA that converges to a Walrasian equilibrium in a polynomial number of steps, thus providing a theoretical basis for the above-described empirical phenomenon. It is well-known that computation of a Walrasian equilibrium for this market corresponds to solving a maximum weight bipartite matching problem. The uncoordinated but rational responses of agents thus solve in a distributed fashion a maximum weight bipartite matching problem that is encoded by their private valuations. We show, furthermore, that every Walrasian equilibrium is reachable by some sequence of responses. This is in contrast to the well known auction algorithms for this problem which only allow one side to make offers and thus essentially choose an equilibrium that maximizes the surplus for the side making offers. Our results extend to the setting where not every agent pair is allowed to trade with each other.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

The Cost of Free Spectrum

There has been growing interest in increasing the amount of radio spectrum available for unlicensed broad-band wireless access. That includes "prime" spectrum at lower frequencies, which is also suitable for wide area coverage by licensed cellular providers. While additional unlicensed spectrum would allow for market expansion, it could influence competition among providers and increase congestion (interference) among consumers of wireless services. We study the value (social welfare and consumer surplus) obtained by adding unlicensed spectrum to an existing allocation of licensed spectrum among incumbent service providers. We assume a population of customers who choose a provider based on the minimum delivered price, given by the weighted sum of the price of the service and a congestion cost, which depends on the number of subscribers in a band. We consider models in which this weighting is uniform across the customer population and where the weighting is either high or low, reflecting different sensitivities to latency. For the models considered, we find that the social welfare depends on the amount of additional unlicensed spectrum, and can actually decrease over a significant range of unlicensed bandwidths. Furthermore, with nonuniform weighting, introducing unlicensed spectrum can also reduce consumer welfare.

cs.GT↗