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Rama Cont

Publications and source records attributed to Rama Cont.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Deterministic Causal Quantization with Bounded Error: Adaptive Reconstruction and Entropy bounds

We study compression of real-valued stationary sources under a deterministic error bound: every sample must be reconstructed within a prescribed tolerance $\varepsilon$ on every input sequence. Reconstructions are causal, depending only on present and past inputs. Rates are measured by the entropy of the quantizer output, which block entropy coding can approach, and compared with the minimum rate of unrestricted block quantization under the same error constraint. A uniform scalar quantizer with cells of width $2\varepsilon$ is within one bit per sample of this minimum whenever finite-entropy scalar quantization is possible, without density, independence, or mixing assumptions. Under entropy and Sobolev regularity conditions, the gap is at most $2\mathcal{J}\varepsilon^2/(π^2\ln 2)$, where $\mathcal{J}$ is the asymptotic Fisher information per sample. Thus the cost of causal reconstruction vanishes at a quadratic rate as the tolerance decreases. A uniform grid, however, cannot adapt to the source. We construct an adaptive quantizer whose encoder and decoder maintain a common finite set of reconstruction values, updated from the transmitted symbols alone; suitable initialization reproduces any uniform grid. When its initial values are at least $\varepsilon$ apart, its rate is within two bits per sample of the minimum for every such source. For sources uniform within separated intervals of width $2\varepsilon$, storing the interval centers attains the minimum and its Shannon lower bound. Such configurations can outperform every uniform grid of the same cell width: over sources with well-separated intervals, the best uniform grid's worst-case excess rate is $1/(2\ln 2)\approx 0.72$ bit per sample.

cs.IT↗

Measuring the roughness of a signal

We study the non-parametric estimation of the roughness of a path from discretely sampled observations. Our approach is based on the concept of normalized power variation of a path. The estimator identifies a variation index by comparing coarse increments with local sums of fine increments. We prove pathwise consistency under Hölder regularity, nondegenerate coarse critical power sums, uniform local bounds on fine critical power sums, and separation of the two sampling scales and obtain a convergence rate for the estimator. Neither convergence of critical variation nor monotonicity of the finite-sample statistic is required. The result applies to fractional Brownian motion under dyadic sampling and to Schauder series with bounded coefficients bounded away from zero. For signed Takagi--Landsberg functions we obtain a uniform asymptotic formula and a quantitative bound for every root of the estimating equation in a fixed parameter interval. For fractional Brownian motion, we obtain asymptotic uniqueness of the estimating root and a polynomial almost-sure error bound. We illustrate the results with numerical experiments for Takagi-Landsberg functions, fractional Brownian motion and the stochastic heat equation.

math.ST↗

Functional calculus and martingale representation formula for integer-valued random measures

We develop a non-anticipative calculus for functionals of a continuous martingale and an integer-valued random measure. We first construct a non-anticipative functional derivative, which is shown to be the inverse of the stochastic integration for a dense functional class of integrands. We then show that this operator has a unique closure which is an isometry and defines a stochastic derivative acting on stochastic integrals. This stochastic derivative yields a constructive martingale representation formula and an orthogonal decomposition. The construction allows for random compensators, singular continuous time dependence and degenerate continuous covariation. On Wiener-Poisson space, the stochastic derivative is shown to be the predictable projection of the Malliavin derivative; we also obtain a factorization based on local mark gradients. We exhibit several applications of this framework to integer-valued random measures: sensitivity formulas and a convergent expansion for expectations under bounded predictable perturbations of the compensator, a change-of-measure formula for the derivative, a decomposition of the relative entropy in terms of the stochastic derivative, and a pathwise refinement of the Mecke formula.

math.PR↗

$p$-roughness of paths and invariance of $p$-th variation

We introduce an intrinsic notion of p-roughness for continuous paths,for p>1, defined by the uniform convergence of discrete p-energies over all shifted sufficiently fine uniform grids. We prove that this self-averaging property is equivalent to mesoscopic cancellation of the coarse-graining error for discrete p-energy, yielding a characterization that can be verified on a single uniform multiresolution. $p$-roughness refines the finite p-th variation property and implies the invariance of p-th variation across a class of partition sequences. We prove that Brownian motion is almost surely 2-rough and that fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H$ is almost surely $1/H$-rough. We also derive criteria for p-roughness based on Faber-Schauder coefficients. These results yield partition-robust formulations of higher-order pathwise calculus and energy occupation measures. Finally, we interpret coarse-graining as a renormalization flow for the p-energy and show that the p-roughness class is stable under critical time-amplitude scaling, with linear p-energy profiles as fixed points.

math.PR↗

Higher-order variation and pathwise Ito calculus on manifolds

We develop an intrinsic calculus for smooth functions of paths of arbitrarily low regularity on smooth manifolds. The regularity of paths is defined in terms of a $p$-th variation tensor along a sequence of partitions, for an arbitrary integer $p$; this tensor is constructed as a local symmetric tensor measure along the path. We define pathwise integrals of closed one-forms along paths with finite $p$-th variation and derive a change of variable formula for smooth functions of such paths. For $p=2$, our results give a manifold version of H. Föllmer's pathwise Itô calculus. Our construction only requires an affine connection on the manifold and may be viewed as a higher-order analogue of L. Schwartz's second-order differential geometry. The connection provides a splitting of higher-order tangent vectors into symmetric tensor components and leads to a geometric transfer principle: the change-of-variable formula defines an intrinsic, connection-independent functional of the reduced $p$-jet of the test function, whose canonical highest-order component is determined by the $p$-th variation tensor. Although our results are purely geometric, they apply to manifold-valued stochastic processes with highly irregular paths and yield a higher-order Itô-type calculus for such processes. We illustrate this calculus for exponential lifts of fractional Brownian motions to Riemannian manifolds and Lie groups.

math.PR↗

Functional representation and functional calculus for controlled paths

We study the relation between non-anticipative functional calculus and compatible families of controlled paths. For a non-anticipative functional satisfying horizontal Lipschitz regularity, we show that the iterated vertical derivatives generate compatible higher-order controlled Taylor expansions along Hölder controls, with level-dependent remainder exponents. We derive a rough-integration criterion from these estimates and show that, for $γ-$Hölder controls with $\tfrac{1}{2}\geq γ>\sqrt{2}-1$, the first-order remainder estimate is recovered. Our main result is a converse representation theorem. We consider non-anticipative functionals $G_0,\ldots,G_p$ which satisfy compatible higher-order controlled Taylor estimates along $γ$-Hölder paths. Under natural continuity and compatibility assumptions, we prove that they can be represented as the iterated vertical derivatives of the base functional: $ G_j=\nabla_ω^jG_0,\qquad j=1,\ldots,p.$ Thus the Gubinelli coefficients of a compatible controlled family are symmetric and uniquely determined by its base functional; in particular, the Gubinelli derivative is identified with the vertical derivative introduced in functional Itô calculus, giving the coefficient hierarchy an intrinsic path-space differential structure. We show that this class of compatible coefficient families is stable under admissible non-anticipative functional composition and derive the corresponding functional chain rule. As an application, we obtain well-posedness for a class of path-dependent rough differential equations with Volterra memory, and identify the Gubinelli derivative of the resulting path-dependent rough coefficient.

math.FA↗

Homogenization and Mean-Field Approximation for Multi-Player Games

We investigate how the framework of mean-field games may be used to study strategic interactions in large heterogeneous populations. Starting from a partition of the player population into groups, we introduce an intermediate finite-player game of mean-field type and derive explicit non-asymptotic bounds for the average exploitability of strategy profiles obtained by lifting strategies from the associated multi-population mean-field game. The approximation error decomposes into two components: a finite-population mean-field error, controlled by empirical-measure approximation within each group, and a heterogeneity error measuring deviations of the original players' rewards and transition dynamics from their group-level approximations. Our results apply to compact state and action spaces and allow heterogeneous deterministic initial states within each population. We further study the resulting trade-off between group size and intra-group heterogeneity. In a parametrized heterogeneous setting, the choice of partition minimizing the resulting certified upper bound can be formulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone program. In the large-population regime, this problem is shown to be related to $K$-means clustering.

math.OC↗

A pathwise Ito formula for weakly differentiable functions

We prove a version of Föllmer's pathwise Itô formula for weakly differentiable functions of continuous paths with finite quadratic variation along a sequence of partitions. For each such path $ω$, we introduce a path-dependent Sobolev space $W_{ω,π}^{2}$ defined through smooth approximation of the weak Hessian in a seminorm generated by discrete weighted occupation measures of the path $ω$. For $F\in W_{ω,π}^{2}$, we construct the pathwise integral $\int \nabla F(ω)\,d^πω$ and the covariation $[\nabla F(ω),ω]_π$, and prove the change-of-variable formula $$ F(ω(t))-F(ω(0)) = \int_{0}^{t}\nabla F(ω(s))\,d^πω(s) + \frac12[\nabla F(ω),ω]_π(t). $$ Our result does not require any assumption on the existence of local time for the path; the Ito term appears as a quadratic covariation. For Brownian motion, we show that functions in $W^{2+,p}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\cap W^{2,1}(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ belong almost surely to the corresponding path-dependent space, outside a polar exceptional set of starting points. If, in addition, $F\in W_{\mathrm{loc}}^{1,2}(\mathbb{R}^{d})$, the pathwise integral agrees with the stochastic Itô integral, yielding a pathwise version of the multidimensional Föllmer--Protter formula.

math.PR↗

Optimal rounding under integer constraints

Given $N$ real numbers whose sum is an integer, we study the problem of finding $N$ integers that preserve the sum while minimizing the rounding error. We first show that every optimal solution necessarily rounds each coordinate either to its floor or its ceiling, reducing the problem to the selection of the coordinates to be rounded upward. This characterization extends to a class of separable convex integer optimization problems with a single sum constraint. For the resulting optimization problem we characterize the complete set of optimal solutions and show that rounding upward the largest fractional parts simultaneously minimizes the $L^q$ rounding error for every $q\geq 1$. More generally, the resulting error vector is minimal in the weak-majorization order and therefore minimizes every symmetric convex coordinatewise nondecreasing loss of the rounding error. When the $L^q$-optimal solution is not unique, we provide an explicit tie-breaking rule that minimizes the relative rounding error among all optimal solutions. These results lead to a deterministic algorithm with linear $O(N)$ worst-case complexity. Unlike independent randomized rounding, which preserves the target coordinates and the sum constraint only in expectation, the proposed method computes an exactly feasible, provably optimal integer rounding with deterministic optimality guarantee. Besides solving the constrained rounding problem, the algorithm applies as the rounding step in relaxed integer optimization problems with a single conservation constraint.

cs.DS↗

Mimicking diffusion processes with differential equations

The probability-flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) associated with a diffusion process is widely used in score-based generative modeling as a deterministic sampler that reproduces the marginal distributions of the diffusion. The validity of this marginal-matching property depends on the well-posedness of an ordinary differential equation whose velocity field is constructed from the score function of the diffusion. We examine the precise mathematical relation between a diffusion process, the Fokker-Planck equation and the associated PF-ODE under weak regularity assumptions on the drift and score. We establish existence and uniqueness of the marginal density flow as a solution of the Fokker--Planck equation under minimal regularity assumptions. We then study the corresponding Lagrangian problem using the DiPerna-Lions-Ambrosio theory of regular Lagrangian flows. We prove existence, uniqueness and stability of the flow, and show that it transports the initial distribution onto the diffusion marginals, under Sobolev or bounded-variation regularity of the score together with one-sided bounds on the divergence of the probability-flow velocity. We identify sufficient conditions for the required regularity in diffusion models relevant for applications. Our analysis underlines a fundamental distinction between Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions. We construct a counterexample in which the Fokker--Planck equation has a unique density flow while the associated PF-ODE fails to admit a regular Lagrangian flow from the initial time, demonstrating that uniqueness of the density evolution does not in general imply the existence of a deterministic probability-flow representation. Finally, we derive stability estimates for probability-flow trajectories under learned score approximations. Our findings have implications for the training and deployment of score-based diffusion models.

math.PR↗

Reflected diffusion, no-flux continuity equations and confined Lagrangian flows in bounded domains

Motivated by marginal distribution flows of reflected diffusions in bounded domains, we investigate when a density/flux pair solving a no-flux continuity equation admits a regular Lagrangian flow that remains in the closed domain and generates the prescribed density flow. We give sufficient conditions in terms of interior bounded-variation regularity, bounded-variation control on a boundary collar, a one-sided bound on an absolutely continuous divergence, and vanishing normal trace of the velocity. The proof uses the fact that tangency removes the singular boundary contribution to the divergence of the zero extension, thereby making the extended velocity admissible for the Ambrosio-DiPerna-Lions theory. We show that these boundary assumptions cannot be jointly relaxed so as to admit a boundary current mechanism. We construct an explicit smooth density/flux pair carrying a boundary current. Its density evolution is unique in a weighted class and its characteristics are unique, confined and transport the marginals, yet it admits no regular Lagrangian flow because the compressibility bound fails arbitrarily close to the initial time. We also establish two uniqueness results for no-flux Fokker-Planck equations: a duality result for bounded measurable drifts and a weighted energy result for entrance-type drifts singular at the boundary. Our results provide a rigorous mathematical justification for using the ODE-based sampling of reflected diffusion models under minimal regularity assumptions on the coefficients, and also indicate when such ODE-based samplers may fail.

math.CA↗

Tail-GAN: Learning to Simulate Tail Risk Scenarios

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, focusing on accurately representing tail risk for a class of static and dynamic trading strategies. We exploit the joint elicitability property of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to design a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) that learns to simulate price scenarios preserving these tail risk features. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on synthetic and market data sets through detailed numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed data-driven scenario generators, our proposed method correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization capabilities. In addition, combining our method with principal component analysis of the input data enhances its scalability to large-dimensional multi-asset time series, setting our framework apart from the univariate settings commonly considered in the literature.

q-fin.RM↗

Model-free Analysis of Dynamic Trading Strategies

We introduce a model-free approach for analyzing the risk and return for a broad class of dynamic trading strategies, including pairs trading, mean-reversion trading and other statistical arbitrage strategies, in terms of excursions of a trading signal away from a reference level. Our results are derived in a pathwise setting, without any probabilistic assumptions. We introduce the notion of δ-excursion, defined as a path which deviates by δ from a reference level before returning to this level. We show that every continuous path has a unique decomposition into δ-excursions. This decomposition is useful for the scenario analysis of dynamic trading strategies, leading to simple expressions for the number of trades, realized profit, maximum loss, and drawdown. We show that the high-frequency limit of mean-reversion strategies may be described in terms of the (p-th order) local time of the signal. In particular, our results yield a financial interpretation of the local time of an irregular path. Finally, we describe a non-parametric scenario simulation method for generating paths whose excursion properties match those observed in empirical data.

q-fin.MF↗

Causal transport on path space

We study properties of causal couplings for probability measures on the space of continuous functions. We first provide a characterization of bicausal couplings between weak solutions of stochastic differential equations. We then provide a complete description of all such bicausal Monge couplings. In particular, we show that bicausal Monge couplings of $d$-dimensional Wiener measures are induced by stochastic integrals of rotation-valued integrands. As an application, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for bicausal couplings to be induced by Monge maps and show that such bicausal Monge transports are dense in the set of bicausal couplings between laws of SDEs with regular coefficients.

math.PR↗

Rough volatility: fact or artefact?

We investigate the statistical evidence for the use of `rough' fractional processes with Hurst exponent $H< 0.5$ for the modeling of volatility of financial assets, using a model-free approach. We introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the roughness of a function based on discrete sample, using the concept of normalized $p$-th variation along a sequence of partitions. We investigate the finite sample performance of our estimator for measuring the roughness of sample paths of stochastic processes using detailed numerical experiments based on sample paths of fractional Brownian motion and other fractional processes. We then apply this method to estimate the roughness of realized volatility signals based on high-frequency observations. Detailed numerical experiments based on stochastic volatility models show that, even when the instantaneous volatility has diffusive dynamics with the same roughness as Brownian motion, the realized volatility exhibits rough behaviour corresponding to a Hurst exponent significantly smaller than $0.5$. Comparison of roughness estimates for realized and instantaneous volatility in fractional volatility models with different values of Hurst exponent shows that, irrespective of the roughness of the spot volatility process, realized volatility always exhibits `rough' behaviour with an apparent Hurst index $\hat{H}<0.5$. These results suggest that the origin of the roughness observed in realized volatility time-series lies in the microstructure noise rather than the volatility process itself.

q-fin.ST↗

Fast and Slow Optimal Trading with Exogenous Information

We consider a stochastic game between a slow institutional investor and a high-frequency trader who are trading a risky asset and their aggregated order-flow impacts the asset price. We model this system by means of two coupled stochastic control problems, in which the high-frequency trader exploits the available information on a price predicting signal more frequently, but is also subject to periodic "end of day" inventory constraints. We first derive the optimal strategy of the high-frequency trader given any admissible strategy of the institutional investor. Then, we solve the problem of the institutional investor given the optimal signal-adaptive strategy of the high-frequency trader, in terms of the resolvent of a Fredholm integral equation, thus establishing the unique multi-period Stackelberg equilibrium of the game. Our results provide an explicit solution to the game, which shows that the high-frequency trader can adopt either predatory or cooperative strategies in each period, depending on the tradeoff between the order-flow and the trading signal. We also show that the institutional investor's strategy is considerably more profitable when the order-flow of the high-frequency trader is taken into account in her trading strategy.

q-fin.TR↗

Cross-Impact of Order Flow Imbalance in Equity Markets

We investigate the impact of order flow imbalance (OFI) on price movements in equity markets in a multi-asset setting. First, we propose a systematic approach for combining OFIs at the top levels of the limit order book into an integrated OFI variable which better explains price impact, compared to the best-level OFI. We show that once the information from multiple levels is integrated into OFI, multi-asset models with cross-impact do not provide additional explanatory power for contemporaneous impact compared to a sparse model without cross-impact terms. On the other hand, we show that lagged cross-asset OFIs do improve the forecasting of future returns. We also establish that this lagged cross-impact mainly manifests at short-term horizons and decays rapidly in time.

q-fin.TR↗

A mathematical framework for modelling order book dynamics

We present a general framework for modelling the dynamics of limit order books, built on the combination of two modelling ingredients: the order flow, modelled as a general spatial point process, and market clearing, modelled via a deterministic mass transport operator acting on distributions of buy and sell orders. At the mathematical level, this corresponds to a natural decomposition of the infinitesimal generator describing the evolution of the limit order book into two operators: the generator of the order flow and the clearing operator. Our model provides a flexible framework for modelling and simulating order book dynamics and studying various scaling limits of discrete order book models. We show that our framework includes previous models as special cases and yields insights into the interplay between order flow and price dynamics.

q-fin.MF↗