arXiv subjects

Ramit Debnath

Publications and source records attributed to Ramit Debnath.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hyperlocal monitoring of urban activity reveals responses to heat exposure

Rising temperatures create new challenges for local heat adaptation. Yet, it remains unclear how urban activity changes during hot periods and which urban environments people concentrate in as temperatures rise. Here, we perform a hyperlocal spatiotemporal analysis of urban activity across 10 German cities over a two-month period in 2024 with different levels of heat exposure. To monitor urban activity, we use fine-grained telecommunication data to map locations of people with high spatio-temporal resolution (i.e., hourly at 100m x 155m grid cells), yielding more than 100 million data points. We then link activity counts with hourly weather records and point-of-interest data. We find that sustained periods of hot weather, defined as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures $\geq 25${\deg}C, are characterized by below-expected city-wide presence, with activity counts that are 1.5 percentage points below regular urban activity. During hot periods, urban activity concentrates more strongly around leisure- and culture-oriented amenities (e.g., caf\'es or swimming pools), with an increase of up to around 10 percentage points relative to cooler days, while public-service environments (e.g., educational and health facilities) show weaker or negative shifts. Our study provides policy-makers with fine-grained monitoring of which urban areas attract citizens during heat exposure, which can enable evidence-based, spatially-targeted urban heat adaptation plans.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior

Anticipating LLM behavioral tendencies from low-cost psychometric probes is critical for safe deployment, but only if self-reports (SR) reliably predict behavior. Recent work documented substantial SR-behavior dissociation in LLMs, but relied on broad personality traits (Big 5) that predict specific behaviors weakly, even in humans. Furthermore, the isolation of conversational sessions combined with weak context matching left open whether LLMs truly lack coherence or whether the conditions needed to detect such coherence were not met. We contrast Big 5 with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which measures intention targeted to a specific behavior and predicts human behavior substantially better than broad traits. We run experiments across four behavioral tasks and 11 frontier LLMs, while also varying session context and identity induction. We find that SR-behavior coherence exists but is selective. 1) Within a shared conversation, the Theory of Planned Behavior reaches human-level coherence; Big 5 does not. 2) Across separate conversations, coherence survives only for behaviors anchored outside the immediate prompt, such as implicit bias shaped by training, and collapses when behavior is strongly primed by context, as with sycophancy. 3) Persona prompting makes self-reports more consistent across conversations, but does not bring behavior into alignment. These findings suggest that coarse personality frameworks, such as Big 5 may not be the best tools for testing deployment behavior. More task- and behavior-specific instruments are needed, and even these must be evaluated across tasks and contexts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Data-driven Bi-level Optimization of Thermal Power Systems with embedded Artificial Neural Networks

Industrial thermal power systems have coupled performance variables with hierarchical order of importance, making their simultaneous optimization computationally challenging or infeasible. This barrier limits the integrated and computationally scaleable operation optimization of industrial thermal power systems. To address this issue for large-scale engineering systems, we present a fully machine learning-powered bi-level optimization framework for data-driven optimization of industrial thermal power systems. The objective functions of upper and lower levels are approximated by artificial neural network (ANN) models and the lower-level problem is analytically embedded through Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions. The reformulated single level optimization framework integrating ANN models and KKT constraints (ANN-KKT) is validated on benchmark problems and on real-world power generation operation of 660 MW coal power plant and 395 MW gas turbine system. The results reveal a comparable solutions obtained from the proposed ANN-KKT framework to the bi-level solutions of the benchmark problems. Marginal computational time requirement (0.22 to 0.88 s) to compute optimal solutions yields 583 MW (coal) and 402 MW (gas turbine) of power output at optimal turbine heat rate of 7337 kJ/kWh and 7542 kJ/kWh, respectively. In addition, the method expands to delineate a feasible and robust operating envelope that accounts for uncertainty in operating variables while maximizing thermal efficiency in various scenarios. These results demonstrate that ANN-KKT offers a scalable and computationally efficient route for hierarchical, data-driven optimization of industrial thermal power systems, achieving energy-efficient operations of large-scale engineering systems and contributing to industry 5.0.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Artificial intelligence is creating a new global linguistic hierarchy

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform healthcare, education, governance and socioeconomic equity, but its benefits remain concentrated in a small number of languages (Bender, 2019; Blasi et al., 2022; Joshi et al., 2020; Ranathunga and de Silva, 2022; Young, 2015). Language AI - the technologies that underpin widely-used conversational systems such as ChatGPT - could provide major benefits if available in people's native languages, yet most of the world's 7,000+ linguistic communities currently lack access and face persistent digital marginalization. Here we present a global longitudinal analysis of social, economic and infrastructural conditions across languages to assess systemic inequalities in language AI. We first analyze the existence of AI resources for 6003 languages. We find that despite efforts of the community to broaden the reach of language technologies (Bapna et al., 2022; Costa-Juss\`a et al., 2022), the dominance of a handful of languages is exacerbating disparities on an unprecedented scale, with divides widening exponentially rather than narrowing. Further, we contrast the longitudinal diffusion of AI with that of earlier IT technologies, revealing a distinctive hype-driven pattern of spread. To translate our findings into practical insights and guide prioritization efforts, we introduce the Language AI Readiness Index (EQUATE), which maps the state of technological, socio-economic, and infrastructural prerequisites for AI deployment across languages. The index highlights communities where capacity exists but remains underutilized, and provides a framework for accelerating more equitable diffusion of language AI. Our work contributes to setting the baseline for a transition towards more sustainable and equitable language technologies.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Code, Capital, and Clusters: Understanding Firm Performance in the UK AI Economy

The UK has established a distinctive position in the global AI landscape, driven by rapid firm formation and strategic investment. However, the interplay between AI specialisation, local socioeconomic conditions, and firm performance remains underexplored. This study analyses a comprehensive dataset of UK AI entities (2000 - 2024) from Companies House, ONS, and glass.ai. We find a strong geographical concentration in London (41.3 percent of entities) and technology-centric sectors, with general financial services reporting the highest mean operating revenue (33.9 million GBP, n=33). Firm size and AI specialisation intensity are primary revenue drivers, while local factors, Level 3 qualification rates, population density, and employment levels, provide significant marginal contributions, highlighting the dependence of AI growth on regional socioeconomic ecosystems. The forecasting models project sectoral expansion to 2030, estimating 4,651 [4,323 - 4,979, 95 percent CI] total entities and a rising dissolution ratio (2.21 percent [-0.17 - 4.60]), indicating a transition toward slower sector expansion and consolidation. These results provide robust evidence for place-sensitive policy interventions: cultivating regional AI capabilities beyond London to mitigate systemic risks; distinguishing between support for scaling (addressing capital gaps) and deepening technical specialisation; and strategically shaping ecosystem consolidation. Targeted actions are essential to foster both aggregate AI growth and balanced regional development, transforming consolidation into sustained competitive advantage.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Neural Network-enabled Domain-consistent Robust Optimisation for Global CO$_2$ Reduction Potential of Gas Power Plants

We introduce a neural network-driven robust optimisation framework that integrates data-driven domain as a constraint into the nonlinear programming technique, addressing the overlooked issue of domain-inconsistent solutions arising from the interaction of parametrised neural network models with optimisation solvers. Applied to a 1180 MW capacity combined cycle gas power plant, our framework delivers domain-consistent robust optimal solutions that achieve a verified 0.76 percentage point mean improvement in energy efficiency. For the first time, scaling this efficiency gain to the global fleet of gas power plants, we estimate an annual 26 Mt reduction potential in CO$_2$ (with 10.6 Mt in Asia, 9.0 Mt in the Americas, and 4.5 Mt in Europe). These results underscore the synergetic role of machine learning in delivering near-term, scalable decarbonisation pathways for global climate action.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

The Personality Illusion: Revealing Dissociation Between Self-Reports & Behavior in LLMs

Personality traits have long been studied as predictors of human behavior. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) suggest similar patterns may emerge in artificial systems, with advanced LLMs displaying consistent behavioral tendencies resembling human traits like agreeableness and self-regulation. Understanding these patterns is crucial, yet prior work primarily relied on simplified self-reports and heuristic prompting, with little behavioral validation. In this study, we systematically characterize LLM personality across three dimensions: (1) the dynamic emergence and evolution of trait profiles throughout training stages; (2) the predictive validity of self-reported traits in behavioral tasks; and (3) the impact of targeted interventions, such as persona injection, on both self-reports and behavior. Our findings reveal that instructional alignment (e.g., RLHF, instruction tuning) significantly stabilizes trait expression and strengthens trait correlations in ways that mirror human data. However, these self-reported traits do not reliably predict behavior, and observed associations often diverge from human patterns. While persona injection successfully steers self-reports in the intended direction, it exerts little or inconsistent effect on actual behavior. By distinguishing surface-level trait expression from behavioral consistency, our findings challenge assumptions about LLM personality and underscore the need for deeper evaluation in alignment and interpretability.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Domain-Informed Operation Excellence of Gas Turbine System with Machine Learning

The domain-consistent adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) remains low in thermal power plants due to the black-box nature of AI algorithms and low representation of domain knowledge in conventional data-centric analytics. In this paper, we develop a MAhalanobis Distance-based OPTimization (MAD-OPT) framework that incorporates the Mahalanobis distance-based constraint to introduce domain knowledge into data-centric analytics. The developed MAD-OPT framework is applied to maximize thermal efficiency and minimize turbine heat rate for a 395 MW capacity gas turbine system. We demonstrate that the MAD-OPT framework can estimate domain-informed optimal process conditions under different ambient conditions, and the optimal solutions are found to be robust as evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. We also apply the MAD-OPT framework to estimate optimal process conditions beyond the design power generation limit of the gas turbine system, and have found comparable results with the actual data of the power plant. We demonstrate that implementing data-centric optimization analytics without incorporating domain-informed constraints may provide ineffective solutions that may not be implementable in the real operation of the gas turbine system. This research advances the integration of the data-driven domain knowledge into machine learning-powered analytics that enhances the domain-informed operation excellence and paves the way for safe AI adoption in thermal power systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

When Large Language Models are More PersuasiveThan Incentivized Humans, and Why

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to be highly persuasive, but when and why they outperform humans is still an open question. We compare the persuasiveness of two LLMs (Claude 3.5 Sonnet and DeepSeek v3) against humans who had incentives to persuade, using an interactive, real-time conversational setting. We demonstrate that LLMs persuasive superiority is context-dependent: it depends on whether the persuasion attempt is truthful (towards the right answer) or deceptive (towards the wrong answer) and on the LLM model, and wanes over repeated interactions (unlike human persuasiveness). In our first large-scale experiment, humans vs LLMs (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) interacted with other humans who were completing an online quiz for a reward, attempting to persuade them toward a given (either correct or incorrect) answer. Claude was more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders both in truthful and deceptive contexts and it significantly increased accuracy if persuasion was truthful, but decreased it if persuasion was deceptive. In a follow-up experiment with Deepseek v3, we replicated the findings about accuracy but found greater LLM persuasiveness only if the persuasion was deceptive. Linguistic analyses of the persuaders texts suggest that these effects may be due to LLMs expressing higher conviction than humans.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Improving Preference Extraction In LLMs By Identifying Latent Knowledge Through Classifying Probes

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often used as automated judges to evaluate text, but their effectiveness can be hindered by various unintentional biases. We propose using linear classifying probes, trained by leveraging differences between contrasting pairs of prompts, to directly access LLMs' latent knowledge and extract more accurate preferences. Through extensive experiments using models of varying size from four different families and six diverse datasets assessing text quality evaluation and common sense reasoning, we demonstrate that both supervised and unsupervised probing approaches consistently outperform traditional generation-based judgement while maintaining similar computational costs. These probes generalise under domain shifts and can even outperform finetuned evaluators with the same training data size. Our results suggest linear probing offers an accurate, robust and computationally efficient approach for LLM-as-judge tasks while providing interpretable insights into how models encode judgement-relevant knowledge. Our data and code will be openly released in the future.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Domain Consistent Industrial Decarbonisation of Global Coal Power Plants

Machine learning and optimisation techniques (MLOPT) hold significant potential to accelerate the decarbonisation of industrial systems by enabling data-driven operational improvements. However, the practical application of MLOPT in industrial settings is often hindered by a lack of domain compliance and system-specific consistency, resulting in suboptimal solutions with limited real-world applicability. To address this challenge, we propose a novel human-in-the-loop (HITL) constraint-based optimisation framework that integrates domain expertise with data-driven methods, ensuring solutions are both technically sound and operationally feasible. We demonstrate the efficacy of this framework through a case study focused on enhancing the thermal efficiency and reducing the turbine heat rate of a 660 MW supercritical coal-fired power plant. By embedding domain knowledge as constraints within the optimisation process, our approach yields solutions that align with the plant's operational patterns and are seamlessly integrated into its control systems. Empirical validation confirms a mean improvement in thermal efficiency of 0.64\% and a mean reduction in turbine heat rate of 93 kJ/kWh. Scaling our analysis to 59 global coal power plants with comparable capacity and fuel type, we estimate a cumulative lifetime reduction of 156.4 million tons of carbon emissions. These results underscore the transformative potential of our HITL-MLOPT framework in delivering domain-compliant, implementable solutions for industrial decarbonisation, offering a scalable pathway to mitigate the environmental impact of coal-based power generation worldwide.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Human Preferences for Constructive Interactions in Language Model Alignment

As large language models (LLMs) enter the mainstream, aligning them to foster constructive dialogue rather than exacerbate societal divisions is critical. Using an individualized and multicultural alignment dataset of over 7,500 conversations of individuals from 74 countries engaging with 21 LLMs, we examined how linguistic attributes linked to constructive interactions are reflected in human preference data used for training AI. We found that users consistently preferred well-reasoned and nuanced responses while rejecting those high in personal storytelling. However, users who believed that AI should reflect their values tended to place less preference on reasoning in LLM responses and more on curiosity. Encouragingly, we observed that users could set the tone for how constructive their conversation would be, as LLMs mirrored linguistic attributes, including toxicity, in user queries.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Heatwave increases nighttime light intensity in hyperdense cities of the Global South: A double machine learning study

Heatwaves, intensified by climate change and rapid urbanisation, pose significant threats to urban systems, particularly in the Global South, where adaptive capacity is constrained. This study investigates the relationship between heatwaves and nighttime light (NTL) radiance, a proxy of nighttime economic activity, in four hyperdense cities: Delhi, Guangzhou, Cairo, and Sao Paulo. We hypothesised that heatwaves increase nighttime activity. Using a double machine learning (DML) framework, we analysed data from 2013 to 2019 to quantify the impact of heatwaves on NTL while controlling for local climatic confounders. Results revealed a statistically significant increase in NTL intensity during heatwaves, with Cairo, Delhi, and Guangzhou showing elevated NTL on the third day, while S\~ao Paulo exhibits a delayed response on the fourth day. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings, indicating that prolonged heat stress prompts urban populations to shift activities to night. Heterogeneous responses across cities highlight the possible influence of urban morphology and adaptive capacity to heatwave impacts. Our findings provide a foundation for policymakers to develop data-driven heat adaptation strategies, ensuring that cities remain liveable and economically resilient in an increasingly warming world.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Energy Mapping of Existing Building Stock in Cambridge using Energy Performance Certificates and Thermal Infrared Imagery

Energy performance certificate (EPC) and thermal infrared (TIR) images both play a key role in the energy performance mapping of the urban building stock. In this paper, we developed parametric building archetypes using an EPC database and conducted temperature clustering on TIR images acquired through drones and satellite datasets. We evaluated 1725 EPCs of existing building stock in Cambridge, UK to generate energy consumption profiles. Drone-based TIR images of individual buildings in two Cambridge University colleges were processed using a machine learning pipeline for thermal anomaly detection and investigated the influence of two specific factors that affect the reliability of TIR for energy management applications: ground sample distance (GSD) and angle of view (AOV). The EPC-level results suggest that the construction year of the buildings influences their energy consumption. For example, modern buildings were over 30% more energy-efficient than older ones. Parallelly, older buildings were found to show almost double the energy savings potential through retrofitting than newly constructed buildings. TIR imaging results showed that thermal anomalies can only be properly identified in images with a GSD of 1m/pixel or less. A GSD of 1-6m/pixel can detect hot areas of building surfaces. We found that a GSD > 6m/pixel cannot characterise individual buildings but does help identify urban heat island effects. Additional sensitivity analysis showed that building thermal anomaly detection is more sensitive to AOV than to GSD. Our study informs newer approaches to building energy diagnostics using thermography and supports decision-making for retrofitting at a large scale.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Deciphering public attention to geoengineering and climate issues using machine learning and dynamic analysis

As the conversation around using geoengineering to combat climate change intensifies, it is imperative to engage the public and deeply understand their perspectives on geoengineering research, development, and potential deployment. Through a comprehensive data-driven investigation, this paper explores the types of news that captivate public interest in geoengineering. We delved into 30,773 English-language news articles from the BBC and the New York Times, combined with Google Trends data spanning 2018 to 2022, to explore how public interest in geoengineering fluctuates in response to news coverage of broader climate issues. Using BERT-based topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and time-series regression models, we found that positive sentiment in energy-related news serves as a good predictor of heightened public interest in geoengineering, a trend that persists over time. Our findings suggest that public engagement with geoengineering and climate action is not uniform, with some topics being more potent in shaping interest over time, such as climate news related to energy, disasters, and politics. Understanding these patterns is crucial for scientists, policymakers, and educators aiming to craft effective strategies for engaging with the public and fostering dialogue around emerging climate technologies.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Physics-based deep learning reveals rising heating demand heightens air pollution in Norwegian cities

Policymakers frequently analyze air quality and climate change in isolation, disregarding their interactions. This study explores the influence of specific climate factors on air quality by contrasting a regression model with K-Means Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering, and Random Forest techniques. We employ Physics-based Deep Learning (PBDL) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to examine the air pollution predictions. Our analysis utilizes ten years (2009-2018) of daily traffic, weather, and air pollution data from three major cities in Norway. Findings from feature selection reveal a correlation between rising heating degree days and heightened air pollution levels, suggesting increased heating activities in Norway are a contributing factor to worsening air quality. PBDL demonstrates superior accuracy in air pollution predictions compared to LSTM. This paper contributes to the growing literature on PBDL methods for more accurate air pollution predictions using environmental variables, aiding policymakers in formulating effective data-driven climate policies.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

India nudges to contain COVID-19 pandemic: a reactive public policy analysis using machine-learning based topic modelling

India locked down 1.3 billion people on March 25, 2020 in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. The economic cost of it was estimated at USD 98 billion, while the social costs are still unknown. This study investigated how government formed reactive policies to fight coronavirus across its policy sectors. Primary data was collected from the Press Information Bureau (PIB) in the form press releases of government plans, policies, programme initiatives and achievements. A text corpus of 260,852 words was created from 396 documents from the PIB. An unsupervised machine-based topic modelling using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm was performed on the text corpus. It was done to extract high probability topics in the policy sectors. The interpretation of the extracted topics was made through a nudge theoretic lens to derive the critical policy heuristics of the government. Results showed that most interventions were targeted to generate endogenous nudge by using external triggers. Notably, the nudges from the Prime Minister of India was critical in creating herd effect on lockdown and social distancing norms across the nation. A similar effect was also observed around the public health (e.g., masks in public spaces; Yoga and Ayurveda for immunity), transport (e.g., old trains converted to isolation wards), micro, small and medium enterprises (e.g., rapid production of PPE and masks), science and technology sector (e.g., diagnostic kits, robots and nano-technology), home affairs (e.g., surveillance and lockdown), urban (e.g. drones, GIS-tools) and education (e.g., online learning). A conclusion was drawn on leveraging these heuristics are crucial for lockdown easement planning.

cs.CY↗