arXiv subjects

Raphael C. Kim

Publications and source records attributed to Raphael C. Kim.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Data-Adaptive and Model-Robust Covariate Adjustment for Time-to-Event Outcomes in Stratified Randomized Trials

Time-to-event outcomes are commonly used as primary endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Despite this, relatively little work incorporates baseline covariate information while also accounting for stratified randomization, a common form of randomization. Moreover, leveraging efficiency gains using these approaches typically requires pre-specifying a subset of covariates that are most predictive of the outcome -- a challenging task in practice, as most trials collect dozens of potentially prognostic baseline variables. In this work, we build on existing literature to propose a data-adaptive and model-robust covariate adjustment method for time-to-event outcomes. Our approach, based on targeted minimum loss-based estimation, allows for data-adaptive covariate selection and model-robust efficient inference on functionals of the survival curve while accounting for stratification. Through extensive simulations and analysis, we showcase the simplicity and improved precision of our method when the covariate set is not known a priori.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Fair Policy Learning under Bipartite Network Interference: Learning Fair and Cost-Effective Environmental Policies

Numerous studies have shown the harmful effects of airborne pollutants on human health. Vulnerable groups and communities often bear a disproportionately larger health burden due to exposure to airborne pollutants. Thus, there is a need to design policies that effectively reduce the public health burdens while ensuring cost-effective policy interventions. Designing policies that optimally benefit the population while ensuring equity between groups under cost constraints is a challenging statistical and causal inference problem. In the context of environmental policy this is further complicated by the fact that interventions target emission sources but health impacts occur in potentially distant communities due to atmospheric pollutant transport -- a setting known as bipartite network interference (BNI). To address these issues, we propose a fair policy learning approach under BNI. Our approach allows to learn cost-effective policies under fairness constraints even accounting for complex BNI data structures. We derive asymptotic properties and demonstrate finite sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real-world dataset linking power plant scrubber installations to Medicare health records for more than 2 million individuals in the U.S. Our method determine fair scrubber allocations to reduce mortality under fairness and cost constraints.

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arXiv2024

Towards Optimal Environmental Policies: Policy Learning under Arbitrary Bipartite Network Interference

The substantial effect of air pollution on cardiovascular disease and mortality burdens is well-established. Emissions-reducing interventions on coal-fired power plants -- a major source of hazardous air pollution -- have proven to be an effective, but costly, strategy for reducing pollution-related health burdens. Targeting the power plants that achieve maximum health benefits while satisfying realistic cost constraints is challenging. The primary difficulty lies in quantifying the health benefits of intervening at particular plants. This is further complicated because interventions are applied on power plants, while health impacts occur in potentially distant communities, a setting known as bipartite network interference (BNI). In this paper, we introduce novel policy learning methods based on Q- and A-Learning to determine the optimal policy under arbitrary BNI. We derive asymptotic properties and demonstrate finite sample efficacy in simulations. We apply our novel methods to a comprehensive dataset of Medicare claims, power plant data, and pollution transport networks. Our goal is to determine the optimal strategy for installing power plant scrubbers to minimize ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations under various cost constraints. We find that annual IHD hospitalization rates could be reduced in a range from 23.37-55.30 per 10,000 person-years through optimal policies under different cost constraints.

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arXiv2024

Difference-in-Differences under Bipartite Network Interference: A Framework for Quasi-Experimental Assessment of the Effects of Environmental Policies on Health

Pollution from coal-fired power plants has been linked to substantial health and mortality burdens in the US. In recent decades, federal regulatory policies have spurred efforts to curb emissions through various actions, such as the installation of emissions control technologies on power plants. However, assessing the health impacts of these measures, particularly over longer periods of time, is complicated by several factors. First, the units that potentially receive the intervention (power plants) are disjoint from those on which outcomes are measured (communities), and second, pollution emitted from power plants disperses and affects geographically far-reaching areas. This creates a methodological challenge known as bipartite network interference (BNI). To our knowledge, no methods have been developed for conducting quasi-experimental studies with panel data in the BNI setting. In this study, motivated by the need for robust estimates of the total health impacts of power plant emissions control technologies in recent decades, we introduce a novel causal inference framework for difference-in-differences analysis under BNI with staggered treatment adoption. We explain the unique methodological challenges that arise in this setting and propose a solution via a data reconfiguration and mapping strategy. The proposed approach is advantageous because analysis is conducted at the intervention unit level, avoiding the need to arbitrarily define treatment status at the outcome unit level, but it permits interpretation of results at the more policy-relevant outcome unit level. Using this interference-aware approach, we investigate the impacts of installation of flue gas desulfurization scrubbers on coal-fired power plants on coronary heart disease hospitalizations among older Americans over the period 2003-2014, finding an overall beneficial effect in mitigating such disease outcomes.

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arXiv2024

Environmental Justice Implications of Power Plant Emissions Control Policies: Heterogeneous Causal Effect Estimation under Bipartite Network Interference

Emissions generators, such as coal-fired power plants, are key contributors to air pollution and thus environmental policies to reduce their emissions have been proposed. Furthermore, marginalized groups are exposed to disproportionately high levels of this pollution and have heightened susceptibility to its adverse health impacts. As a result, robust evaluations of the heterogeneous impacts of air pollution regulations are key to justifying and designing maximally protective interventions. However, such evaluations are complicated in that much of air pollution regulatory policy intervenes on large emissions generators while resulting impacts are measured in potentially distant populations. Such a scenario can be described as that of bipartite network interference (BNI). To our knowledge, no literature to date has considered estimation of heterogeneous causal effects with BNI. In this paper, we contribute to the literature in a three-fold manner. First, we propose BNI-specific estimators for subgroup-specific causal effects and design an empirical Monte Carlo simulation approach for BNI to evaluate their performance. Second, we demonstrate how these estimators can be combined with subgroup discovery approaches to identify subgroups benefiting most from air pollution policies without a priori specification. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to estimate the effects of coal-fired power plant emissions control interventions on ischemic heart disease (IHD) among 27,312,190 US Medicare beneficiaries. Though we find no statistically significant effect of the interventions in the full population, we do find significant IHD hospitalization decreases in communities with high poverty and smoking rates.

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