arXiv subjects

Raphael Morsomme

Publications and source records attributed to Raphael Morsomme.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Bayesian approach for fitting semi-Markov mixture models of cancer latency to individual-level data

Multi-state models of cancer natural history are widely used for designing and evaluating cancer early detection strategies. Calibrating such models against longitudinal data from screened cohorts is challenging, especially when fitting non-Markovian mixture models against individual-level data. Here, we consider a family of semi-Markov mixture models of cancer natural history and introduce an efficient data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for fitting these models to individual-level screening and cancer diagnosis histories. Our fully Bayesian approach supports rigorous uncertainty quantification and model selection through leave-one-out cross-validation, and it enables the estimation of screening-related overdiagnosis rates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using simulated data, showing that the sampling algorithm efficiently explores the joint posterior distribution of model parameters and latent variables. Finally, we apply our method to data from the US Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium and estimate the extent of breast cancer overdiagnosis associated with mammography screening. The sampler and model comparison method are available in the R package baclava.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Assessing treatment efficacy for interval-censored endpoints using multistate semi-Markov models fit to multiple data streams

We introduce a computationally efficient and general approach for utilizing multiple, possibly interval-censored, data streams to study complex biomedical endpoints using multistate semi-Markov models. Our motivating application is the REGEN-2069 trial, which investigated the protective efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal antibody combination REGEN-COV against SARS-CoV-2 when administered prophylactically to individuals in households at high risk of secondary transmission. Using data on symptom onset, episodic RT-qPCR sampling, and serological testing, we estimate the PE of REGEN-COV for asymptomatic infection, its effect on seroconversion following infection, and the duration of viral shedding. We find that REGEN-COV reduced the risk of asymptomatic infection and the duration of viral shedding, and led to lower rates of seroconversion among asymptomatically infected participants. Our algorithm for fitting semi-Markov models to interval-censored data employs a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm combined with importance sampling to efficiently address the intractability of the marginal likelihood when data are intermittently observed. Our algorithm provide substantial computational improvements over existing methods and allows us to fit semi-parametric models despite complex coarsening of the data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Exact Inference for Stochastic Epidemic Models via Uniformly Ergodic Block Sampling

Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the likelihood for many classical models. To remedy this issue, this article introduces a novel data-augmented MCMC algorithm for exact Bayesian inference under the stochastic SIR model, given only discretely observed counts of infection. In a Metropolis-Hastings step, the latent data are jointly proposed from a surrogate process carefully designed to closely resemble the SIR model, from which we can efficiently generate epidemics consistent with the observed data. This yields a method that explores the high-dimensional latent space efficiently, and scales to outbreaks with hundreds of thousands of individuals. We show that the Markov chain underlying the algorithm is uniformly ergodic, and validate its performance via thorough simulation experiments and a case study on the 2013-2015 outbreak of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in Western Africa.

stat.CO↗