Performance Evaluation of the WeatherEx Forecasting System (WFS) for Extreme Monsoon Rainfall over Kerala
Extreme monsoon rainfall over Kerala presents a major operational forecasting challenge because of the interaction of Arabian Sea moisture transport, mesoscale convection, coastal convergence, and strong orographic forcing along the Western Ghats. Spatial analysis showed that WFS reproduced the principal Western-Ghats-aligned rainfall corridor and represented localized high-intensity rainfall structures more distinctly than the smoother global-model guidance examined for the event. The results demonstrate the complementary roles of operational regional guidance and higher-resolution diagnostic forecasts and highlight the importance of region-specific calibration, spatial verification, and continued evaluation across multiple monsoon events and forecast lead times.