arXiv subjects

Rasmus Bramstoft

Publications and source records attributed to Rasmus Bramstoft.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Planning for climate neutrality in the Nordic power sector: Insights from a non-harmonised comparison of eight energy system models

The Nordic countries have adopted ambitious climate targets that require far-reaching power-sector transformations, making energy system modelling an important input to long-term planning. However, model-based evidence is produced using different model structures, assumptions, scopes, and scenario designs. This paper examines what can be learned from comparing such independently developed scenarios by assessing Nordic power-sector climate-neutrality pathways across eight structurally diverse energy system models. The comparison covers Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for 2030, 2040, and 2050, and focuses on electricity demand, generation capacity, CCS deployment, and power-sector CO2 emissions. Inputs are not harmonised; instead, outputs are compared using a common reporting basis reflecting how modelling evidence is encountered in applied policy contexts. The results show broad agreement on the direction of transition. Wind power, mainly onshore but complemented by offshore wind in some countries, is the clearest cross-model finding and forms the backbone of the Nordic power system by 2050. At the same time, installed capacities, CCS deployment, nuclear outcomes, and emissions levels vary substantially. These differences are interpreted considering renewable-resource potentials, technology availability, policy constraints, sectoral and geographical scope, emissions-accounting boundaries, and different implementations of climate-neutrality targets. The study shows that non-harmonised model comparisons can support policy analysis by identifying where models point in the same direction, such as wind expansion, and where outcomes depend more strongly on model and scenario assumptions, such as CCS, nuclear, and net-negative emissions. For policy use, the findings underline the need to report model scope, technology representation, policy constraints, and emissions-accounting boundaries..

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Renewable fuel regulation: Implications for e-fuel production infrastructure in energy hubs

Renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) are needed to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors that rely on liquid or gaseous fuels, such as long-haul shipping. The EU's Delegated Act on RFNBOs defines renewable hydrogen by considering rules on additionality as well as temporal and geographical correlation of the electricity used. For a Danish case study, we examine the impact on the capacity expansion problem of an energy hub producing renewable hydrogen, e-methanol, and e-ammonia using a mixed-integer linear problem formulation. We analyze the investments in production capacity, storage assets, and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) volume under different fuel price assumptions for 2030. We find that e-methanol (combined with limited storage to secure hydrogen supply to the synthesizer) provides the best business case with a PPA volume based on the maximum allowed electrolyzer size.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Power-to-X in Energy Hubs: Operations and Policies Supporting the Scale-Up of Renewable Fuel Production

Power-to-X (P2X) needs to scale up rapidly to provide the fuels required in the hard-to-decarbonize industrial and heavy transport sector. Only recently, the European Commission proposed requirements for \textit{renewable} fuels. P2X energy hubs enable efficient synergies between energy infrastructures, production facilities, and storage options. In this study, we explore the optimal operation of an energy hub by leveraging the flexibility of P2X including hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia synthesizers, and analyze potential revenue streams such as the day-ahead and ancillary service markets. We propose EnerHub2X, a mixed-integer linear program that maximizes the hub's profit based on current market prices, considering technical constraints of P2X such as unit commitment and non-linear efficiencies. We model a representative Danish energy hub and find that without price incentives, it mainly produces liquid hydrogen and sells renewable electricity. Only by adding a price premium of about 50\% (0.16 \euro{}/kg) to the conventional fuel prices, sufficient amounts of renewable ammonia and methanol are produced. To utilize production efficiently, on-site renewable capacity and P2X must be carefully aligned. We show that renewable power purchase agreements can provide flexibility while complying with the rules set by the European Commission.

physics.soc-ph↗