SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Ravi Kopparapu

Publications and source records attributed to Ravi Kopparapu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Limits on Kinematic Inference from the PURSUE Airborne Sensor Videos

This paper analyzes the 112 sensor videos released under the PURSUE (Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters) initiative. Redactions to on-screen displays limit information available for identifying the reported unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). Converting the rate at which any object transits across part or all of a frame from pixels per frame to a physical velocity requires (1) the range to the object, (2) the velocity of the observing aircraft, (3) the aspect angle between the object's path and observer, and (4) the field angle of the camera. No PURSUE video provides this set of information. In one clip (DOW-UAP-PR113), the object crosses depression-angle markings, which allows reconstruction of the camera's field of view. Even this clip does not provide sufficient information to distinguish between a bird flying at close range and a large craft traveling at Mach 5 a kilometer away. A second clip (DOW-UAP-PR149) includes a vessel of known size in the frame, which can be used as a reference to calculate an upper bound of Mach 0.4 on the object's relative velocity. Without further information, the PURSUE sensor videos in their present form cannot fully resolve unidentified cases or conclusively indicate anomalous velocities.

physics.pop-ph

The First Remotely Detected Biosignature May Not Be the Most Common: Implications for JWST and HWO

The first detected member of a new astronomical class is often not representative of the underlying population, but instead reflects the selection effects of the observing technique that found it. We apply this idea to the first remote detection of biosignatures with two leading near future strategies: JWST transmission spectroscopy and HWO reflected light direct imaging. Using the known signal scalings of the two methods together with a simple detectability model, we show how a rare but observationally favored planet class can dominate early detections even when it is intrinsically uncommon. For JWST, an early biosignature detection is most likely to arise from a detectability favored outlier, such as a sub-Neptune or other atmosphere rich planet around a nearby M dwarf, rather than from a true Earth analog. For HWO, the situation is subtler. Among accessible habitable-zone targets around FGK-type stars, differences in maximum observable distance and hence in effective survey volume may be smaller than in the JWST case, weakening the volume bias. At the same time, stellar-type-dependent photochemistry can alter biosignature abundances, so the first HWO biosignature may emerge from a balance between photochemical enhancement and geometric accessibility. Nevertheless, within the accessible sample, planets with stronger biosignature features and higher reflected light contrast may still be favored in early detections. A first HWO biosignature could be a selection favored outlier and should not be assumed to represent inhabited rocky planets in general. Crucially, the longest lived biosphere on a planet is not necessarily its most spectrally detectable one. If the first detection turns out to be an outlier, that may still suggest that a more broader range of habitable environments awaits discovery.

astro-ph.EP

Atmospheric Escape Rates from Mars - If it Orbited an Old M-Dwarf Star

Atmospheric escape is an important process that influences the evolution of planetary atmospheres. A variety of physical mechanisms can contribute to escape from an atmosphere, including thermal escape, ion escape, photochemical escape, and sputtering. Here we estimate escape rates via each of these processes for a hypothetical Mars-like exoplanet orbiting Barnard's star (an old, inactive M dwarf star). We place the planet at an orbital distance that receives the same total stellar flux as it does in our solar system. We use the measured stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum and assumptions on the star's magnetic field to determine both the high-energy radiation and the stellar wind environment around the planet. This information is used to model the response of the planet's thermosphere, exosphere and magnetosphere using a variety of models that have been validated against solar system observations. We find overall escape rates that are dominated by thermal processes and elevated by 2-5 orders of magnitude relative to present-day Mars, suggesting that a Mars-like planet orbiting Barnard's star would not retain a significant atmosphere for more than 10's of millions of years. Recently reported planets around Barnard's star should also not have retained significant atmospheres. By extension, Mars-like planets orbiting any M dwarf near the 'Habitable Zone' should not retain atmospheres for extended periods of time.

astro-ph.EP

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO): Living Worlds Community Working Group: The Search for Life on Potentially Habitable Exoplanets

The discovery of a biosphere on another planet would transform how we view ourselves, and our planet Earth, in relation to the rest of the cosmos. We now know Earth is one planet among eight circling our sun; our sun is part of a swirling galaxy of over one hundred billion other suns; and our galaxy is one of untold billions in the universe. While we do not yet know how many, if any, other biospheres exist on the countless worlds orbiting countless other suns, we stand at the precipice of a new era of discovery, enabled by powerful new facilities able to peer across the light years into the atmospheres of planets similar to our own. This article is an adaptation of a science case document (SCDD) developed for the NASA Astrophysics Flagship mission the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) Science, Technology, and Architecture Review Team (START) Living Worlds Community Working Group.

astro-ph.IM

NASA Decadal Astrobiology Research and Exploration Strategy (NASA-DARES 2025) White Paper -- Habitable Worlds Observatory Living Worlds Science Cases: Research Gaps and Needs

Executive Summary: The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is the first astrophysics flagship mission with a key cross-divisional astrobiology science goal of searching for signs of life on rocky planets beyond our solar system. The Living Worlds Working Group under the Science, Technology, and Architecture Review Team (START) was charged with investigating how HWO could characterize potentially habitable exoplanets orbiting stars in the solar neighborhood, search for signs of life, and interpret potential biosignatures within a false positive and false negative framework. In particular, we focused on (1) identifying biosignatures that have spectral features in the UV-Vis-NIR wavelength range and defining their measurement requirements, (2) determining additional information needed from the planet and planet system to interpret biosignatures and assess the likelihood of false positives, and (3) assembling current knowledge of likely HWO target stars and identify which properties of host stars and systems are most critical to know in advance of HWO. The Living Worlds atmospheric biosignatures science case is considered one of the key drivers in the design of the observatory. An additional 10 astrobiology science cases were developed that collectively revealed key research gaps and needs required to fully explore the observatory parameter space and perform science return analyses. Investment in these research gaps will require coordination across the Science Mission Directorate and fall under the purview of the new Division-spanning astrobiology strategy.

astro-ph.IM

Projections of Earth's Technosphere: Strategies for Observing Technosignatures on Terrestrial Exoplanets

The search for technosignatures--remotely detectable evidence of extraterrestrial technology--draws upon examples from the recent history of Earth as well as projections of Earth's technosphere. Facilities like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will significantly advance the feasibility of characterizing the atmospheres of habitable exoplanets at visible and near-infrared wavelengths, while other future mission concepts could extend this search to mid-infrared wavelengths. We draw upon a recently developed set of 10 self-consistent scenarios for future Earth technospheres as analogs for extraterrestrial technospheres, which we use to outline a stepwise technosignature search strategy, beginning with HWO and followed by other missions. We find that HWO could reveal elevated abundances of a CO$_2$ + NO$_2$ pair on planets with combustion and other large-scale industry, which could be observable in up to eight of the 10 scenarios. Follow-up radio observations could reveal narrowband directed transmissions, as occur in two of the scenarios. Further study involving direct detections at mid-infrared wavelengths with the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets could reveal spectral features from industry, such as the combinations of CO$_2$ + CFC-11/12 in four scenarios and CO$_2$ + CFC-11/12 + CF$_4$ in one scenario; two of these also include the N$_2$O + CH$_4$ + NH$_3$ triple from large-scale agriculture. Other mission concepts, such as a solar-gravitational-lens mission, could reveal large-scale surface features in two scenarios that would otherwise show no detectable technosignatures, while an interplanetary flyby or probe mission would be the most conclusive way to reveal the presence of technology on terrestrial exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP

Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, $\eta_{\oplus}$, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of $\eta_{\oplus}$. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to $\eta_{\oplus}$. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain $\eta_{\oplus}$. Understanding and refining the value of $\eta_{\oplus}$ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

astro-ph.EP

Discovery of a Nearby Habitable Zone Super-Earth Candidate Amenable to Direct Imaging

We present the discovery of GJ 251 c, a candidate super-Earth orbiting in the Habitable Zone (HZ) of its M dwarf host star. Using high-precision Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) and NEID RVs, in conjunction with archival RVs from the Keck I High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES), the Calar Alto high-Resolution search for M dwarfs with Exoearths with Near-infrared and optical Echelle Spectrograph (CARMENES), and the SPectropolarim\`etre InfraROUge (SPIRou), we improve the measured parameters of the known planet, GJ 251 b ($P_{b}$ = 14.2370 days; $m \sin(i)$ = 3.85$^{+0.35}_{-0.33}$ M$_{\oplus}$), and we significantly constrain the minimum mass of GJ 251 c, placing it in a plausibly terrestrial regime (P$_{c}$ = 53.647 $\pm$ 0.044 days; $ m \sin i_{c}$ = 3.84 $\pm$ 0.75 M$_{\oplus}$). Using activity mitigation techniques that leverage chromatic information content, we perform a color-dependent analysis of the system and a detailed comparison of more than 50 models that describe the nature of the planets and stellar activity in the system. Due to GJ 251's proximity to Earth (5.5 pc), next generation, thirty meter class telescopes will likely be able to image terrestrial planets in GJ 251's HZ. In fact, GJ 251 c is currently the best candidate for terrestrial, HZ planet imaging in the Northern Sky.

astro-ph.EP

Earth as an Exoplanet: Investigating the effects of cloud variability on the direct-imaging of atmospheres

A planet's spectrum is dynamic and only represents a time-dependent snapshot of its properties. Changing atmospheric conditions due to climate and weather patterns, particularly variation in cloud cover, can significantly affect the spectrum in ways that complicate the understanding of a planet's baseline atmospheric properties. Variable cloud cover and cloud properties affect the detectability of atmospheric constituents, and also greatly influence the radiative transfer that determines a planet's spectrum. This has considerable implications for direct imaging observations of potentially habitable exoplanets and thus it is critical to study and characterize the effects of clouds on their spectra. Clouds have been extensively modeled before and their effects have been incorporated across climate frameworks spanning a spectrum of complexity. Given the challenges associated with modeling clouds, we adopt a novel approach in this work to study the effects of clouds by using real-time cloud data from Earth observations. Treating Earth as an exoplanet and using detailed observations from the MERRA 2 data collection, we quantify the effects of cloud variability on the spectrum as well as on the detectability of atmospheric constituents, specifically biomarkers like O2, O3 and H2O. The coverage and vertical position of clouds significantly affects the SNRs of these gases and subsequently their detectability in exo-Earth atmospheres. Moreover, we show that variations in the amount of cloud cover will potentially confound efforts to retrieve a stable baseline atmosphere for a planet. This work has important applications to future direct-imaging missions like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO).

astro-ph.EP

Earth Detecting Earth: At what distance could Earth's constellation of technosignatures be detected with present-day technology?

The field of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) searches for ``technosignatures'' that could provide the first detection of life beyond Earth through the technology that an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) may have created. Any given SETI survey, if no technosignatures are detected, should set upper limits based on the kinds of technosignatures it should have been able to detect; the sensitivity of many SETI searches requires that their target sources (e.g., Dyson spheres or Kardashev II/III level radio transmitters) emit with power far exceeding the kinds of technology humans have developed. In this paper, we instead turn our gaze Earthward, minimizing the axis of extrapolation by only considering transmission and detection methods commensurate with an Earth-2024 level. We evaluate the maximum distance of detectability for various present-day Earth technosignatures -- radio transmissions, atmospheric technosignatures, optical and infrared signatures, and objects in space or on planetary surfaces -- using only present-day Earth instruments, providing one of the first fully cross-wavelength comparisons of the growing toolbox of SETI techniques. In this framework, we find that Earth's space-detectable signatures span 13 orders of magnitude in detectability, with intermittent, celestially-targeted radio transmission (i.e., planetary radar) beating out its nearest non-radio competitor by a factor of $10^3$ in detection distance. This work highlights the growing range of ways that exoplanet technosignatures may be expressed, the growing complexity and visibility of the human impact upon our planet, and the continued importance of the radio frequencies in SETI.

astro-ph.IM

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) as an Extraterrestrial Atmospheric Technosignature

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons are prevalent in the universe and interstellar medium but are primarily attributed to anthropogenic sources on Earth, such as fossil fuel combustion and firewood burning. Drawing upon the idea of PAHs as suitable candidates for technosignatures, we investigate the detectability of those PAHs that have available absorption cross-sections in the atmospheres of Earth-like exoplanets (orbiting G-type stars at a distance of 10 parsecs) with an 8m mirror of Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Specifically, we focus on Naphthalene, Anthracene, Phenanthrene, and Pyrene. Our simulations indicate that under current Earth-like conditions, detecting PAH signatures between 0.2-0.515 $\mathrm{\mu m}$ is infeasible. To account for the historical decline in PAH production post-industrial revolution, we explore varying PAH concentrations to assess instrumental capabilities to detect civilizations resembling modern Earth. We also evaluate telescope architectures (6m, 8m, and 10m mirror diameters) to put our results into the context of the future HWO mission. With these four molecules, PAH detection remains infeasible, even at concentrations ten times higher than current levels. While larger mirrors provide some advantages, they fail to resolve the spectral signatures of these molecules with significant signal-to-noise ratios. The UV absorption features of PAHs, caused by $\mathrm{\pi}$-orbital $\rightarrow$ $\mathrm{\pi^*}$-orbital electronic transitions, serve as valuable markers due to their distinct and detectable nature, preserved by the aromatic stability of PAHs. Additional lab measurements are necessary to gather absorption cross-section data beyond UV for more abundant PAHs. This may help further in improving the detectability of these molecules.

astro-ph.EP

Projections of Earth's technosphere: Scenario modeling, worldbuilding, and overview of remotely detectable technosignatures

This study uses methods from futures studies to develop a set of ten self-consistent scenarios for Earth's 1000-year future, which can serve as examples for defining technosignature search strategies. We apply a novel worldbuilding pipeline that evaluates the dimensions of human needs in each scenario as a basis for defining the observable properties of the technosphere. Our scenarios include three with zero-growth stability, two that have collapsed into a stable state, one that oscillates between growth and collapse, and four that continue to grow. Only one scenario includes rapid growth that could lead to interstellar expansion. We examine absorption spectral features for a few scenarios to illustrate that nitrogen dioxide can serve as a technosignature to distinguish between present-day Earth, pre-agricultural Earth, and an industrial 1000-year future Earth. Three of our scenarios are spectrally indistinguishable from pre-agricultural Earth, even though these scenarios include expansive technospheres. Up to nine of these scenarios could represent steady-state examples that could persist for much longer timescales, and it remains possible that short-duration technospheres could be the most abundant. Our scenario set provides the basis for further systematic thinking about technosignature detection as well as for imagining a broad range of possibilities for Earth's future.

physics.soc-ph

Detectability of Solar Panels as a Technosignature

In this work, we assess the potential detectability of solar panels made of silicon on an Earth-like exoplanet as a potential technosignature. Silicon-based photovoltaic cells have high reflectance in the UV-VIS and in the near-IR, within the wavelength range of a space-based flagship mission concept like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Assuming that only solar energy is used to provide the 2022 human energy needs with a land cover of ~2.4%, and projecting the future energy demand assuming various growth-rate scenarios, we assess the detectability with an 8 m HWO-like telescope. Assuming the most favorable viewing orientation, and focusing on the strong absorption edge in the ultraviolet-to-visible (0.34 - 0.52 um), we find that several 100s of hours of observation time is needed to reach a SNR of 5 for an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star at 10pc, even with a solar panel coverage of ~23% land coverage of a future Earth. We discuss the necessity of concepts like Kardeshev Type I/II civilizations and Dyson spheres, which would aim to harness vast amounts of energy. Even with much larger populations than today, the total energy use of human civilization would be orders of magnitude below the threshold for causing direct thermal heating or reaching the scale of a Kardashev Type I civilization. Any extraterrrestrial civilization that likewise achieves sustainable population levels may also find a limit on its need to expand, which suggests that a galaxy-spanning civilization as imagined in the Fermi paradox may not exist.

astro-ph.IM

RoSETZ: Roman Survey of the Earth Transit Zone -- a SETI-optimized survey for habitable-zone exoplanets

In this White Paper for Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) science, we propose the Roman Survey of the Earth Transit Zone (RoSETZ), a transit search for rocky planets within the habitable zones (HZs) of stars located within the Earth Transit Zone (ETZ). The ETZ holds special interest in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI) - observers on planets within the ETZ can see Earth as a transiting planet. RoSETZ would augment the Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS) as an additional field located $\sim 5$~degrees away from other GBTDS fields. Our simulations show that RoSETZ alone can find from 120 to 630 Earth-sized HZ planets around K- and M-type hosts, with the range reflecting different survey design assumptions. These yields are 5-20 times the number currently known. Such a sample will transform our knowledge of ``Eta-Earth'' ($\eta_{\oplus}$) -- the occurrence of Earth-sized HZ planets -- and would be the first catalogue of exoplanets selected in a manner optimized according to the Mutual Detectability targetted-SETI strategy. If it can be accommodated alongside the existing GBTDS design, we favour a RoSETZ-Max design that is observed for the duration of the GBTDS. If not, we show that a slimmed-down RoSETZ-Lite design, occupying two GBTDS seasons, would not significantly impact overall GBTDS exoplanet yields, even if time allocated to it had to come from time allocations to other fields. We argue that the angular separation of RoSETZ from other GBTDS fields permits self-calibration of systematic uncertainties that would otherwise hamper exoplanet demographic modelling of both microlensing and transit datasets. Other science possible with RoSETZ data include studies of small solar system bodies and high resolution 3D extinction mapping.

astro-ph.IM

Two Warm Super-Earths Transiting the Nearby M Dwarf TOI-2095

We report the detection and validation of two planets orbiting TOI-2095 (TIC 235678745). The host star is a 3700K M1V dwarf with a high proper motion. The star lies at a distance of 42 pc in a sparsely populated portion of the sky and is bright in the infrared (K=9). With data from 24 Sectors of observation during TESS's Cycles 2 and 4, TOI-2095 exhibits two sets of transits associated with super-Earth-sized planets. The planets have orbital periods of 17.7 days and 28.2 days and radii of 1.30 and 1.39 Earth radii, respectively. Archival data, preliminary follow-up observations, and vetting analyses support the planetary interpretation of the detected transit signals. The pair of planets have estimated equilibrium temperatures of approximately 400 K, with stellar insolations of 3.23 and 1.73 times that of Earth, placing them in the Venus zone. The planets also lie in a radius regime signaling the transition between rock-dominated and volatile-rich compositions. They are thus prime targets for follow-up mass measurements to better understand the properties of warm, transition radius planets. The relatively long orbital periods of these two planets provide crucial data that can help shed light on the processes that shape the composition of small planets orbiting M dwarfs.

astro-ph.EP

Sporadic Spin-Orbit Variations in Compact Multi-planet Systems and their Influence on Exoplanet Climate

Climate modeling has shown that tidally influenced terrestrial exoplanets, particularly those orbiting M-dwarfs, have unique atmospheric dynamics and surface conditions that may enhance their likelihood to host viable habitats. However, sporadic libration and rotation induced by planetary interactions, such as that due to mean motion resonances (MMRs) in compact planetary systems may destabilize attendant exoplanets away from synchronized states (or 1:1 spin-orbit ratio). Here, we use a three-dimensional N-Rigid-Body integrator and an intermediately-complex general circulation model to simulate the evolving climates of TRAPPIST-1 e and f with different orbital and spin evolution pathways. Planet f perturbed by MMR effects with chaotic spin-variations are colder and dryer compared to their synchronized counterparts due to the zonal drift of the substellar point away from open ocean basins of their initial eyeball states. On the other hand, the differences between perturbed and synchronized planet e are minor due to higher instellation, warmer surfaces, and reduced climate hysteresis. This is the first study to incorporate the time-dependent outcomes of direct gravitational N-Rigid-Body simulations into 3D climate modeling of extrasolar planets and our results show that planets at the outer edge of the habitable zones in compact multiplanet systems are vulnerable to rapid global glaciations. In the absence of external mechanisms such as orbital forcing or tidal heating, these planets could be trapped in permanent snowball states.

astro-ph.EP

Absence of extended atmospheres in low-mass star radius-gap planets GJ 9827 b, GJ 9827 d and TOI-1235 b

\textit{Kepler} showed a paucity of planets with radii of 1.5 - 2 $\mathrm R_{\oplus}$ around solar mass stars but this radius-gap has not been well studied for low-mass star planets. Energy-driven escape models like photoevaporation and core-powered mass-loss predict opposing transition regimes between rocky and non-rocky planets when compared to models depicting planets forming in gas-poor environments. Here we present transit observations of three super-Earth sized planets in the radius-gap around low-mass stars using high-dispersion InfraRed Doppler (IRD) spectrograph on the Subaru 8.2m telescope. The planets GJ 9827 b and d orbit around a K6V star and TOI-1235 b orbits a M0.5 star. We limit any planet-related absorption in the 1083.3 nm lines of triplet He I by placing an upper-limit on the equivalent width of 14.71 m{\AA}, 18.39 m{\AA}, and 1.44 m{\AA}, for GJ 9827 b (99% confidence), GJ 9827 d (99% confidence) and TOI-1235 b (95% confidence) respectively. Using a Parker wind model, we cap the mass-loss at $>$0.25 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ and $>$0.2 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ for GJ 9827 b and d, respectively (99% confidence), and $>$0.05 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ for TOI-1235 b (95\% confidence) for a representative wind temperature of 5000 K. Our observed results for the three planets are more consistent with the predictions from photoevaporation and/or core-powered mass-loss models than the gas-poor formation models. However, more planets in the radius-gap regime around the low-mass stars are needed to robustly predict the atmospheric evolution in planets around low-mass stars.

astro-ph.EP

Community Report from the Biosignatures Standards of Evidence Workshop

The search for life beyond the Earth is the overarching goal of the NASA Astrobiology Program, and it underpins the science of missions that explore the environments of Solar System planets and exoplanets. However, the detection of extraterrestrial life, in our Solar System and beyond, is sufficiently challenging that it is likely that multiple measurements and approaches, spanning disciplines and missions, will be needed to make a convincing claim. Life detection will therefore not be an instantaneous process, and it is unlikely to be unambiguous-yet it is a high-stakes scientific achievement that will garner an enormous amount of public interest. Current and upcoming research efforts and missions aimed at detecting past and extant life could be supported by a consensus framework to plan for, assess and discuss life detection claims (c.f. Green et al., 2021). Such a framework could help increase the robustness of biosignature detection and interpretation, and improve communication with the scientific community and the public. In response to this need, and the call to the community to develop a confidence scale for standards of evidence for biosignature detection (Green et al., 2021), a community-organized workshop was held on July 19-22, 2021. The meeting was designed in a fully virtual (flipped) format. Preparatory materials including readings, instructional videos and activities were made available prior to the workshop, allowing the workshop schedule to be fully dedicated to active community discussion and prompted writing sessions. To maximize global interaction, the discussion components of the workshop were held during business hours in three different time zones, Asia/Pacific, European and US, with daily information hand-off between group organizers.

astro-ph.IM