arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Raymond J. Carroll.
Reply to the "Discussion of "Estimating the Distribution of Dietary Consumption Patterns" by Raymond J. Carroll [arXiv:1405.4667]" by Stephen E. Fienberg and Rebecca C. Steorts [arXiv:1403.0566].
In the United States the preferred method of obtaining dietary intake data is the 24-hour dietary recall, yet the measure of most interest is usual or long-term average daily intake, which is impossible to measure. Thus, usual dietary intake is assessed with considerable measurement error. We were interested in estimating the population distribution of the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), a multi-component dietary quality index involving ratios of interrelated dietary components to energy, among children aged 2-8 in the United States, using a national survey and incorporating survey weights. We developed a highly nonlinear, multivariate zero-inflated data model with measurement error to address this question. Standard nonlinear mixed model software such as SAS NLMIXED cannot handle this problem. We found that taking a Bayesian approach, and using MCMC, resolved the computational issues and doing so enabled us to provide a realistic distribution estimate for the HEI-2005 total score. While our computation and thinking in solving this problem was Bayesian, we relied on the well-known close relationship between Bayesian posterior means and maximum likelihood, the latter not computationally feasible, and thus were able to develop standard errors using balanced repeated replication, a survey-sampling approach.
The data functions that are studied in the course of functional data analysis are assembled from discrete data, and the level of smoothing that is used is generally that which is appropriate for accurate approximation of the conceptually smooth functions that were not actually observed. Existing literature shows that this approach is effective, and even optimal, when using functional data methods for prediction or hypothesis testing. However, in the present paper we show that this approach is not effective in classification problems. There a useful rule of thumb is that undersmoothing is often desirable, but there are several surprising qualifications to that approach. First, the effect of smoothing the training data can be more significant than that of smoothing the new data set to be classified; second, undersmoothing is not always the right approach, and in fact in some cases using a relatively large bandwidth can be more effective; and third, these perverse results are the consequence of very unusual properties of error rates, expressed as functions of smoothing parameters. For example, the orders of magnitude of optimal smoothing parameter choices depend on the signs and sizes of terms in an expansion of error rate, and those signs and sizes can vary dramatically from one setting to another, even for the same classifier.
Bayesian density deconvolution using nonparametric prior distributions is a useful alternative to the frequentist kernel based deconvolution estimators due to its potentially wide range of applicability, straightforward uncertainty quantification and generalizability to more sophisticated models. This article is the first substantive effort to theoretically quantify the behavior of the posterior in this recent line of research. In particular, assuming a known supersmooth error density, a Dirichlet process mixture of Normals on the true density leads to a posterior convergence rate same as the minimax rate $(\log n)^{-η/β}$ adaptively over the smoothness $η$ of an appropriate Hölder space of densities, where $β$ is the degree of smoothness of the error distribution. Our main contribution is achieving adaptive minimax rates with respect to the $L_p$ norm for $2 \leq p \leq \infty$ under mild regularity conditions on the true density. En route, we develop tight concentration bounds for a class of kernel based deconvolution estimators which might be of independent interest.
We provide evidence that a root-mean-square test of goodness-of-fit can be significantly more powerful than state-of-the-art exact tests in detecting deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Unlike Pearson's chi-square test, the log--likelihood-ratio test, and Fisher's exact test, which are sensitive to relative discrepancies between genotypic frequencies, the root-mean-square test is sensitive to absolute discrepancies. This can increase statistical power, as we demonstrate using benchmark datasets and through asymptotic analysis. With the aid of computers, exact P-values for the root-mean-square statistic can be calculated eeffortlessly, and can be easily implemented using the author's freely available code.
We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration.
In the United States the preferred method of obtaining dietary intake data is the 24-hour dietary recall, yet the measure of most interest is usual or long-term average daily intake, which is impossible to measure. Thus, usual dietary intake is assessed with considerable measurement error. Also, diet represents numerous foods, nutrients and other components, each of which have distinctive attributes. Sometimes, it is useful to examine intake of these components separately, but increasingly nutritionists are interested in exploring them collectively to capture overall dietary patterns. Consumption of these components varies widely: some are consumed daily by almost everyone on every day, while others are episodically consumed so that 24-hour recall data are zero-inflated. In addition, they are often correlated with each other. Finally, it is often preferable to analyze the amount of a dietary component relative to the amount of energy (calories) in a diet because dietary recommendations often vary with energy level. The quest to understand overall dietary patterns of usual intake has to this point reached a standstill. There are no statistical methods or models available to model such complex multivariate data with its measurement error and zero inflation. This paper proposes the first such model, and it proposes the first workable solution to fit such a model. After describing the model, we use survey-weighted MCMC computations to fit the model, with uncertainty estimation coming from balanced repeated replication.
The article addresses the problem of detecting presence and location of a small low emission source inside of an object, when the background noise dominates. This problem arises, for instance, in some homeland security applications. The goal is to reach the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) levels on the order of $10^{-3}$. A Bayesian approach to this problem is implemented in 2D. The method allows inference not only about the existence of the source, but also about its location. We derive Bayes factors for model selection and estimation of location based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. A simulation study shows that with sufficiently high total emission level, our method can effectively locate the source.
Although prospective logistic regression is the standard method of analysis for case-control data, it has been recently noted that in genetic epidemiologic studies one can use the ``retrospective'' likelihood to gain major power by incorporating various population genetics model assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg-Equilibrium (HWE), gene-gene and gene-environment independence. In this article we review these modern methods and contrast them with the more classical approaches through two types of applications (i) association tests for typed and untyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and (ii) estimation of haplotype effects and haplotype-environment interactions in the presence of haplotype-phase ambiguity. We provide novel insights to existing methods by construction of various score-tests and pseudo-likelihoods. In addition, we describe a novel two-stage method for analysis of untyped SNPs that can use any flexible external algorithm for genotype imputation followed by a powerful association test based on the retrospective likelihood. We illustrate applications of the methods using simulated and real data.
We compare calcium ion signaling ($\mathrm {Ca}^{2+}$) between two exposures; the data are present as movies, or, more prosaically, time series of images. This paper describes novel uses of singular value decompositions (SVD) and weighted versions of them (WSVD) to extract the signals from such movies, in a way that is semi-automatic and tuned closely to the actual data and their many complexities. These complexities include the following. First, the images themselves are of no interest: all interest focuses on the behavior of individual cells across time, and thus, the cells need to be segmented in an automated manner. Second, the cells themselves have 100$+$ pixels, so that they form 100$+$ curves measured over time, so that data compression is required to extract the features of these curves. Third, some of the pixels in some of the cells are subject to image saturation due to bit depth limits, and this saturation needs to be accounted for if one is to normalize the images in a reasonably unbiased manner. Finally, the $\mathrm {Ca}^{2+}$ signals have oscillations or waves that vary with time and these signals need to be extracted. Thus, our aim is to show how to use multiple weighted and standard singular value decompositions to detect, extract and clarify the $\mathrm {Ca}^{2+}$ signals. Our signal extraction methods then lead to simple although finely focused statistical methods to compare $\mathrm {Ca}^{2+}$ signals across experimental conditions.
This paper considers a wide family of semiparametric repeated measures regression models, in which the main interest is on estimating population-level quantities such as mean, variance, probabilities etc. Examples of our framework include generalized linear models for clustered/longitudinal data, among many others. We derive plug-in kernel-based estimators of the population level quantities and derive their asymptotic distribution. An example involving estimation of the survival function of hemoglobin measures in the Kenya hemoglobin study data is presented to demonstrate our methodology.
In longitudinal and spatial studies, observations often demonstrate strong correlations that are stationary in time or distance lags, and the times or locations of these data being sampled may not be homogeneous. We propose a nonparametric estimator of the correlation function in such data, using kernel methods. We develop a pointwise asymptotic normal distribution for the proposed estimator, when the number of subjects is fixed and the number of vectors or functions within each subject goes to infinity. Based on the asymptotic theory, we propose a weighted block bootstrapping method for making inferences about the correlation function, where the weights account for the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the times or locations. The method is applied to a data set from a colon carcinogenesis study, in which colonic crypts were sampled from a piece of colon segment from each of the 12 rats in the experiment and the expression level of p27, an important cell cycle protein, was then measured for each cell within the sampled crypts. A simulation study is also provided to illustrate the numerical performance of the proposed method.
Discussion of Conditional growth charts [math.ST/0702634]