arXiv subjects

Raymond J. Hawkins

Publications and source records attributed to Raymond J. Hawkins.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2005

Ab initio yield curve dynamics

We derive an equation of motion for interest-rate yield curves by applying a minimum Fisher information variational approach to the implied probability density. By construction, solutions to the equation of motion recover observed bond prices. More significantly, the form of the resulting equation explains the success of the Nelson Siegel approach to fitting static yield curves and the empirically observed modal structure of yield curves. A practical numerical implementation of this equation of motion is found by using the Karhunen-Loeve expansion and Galerkin's method to formulate a reduced-order model of yield curve dynamics.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2003

Financial Probabilities from Fisher Information

We present a novel synthesis of Fisher information and asset pricing theory that yields a practical method for reconstructing the probability density implicit in security prices. The Fisher information approach to these inverse problems transforms the search for a probability density into the solution of a differential equation for which a substantial collection of numerical methods exist. We illustrate the potential of this approach by calculating the probability density implicit in both bond and option prices. Comparing the results of this approach with those obtained using maximum entropy we find that Fisher information usually results in probability densities that are smoother than those obtained using maximum entropy.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2000

Corporate Default Behavior: A Simple Stochastic Model

We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based on a contingent-claims analysis of corporate capital structure, is easily calibrated with readily available historical default probabilities and fits observed default data published by Standard and Poor's. Applying this model to the Standard and Poor's default data we find that the difference in default behavior between credit ratings can be explained largely by a single variable: the "distance to default" at the time the rating is given. The ability to represent observed default behavior by a single analytic expression and to differentiate credit-rating-dependent default behavior with a single variable recommends this model for a variety of risk management applications including the mapping of bank default experience to public credit ratings.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2000

Relaxation Processes in Administered-Rate Pricing

We show how a novel application of the theory of anelasticity unifies the observed dynamics and proposed models of administered-rate products. This theory yields a straightforward approach to rate model construction that we illustrate by simulating the observed relaxation dynamics of two administered rate products. We also demonstrate how the use of this formalism leads to a natural definition of market friction.

cond-mat↗