arXiv subjects

Raymond K. W. Wong

Publications and source records attributed to Raymond K. W. Wong.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Wavelet-Based Independence Test for Functional Data with an Application to MEG Functional Connectivity

Measuring and testing the dependency between multiple random functions is often an important task in functional data analysis. In the literature, a model-based method relies on a model which is subject to the risk of model misspecification, while a model-free method only provides a correlation measure which is inadequate to test independence. In this paper, we adopt the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) to measure the dependency between two random functions. We develop a two-step procedure by first pre-smoothing each function based on its discrete and noisy measurements and then applying the HSIC to recovered functions. To ensure the compatibility between the two steps such that the effect of the pre-smoothing error on the subsequent HSIC is asymptotically negligible when the data are densely measured, we propose a new wavelet thresholding method for pre-smoothing and to use Besov-norm-induced kernels for HSIC. We also provide the corresponding asymptotic analysis. The superior numerical performance of the proposed method over existing ones is demonstrated in a simulation study. Moreover, in an magnetoencephalography (MEG) data application, the functional connectivity patterns identified by the proposed method are more anatomically interpretable than those by existing methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Revisiting Neural Processes via Fourier Transform and Volterra Series

Modeling unknown latent functions from finite, irregularly sampled measurements is a recurring challenge across science and engineering. Neural processes (NPs), a family of probabilistic functional models, are promising solutions -- especially when endowed with domain-specific symmetries like translation equivariance, which improve sample efficiency and generalization. Yet existing translation-equivariant NPs face two limitations: (i) they stack generic components with non-linearities, obscuring the induced function class and limiting interpretability; and (ii) convolutional designs are limited by local receptive fields and the need to embed inputs onto a dense uniform grid, while attention-based alternatives lift these restrictions at quadratic cost in the number of observations. We address both with two contributions. First, using the Volterra expansion, we approximate continuous translation-equivariant operators by sums of higher-order convolutions, yielding analytical transparency while admitting efficient evaluation via first-order convolutions. Second, we introduce set Fourier convolutions (SFConvs), a frequency-domain parameterization that operates directly on irregularly sampled points, achieves approximately global receptive fields, and scales linearly in the number of observations. Building on these ideas, we propose two conditional NPs (CNPs): SFConvCNPs, which stack SFConv blocks with non-linearities, and SFVConvCNPs, which integrate the Volterra formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our methods' efficacy against state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Low-rank Distributional Matrix Completion

We study a distributional generalization of the matrix completion problem in which each entry of the target matrix is a probability distribution rather than a scalar. In this setting, only a subset of matrix entries is observed, and even for observed entries, the underlying distributions are not directly accessible; instead, we observe finitely many samples drawn from them. To represent distributional entries, we employ kernel mean embeddings and introduce a notion of Tucker rank for distribution-valued matrices to capture their low-rank structure. The infinite-dimensional nature of kernel embeddings poses significant methodological challenges. To address this, we introduce functional unfolding operators that link the proposed distributional low-rank structure to the classical Tucker rank for finite-dimensional tensors. Based on this framework, we propose a novel estimator for distributional matrix completion. We establish non-asymptotic error bounds that characterize the statistical performance of the estimator. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Density-aware Sample-specific Attack

Despite recent progress in backdoor attacks, existing methods remain susceptible to post-training defenses that erase the backdoor through fine-tuning or pruning. We revisit the core objectives of backdoor attacks and derive principled criteria characterizing optimal sample-specific trigger construction under a Bayes-optimal model of the victim's training. Our analysis reveals that both attack success and clean-accuracy preservation are simultaneously optimized when triggered samples are steered into low-density regions of the clean data distribution, a distributional condition that controls all moments of the poisoned distribution at once rather than a handful of input-space summary statistics. We introduce a bilevel optimization framework that estimates density ratios via conditional time-score matching and optimizes a mixture-model objective to place triggered samples in these sparse regions. Extensive evaluations on MNIST, CIFAR-10, GTSRB, and TinyImageNet demonstrate that our method achieves above 99\% attack success rate before defense and retains 50--85 percentage points higher post-defense ASR than the strongest baselines under fine-tuning defenses. Against neuron-pruning defenses, the method exhibits complete immunity, with zero neurons identified for removal across all pruning thresholds. These results expose a fundamental gap in current defense paradigms and underscore the need for defenses that operate beyond the support of the clean distribution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

cyclinbayes: Bayesian Causal Discovery with Linear Non-Gaussian Directed Acyclic and Cyclic Graphical Models

We introduce cyclinbayes, an open-source R package for discovering linear causal relationships with both acyclic and cyclic structures. The package employs scalable Bayesian approaches with spike-and-slab priors to learn directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and directed cyclic graphs (DCGs) under non-Gaussian noise. A central feature of cyclinbayes is comprehensive uncertainty quantification, including posterior edge inclusion probabilities, posterior probabilities of network motifs, and posterior probabilities over entire graph structures. Our implementation addresses two limitations in existing software: (1) while methods for linear non-Gaussian DAG learning are available in R and Python, they generally lack proper uncertainty quantification, and (2) reliable implementations for linear non-Gaussian DCG remain scarce. The package implements computationally efficient hybrid MCMC algorithms that scale to large datasets. Beyond uncertainty quantification, we propose a new decision-theoretic approach to summarize posterior samples of graphs, yielding principled point estimates based on posterior expected loss such as posterior expected structural Hamming distance and structural intervention distance. The package, a supplementary material, and a tutorial are available on GitHub at https://github.com/roblee01/cyclinbayes.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Fair Regression under Demographic Parity: A Unified Framework

We propose a unified framework for fair regression tasks formulated as risk minimization problems subject to a demographic parity constraint. Unlike many existing approaches that are limited to specific loss functions or rely on challenging non-convex optimization, our framework is applicable to a broad spectrum of regression tasks. Examples include linear regression with squared loss, binary classification with cross-entropy loss, quantile regression with pinball loss, and robust regression with Huber loss. We derive a novel characterization of the fair risk minimizer, which yields a computationally efficient estimation procedure for general loss functions. Theoretically, we establish the asymptotic consistency of the proposed estimator and derive its convergence rates under mild assumptions. We illustrate the method's versatility through detailed discussions of several common loss functions. Numerical results demonstrate that our approach effectively minimizes risk while satisfying fairness constraints across various regression settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A Principled Path to Fitted Distributional Evaluation

In reinforcement learning, distributional off-policy evaluation (OPE) focuses on estimating the return distribution of a target policy using offline data collected under a different policy. This work focuses on extending the widely used fitted Q-evaluation -- developed for expectation-based reinforcement learning -- to the distributional OPE setting. We refer to this extension as fitted distributional evaluation (FDE). While only a few related approaches exist, there remains no unified framework for designing FDE methods. To fill this gap, we present a set of guiding principles for constructing theoretically grounded FDE methods. Building on these principles, we develop several new FDE methods with convergence analysis and provide theoretical justification for existing methods, even in non-tabular environments. Extensive experiments, including simulations on linear quadratic regulators and Atari games, demonstrate the superior performance of the FDE methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Estimation under Multiple Missing Patterns via Balancing Weights

As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and conventional methods cannot be applied. Pattern graphs have recently been proposed as a tool to systematically relate various observed patterns in the sample. We extend its scope to the estimation of parameters defined by moment equations, including common regression models, via solving weighted estimating equations with weights constructed using a sequential balancing approach. These novel weights are carefully crafted to address the instability issue of the straightforward approach based on local balancing. We derive the efficiency bound for the model parameters and show that our proposed method, albeit relatively simple, is asymptotically efficient. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method, and real-data applications illustrate how the results are robust to the choice of identification assumptions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Distributional Off-policy Evaluation with Bellman Residual Minimization

We study distributional off-policy evaluation (OPE), of which the goal is to learn the distribution of the return for a target policy using offline data generated by a different policy. The theoretical foundation of many existing work relies on the supremum-extended statistical distances such as supremum-Wasserstein distance, which are hard to estimate. In contrast, we study the more manageable expectation-extended statistical distances and provide a novel theoretical justification on their validity for learning the return distribution. Based on this attractive property, we propose a new method called Energy Bellman Residual Minimizer (EBRM) for distributional OPE. We provide corresponding in-depth theoretical analyses. We establish a finite-sample error bound for the EBRM estimator under the realizability assumption. Furthermore, we introduce a variant of our method based on a multi-step extension which improves the error bound for non-realizable settings. Notably, unlike prior distributional OPE methods, the theoretical guarantees of our method do not require the completeness assumption.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Balancing Weights for Non-monotone Missing Data

Balancing weights have been widely applied to single or monotone missingness due to empirical advantages over likelihood-based methods and inverse probability weighting approaches. This paper considers non-monotone missing data under the complete-case missing variable condition (CCMV), a case of missing not at random (MNAR). Using relationships between each missing pattern and the complete-case subsample, we construct a weighted estimator for estimation, where the weight is a sum of ratios of the conditional probability of observing a particular missing pattern versus that of observing the complete-case, given the variables observed in the corresponding missing pattern. However, plug-in estimators of the propensity odds can be unbounded and lead to unstable estimation. Using further relations between propensity odds and balancing of moments across response patterns, we employ tailored loss functions, each encouraging empirical balance across patterns to estimate propensity odds flexibly using a functional basis expansion. We propose two penalizations to control propensity odds model smoothness and empirical imbalance. We study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and show that they are consistent under mild smoothness assumptions. Asymptotic normality and efficiency are developed. Simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Flexible Functional Treatment Effect Estimation

We study treatment effect estimation with functional treatments where the average potential outcome functional is a function of functions, in contrast to continuous treatment effect estimation where the target is a function of real numbers. By considering a flexible scalar-on-function marginal structural model, a weight-modified kernel ridge regression (WMKRR) is adopted for estimation. The weights are constructed by directly minimizing the uniform balancing error resulting from a decomposition of the WMKRR estimator, instead of being estimated under a particular treatment selection model. Despite the complex structure of the uniform balancing error derived under WMKRR, finite-dimensional convex algorithms can be applied to efficiently solve for the proposed weights thanks to a representer theorem. The optimal convergence rate is shown to be attainable by the proposed WMKRR estimator without any smoothness assumption on the true weight function. Corresponding empirical performance is demonstrated by a simulation study and a real data application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

A Fine-grained Analysis of Fitted Q-evaluation: Beyond Parametric Models

In this paper, we delve into the statistical analysis of the fitted Q-evaluation (FQE) method, which focuses on estimating the value of a target policy using offline data generated by some behavior policy. We provide a comprehensive theoretical understanding of FQE estimators under both parameteric and nonparametric models on the $Q$-function. Specifically, we address three key questions related to FQE that remain largely unexplored in the current literature: (1) Is the optimal convergence rate for estimating the policy value regarding the sample size $n$ ($n^{-1/2}$) achievable for FQE under a non-parametric model with a fixed horizon ($T$)? (2) How does the error bound depend on the horizon $T$? (3) What is the role of the probability ratio function in improving the convergence of FQE estimators? Specifically, we show that under the completeness assumption of $Q$-functions, which is mild in the non-parametric setting, the estimation errors for policy value using both parametric and non-parametric FQE estimators can achieve an optimal rate in terms of $n$. The corresponding error bounds in terms of both $n$ and $T$ are also established. With an additional realizability assumption on ratio functions, the rate of estimation errors can be improved from $T^{1.5}/\sqrt{n}$ to $T/\sqrt{n}$, which matches the sharpest known bound in the current literature under the tabular setting.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Broadcasted Nonparametric Tensor Regression

We propose a novel use of a broadcasting operation, which distributes univariate functions to all entries of the tensor covariate, to model the nonlinearity in tensor regression nonparametrically. A penalized estimation and the corresponding algorithm are proposed. Our theoretical investigation, which allows the dimensions of the tensor covariate to diverge, indicates that the proposed estimation yields a desirable convergence rate. We also provide a minimax lower bound, which characterizes the optimality of the proposed estimator for a wide range of scenarios. Numerical experiments are conducted to confirm the theoretical findings, and they show that the proposed model has advantages over its existing linear counterparts.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Prediction of Tropical Pacific Rain Rates with Over-parameterized Neural Networks

The prediction of tropical rain rates from atmospheric profiles poses significant challenges, mainly due to the heavy-tailed distribution exhibited by tropical rainfall. This study introduces over-parameterized neural networks not only to forecast tropical rain rates, but also to explain their heavy-tailed distribution. The prediction is separately conducted for three rain types (stratiform, deep convective, and shallow convective) observed by the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite radar over the West and East Pacific regions. Atmospheric profiles of humidity, temperature, and zonal and meridional winds from the MERRA-2 reanalysis are considered as features. Although over-parameterized neural networks are well-known for their ``double descent phenomenon," little has been explored about their applicability to climate data and capability of capturing the tail behavior of data. In our results, over-parameterized neural networks accurately predict the rain rate distributions and outperform other machine learning methods. Spatial maps show that over-parameterized neural networks also successfully describe spatial patterns of each rain type across the tropical Pacific. In addition, we assess the feature importance for each over-parameterized neural network to provide insight into the key factors driving the predictions, with low-level humidity and temperature variables being the overall most important. These findings highlight the capability of over-parameterized neural networks in predicting the distribution of the rain rate and explaining extreme values.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Directed Cyclic Graph for Causal Discovery from Multivariate Functional Data

Discovering causal relationship using multivariate functional data has received a significant amount of attention very recently. In this article, we introduce a functional linear structural equation model for causal structure learning when the underlying graph involving the multivariate functions may have cycles. To enhance interpretability, our model involves a low-dimensional causal embedded space such that all the relevant causal information in the multivariate functional data is preserved in this lower-dimensional subspace. We prove that the proposed model is causally identifiable under standard assumptions that are often made in the causal discovery literature. To carry out inference of our model, we develop a fully Bayesian framework with suitable prior specifications and uncertainty quantification through posterior summaries. We illustrate the superior performance of our method over existing methods in terms of causal graph estimation through extensive simulation studies. We also demonstrate the proposed method using a brain EEG dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Nonlinear Tensor Regression with Functional Fused Elastic Net Prior

Tensor regression methods have been widely used to predict a scalar response from covariates in the form of a multiway array. In many applications, the regions of tensor covariates used for prediction are often spatially connected with unknown shapes and discontinuous jumps on the boundaries. Moreover, the relationship between the response and the tensor covariates can be nonlinear. In this article, we develop a nonlinear Bayesian tensor additive regression model to accommodate such spatial structure. A functional fused elastic net prior is proposed over the additive component functions to comprehensively model the nonlinearity and spatial smoothness, detect the discontinuous jumps, and simultaneously identify the active regions. The great flexibility and interpretability of the proposed method against the alternatives are demonstrated by a simulation study and an analysis on facial feature data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Implicit Regularization for Group Sparsity

We study the implicit regularization of gradient descent towards structured sparsity via a novel neural reparameterization, which we call a diagonally grouped linear neural network. We show the following intriguing property of our reparameterization: gradient descent over the squared regression loss, without any explicit regularization, biases towards solutions with a group sparsity structure. In contrast to many existing works in understanding implicit regularization, we prove that our training trajectory cannot be simulated by mirror descent. We analyze the gradient dynamics of the corresponding regression problem in the general noise setting and obtain minimax-optimal error rates. Compared to existing bounds for implicit sparse regularization using diagonal linear networks, our analysis with the new reparameterization shows improved sample complexity. In the degenerate case of size-one groups, our approach gives rise to a new algorithm for sparse linear regression. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with several numerical experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Hierarchical nuclear norm penalization for multi-view data

The prevalence of data collected on the same set of samples from multiple sources (i.e., multi-view data) has prompted significant development of data integration methods based on low-rank matrix factorizations. These methods decompose signal matrices from each view into the sum of shared and individual structures, which are further used for dimension reduction, exploratory analyses, and quantifying associations across views. However, existing methods have limitations in modeling partially-shared structures due to either too restrictive models, or restrictive identifiability conditions. To address these challenges, we formulate a new model for partially-shared signals based on grouping the views into so-called hierarchical levels. The proposed hierarchy leads us to introduce a new penalty, hierarchical nuclear norm (HNN), for signal estimation. In contrast to existing methods, HNN penalization avoids scores and loadings factorization of the signals and leads to a convex optimization problem, which we solve using a dual forward-backward algorithm. We propose a simple refitting procedure to adjust the penalization bias and develop an adapted version of bi-cross-validation for selecting tuning parameters. Extensive simulation studies and analysis of the genotype-tissue expression data demonstrate the advantages of our method over existing alternatives.

stat.ME↗