arXiv subjects

Rebecca Killick

Publications and source records attributed to Rebecca Killick.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A Comparison of Single and Multiple Changepoint Techniques for Time Series Data

This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently. Unfortunately, small perturbations in model assumptions can drastically alter changepoint conclusions; for example, heavy positive correlation in a time series can be misattributed to a mean shift should correlation be ignored. This paper considers both single and multiple changepoint techniques. The paper begins by examining cumulative sum (CUSUM) and likelihood ratio tests and their variants for the single changepoint problem; here, various statistics, boundary cropping scenarios, and scaling methods (e.g., scaling to an extreme value or Brownian Bridge limit) are compared. A recently developed test based on summing squared CUSUM statistics over all times is shown to have realistic Type I errors and superior detection power. The paper then turns to the multiple changepoint setting. Here, penalized likelihoods drive the discourse, with AIC, BIC, mBIC, and MDL penalties being considered. Binary and wild binary segmentation techniques are also compared. We introduce a new distance metric specifically designed to compare two multiple changepoint segmentations. Algorithmic and computational concerns are discussed and simulations are provided to support all conclusions. In the end, the multiple changepoint setting admits no clear methodological winner, performance depending on the particular scenario. Nonetheless, some practical guidance will emerge.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

The Local Partial Autocorrelation Function and Some Applications

The classical regular and partial autocorrelation functions are powerful tools for stationary time series modelling and analysis. However, it is increasingly recognized that many time series are not stationary and the use of classical global autocorrelations can give misleading answers. This article introduces two estimators of the local partial autocorrelation function and establishes their asymptotic properties. The article then illustrates the use of these new estimators on both simulated and real time series. The examples clearly demonstrate the strong practical benefits of local estimators for time series that exhibit nonstationarities.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

High-Dimensional Changepoint Detection via a Geometrically Inspired Mapping

High-dimensional changepoint analysis is a growing area of research and has applications in a wide range of fields. The aim is to accurately and efficiently detect changepoints in time series data when both the number of time points and dimensions grow large. Existing methods typically aggregate or project the data to a smaller number of dimensions; usually one. We present a high-dimensional changepoint detection method that takes inspiration from geometry to map a high-dimensional time series to two dimensions. We show theoretically and through simulation that if the input series is Gaussian then the mappings preserve the Gaussianity of the data. Applying univariate changepoint detection methods to both mapped series allows the detection of changepoints that correspond to changes in the mean and variance of the original time series. We demonstrate that this approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art multivariate changepoint methods in terms of accuracy of detected changepoints and computational efficiency. We conclude with applications from genetics and finance.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

A Bayesian binary algorithm for RMS-based acoustic signal segmentation

Changepoint analysis (also known as segmentation analysis) aims at analyzing an ordered, one-dimensional vector, in order to find locations where some characteristic of the data changes. Many models and algorithms have been studied under this theme, including models for changes in mean and / or variance, changes in linear regression parameters, etc. In this work, we are interested in an algorithm for the segmentation of long duration acoustic signals; the segmentation is based on the change of the RMS power of the signal. We investigate a Bayesian model with two possible parameterizations, and propose a binary algorithm in two versions, using non-informative or informative priors. We apply our algorithm to the segmentation of annotated acoustic signals from the Alcatrazes marine preservation park in Brazil.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Virtual Machine Warmup Blows Hot and Cold

Virtual Machines (VMs) with Just-In-Time (JIT) compilers are traditionally thought to execute programs in two phases: the initial warmup phase determines which parts of a program would most benefit from dynamic compilation, before JIT compiling those parts into machine code; subsequently the program is said to be at a steady state of peak performance. Measurement methodologies almost always discard data collected during the warmup phase such that reported measurements focus entirely on peak performance. We introduce a fully automated statistical approach, based on changepoint analysis, which allows us to determine if a program has reached a steady state and, if so, whether that represents peak performance or not. Using this, we show that even when run in the most controlled of circumstances, small, deterministic, widely studied microbenchmarks often fail to reach a steady state of peak performance on a variety of common VMs. Repeating our experiment on 3 different machines, we found that at most 43.5% of pairs consistently reach a steady state of peak performance.

cs.PL↗