arXiv subjects

Rebecca Willett

Publications and source records attributed to Rebecca Willett.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Localizing Changes in High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Processes

Autoregressive models capture stochastic processes in which past realizations determine the generative distribution of new data; they arise naturally in a variety of industrial, biomedical, and financial settings. A key challenge when working with such data is to determine when the underlying generative model has changed, as this can offer insights into distinct operating regimes of the underlying system. This paper describes a novel dynamic programming approach to localizing changes in high-dimensional autoregressive processes and associated error rates that improve upon the prior state of the art. When the model parameters are piecewise constant over time and the corresponding process is piecewise stable, the proposed dynamic programming algorithm consistently localizes change points even as the dimensionality, the sparsity of the coefficient matrices, the temporal spacing between two consecutive change points, and the magnitude of the difference of two consecutive coefficient matrices are allowed to vary with the sample size. Furthermore, the accuracy of initial, coarse change point localization estimates can be boosted via a computationally-efficient refinement algorithm that provably improves the localization error rate. Finally, a comprehensive simulation experiments and a real data analysis are provided to show the numerical superiority of our proposed methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Detecting Abrupt Changes in High-Dimensional Self-Exciting Poisson Processes

High-dimensional self-exciting point processes have been widely used in many application areas to model discrete event data in which past and current events affect the likelihood of future events. In this paper, we are concerned with detecting abrupt changes of the coefficient matrices in discrete-time high-dimensional self-exciting Poisson processes, which have yet to be studied in the existing literature due to both theoretical and computational challenges rooted in the non-stationary and high-dimensional nature of the underlying process. We propose a penalized dynamic programming approach which is supported by a theoretical rate analysis and numerical evidence.

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arXiv2020

Deep Learning Techniques for Inverse Problems in Imaging

Recent work in machine learning shows that deep neural networks can be used to solve a wide variety of inverse problems arising in computational imaging. We explore the central prevailing themes of this emerging area and present a taxonomy that can be used to categorize different problems and reconstruction methods. Our taxonomy is organized along two central axes: (1) whether or not a forward model is known and to what extent it is used in training and testing, and (2) whether or not the learning is supervised or unsupervised, i.e., whether or not the training relies on access to matched ground truth image and measurement pairs. We also discuss the trade-offs associated with these different reconstruction approaches, caveats and common failure modes, plus open problems and avenues for future work.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2020

Detection and Description of Change in Visual Streams

This paper presents a framework for the analysis of changes in visual streams: ordered sequences of images, possibly separated by significant time gaps. We propose a new approach to incorporating unlabeled data into training to generate natural language descriptions of change. We also develop a framework for estimating the time of change in visual stream. We use learned representations for change evidence and consistency of perceived change, and combine these in a regularized graph cut based change detector. Experimental evaluation on visual stream datasets, which we release as part of our contribution, shows that representation learning driven by natural language descriptions significantly improves change detection accuracy, compared to methods that do not rely on language.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Context-dependent self-exciting point processes: models, methods, and risk bounds in high dimensions

High-dimensional autoregressive point processes model how current events trigger or inhibit future events, such as activity by one member of a social network can affect the future activity of his or her neighbors. While past work has focused on estimating the underlying network structure based solely on the times at which events occur on each node of the network, this paper examines the more nuanced problem of estimating context-dependent networks that reflect how features associated with an event (such as the content of a social media post) modulate the strength of influences among nodes. Specifically, we leverage ideas from compositional time series and regularization methods in machine learning to conduct network estimation for high-dimensional marked point processes. Two models and corresponding estimators are considered in detail: an autoregressive multinomial model suited to categorical marks and a logistic-normal model suited to marks with mixed membership in different categories. Importantly, the logistic-normal model leads to a convex negative log-likelihood objective and captures dependence across categories. We provide theoretical guarantees for both estimators, which we validate by simulations and a synthetic data-generating model. We further validate our methods through two real data examples and demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches.

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arXiv2019

Graph-based regularization for regression problems with alignment and highly-correlated designs

Sparse models for high-dimensional linear regression and machine learning have received substantial attention over the past two decades. Model selection, or determining which features or covariates are the best explanatory variables, is critical to the interpretability of a learned model. Much of the current literature assumes that covariates are only mildly correlated. However, in many modern applications covariates are highly correlated and do not exhibit key properties (such as the restricted eigenvalue condition, restricted isometry property, or other related assumptions). This work considers a high-dimensional regression setting in which a graph governs both correlations among the covariates and the similarity among regression coefficients -- meaning there is \emph{alignment} between the covariates and regression coefficients. Using side information about the strength of correlations among features, we form a graph with edge weights corresponding to pairwise covariances. This graph is used to define a graph total variation regularizer that promotes similar weights for correlated features. This work shows how the proposed graph-based regularization yields mean-squared error guarantees for a broad range of covariance graph structures. These guarantees are optimal for many specific covariance graphs, including block and lattice graphs. Our proposed approach outperforms other methods for highly-correlated design in a variety of experiments on synthetic data and real biochemistry data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

A Function Space View of Bounded Norm Infinite Width ReLU Nets: The Multivariate Case

A key element of understanding the efficacy of overparameterized neural networks is characterizing how they represent functions as the number of weights in the network approaches infinity. In this paper, we characterize the norm required to realize a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ as a single hidden-layer ReLU network with an unbounded number of units (infinite width), but where the Euclidean norm of the weights is bounded, including precisely characterizing which functions can be realized with finite norm. This was settled for univariate univariate functions in Savarese et al. (2019), where it was shown that the required norm is determined by the L1-norm of the second derivative of the function. We extend the characterization to multivariate functions (i.e., networks with d input units), relating the required norm to the L1-norm of the Radon transform of a (d+1)/2-power Laplacian of the function. This characterization allows us to show that all functions in Sobolev spaces $W^{s,1}(\mathbb{R})$, $s\geq d+1$, can be represented with bounded norm, to calculate the required norm for several specific functions, and to obtain a depth separation result. These results have important implications for understanding generalization performance and the distinction between neural networks and more traditional kernel learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Bilinear Bandits with Low-rank Structure

We introduce the bilinear bandit problem with low-rank structure in which an action takes the form of a pair of arms from two different entity types, and the reward is a bilinear function of the known feature vectors of the arms. The unknown in the problem is a $d_1$ by $d_2$ matrix $\mathbfΘ^*$ that defines the reward, and has low rank $r \ll \min\{d_1,d_2\}$. Determination of $\mathbfΘ^*$ with this low-rank structure poses a significant challenge in finding the right exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In this work, we propose a new two-stage algorithm called "Explore-Subspace-Then-Refine" (ESTR). The first stage is an explicit subspace exploration, while the second stage is a linear bandit algorithm called "almost-low-dimensional OFUL" (LowOFUL) that exploits and further refines the estimated subspace via a regularization technique. We show that the regret of ESTR is $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((d_1+d_2)^{3/2} \sqrt{r T})$ where $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}$ hides logarithmic factors and $T$ is the time horizon, which improves upon the regret of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d_1d_2\sqrt{T})$ attained for a naïve linear bandit reduction. We conjecture that the regret bound of ESTR is unimprovable up to polylogarithmic factors, and our preliminary experiment shows that ESTR outperforms a naïve linear bandit reduction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Neumann Networks for Inverse Problems in Imaging

Many challenging image processing tasks can be described by an ill-posed linear inverse problem: deblurring, deconvolution, inpainting, compressed sensing, and superresolution all lie in this framework. Traditional inverse problem solvers minimize a cost function consisting of a data-fit term, which measures how well an image matches the observations, and a regularizer, which reflects prior knowledge and promotes images with desirable properties like smoothness. Recent advances in machine learning and image processing have illustrated that it is often possible to learn a regularizer from training data that can outperform more traditional regularizers. We present an end-to-end, data-driven method of solving inverse problems inspired by the Neumann series, which we call a Neumann network. Rather than unroll an iterative optimization algorithm, we truncate a Neumann series which directly solves the linear inverse problem with a data-driven nonlinear regularizer. The Neumann network architecture outperforms traditional inverse problem solution methods, model-free deep learning approaches, and state-of-the-art unrolled iterative methods on standard datasets. Finally, when the images belong to a union of subspaces and under appropriate assumptions on the forward model, we prove there exists a Neumann network configuration that well-approximates the optimal oracle estimator for the inverse problem and demonstrate empirically that the trained Neumann network has the form predicted by theory.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

Estimating Network Structure from Incomplete Event Data

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical systems corresponding to criminal activity, responses of patients to different medical treatment plans, opinion dynamics across social networks, epidemic spread, and more. Past work examines this problem under the assumption that the event data is complete, but in many cases only a fraction of events are observed. Incomplete observations pose a significant challenge in this setting because the unobserved events still govern the underlying dynamical system. In this work, we develop a novel approach to estimating the parameters of a BAR process in the presence of unobserved events via an unbiased estimator of the complete data log-likelihood function. We propose a computationally efficient estimation algorithm which approximates this estimator via Taylor series truncation and establish theoretical results for both the statistical error and optimization error of our algorithm. We further justify our approach by testing our method on both simulated data and a real data set consisting of crimes recorded by the city of Chicago.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Missing Data in Sparse Transition Matrix Estimation for Sub-Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Processes

High-dimensional time series data exist in numerous areas such as finance, genomics, healthcare, and neuroscience. An unavoidable aspect of all such datasets is missing data, and dealing with this issue has been an important focus in statistics, control, and machine learning. In this work, we consider a high-dimensional estimation problem where a dynamical system, governed by a stable vector autoregressive model, is randomly and only partially observed at each time point. Our task amounts to estimating the transition matrix, which is assumed to be sparse. In such a scenario, where covariates are highly interdependent and partially missing, new theoretical challenges arise. While transition matrix estimation in vector autoregressive models has been studied previously, the missing data scenario requires separate efforts. Moreover, while transition matrix estimation can be studied from a high-dimensional sparse linear regression perspective, the covariates are highly dependent and existing results on regularized estimation with missing data from i.i.d.~covariates are not applicable. At the heart of our analysis lies 1) a novel concentration result when the innovation noise satisfies the convex concentration property, as well as 2) a new quantity for characterizing the interactions of the time-varying observation process with the underlying dynamical system.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

A data-dependent weighted LASSO under Poisson noise

Sparse linear inverse problems appear in a variety of settings, but often the noise contaminating observations cannot accurately be described as bounded by or arising from a Gaussian distribution. Poisson observations in particular are a feature of several real-world applications. Previous work on sparse Poisson inverse problems encountered several limiting technical hurdles. This paper describes a novel alternative analysis approach for sparse Poisson inverse problems that (a) sidesteps the technical challenges in previous work, (b) admits estimators that can readily be computed using off-the-shelf LASSO algorithms, and (c) hints at a general framework for broad classes of noise in sparse linear inverse problems. At the heart of this new approach lies a weighted LASSO estimator for which data-dependent weights are based on Poisson concentration inequalities. Unlike previous analyses of the weighted LASSO, the proposed analysis depends on conditions which can be checked or shown to hold in general settings with high probability.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Network Estimation from Point Process Data

Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network, and a variety of other settings. Data of this form may be modeled as self-exciting point processes, in which the likelihood of future events depends on the past events. This paper addresses the problem of estimating self-excitation parameters and inferring the underlying functional network structure from self-exciting point process data. Past work in this area was limited by strong assumptions which are addressed by the novel approach here. Specifically, in this paper we (1) incorporate saturation in a point process model which both ensures stability and models non-linear thresholding effects; (2) impose general low-dimensional structural assumptions that include sparsity, group sparsity and low-rankness that allows bounds to be developed in the high-dimensional setting; and (3) incorporate long-range memory effects through moving average and higher-order auto-regressive components. Using our general framework, we provide a number of novel theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional self-exciting point processes that reflect the role played by the underlying network structure and long-term memory. We also provide simulations and real data examples to support our methodology and main results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Subspace Clustering with Missing and Corrupted Data

Given full or partial information about a collection of points that lie close to a union of several subspaces, subspace clustering refers to the process of clustering the points according to their subspace and identifying the subspaces. One popular approach, sparse subspace clustering (SSC), represents each sample as a weighted combination of the other samples, with weights of minimal $\ell_1$ norm, and then uses those learned weights to cluster the samples. SSC is stable in settings where each sample is contaminated by a relatively small amount of noise. However, when there is a significant amount of additive noise, or a considerable number of entries are missing, theoretical guarantees are scarce. In this paper, we study a robust variant of SSC and establish clustering guarantees in the presence of corrupted or missing data. We give explicit bounds on amount of noise and missing data that the algorithm can tolerate, both in deterministic settings and in a random generative model. Notably, our approach provides guarantees for higher tolerance to noise and missing data than existing analyses for this method. By design, the results hold even when we do not know the locations of the missing data; e.g., as in presence-only data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Online Learning for Changing Environments using Coin Betting

A key challenge in online learning is that classical algorithms can be slow to adapt to changing environments. Recent studies have proposed "meta" algorithms that convert any online learning algorithm to one that is adaptive to changing environments, where the adaptivity is analyzed in a quantity called the strongly-adaptive regret. This paper describes a new meta algorithm that has a strongly-adaptive regret bound that is a factor of $\sqrt{\log(T)}$ better than other algorithms with the same time complexity, where $T$ is the time horizon. We also extend our algorithm to achieve a first-order (i.e., dependent on the observed losses) strongly-adaptive regret bound for the first time, to our knowledge. At its heart is a new parameter-free algorithm for the learning with expert advice (LEA) problem in which experts sometimes do not output advice for consecutive time steps (i.e., \emph{sleeping} experts). This algorithm is derived by a reduction from optimal algorithms for the so-called coin betting problem. Empirical results show that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both learning with expert advice and metric learning scenarios.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Scalable Generalized Linear Bandits: Online Computation and Hashing

Generalized Linear Bandits (GLBs), a natural extension of the stochastic linear bandits, has been popular and successful in recent years. However, existing GLBs scale poorly with the number of rounds and the number of arms, limiting their utility in practice. This paper proposes new, scalable solutions to the GLB problem in two respects. First, unlike existing GLBs, whose per-time-step space and time complexity grow at least linearly with time $t$, we propose a new algorithm that performs online computations to enjoy a constant space and time complexity. At its heart is a novel Generalized Linear extension of the Online-to-confidence-set Conversion (GLOC method) that takes \emph{any} online learning algorithm and turns it into a GLB algorithm. As a special case, we apply GLOC to the online Newton step algorithm, which results in a low-regret GLB algorithm with much lower time and memory complexity than prior work. Second, for the case where the number $N$ of arms is very large, we propose new algorithms in which each next arm is selected via an inner product search. Such methods can be implemented via hashing algorithms (i.e., "hash-amenable") and result in a time complexity sublinear in $N$. While a Thompson sampling extension of GLOC is hash-amenable, its regret bound for $d$-dimensional arm sets scales with $d^{3/2}$, whereas GLOC's regret bound scales with $d$. Towards closing this gap, we propose a new hash-amenable algorithm whose regret bound scales with $d^{5/4}$. Finally, we propose a fast approximate hash-key computation (inner product) with a better accuracy than the state-of-the-art, which can be of independent interest. We conclude the paper with preliminary experimental results confirming the merits of our methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Improved Strongly Adaptive Online Learning using Coin Betting

This paper describes a new parameter-free online learning algorithm for changing environments. In comparing against algorithms with the same time complexity as ours, we obtain a strongly adaptive regret bound that is a factor of at least $\sqrt{\log(T)}$ better, where $T$ is the time horizon. Empirical results show that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in learning with expert advice and metric learning scenarios.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Inference of High-dimensional Autoregressive Generalized Linear Models

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector could correspond to a different node in a network, and the parameters of an autoregressive model would correspond to the impact of the network structure on the time series evolution. Often these models are used successfully in practice to learn the structure of social, epidemiological, financial, or biological neural networks. However, little is known about statistical guarantees on estimates of such models in non-Gaussian settings. This paper addresses the inference of the autoregressive parameters and associated network structure within a generalized linear model framework that includes Poisson and Bernoulli autoregressive processes. At the heart of this analysis is a sparsity-regularized maximum likelihood estimator. While sparsity-regularization is well-studied in the statistics and machine learning communities, those analysis methods cannot be applied to autoregressive generalized linear models because of the correlations and potential heteroscedasticity inherent in the observations. Sample complexity bounds are derived using a combination of martingale concentration inequalities and modern empirical process techniques for dependent random variables. These bounds, which are supported by several simulation studies, characterize the impact of various network parameters on estimator performance.

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