arXiv subjects

Reed Essick

Publications and source records attributed to Reed Essick.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Semianalytic Sensitivity Estimates for Catalogs of Gravitational-Wave Transients

I investigate the sensitivity of gravitational-wave searches by analyzing the response of matched filters in stationary Gaussian noise. In particular, I focus on the ability to analytically model the distribution of observed filter responses maximized over coalescence phase and/or a template bank as well as the response of statistics defined for a network of detectors. Semianalytic sensitivity estimates derived assuming stationary Gaussian noise are compared to sensitivity estimates obtained from real searches processing real noise, which is neither perfectly stationary nor perfectly Gaussian. I find that semianalytic estimates are able to reproduce real search sensitivity for the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration's third observing run with high fidelity. I also discuss how to select computational speed-ups (hopeless signal-to-noise ratio cuts) and make predictions for the fourth observing run using projected detector sensitivities.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Phase Transition Phenomenology with Nonparametric Representations of the Neutron Star Equation of State

Astrophysical observations of neutron stars probe the structure of dense nuclear matter and have the potential to reveal phase transitions at high densities. Most recent analyses are based on parametrized models of the equation of state with a finite number of parameters and occasionally include extra parameters intended to capture phase transition phenomenology. However, such models restrict the types of behavior allowed and may not match the true equation of state. We introduce a complementary approach that extracts phase transitions directly from the equation of state without relying on, and thus being restricted by, an underlying parametrization. We then constrain the presence of phase transitions in neutron stars with astrophysical data. Current pulsar mass, tidal deformability, and mass-radius measurements disfavor only the strongest of possible phase transitions (latent energy per particle $\gtrsim 100\,\mathrm{MeV}$). Weaker phase transitions are consistent with observations. We further investigate the prospects for measuring phase transitions with future gravitational-wave observations and find that catalogs of \result{$O(100)$} events will (at best) yield Bayes factors of $\sim 10:1$ in favor of phase transitions even when the true equation of state contains very strong phase transitions. Our results reinforce the idea that neutron star observations will primarily constrain trends in macroscopic properties rather than detailed microscopic behavior. Fine-tuned equation of state models will likely remain unconstrained in the near future.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Orbital Decay of Hot Jupiters due to Weakly Nonlinear Tidal Dissipation

We study tidal dissipation in hot Jupiter host stars due to the nonlinear damping of tidally driven $g$-modes, extending the calculations of Essick & Weinberg (2016) to a wide variety of non-solar type hosts. This process causes the planet's orbit to decay and has potentially important consequences for the evolution and fate of hot Jupiters. Previous studies either only accounted for linear dissipation processes or assumed that the resonantly excited primary mode becomes strongly nonlinear and breaks as it approaches the stellar center. However, the great majority of hot Jupiter systems are in the weakly nonlinear regime in which the primary mode does not break but instead excites a sea of secondary modes via three-mode interactions. We simulate these nonlinear interactions and calculate the net mode dissipation for stars that range in mass from $0.5 M_\odot \le M_\star \le 2.0 M_\odot$ and in age from the early main sequence to the subgiant phase. For stars with $M_\star \lesssim 1.0 M_\odot$ of nearly any age, we find that the orbital decay time is $\lesssim 100 \textrm{ Myr}$ for orbital periods $P_{\rm orb} \lesssim 1 \textrm{ day}$. For $M_\star \gtrsim 1.2 M_\odot$, the orbital decay time only becomes short on the subgiant branch, where it can be $\lesssim 10 \textrm{ Myr}$ for $P_{\rm orb} \lesssim 2 \textrm{ days}$ and result in significant transit time shifts. We discuss these results in the context of known hot Jupiter systems and examine the prospects for detecting their orbital decay with transit timing measurements.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

QoQ: a Q-transform based test for Gravitational Wave transient events

The observation of transient gravitational waves is hindered by the presence of transient noise, colloquially referred to as glitches. These glitches can often be misidentified as gravitational waves by searches for unmodeled transients using the excess-power type of methods and sometimes even excite template waveforms for compact binary coalescences while using matched filter techniques. They thus create a significant background in the searches. This background is more critical in getting identified promptly and efficiently within the context of real-time searches for gravitational-wave transients. Such searches are the ones that have enabled multi-messenger astrophysics with the start of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data taking in 2015 and they will continue to enable the field for further discoveries. With this work we propose and demonstrate the use of a signal-based test that quantifies the fidelity of the time-frequency decomposition of the putative signal based on first principles on how astrophysical transients are expected to be registered in the detectors and empirically measuring the instrumental noise. It is based on the Q-transform and a measure of the occupancy of the corresponding time-frequency pixels over select time-frequency volumes; we call it ``QoQ''. Our method shows a 40% reduction in the number of retraction of public alerts that were issued by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaborations during the third observing run with negligible loss in sensitivity. Receiver Operator Characteristic measurements suggest the method can be used in online and offline searches for transients, reducing their background significantly.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Bridging the Gap: Categorizing Gravitational-Wave Events at the Transition Between Neutron Stars and Black Holes

We search for features in the mass distribution of detected compact binary coalescences which signify the transition between neutron stars and black holes. We analyze all gravitational wave detections by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA made through the end of the first half of the third observing run, and find clear evidence for two different populations of compact objects based solely on gravitational wave data. We confidently (99.3%) find a steepening relative to a single power law describing neutron stars and low-mass black holes below $2.4^{+0.5}_{-0.5}\text{ M}_{\odot}$, which is consistent with many predictions for the maximum neutron star mass. We find suggestions of the purported lower mass gap between the most massive neutron stars and the least massive black holes, but are unable to conclusively resolve it with current data. If it exists, we find the lower mass gap's edges to lie at $2.2^{+0.7}_{-0.5}\text{ M}_{\odot}$ and $6.0^{+2.4}_{-1.4}\text{ M}_{\odot}$. We re-examine events that have been deemed "exceptional" by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaborations in the context of these features. We analyze GW190814 self-consistently in the context of the full population of compact binaries, finding support for its secondary to be either a neutron star or a lower mass gap object, consistent with previous claims. Our models are the first to accommodate this event, which is an outlier with respect to the binary black hole population. We find that GW200105 and GW200115 probe the edges of, and may have components within, the lower mass gap. As future data improve global population models, the classification of these events will also improve.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

An Isotropy Measurement with Gravitational Wave Observations

We constrain the distribution of merging compact binaries across the celestial sphere using the GWTC-3 catalog from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaborations' (LVK) third observing run. With 63 confident detections from O3, we constrain the relative variability (standard deviation) of the rate density across the sky to be $\lesssim 16\%$ at 90\% confidence assuming the logarithm of the rate density is described by a Gaussian random field with correlation length $\geq 10^\circ$. This tightens to $\lesssim 3.5\%$ when the correlation length is $\geq 20^\circ$. While the new O3 data provides the tightest constraints on anisotropies available to-date, we do not find overwhelming evidence in favor of isotropy, either. A simple counting experiment favors an isotropic distribution by a factor of $\mathcal{B}^\mathrm{iso}_\mathrm{ani} = 3.7$, which is nonetheless an improvement of more than a factor of two compared to analogous analyses based on only the first and second observing runs of the LVK.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Precision Requirements for Monte Carlo Sums within Hierarchical Bayesian Inference

Hierarchical Bayesian inference is often conducted with estimates of the target distribution derived from Monte Carlo sums over samples from separate analyses of parts of the hierarchy or from mock observations used to estimate sensitivity to a target population. We investigate requirements on the number of Monte Carlo samples needed to guarantee the estimator of the target distribution is precise enough that it does not affect the inference. We consider probabilistic models of how Monte Carlo samples are generated, showing that the finite number of samples introduces additional uncertainty as they act as an imperfect encoding of the components of the hierarchical likelihood. Additionally, we investigate the behavior of estimators marginalized over approximate measures of the uncertainty, comparing their performance to the Monte Carlo point estimate. We find that correlations between the estimators at nearby points in parameter space are crucial to the precision of the estimate. Approximate marginalization that neglects these correlations will either introduce a bias within the inference or be more expensive (require more Monte Carlo samples) than an inference constructed with point estimates. We therefore recommend that hierarchical inferences with empirically estimated target distributions use point estimates.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Implicit correlations within phenomenological parametric models of the neutron star equation of state

The rapid increase in the number and precision of astrophysical probes of neutron stars in recent years allows for the inference of their equation of state. Observations target different macroscopic properties of neutron stars which vary from star to star, such as mass and radius, but the equation of state allows for a common description of all neutron stars. To connect these observations and infer the properties of dense matter and neutron stars simultaneously, models for the equation of state are introduced. Parametric models rely on carefully engineered functional forms that reproduce a large array of realistic equations of state. Such models benefit from their simplicity but are limited because any finite-parameter model cannot accurately approximate all possible equations of state. Nonparametric models overcome this by increasing model freedom at the cost of increased complexity. In this study, we compare common parametric and nonparametric models, quantify the limitations of the former, and study the impact of modeling on our current understanding of high-density physics. We show that parametric models impose strongly model-dependent, and sometimes opaque, correlations between density scales. Such interdensity correlations result in tighter constraints that are unsupported by data and can lead to biased inference of the equation of state and of individual neutron star properties.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Calibration Uncertainty's Impact on Gravitational-Wave Observations

Our ability to calibrate current kilometer-scale interferometers can potentially confound the inference of astrophysical signals. Current calibration uncertainties are well described by a Gaussian process. I exploit this description to analytically examine the impact of calibration uncertainty. I derive closed-form expressions for the conditioned likelihood of the calibration error given the observed data and an astrophysical signal (astrophysical calibration) as well as for the marginal likelihood for the data given a signal (integrated over the calibration uncertainty). I show that calibration uncertainty always reduces search sensitivity and the amount of information available about astrophysical signals. Additionally, calibration uncertainty will fundamentally limit the precision to which loud signals can be constrained, a crucial factor when considering the scientific potential of proposed third-generation interferometers. For example, I estimate that with $1\%$ uncertainty in the detector response's amplitude and phase, one will only be able to measure the leading-order tidal parameter ($\tildeΛ$) for a 1.4+1.4$\,M_\odot$ system to better than $\pm 1$ ($\sim 0.2\%$ relative uncertainty) for signals with signal-to-noise ratios $\gtrsim 10^4$. At this signal-to-noise ratio, calibration uncertainty increases $σ_{\tildeΛ}$ by a factor of $2$ compared to stationary Gaussian noise alone. Furthermore, 1\% calibration uncertainty limits the precision to always be $σ_{\tildeΛ} \gtrsim 0.5$. I also show how to best select the frequencies at which calibration should be precisely constrained in order to minimize the information lost about astrophysical parameters. It is not necessary to constrain the calibration errors to be small at all frequencies to perform precise astrophysical inference for individual signals.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

A Detailed Examination of Astrophysical Constraints on the Symmetry Energy and the Neutron Skin of $^{208}$Pb with Minimal Modeling Assumptions

The symmetry energy and its density dependence are pivotal for many nuclear physics and astrophysics applications, as they determine properties ranging from the neutron-skin thickness of nuclei to the crust thickness and the radius of neutron stars. Recently, PREX-II reported a value of $0.283\pm0.071$ fm for the neutron-skin thickness of $^{208}$Pb, $R_{\rm skin}^{^{208}\text{Pb}}$, implying a symmetry-energy slope parameter $L$ of $106\pm37$ MeV, larger than most ranges obtained from microscopic calculations and other nuclear experiments. We use a nonparametric equation of state representation based on Gaussian processes to constrain the symmetry energy $S_0$, $L$, and $R_{\rm skin}^{^{208}\text{Pb}}$ directly from observations of neutron stars with minimal modeling assumptions. The resulting astrophysical constraints from heavy pulsar masses, LIGO/Virgo, and NICER favor smaller values of the neutron skin and $L$, as well as negative symmetry incompressibilities. Combining astrophysical data with chiral effective field theory ($χ$EFT) and PREX-II constraints yields $S_0 = 33.0^{+2.0}_{-1.8}$ MeV, $L=53^{+14}_{-15}$ MeV, and $R_{\rm skin}^{^{208}\text{Pb}} = 0.17^{+0.04}_{-0.04}$ fm. We also examine the consistency of several individual $χ$EFT calculations with astrophysical observations and terrestrial experiments. We find that there is only mild tension between $χ$EFT, astrophysical data, and PREX-II's $R_\mathrm{skin}^{^{208}\mathrm{Pb}}$ measurement ($p$-value $= 12.3\%$) and that there is excellent agreement between $χ$EFT, astrophysical data, and other nuclear experiments.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2021

Selection Effects in Periodic X-ray Data from Maximizing Detection Statistics

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) records data of exceptional quality on the energy-dependent X-ray pulse profile of pulsars. However, in searching for evidence of pulsations, Guillot et al. (2019) introduce a procedure to select an ordered subset of the data that maximizes a detection statistic (the H-test). I show that this procedure can degrade subsequent analyses using an idealized model with a stationary expected count rates from both noise and signal. Specifically, the data-selection procedure biases the inferred mean count rate to be too low, biases the inferred pulsation amplitude to be too high, and that the size of these biases scales strongly with the amount of data that is rejected and the true signal amplitude. The procedure also alters the null-distribution of the H-test rendering nominal detection significance estimates overly optimistic. While the idealized model does not capture all the complexities of real NICER data, it suggests that these biases could be important for NICER's observations of J0740+6620 and other faint pulsars (observations of J0030+0451 are likely less affected). I estimate that these selection effects may introduce a bias of $\mathcal{O}(10\%)$ on average in the inferred modulation depth of lightcurves like J0740+6620's, and may be as large as $\mathcal{O}(50\%)$ for fainter pulsars. However, the change for a single dataset like J0740+6620 is expected to be a shift between $-5\%$ and $+20\%$. This could imply that the lower limit on J0740+6620's radius is slightly larger than it should be, although preliminary investigations suggest the change in the radius constraints are $\mathcal{O}(1\%)$ with real J0740+6620 data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Astrophysical Constraints on the Symmetry Energy and the Neutron Skin of $^{208}$Pb with Minimal Modeling Assumptions

The symmetry energy and its density dependence are crucial inputs for many nuclear physics and astrophysics applications, as they determine properties ranging from the neutron-skin thickness of nuclei to the crust thickness and the radius of neutron stars. Recently, PREX-II reported a value of $0.283 \pm 0.071$ fm for the neutron-skin thickness of $^{208}$Pb, implying a slope parameter $L = 106 \pm 37$ MeV, larger than most ranges obtained from microscopic calculations and other nuclear experiments. We use a nonparametric equation of state representation based on Gaussian processes to constrain the symmetry energy $S_0$, $L$, and $R_\mathrm{skin}^{^{208}\mathrm{Pb}}$ directly from observations of neutron stars with minimal modeling assumptions. The resulting astrophysical constraints from heavy pulsar masses, LIGO/Virgo, and NICER clearly favor smaller values of the neutron skin and $L$, as well as negative symmetry incompressibilities. Combining astrophysical data with PREX-II and chiral effective field theory constraints yields $S_0 = 33.0^{+2.0}_{-1.8}$ MeV, $L=53^{+14}_{-15}$ MeV, and $R_\mathrm{skin}^{^{208}\mathrm{Pb}}=0.17^{+0.04}_{-0.04}$ fm.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2021

Impact of the PSR J0740+6620 radius constraint on the properties of high-density matter

X-ray pulse profile modeling of PSR J0740+6620, the most massive known pulsar, with data from the NICER and XMM-Newton observatories recently led to a measurement of its radius. We investigate this measurement's implications for the neutron star equation of state (EoS), employing a nonparametric EoS model based on Gaussian processes and combining information from other x-ray, radio and gravitational-wave observations of neutron stars. Our analysis mildly disfavors EoSs that support a disconnected hybrid star branch in the mass-radius relation, a proxy for strong phase transitions, with a Bayes factor of $6.9$. For such EoSs, the transition mass from the hadronic to the hybrid branch is constrained to lie outside ($1,2$) $M_{\odot}$. We also find that the conformal sound-speed bound is violated inside neutron star cores, which implies that the core matter is strongly interacting. The squared sound speed reaches a maximum of $0.75^{+0.25}_{-0.24}\, c^2$ at $3.60^{+2.25}_{-1.89}$ times nuclear saturation density at 90% credibility. Since all but the gravitational-wave observations prefer a relatively stiff EoS, PSR J0740+6620's central density is only $3.57^{+1.3}_{-1.3}$ times nuclear saturation, limiting the density range probed by observations of cold, nonrotating neutron stars in $β$-equilibrium.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Probing Extremal Gravitational-Wave Events with Coarse-Grained Likelihoods

As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star-black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO--Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusions of Abbott et al, ApJL 913 L7 (2021). GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 are outliers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Predicting electromagnetic counterparts using low-latency, gravitational-wave data products

Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole - neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, the low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about the binary properties and, hence, on whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole - neutron star, a binary black hole or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to predict both the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential lightcurves for these events in order to improve follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters, by the low-latency pipelines, represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced LIGO-Virgo observing runs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

When are LIGO/Virgo's Big Black-Hole Mergers?

We study the evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) mass distribution across cosmic time. The second gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-2) from LIGO/Virgo contains BBH events out to redshifts $z \sim 1$, with component masses in the range $\sim5$--$80\,M_\odot$. In this catalog, the biggest black holes, with $m_1 \gtrsim 45\,M_\odot$, are only found at the highest redshifts, $z \gtrsim 0.4$. We ask whether the absence of high-mass BBH observations at low redshift indicates that the astrophysical BBH mass distribution evolves: the biggest BBHs only merge at high redshift, and cease merging at low redshift. Alternatively, this feature might be explained by gravitational-wave selection effects. Modeling the BBH primary mass spectrum as a power law with a sharp maximum mass cutoff (Truncated model), we find that the cutoff increases with redshift ($> 99.9\%$ credibility). An abrupt cutoff in the mass spectrum is expected from (pulsational) pair instability supernova simulations; however, GWTC-2 is only consistent with a Truncated mass model if the location of the cutoff increases from $45^{+13}_{-5}\,M_\odot$ at $z < 0.4$ to $80^{+16}_{-13}\,M_\odot$ at $z > 0.4$. Alternatively, if the primary mass spectrum has a break in the power law (Broken power law) at ${38^{+15}_{-8}\,M_\odot}$, rather than a sharp cutoff, the data are consistent with a non-evolving mass distribution. In this case, the overall rate of mergers, at all masses, increases with increasing redshift. Future observations will confidently distinguish between a sharp maximum mass cutoff that evolves with redshift and a non-evolving mass distribution with a gradual taper, such as a Broken power law. After $\sim 100$ BBH merger observations, a continued absence of high-mass, low-redshift events would provide a clear signature that the mass distribution evolves with redshift.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

A Coincidence Null Test for Poisson-Distributed Events

When transient events are observed with multiple sensors, it is often necessary to establish the significance of coincident events. We derive a universal null test for an arbitrary number of sensors motivated by the archetypal detection problem for independent Poisson-distributed events in gravitational-wave detectors such as LIGO and Virgo. In these detectors, transient events may be witnessed by myriad channels that record interferometric signals and the surrounding physical environment. We apply our null test to a broad set of simulated gravitational-wave events as well as to a real gravitational-wave detection to determine which auxiliary channels do and do not witness real gravitational waves, and therefore which are safe to use when constructing vetoes. We also describe how our approach can be used to study detector artifacts and their origin, as well as to quantify the statistical independence of candidate GW signals from noise artifacts observed in auxiliary channels.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Direct Astrophysical Tests of Chiral Effective Field Theory at Supranuclear Densities

Recent observations of neutron stars with gravitational waves and X-ray timing provide unprecedented access to the equation of state (EoS) of cold dense matter at densities difficult to realize in terrestrial experiments. At the same time, predictions for the EoS with reliable uncertainty estimates from chiral effective field theory ($χ$EFT) bound our theoretical ignorance. In this work, we analyze astrophysical data using a nonparametric representation of the neutron-star EoS conditioned on $χ$EFT to directly constrain the underlying physical properties of the compact objects. We discuss how the data alone constrain the EoS at high densities when we condition on $χ$EFT at low densities. We also demonstrate how to exploit astrophysical data to directly test the predictions of $χ$EFT for the EoS up to twice nuclear saturation density, and estimate the density at which these predictions might break down. We find that the existence of massive pulsars, gravitational waves from GW170817, and NICER observations of PSR J0030+0451 favor $χ$EFT predictions for the EoS up to nuclear saturation density over a more agnostic analysis by as much as a factor of 7 for the quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations used in this work. While $χ$EFT predictions using QMC are fully consistent with gravitational-wave data up to twice nuclear saturation density, NICER observations suggest that the EoS stiffens relative to these predictions at nuclear saturation density. Additionally, we marginalize over the uncertainty in the density at which $χ$EFT begins to break down, constraining the radius of a $1.4\,M_\odot$ neutron star to $R_{1.4}=11.40^{+1.38}_{-1.04}$ ($12.54^{+0.71}_{-0.63}$) km and the pressure at twice nuclear saturation density to $p(2n_\mathrm{sat})=14.2^{+18.1}_{-8.4}$ ($28.7^{+15.3}_{-15.0}$) MeV/fm$^3$ with massive pulsar and gravitational-wave (and NICER) data.

astro-ph.HE↗