arXiv subjects

Refk Selmi

Publications and source records attributed to Refk Selmi.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

The Changing Geopolitics in the Arab World: Implications of the 2017 Gulf Crisis for Business

The international community was caught by surprise on 5 June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of destabilizing the region. More than one year after this diplomatic rift, several questions remain unaddressed. This study focuses on the regional business costs of the year-long blockade on Qatar. We split the sample to compare the stock market performances of Qatar and its Middle Eastern neighbors before and after the Saudi-led Qatar boycott. We focus our attention on the conditional volatility process of stock market returns and risks related to financial interconnectedness. We show that the Gulf crisis had the most adverse impact on Qatar together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although not to the same degree as these three countries, Bahrain and Egypt were also harmfully affected. But shocks to the volatility process tend to have short-lasting effects. Moreover, the total volatility spillovers to and from others increase but moderately after the blockade. Overall, the quartet lobbying efforts did not achieve the intended result. Our findings underscore Qatar's economic vulnerability but also the successful resilience strategy of this tiny state. The coordinated diplomatic efforts of Qatar have been able to fight the economic and political embargo.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2018

The gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi : Saudi Arabia's new economy dream at risk ?

With the horrific Jamal Khashoggi killing, Mohammed Bin Salman's image in the international community has been damaged. This study seeks to test whether Khashoggi murder discourage businesses from investing in Saudi Arabia. We use an event-study methodology and asset pricing model to assess, at sectoral level, the dynamics of stock prices surrounding the killing of the Saudi journalist on 2 October at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. A series of robustness tests, including the Corrado ranking test and the non-parametric conditional distribution approach, have been conducted. We consistently show that the khashoggi killing had the most adverse impact on banks and financial services, materials, and technology. Oil and gas companies, however, were moderately or insignificantly affected. Overall, our results suggest that the crown prince's ambitious project for a Saudi Arabian economy moving beyond oil wealth are threatened as this recent event dampened foreign interest in investing in the kingdom.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2018

Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean

This paper provides an innovative perspective on the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven. We use a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to capture the dependence structure between gold returns and changes in uncertainty under different gold market conditions, while considering the nuances of uncertainty levels. To capture the core uncertainty effects on gold returns, a dynamic factor model is used. This technique allows summarizing the impact of six different indexes (namely economic, macroeconomic, microeconomic, monetary policy, financial and political uncertainties) within one aggregate measure of uncertainty. In doing so, we show that the gold's role as a hedge and safe haven cannot be assumed to hold at all times. This ability seems to be sensitive to the gold's various market states (bearish, normal or bullish) and to whether the uncertainty is low, middle or high. Interestingly, we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2017

Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring

If Tunisia was hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators compared to other Arab countries, the 2011 popular uprisings demonstrate the need for political reforms but also major economic reforms. The Arab spring highlights the fragility of its main economic pillars including the tourism and the foreign direct investment. In such turbulent times, the paper examines the economic impact of migrant' remittances, expected to have a countercyclical behavior. Our results reveal that prior to the Arab Spring, the impacts of remittances on growth and consumption seem negative and positive respectively, while they varyingly influence local investment. These three relationships held in the short-run. By considering the period surrounding the 2011 uprisings, the investment effect of remittances becomes negative and weak in the short-and medium-run, whereas positive and strong remittances' impacts on growth and consumption are found in the long term.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2017

Ether: Bitcoin's competitor or ally?

Although Bitcoin has long been dominant in the crypto scene, it is certainly not alone. Ether is another cryptocurrency related project that has attracted an intensive attention because of its additional features. This study seeks to test whether these cryptocurrencies differ in terms of their volatile and speculative behaviors, hedge, safe haven and risk diversification properties. Using different econometric techniques, we show that a) Bitcoin and Ether are volatile and relatively more responsive to bad news, but the volatility of Ether is more persistent than that of Bitcoin; b) for both cryptocurrencies, the exuberance and the collapse of bubbles were identified, but Bitcoin appears more speculative than Ether; c) there is negative and significant correlation between Bitcoin/Ether and other assets (S\&P500 stocks, US bonds, oil), which would indicate that digital currencies can hedge against the price movements of these assets; d) there is negative tail independence between Bitcoin/Ether and other financial assets, implying that these cryptocurrencies exhibit the function of a weak safe haven; and e) The inclusion of Bitcoin/ Ether in a portfolio improve its efficiency in terms of higher reward-to-risk ratios. But investors who hold diversified portfolios made of stocks or bonds and Ether may face losses over bearish regime. In such situation, stock and bond investors may take a short position on Bitcoin.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2017

The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources

Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental, macroeconomic, financial, speculative and technical determinants as well as the 2016 events-which drove the value of Bitcoin in times of economic and geopolitical chaos. We use a Bayesian quantile regression to inspect how the structure of dependence of Bitcoin price and its determinants varies across the entire conditional distribution of Bitcoin price movements. In doing so, three groups of determinants were derived. The use of Bitcoin in trade and the uncertainty surrounding China's deepening slowdown, Brexit and India's demonetization were found to be the most potential contributors of Bitcoin price when the market is improving. The intense anxiety over Donald Trump being the president of United States was shown to be a positive determinant pushing up the price of Bitcoin when the market is functioning around the normal mode. The velocity of bitcoins in circulation, the gold price, the Venezuelan currency demonetization and the hash rate were found to be the fundamentals influencing the Bitcoin price when the market is heading into decline.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

Are Trump and Bitcoin Good Partners?

During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on average. The Bitcoin's surge alongside the aftermath of Trump's win in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections has strengthened its status as the modern safe haven. This paper uses a truly noise-assisted data analysis method, termed as Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach, to examine whether Bitcoin can act as a hedge and safe haven for U.S. stock price index. The results document that the Bitcoin's safe-haven property is time-varying and that it has primarily been a weak safe haven in the short term and the long-term. We also demonstrate that precious metals lost their safe haven properties over time as the correlation between gold/silver and U.S. stock price declines from short-to long-run horizons.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2017

Political elections and uncertainty -Are BRICS markets equally exposed to Trump's agenda?

There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, send signals to financial markets. The present paper seeks to address whether BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stock markets equally vulnerable to Trump's plans. For this purpose, two methods were adopted. The first presents an event-study methodology based on regression estimation of abnormal returns. The second is based on vote intentions by integrating data from social media (Twitter), search queries (Google Trends) and public opinion polls. Our results robustly reveal that although some markets emerged losers, others took the opposite route. China took the biggest hit with Brazil, while the damage was much more limited for India and South Africa. These adverse responses can be explained by the Trump's neo-mercantilist attitude revolving around tearing up trade deals, instituting tariffs, and labeling China a "currency manipulator". However, Russia looks to be benefiting due to Trump's sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and expectations about the scaling down of sanctions imposed on Russia over its role in the conflict in Ukraine.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2016

The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets

There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined the association between presidential elections and stock returns, very little attention has been given to the impacts of elections and election induced uncertainty on stock markets. This paper explores, at sectoral level, the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) as a means of explaining the reaction of markets to the arrival of unanticipated information. This hypothesis postulates that political uncertainty is greater prior to the elections (relative to pre-election period) but is resolved once the outcome of the elections is determined (relative to post-election period). To this end, we adopt an event-study methodology that examines abnormal return behavior around the election date. We show that collapsing stock returns around the election result is reversed by positive abnormal return on the next day, except some cases where we note negative responses following the vote count. Although Trump's win plunges US into uncertain future, positive reactions of abnormal return are found. Therefore, our results do not support the UIH hypothesis. Besides, the effect of political uncertainty is sector-specific. While some sectors emerged winners (healthcare, oil and gas, real estate, defense, financials and consumer goods and services), others took the opposite route (technology and utilities). The winning industries are generally those that will benefit from the new administration's focus on rebuilding infrastructure, renegotiating trade agreements, reforming tax policy and labour laws, increasing defense funding, easing restrictions on energy production, and rolling back Obamacare.

q-fin.GN↗