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Reik V. Donner

Publications and source records attributed to Reik V. Donner.

51 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

CoinCalc -- A new R package for quantifying simultaneities of event series

We present the new R package CoinCalc for performing event coincidence analysis (ECA), a novel statistical method to quantify the simultaneity of events contained in two series of observations, either as simultaneous or lagged coincidences within a user-specific temporal tolerance window. The package also provides different analytical as well as surrogate-based significance tests (valid under different assumptions about the nature of the observed event series) as well as an intuitive visualization of the identified coincidences. We demonstrate the usage of CoinCalc based on two typical geoscientific example problems addressing the relationship between meteorological extremes and plant phenology as well as that between soil properties and land cover.

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Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series

Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal pre-selection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used sub-optimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

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Analyzing long-term correlated stochastic processes by means of recurrence networks: Potentials and pitfalls

Long-range correlated processes are ubiquitous, ranging from climate variables to financial time series. One paradigmatic example for such processes is fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In this work, we highlight the potentials and conceptual as well as practical limitations when applying the recently proposed recurrence network (RN) approach to fBm and related stochastic processes. In particular, we demonstrate that the results of a previous application of RN analysis to fBm (Liu \textit{et al.,} Phys. Rev. E \textbf{89}, 032814 (2014)) are mainly due to an inappropriate treatment disregarding the intrinsic non-stationarity of such processes. Complementarily, we analyze some RN properties of the closely related stationary fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) processes and find that the resulting network properties are well-defined and behave as one would expect from basic conceptual considerations. Our results demonstrate that RN analysis can indeed provide meaningful results for stationary stochastic processes, given a proper selection of its intrinsic methodological parameters, whereas it is prone to fail to uniquely retrieve RN properties for non-stationary stochastic processes like fBm.

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Disentangling different types of El Niño episodes by evolving climate network analysis

Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network approach for characterizing the evolving correlation structure of the Earth's climate system based on reanalysis data of surface air temperatures. We provide a detailed study on the temporal variability of several global climate network characteristics. Based on a simple conceptual view on red climate networks (i.e., networks with a comparably low number of edges), we give a thorough interpretation of our evolving climate network characteristics, which allows a functional discrimination between recently recognized different types of El Niño episodes. Our analysis provides deep insights into the Earth's climate system, particularly its global response to strong volcanic eruptions and large-scale impacts of different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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Testing time series irreversibility using complex network methods

The absence of time-reversal symmetry is a fundamental property of many nonlinear time series. Here, we propose a new set of statistical tests for time series irreversibility based on standard and horizontal visibility graphs. Specifically, we statistically compare the distributions of time-directed variants of the common complex network measures degree and local clustering coefficient. Our approach does not involve surrogate data and is applicable to relatively short time series. We demonstrate its performance for paradigmatic model systems with known time-reversal properties as well as for picking up signatures of nonlinearity in neuro-physiological data.

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Geometric detection of coupling directions by means of inter-system recurrence networks

We introduce a geometric method for identifying the coupling direction between two dynamical systems based on a bivariate extension of recurrence network analysis. Global characteristics of the resulting inter-system recurrence networks provide a correct discrimination for weakly coupled Rössler oscillators not yet displaying generalised synchronisation. Investigating two real-world palaeoclimate time series representing the variability of the Asian monsoon over the last 10,000 years, we observe indications for a considerable influence of the Indian summer monsoon on climate in Eastern China rather than vice versa. The proposed approach can be directly extended to studying $K>2$ coupled subsystems.

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Geometric signature of complex synchronisation scenarios

Synchronisation between coupled oscillatory systems is a common phenomenon in many natural as well as technical systems. Varying the strength of coupling often leads to qualitative changes in the complex dynamics of the mutually coupled systems including different types of synchronisation such as phase, lag, generalised, or even complete synchronisation. Here, we study the geometric signatures of coupling along with the onset of generalised synchronisation between two coupled chaotic oscillators by mapping the systems' individual as well as joint recurrences in phase space to a complex network. For a paradigmatic continuous-time model system, the transitivity properties of the resulting joint recurrence networks display distinct variations associated with changes in the structural similarity between different parts of the considered trajectories. They therefore provide a useful indicator for the emergence of generalised synchronisation. This paper is dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the introduction of recurrence plots by Eckmann et al. (Europhys. Lett. 4 (1987), 973).

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Analytical framework for recurrence-network analysis of time series

Recurrence networks are a powerful nonlinear tool for time series analysis of complex dynamical systems. {While there are already many successful applications ranging from medicine to paleoclimatology, a solid theoretical foundation of the method has still been missing so far. Here, we interpret an $\varepsilon$-recurrence network as a discrete subnetwork of a "continuous" graph with uncountably many vertices and edges corresponding to the system's attractor. This step allows us to show that various statistical measures commonly used in complex network analysis can be seen as discrete estimators of newly defined continuous measures of certain complex geometric properties of the attractor on the scale given by $\varepsilon$.} In particular, we introduce local measures such as the $\varepsilon$-clustering coefficient, mesoscopic measures such as $\varepsilon$-motif density, path-based measures such as $\varepsilon$-betweennesses, and global measures such as $\varepsilon$-efficiency. This new analytical basis for the so far heuristically motivated network measures also provides an objective criterion for the choice of $\varepsilon$ via a percolation threshold, and it shows that estimation can be improved by so-called node splitting invariant versions of the measures. We finally illustrate the framework for a number of archetypical chaotic attractors such as those of the Bernoulli and logistic maps, periodic and two-dimensional quasi-periodic motions, and for hyperballs and hypercubes, by deriving analytical expressions for the novel measures and comparing them with data from numerical experiments. More generally, the theoretical framework put forward in this work describes random geometric graphs and other networks with spatial constraints which appear frequently in disciplines ranging from biology to climate science.

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Geometric and dynamic perspectives on phase-coherent and noncoherent chaos

Statistically distinguishing between phase-coherent and noncoherent chaotic dynamics from time series is a contemporary problem in nonlinear sciences. In this work, we propose different measures based on recurrence properties of recorded trajectories, which characterize the underlying systems from both geometric and dynamic viewpoints. The potentials of the individual measures for discriminating phase-coherent and noncoherent chaotic oscillations are discussed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for the chaotic Rössler system, which displays both types of chaos as one control parameter is varied, and the Mackey-Glass system as an example of a time-delay system with noncoherent chaos. Our results demonstrate that especially geometric measures from recurrence network analysis are well suited for tracing transitions between spiral- and screw-type chaos, a common route from phase-coherent to noncoherent chaos also found in other nonlinear oscillators. A detailed explanation of the observed behavior in terms of attractor geometry is given.

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Urban road networks -- Spatial networks with universal geometric features? A case study on Germany's largest cities

Urban road networks have distinct geometric properties that are partially determined by their (quasi-) two-dimensional structure. In this work, we study these properties for 20 of the largest German cities. We find that the small-scale geometry of all examined road networks is extremely similar. The object-size distributions of road segments and the resulting cellular structures are characterised by heavy tails. As a specific feature, a large degree of rectangularity is observed in all networks, with link angle distributions approximately described by stretched exponential functions. We present a rigorous statistical analysis of the main geometric characteristics and discuss their mutual interrelationships. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of cost-efficiency constraints for in time evolution of urban road networks.

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The Geometry of Chaotic Dynamics -- A Complex Network Perspective

Recently, several complex network approaches to time series analysis have been developed and applied to study a wide range of model systems as well as real-world data, e.g., geophysical or financial time series. Among these techniques, recurrence-based concepts and prominently $ε$-recurrence networks, most faithfully represent the geometrical fine structure of the attractors underlying chaotic (and less interestingly non-chaotic) time series. In this paper we demonstrate that the well known graph theoretical properties local clustering coefficient and global (network) transitivity can meaningfully be exploited to define two new local and two new global measures of dimension in phase space: local upper and lower clustering dimension as well as global upper and lower transitivity dimension. Rigorous analytical as well as numerical results for self-similar sets and simple chaotic model systems suggest that these measures are well-behaved in most non-pathological situations and that they can be estimated reasonably well using $ε$-recurrence networks constructed from relatively short time series. Moreover, we study the relationship between clustering and transitivity dimensions on the one hand, and traditional measures like pointwise dimension or local Lyapunov dimension on the other hand. We also provide further evidence that the local clustering coefficients, or equivalently the local clustering dimensions, are useful for identifying unstable periodic orbits and other dynamically invariant objects from time series. Our results demonstrate that $ε$-recurrence networks exhibit an important link between dynamical systems and graph theory.

nlin.CD↗

Identifying complex periodic windows in continuous-time dynamical systems using recurrence-based methods

The identification of complex periodic windows in the two-dimensional parameter space of certain dynamical systems has recently attracted considerable interest. While for discrete systems, a discrimination between periodic and chaotic windows can be easily made based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the system, this remains a challenging task for continuous systems, especially if only short time series are available (e.g., in case of experimental data). In this work, we demonstrate that nonlinear measures based on recurrence plots obtained from such trajectories provide a practicable alternative for numerically detecting shrimps. Traditional diagonal line-based measures of recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) as well as measures from complex network theory are shown to allow an excellent classification of periodic and chaotic behavior in parameter space. Using the well-studied Rössler system as a benchmark example, we find that the average path length and the clustering coefficient of the resulting recurrence networks (RNs) are particularly powerful discriminatory statistics for the identification of complex periodic windows.

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Recurrence-based time series analysis by means of complex network methods

Complex networks are an important paradigm of modern complex systems sciences which allows quantitatively assessing the structural properties of systems composed of different interacting entities. During the last years, intensive efforts have been spent on applying network-based concepts also for the analysis of dynamically relevant higher-order statistical properties of time series. Notably, many corresponding approaches are closely related with the concept of recurrence in phase space. In this paper, we review recent methodological advances in time series analysis based on complex networks, with a special emphasis on methods founded on recurrence plots. The potentials and limitations of the individual methods are discussed and illustrated for paradigmatic examples of dynamical systems as well as for real-world time series. Complex network measures are shown to provide information about structural features of dynamical systems that are complementary to those characterized by other methods of time series analysis and, hence, substantially enrich the knowledge gathered from other existing (linear as well as nonlinear) approaches.

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Ambiguities in recurrence-based complex network representations of time series

Recently, different approaches have been proposed for studying basic properties of time series from a complex network perspective. In this work, the corresponding potentials and limitations of networks based on recurrences in phase space are investigated in some detail. We discuss the main requirements that permit a feasible system-theoretic interpretation of network topology in terms of dynamically invariant phase-space properties. Possible artifacts induced by disregarding these requirements are pointed out and systematically studied. Finally, a rigorous interpretation of the clustering coefficient and the betweenness centrality in terms of invariant objects is proposed.

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Recurrence networks - A novel paradigm for nonlinear time series analysis

This paper presents a new approach for analysing structural properties of time series from complex systems. Starting from the concept of recurrences in phase space, the recurrence matrix of a time series is interpreted as the adjacency matrix of an associated complex network which links different points in time if the evolution of the considered states is very similar. A critical comparison of these recurrence networks with similar existing techniques is presented, revealing strong conceptual benefits of the new approach which can be considered as a unifying framework for transforming time series into complex networks that also includes other methods as special cases. It is demonstrated that there are fundamental relationships between the topological properties of recurrence networks and the statistical properties of the phase space density of the underlying dynamical system. Hence, the network description yields new quantitative characteristics of the dynamical complexity of a time series, which substantially complement existing measures of recurrence quantification analysis.

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