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Renato Guseo

Publications and source records attributed to Renato Guseo.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

stat.AP

On inverse product cannibalisation: a new Lotka-Volterra model for asymmetric competition in the ICTs

Product cannibalisation is a well-known phenomenon in marketing and technological research and describes the case when a new product steals sales from another product under the same brand. A very special case of cannibalisation may occur when the older product react to the competitive strength of the newer one, absorbing the corresponding market shares. Given its special character, we call this phenomenon inverse product cannibalisation. We suppose that a case of inverse cannibalisation is observed between two products of Apple Inc., the iPhone and the more recent iPad, and the first has been able to succeed at the expense of the second. To explore this hypothesis, within a diffusion of innovations perspective, we propose a modified Lotka-Volterra model for mean trajectories in asymmetric competition, allowing us to test the presence and the extent of the inverse cannibalisation phenomenon. A SARMAX refinement integrates the short term predictions with seasonal and autodependent components. A non-dimensional representation of the proposed model shows that the penetration of the second technology has been beneficial for the first, both in terms of market size and life cycle length.

stat.AP

Modeling competition between two pharmaceutical drugs using innovation diffusion models

The study of competition among brands in a common category is an interesting strategic issue for involved firms. Sales monitoring and prediction of competitors' performance represent relevant tools for management. In the pharmaceutical market, the diffusion of product knowledge plays a special role, different from the role it plays in other competing fields. This latent feature naturally affects the evolution of drugs' performances in terms of the number of packages sold. In this paper, we propose an innovation diffusion model that takes the spread of knowledge into account. We are motivated by the need of modeling competition of two antidiabetic drugs in the Italian market.

stat.AP