arXiv subjects

Renato M. Assunção

Publications and source records attributed to Renato M. Assunção.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Directional Asymmetry in Edge BasedSpatial Models via a Skew Normal Prior

We introduce a skewed edge based spatial prior, named RENeGe sk that extends the Gaussian RENeGe framework by incorporating directional asymmetry through a skew normal distribution. Skewness is defined on the edge graph and propagated to the node space, aligning asymmetric behavior with transitions across neighboring regions rather than with marginal node effects. The model is formulated within the skew normal framework and employs identifiable hierarchical priors together with low rank parameterizations to ensure scalability. The skew normal's stochastic representation is considered to facilitate the computational implementation. Simulation studies show that RENeGe sk recovers compact, edge-aligned directional structure more accurately than symmetric Gaussian priors, while remaining competitive under irregular spatial patterns. An application to cancer incidence data in Southern Brazil illustrates how the proposed approach yields stable area-level estimates while preserving localized, directionally driven spatial variation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

2-Cats: 2D Copula Approximating Transforms

Copulas are powerful statistical tools for capturing dependencies across data dimensions. Applying Copulas involves estimating independent marginals, a straightforward task, followed by the much more challenging task of determining a single copulating function, $C$, that links these marginals. For bivariate data, a copula takes the form of a two-increasing function $C: (u,v)\in \mathbb{I}^2 \rightarrow \mathbb{I}$, where $\mathbb{I} = [0, 1]$. This paper proposes 2-Cats, a Neural Network (NN) model that learns two-dimensional Copulas without relying on specific Copula families (e.g., Archimedean). Furthermore, via both theoretical properties of the model and a Lagrangian training approach, we show that 2-Cats meets the desiderata of Copula properties. Moreover, inspired by the literature on Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Sobolev Training, we further extend our training strategy to learn not only the output of a Copula but also its derivatives. Our proposed method exhibits superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art across various datasets while respecting (provably for most and approximately for a single other) properties of C.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Cooperative Object Transportation using Gibbs Random Fields

This paper presents a novel methodology that allows a swarm of robots to perform a cooperative transportation task. Our approach consists of modeling the swarm as a {\em Gibbs Random Field} (GRF), taking advantage of this framework's locality properties. By setting appropriate potential functions, robots can dynamically navigate, form groups, and perform cooperative transportation in a completely decentralized fashion. Moreover, these behaviors emerge from the local interactions without the need for explicit communication or coordination. To evaluate our methodology, we perform a series of simulations and proof-of-concept experiments in different scenarios. Our results show that the method is scalable, adaptable, and robust to failures and changes in the environment.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2018

Fast Estimation of Causal Interactions using Wold Processes

We here focus on the task of learning Granger causality matrices for multivariate point processes. In order to accomplish this task, our work is the first to explore the use of Wold processes. By doing so, we are able to develop asymptotically fast MCMC learning algorithms. With $N$ being the total number of events and $K$ the number of processes, our learning algorithm has a $O(N(\,\log(N)\,+\,\log(K)))$ cost per iteration. This is much faster than the $O(N^3\,K^2)$ or $O(K^3)$ for the state of the art. Our approach, called GrangerBusca, is validated on nine datasets. This is an advance in relation to most prior efforts which focus mostly on subsets of the Memetracker data. Regarding accuracy, GrangerBusca is three times more accurate (in Precision@10) than the state of the art for the commonly explored subsets Memetracker. Due to GrangerBusca's much lower training complexity, our approach is the only one able to train models for larger, full, sets of data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Antagonism also Flows through Retweets: The Impact of Out-of-Context Quotes in Opinion Polarization Analysis

In this paper, we study the implications of the commonplace assumption that most social media studies make with respect to the nature of message shares (such as retweets) as a predominantly positive interaction. By analyzing two large longitudinal Brazilian Twitter datasets containing 5 years of conversations on two polarizing topics - Politics and Sports - we empirically demonstrate that groups holding antagonistic views can actually retweet each other more often than they retweet other groups. We show that assuming retweets as endorsement interactions can lead to misleading conclusions with respect to the level of antagonism among social communities, and that this apparent paradox is explained in part by the use of retweets to quote the original content creator out of the message's original temporal context, for humor and criticism purposes. As a consequence, messages diffused on online media can have their polarity reversed over time, what poses challenges for social and computer scientists aiming to classify and track opinion groups on online media. On the other hand, we found that the time users take to retweet a message after it has been originally posted can be a useful signal to infer antagonism in social platforms, and that surges of out-of-context retweets correlate with sentiment drifts triggered by real-world events. We also discuss how such evidences can be embedded in sentiment analysis models.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Where geography lives? A projection approach for spatial confounding

Spatial confounding between the spatial random effects and fixed effects covariates has been recently discovered and showed that it may bring misleading interpretation to the model results. Solutions to alleviate this problem are based on decomposing the spatial random effect and fitting a restricted spatial regression. In this paper, we propose a different approach: a transformation of the geographic space to ensure that the unobserved spatial random effect added to the regression is orthogonal to the fixed effects covariates. Our approach, named SPOCK, has the additional benefit of providing a fast and simple computational method to estimate the parameters. Furthermore, it does not constrain the distribution class assumed for the spatial error term. A simulation study and a real data analysis are presented to better understand the advantages of the new method in comparison with the existing ones.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

A latent shared-component generative model for real-time disease surveillance using Twitter data

Exploiting the large amount of available data for addressing relevant social problems has been one of the key challenges in data mining. Such efforts have been recently named "data science for social good" and attracted the attention of several researchers and institutions. We give a contribution in this objective in this paper considering a difficult public health problem, the timely monitoring of dengue epidemics in small geographical areas. We develop a generative simple yet effective model to connect the fluctuations of disease cases and disease-related Twitter posts. We considered a hidden Markov process driving both, the fluctuations in dengue reported cases and the tweets issued in each region. We add a stable but random source of tweets to represent the posts when no disease cases are recorded. The model is learned through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces the posterior distribution of the relevant parameters. Using data from a significant number of large Brazilian towns, we demonstrate empirically that our model is able to predict well the next weeks of the disease counts using the tweets and disease cases jointly.

cs.SI↗