arXiv subjects

Reza Solgi

Publications and source records attributed to Reza Solgi.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2016

Nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian quantiles

Here we develop a method for performing nonparametric Bayesian inference on quantiles. Relying on geometric measure theory and employing a Hausdorff base measure, we are able to specify meaningful priors for the quantile while treating the distribution of the data otherwise nonparametrically. We further extend the method to a hierarchical model for quantiles of subpopulations, linking subgroups together solely through their quantiles. Our approach is computationally straightforward, allowing for censored and noisy data. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on simulated data and an applied problem from sports statistics, where it is observed to stabilize and improve inference and prediction.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Moment conditions and Bayesian nonparametrics

Models phrased though moment conditions are central to much of modern inference. Here these moment conditions are embedded within a nonparametric Bayesian setup. Handling such a model is not probabilistically straightforward as the posterior has support on a manifold. We solve the relevant issues, building new probability and computational tools using Hausdorff measures to analyze them on real and simulated data. These new methods which involve simulating on a manifold can be applied widely, including providing Bayesian analysis of quasi-likelihoods, linear and nonlinear regression, missing data and hierarchical models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Constrained Nonlinear Model Predictive Control of an MMA Polymerization Process via Evolutionary Optimization

In this work, a nonlinear model predictive controller is developed for a batch polymerization process. The physical model of the process is parameterized along a desired trajectory resulting in a trajectory linearized piecewise model (a multiple linear model bank) and the parameters are identified for an experimental polymerization reactor. Then, a multiple model adaptive predictive controller is designed for thermal trajectory tracking of the MMA polymerization. The input control signal to the process is constrained by the maximum thermal power provided by the heaters. The constrained optimization in the model predictive controller is solved via genetic algorithms to minimize a DMC cost function in each sampling interval.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2010

Zero Variance Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Estimators

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).

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