arXiv subjects

Reza Zandehshahvar

Publications and source records attributed to Reza Zandehshahvar.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Prediction

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations. As renewable penetration grows, reliable probabilistic forecasting is becoming essential for managing uncertainty and supporting risk-aware operational decision-making. However, these forecasts often suffer from miscalibration due to temporal variability, changing weather conditions, and heterogeneous operating regimes. In many real-world settings, renewable energy forecasts are provided by external sources, vendors, or independently trained systems, making retraining infeasible because of limited model access or computational constraints. This creates a need for efficient and model-agnostic methods that can improve forecast reliability after they are produced. This paper presents Context-Aware Conformal Prediction (CACP), a framework for calibrating renewable energy forecasts. The proposed method relies on a weighting mechanism during the calibration procedure which assigns higher weights to historical observations that are more similar to the target forecasting condition. This enables adaptive prediction intervals that reflect local uncertainty regimes without requiring access to, or retraining of, the underlying forecasting model. Experiments are performed on a large-scale dataset from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) day-ahead solar forecasting, covering multiple systems including MISO, ERCTO, and SPP. The results show that CACP improves the reliability-efficiency tradeoff at both site and system levels compared to NREL's base forecasting model and the other conformal prediction baselines. These results suggest that CACP can serve as a practical reliability-enhancement layer for trustworthy AI-enabled renewable energy forecasting and operational decision support.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

CSI-4CAST: A Hybrid Deep Learning Model for CSI Prediction with Comprehensive Robustness and Generalization Testing

Channel state information (CSI) prediction is a promising strategy for ensuring reliable and efficient operation of massive multiple-input multiple-output (mMIMO) systems by providing timely downlink (DL) CSI. While deep learning-based methods have advanced beyond conventional model-driven and statistical approaches, they remain limited in robustness to practical non-Gaussian noise, generalization across diverse channel conditions, and computational efficiency. This paper introduces CSI-4CAST, a hybrid deep learning architecture that integrates 4 key components, i.e., Convolutional neural network residuals, Adaptive correction layers, ShuffleNet blocks, and Transformers, to efficiently capture both local and long-range dependencies in CSI prediction. To enable rigorous evaluation, this work further presents a comprehensive benchmark, CSI-RRG for Regular, Robustness and Generalization testing, which includes more than 300,000 samples across 3,060 realistic scenarios for both TDD and FDD systems. The dataset spans multiple channel models, a wide range of delay spreads and user velocities, and diverse noise types and intensity degrees. Experimental results show that CSI-4CAST achieves superior prediction accuracy with substantially lower computational cost, outperforming baselines in 81.5% of TDD scenarios and 44.4% of FDD scenario, the best performance among all evaluated models, while reducing FLOPs by 5x and 3x compared to LLM4CP, the strongest baseline. In addition, evaluation over CSI-RRG provides valuable insights into how different channel factors affect the performance and generalization capability of deep learning models. Both the dataset (https://huggingface.co/CSI-4CAST) and evaluation protocols (https://github.com/AI4OPT/CSI-4CAST) are publicly released to establish a standardized benchmark and to encourage further research on robust and efficient CSI prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Delivery Delay Duration Prediction via Multi-Task Deep Learning

Accurate delivery delay prediction is critical for maintaining operational efficiency and customer satisfaction across modern supply chains. Yet the increasing complexity of logistics networks, spanning multimodal transportation, cross-country routing, and pronounced regional variability, makes this prediction task inherently challenging. This paper introduces a multi-task deep learning model for delivery delay duration prediction in the presence of significant imbalanced data, where delayed shipments are rare but operationally consequential. The model embeds high-dimensional shipment features with dedicated embedding layers for tabular data, and then uses a classification-then-regression strategy to predict the delivery delay duration for on-time and delayed shipments. Unlike sequential pipelines, this approach enables end-to-end training, improves the detection of delayed cases, and supports probabilistic forecasting for uncertainty-aware decision making. The proposed approach is evaluated on a large-scale real-world dataset from an industrial partner, comprising more than 10 million historical shipment records across four major source locations with distinct regional characteristics. The proposed model is compared with traditional machine learning methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a mean absolute error of 0.67-0.91 days for delayed-shipment predictions, outperforming single-step tree-based regression baselines by 41-64% and two-step classify-then-regress tree-based models by 15-35%. These gains demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in operational delivery delay forecasting under highly imbalanced and heterogeneous conditions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Copula-Based Aggregation and Context-Aware Conformal Prediction for Reliable Renewable Energy Forecasting

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to fleet-level probabilistic models and instead rely on site-level forecasts produced by heterogeneous third-party providers. Constructing coherent and calibrated fleet-level probabilistic forecasts from such inputs remains challenging due to complex cross-site dependencies and aggregation-induced miscalibration. This paper proposes a calibrated probabilistic aggregation framework that directly converts site-level probabilistic forecasts into reliable fleet-level forecasts in settings where system-level models cannot be trained or maintained. The framework integrates copula-based dependence modeling to capture cross-site correlations with Context-Aware Conformal Prediction (CACP) to correct miscalibration at the aggregated level. This combination enables dependence-aware aggregation while providing valid coverage and maintaining sharp prediction intervals. Experiments on large-scale solar generation datasets from MISO, ERCOT, and SPP demonstrate that the proposed Copula+CACP approach consistently achieves near-nominal coverage with significantly sharper intervals than uncalibrated aggregation baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Agentic AI for Scaling Diagnosis and Care in Neurodegenerative Disease

United States healthcare systems are struggling to meet the growing demand for neurological care, particularly in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). Generative AI built on language models (LLMs) now enables agentic AI systems that can enhance clinician capabilities to approach specialist-level assessment and decision-making in ADRD care at scale. This article presents a comprehensive six-phase roadmap for responsible design and integration of such systems into ADRD care: (1) high-quality standardized data collection across modalities; (2) decision support; (3) clinical integration enhancing workflows; (4) rigorous validation and monitoring protocols; (5) continuous learning through clinical feedback; and (6) robust ethics and risk management frameworks. This human centered approach optimizes clinicians' capabilities in comprehensive data collection, interpretation of complex clinical information, and timely application of relevant medical knowledge while prioritizing patient safety, healthcare equity, and transparency. Though focused on ADRD, these principles offer broad applicability across medical specialties facing similar systemic challenges.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

PROPEL: Supervised and Reinforcement Learning for Large-Scale Supply Chain Planning

This paper considers how to fuse Machine Learning (ML) and optimization to solve large-scale Supply Chain Planning (SCP) optimization problems. These problems can be formulated as MIP models which feature both integer (non-binary) and continuous variables, as well as flow balance and capacity constraints. This raises fundamental challenges for existing integrations of ML and optimization that have focused on binary MIPs and graph problems. To address these, the paper proposes PROPEL, a new framework that combines optimization with both supervised and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to reduce the size of search space significantly. PROPEL uses supervised learning, not to predict the values of all integer variables, but to identify the variables that are fixed to zero in the optimal solution, leveraging the structure of SCP applications. PROPEL includes a DRL component that selects which fixed-at-zero variables must be relaxed to improve solution quality when the supervised learning step does not produce a solution with the desired optimality tolerance. PROPEL has been applied to industrial supply chain planning optimizations with millions of variables. The computational results show dramatic improvements in solution times and quality, including a 60% reduction in primal integral and an 88% primal gap reduction, and improvement factors of up to 13.57 and 15.92, respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting and Operations through Probabilistic Forecast Aggregation

Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of renewable energy production, especially wind and solar generation. This paper considers the setting where probabilistic forecasts are provided for individual renewable energy sites using, e.g., quantile regression models, but without any correlation information between sites. This setting is common if, e.g., such forecasts are provided by each individual site, or by multiple vendors. However, to effectively manage a fleet of renewable generators, it is necessary to aggregate these individual forecasts to the fleet level, while ensuring that the aggregated probabilistic forecast is statistically consistent and reliable. To address this challenge, this paper presents the integrated use of Copula and Monte-Carlo methods to aggregate individual probabilistic forecasts into a statistically calibrated, probabilistic forecast at the fleet level. The proposed framework is validated using synthetic data from several large-scale systems in the United States. This work has important implications for grid operators and energy planners, providing them with better tools to manage the variability and uncertainty inherent in renewable energy production.

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arXiv2024

Confidence-Aware Deep Learning for Load Plan Adjustments in the Parcel Service Industry

This study develops a deep learning-based approach to automate inbound load plan adjustments for a large transportation and logistics company. It addresses a critical challenge for the efficient and resilient planning of E-commerce operations in presence of increasing uncertainties. The paper introduces an innovative data-driven approach to inbound load planning. Leveraging extensive historical data, the paper presents a two-stage decision-making process using deep learning and conformal prediction to provide scalable, accurate, and confidence-aware solutions. The first stage of the prediction is dedicated to tactical load-planning, while the second stage is dedicated to the operational planning, incorporating the latest available data to refine the decisions at the finest granularity. Extensive experiments compare traditional machine learning models and deep learning methods. They highlight the importance and effectiveness of the embedding layers for enhancing the performance of deep learning models. Furthermore, the results emphasize the efficacy of conformal prediction to provide confidence-aware prediction sets. The findings suggest that data-driven methods can substantially improve decision making in inbound load planning, offering planners a comprehensive, trustworthy, and real-time framework to make decisions. The initial deployment in the industry setting indicates a high accuracy of the proposed framework.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Weather-Informed Probabilistic Forecasting and Scenario Generation in Power Systems

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting. This paper proposes a method combining probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power in high-dimensional contexts. By incorporating weather covariates and restoring spatio-temporal correlations, the proposed method enhances the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in RES. Extensive numerical experiments compare the effectiveness of different time series models, with performance evaluated using comprehensive metrics on a real-world and high-dimensional dataset from Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). The results highlight the importance of weather information and demonstrate the efficacy of the Gaussian copula in generating realistic scenarios, with the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model showing superior performance.

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