arXiv subjects

Ricardo Baptista

Publications and source records attributed to Ricardo Baptista.

54 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

On the representation and learning of monotone triangular transport maps

Transportation of measure provides a versatile approach for modeling complex probability distributions, with applications in density estimation, Bayesian inference, generative modeling, and beyond. Monotone triangular transport maps$\unicode{x2014}$approximations of the Knothe$\unicode{x2013}$Rosenblatt (KR) rearrangement$\unicode{x2014}$are a canonical choice for these tasks. Yet the representation and parameterization of such maps have a significant impact on their generality and expressiveness, and on properties of the optimization problem that arises in learning a map from data (e.g., via maximum likelihood estimation). We present a general framework for representing monotone triangular maps via invertible transformations of smooth functions. We establish conditions on the transformation such that the associated infinite-dimensional minimization problem has no spurious local minima, i.e., all local minima are global minima; and we show for target distributions satisfying certain tail conditions that the unique global minimizer corresponds to the KR map. Given a sample from the target, we then propose an adaptive algorithm that estimates a sparse semi-parametric approximation of the underlying KR map. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to joint and conditional density estimation, likelihood-free inference, and structure learning of directed graphical models, with stable generalization performance across a range of sample sizes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Ensemble transport smoothing. Part II: Nonlinear updates

Smoothing is a specialized form of Bayesian inference for state-space models that characterizes the posterior distribution of a collection of states given an associated sequence of observations. Ramgraber et al. (2023) proposes a general framework for transport-based ensemble smoothing, which includes linear Kalman-type smoothers as special cases. Here, we build on this foundation to realize and demonstrate nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers. We discuss parameterization and regularization of the associated transport maps, and then examine the performance of these smoothers for nonlinear and chaotic dynamical systems that exhibit non-Gaussian behavior. In these settings, our nonlinear transport smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional linear smoothers and state-of-the-art iterative ensemble Kalman smoothers, for comparable numbers of model evaluations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Ensemble transport smoothing. Part I: Unified framework

Smoothers are algorithms for Bayesian time series re-analysis. Most operational smoothers rely either on affine Kalman-type transformations or on sequential importance sampling. These strategies occupy opposite ends of a spectrum that trades computational efficiency and scalability for statistical generality and consistency: non-Gaussianity renders affine Kalman updates inconsistent with the true Bayesian solution, while the ensemble size required for successful importance sampling can be prohibitive. This paper revisits the smoothing problem from the perspective of measure transport, which offers the prospect of consistent prior-to-posterior transformations for Bayesian inference. We leverage this capacity by proposing a general ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing. Within this framework, we derive a comprehensive set of smoothing recursions based on nonlinear transport maps and detail how they exploit the structure of state-space models in fully non-Gaussian settings. We also describe how many standard Kalman-type smoothing algorithms emerge as special cases of our framework. A companion paper (Ramgraber et al., 2023) explores the implementation of nonlinear ensemble transport smoothers in greater depth.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Structured Neural Networks for Density Estimation and Causal Inference

Injecting structure into neural networks enables learning functions that satisfy invariances with respect to subsets of inputs. For instance, when learning generative models using neural networks, it is advantageous to encode the conditional independence structure of observed variables, often in the form of Bayesian networks. We propose the Structured Neural Network (StrNN), which injects structure through masking pathways in a neural network. The masks are designed via a novel relationship we explore between neural network architectures and binary matrix factorization, to ensure that the desired independencies are respected. We devise and study practical algorithms for this otherwise NP-hard design problem based on novel objectives that control the model architecture. We demonstrate the utility of StrNN in three applications: (1) binary and Gaussian density estimation with StrNN, (2) real-valued density estimation with Structured Autoregressive Flows (StrAFs) and Structured Continuous Normalizing Flows (StrCNF), and (3) interventional and counterfactual analysis with StrAFs for causal inference. Our work opens up new avenues for learning neural networks that enable data-efficient generative modeling and the use of normalizing flows for causal effect estimation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Debias Coarsely, Sample Conditionally: Statistical Downscaling through Optimal Transport and Probabilistic Diffusion Models

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling using unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a biased coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by composing two transformations: (i) a debiasing step via an optimal transport map, and (ii) an upsampling step achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with a posteriori conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without needing paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of 8x and 16x. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/probabilistic_diffusion.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Computational Optimal Transport and Filtering on Riemannian manifolds

In this paper we extend recent developments in computational optimal transport to the setting of Riemannian manifolds. In particular, we show how to learn optimal transport maps from samples that relate probability distributions defined on manifolds. Specializing these maps for sampling conditional probability distributions provides an ensemble approach for solving nonlinear filtering problems defined on such geometries. The proposed computational methodology is illustrated with examples of transport and nonlinear filtering on Lie groups, including the circle $S^1$, the special Euclidean group $SE(2)$, and the special orthogonal group $SO(3)$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Distributed Nonlinear Filtering using Triangular Transport Maps

The distributed filtering problem sequentially estimates a global state variable using observations from a network of local sensors with different measurement models. In this work, we introduce a novel methodology for distributed nonlinear filtering by combining techniques from transportation of measures, dimensionality reduction, and consensus algorithms. We illustrate our methodology on a satellite pose estimation problem from a network of direct and indirect observers. The numerical results serve as a proof of concept, offering new venues for theoretical and applied research in the domain of distributed filtering.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2023

An adaptive ensemble filter for heavy-tailed distributions: tuning-free inflation and localization

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version - the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) - that have been designed under Gaussian assumptions result in degraded performance. t-distributions are a parametric family of distributions whose tail-heaviness is modulated by a degree of freedom $ν$. Interestingly, Cauchy and Gaussian distributions correspond to the extreme cases of a t-distribution for $ν= 1$ and $ν= \infty$, respectively. Leveraging tools from measure transport (Spantini et al., SIAM Review, 2022), we present a generalization of the EnKF whose prior-to-posterior update leads to exact inference for t-distributions. We demonstrate that this filter is less sensitive to outlying synthetic observations generated by the observation model for small $ν$. Moreover, it recovers the Kalman filter for $ν= \infty$. For nonlinear state-space models with heavy-tailed noise, we propose an algorithm to estimate the prior-to-posterior update from samples of joint forecast distribution of the states and observations. We rely on a regularized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the mean, scale matrix, and degree of freedom of heavy-tailed \textit{t}-distributions from limited samples (Finegold and Drton, arXiv preprint, 2014). Leveraging the conditional independence of the joint forecast distribution, we regularize the scale matrix with an $l1$ sparsity-promoting penalization of the log-likelihood at each iteration of the EM algorithm. By sequentially estimating the degree of freedom at each analysis step, our filter can adapt its prior-to-posterior update to the tail-heaviness of the data. We demonstrate the benefits of this new ensemble filter on challenging filtering problems.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2023

A generative flow for conditional sampling via optimal transport

Sampling conditional distributions is a fundamental task for Bayesian inference and density estimation. Generative models, such as normalizing flows and generative adversarial networks, characterize conditional distributions by learning a transport map that pushes forward a simple reference (e.g., a standard Gaussian) to a target distribution. While these approaches successfully describe many non-Gaussian problems, their performance is often limited by parametric bias and the reliability of gradient-based (adversarial) optimizers to learn these transformations. This work proposes a non-parametric generative model that iteratively maps reference samples to the target. The model uses block-triangular transport maps, whose components are shown to characterize conditionals of the target distribution. These maps arise from solving an optimal transport problem with a weighted $L^2$ cost function, thereby extending the data-driven approach in [Trigila and Tabak, 2016] for conditional sampling. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a two dimensional example and on a parameter inference problem involving nonlinear ODEs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Conditional Sampling with Monotone GANs: from Generative Models to Likelihood-Free Inference

We present a novel framework for conditional sampling of probability measures, using block triangular transport maps. We develop the theoretical foundations of block triangular transport in a Banach space setting, establishing general conditions under which conditional sampling can be achieved and drawing connections between monotone block triangular maps and optimal transport. Based on this theory, we then introduce a computational approach, called monotone generative adversarial networks (M-GANs), to learn suitable block triangular maps. Our algorithm uses only samples from the underlying joint probability measure and is hence likelihood-free. Numerical experiments with M-GAN demonstrate accurate sampling of conditional measures in synthetic examples, Bayesian inverse problems involving ordinary and partial differential equations, and probabilistic image in-painting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Learning non-Gaussian graphical models via Hessian scores and triangular transport

Undirected probabilistic graphical models represent the conditional dependencies, or Markov properties, of a collection of random variables. Knowing the sparsity of such a graphical model is valuable for modeling multivariate distributions and for efficiently performing inference. While the problem of learning graph structure from data has been studied extensively for certain parametric families of distributions, most existing methods fail to consistently recover the graph structure for non-Gaussian data. Here we propose an algorithm for learning the Markov structure of continuous and non-Gaussian distributions. To characterize conditional independence, we introduce a score based on integrated Hessian information from the joint log-density, and we prove that this score upper bounds the conditional mutual information for a general class of distributions. To compute the score, our algorithm SING estimates the density using a deterministic coupling, induced by a triangular transport map, and iteratively exploits sparse structure in the map to reveal sparsity in the graph. For certain non-Gaussian datasets, we show that our algorithm recovers the graph structure even with a biased approximation to the density. Among other examples, we apply SING to learn the dependencies between the states of a chaotic dynamical system with local interactions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

A low-rank ensemble Kalman filter for elliptic observations

We propose a regularization method for ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) with elliptic observation operators. Commonly used EnKF regularization methods suppress state correlations at long distances. For observations described by elliptic partial differential equations, such as the pressure Poisson equation (PPE) in incompressible fluid flows, distance localization cannot be applied, as we cannot disentangle slowly decaying physical interactions from spurious long-range correlations. This is particularly true for the PPE, in which distant vortex elements couple nonlinearly to induce pressure. Instead, these inverse problems have a low effective dimension: low-dimensional projections of the observations strongly inform a low-dimensional subspace of the state space. We derive a low-rank factorization of the Kalman gain based on the spectrum of the Jacobian of the observation operator. The identified eigenvectors generalize the source and target modes of the multipole expansion, independently of the underlying spatial distribution of the problem. Given rapid spectral decay, inference can be performed in the low-dimensional subspace spanned by the dominant eigenvectors. This low-rank EnKF is assessed on dynamical systems with Poisson observation operators, where we seek to estimate the positions and strengths of point singularities over time from potential or pressure observations. We also comment on the broader applicability of this approach to elliptic inverse problems outside the context of filtering.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2022

Gradient-based data and parameter dimension reduction for Bayesian models: an information theoretic perspective

We consider the problem of reducing the dimensions of parameters and data in non-Gaussian Bayesian inference problems. Our goal is to identify an "informed" subspace of the parameters and an "informative" subspace of the data so that a high-dimensional inference problem can be approximately reformulated in low-to-moderate dimensions, thereby improving the computational efficiency of many inference techniques. To do so, we exploit gradient evaluations of the log-likelihood function. Furthermore, we use an information-theoretic analysis to derive a bound on the posterior error due to parameter and data dimension reduction. This bound relies on logarithmic Sobolev inequalities, and it reveals the appropriate dimensions of the reduced variables. We compare our method with classical dimension reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis, on applications ranging from mechanics to image processing.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian model calibration for block copolymer self-assembly: Likelihood-free inference and expected information gain computation via measure transport

We consider the Bayesian calibration of models describing the phenomenon of block copolymer (BCP) self-assembly using image data produced by microscopy or X-ray scattering techniques. To account for the random long-range disorder in BCP equilibrium structures, we introduce auxiliary variables to represent this aleatory uncertainty. These variables, however, result in an integrated likelihood for high-dimensional image data that is generally intractable to evaluate. We tackle this challenging Bayesian inference problem using a likelihood-free approach based on measure transport together with the construction of summary statistics for the image data. We also show that expected information gains (EIGs) from the observed data about the model parameters can be computed with no significant additional cost. Lastly, we present a numerical case study based on the Ohta--Kawasaki model for diblock copolymer thin film self-assembly and top-down microscopy characterization. For calibration, we introduce several domain-specific energy- and Fourier-based summary statistics, and quantify their informativeness using EIG. We demonstrate the power of the proposed approach to study the effect of data corruptions and experimental designs on the calibration results.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2022

Coupling techniques for nonlinear ensemble filtering

We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that harnesses transportation of measures, convex optimization, and ideas from probabilistic graphical models to yield robust ensemble approximations of the filtering distribution in high dimensions. Our approach can be understood as the natural generalization of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to nonlinear updates, using stochastic or deterministic couplings. The use of nonlinear updates can reduce the intrinsic bias of the EnKF at a marginal increase in computational cost. We avoid any form of importance sampling and introduce non-Gaussian localization approaches for dimension scalability. Our framework achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance on challenging configurations of the Lorenz-96 model in the chaotic regime.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Diagonal Nonlinear Transformations Preserve Structure in Covariance and Precision Matrices

For a multivariate normal distribution, the sparsity of the covariance and precision matrices encodes complete information about independence and conditional independence properties. For general distributions, the covariance and precision matrices reveal correlations and so-called partial correlations between variables, but these do not, in general, have any correspondence with respect to independence properties. In this paper, we prove that, for a certain class of non-Gaussian distributions, these correspondences still hold, exactly for the covariance and approximately for the precision. The distributions -- sometimes referred to as "nonparanormal" -- are given by diagonal transformations of multivariate normal random variables. We provide several analytic and numerical examples illustrating these results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian Optimization of Combinatorial Structures

The optimization of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions over combinatorial structures is an ubiquitous task in machine learning, engineering and the natural sciences. The combinatorial explosion of the search space and costly evaluations pose challenges for current techniques in discrete optimization and machine learning, and critically require new algorithmic ideas. This article proposes, to the best of our knowledge, the first algorithm to overcome these challenges, based on an adaptive, scalable model that identifies useful combinatorial structure even when data is scarce. Our acquisition function pioneers the use of semidefinite programming to achieve efficiency and scalability. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that this algorithm consistently outperforms other methods from combinatorial and Bayesian optimization.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Beyond normality: Learning sparse probabilistic graphical models in the non-Gaussian setting

We present an algorithm to identify sparse dependence structure in continuous and non-Gaussian probability distributions, given a corresponding set of data. The conditional independence structure of an arbitrary distribution can be represented as an undirected graph (or Markov random field), but most algorithms for learning this structure are restricted to the discrete or Gaussian cases. Our new approach allows for more realistic and accurate descriptions of the distribution in question, and in turn better estimates of its sparse Markov structure. Sparsity in the graph is of interest as it can accelerate inference, improve sampling methods, and reveal important dependencies between variables. The algorithm relies on exploiting the connection between the sparsity of the graph and the sparsity of transport maps, which deterministically couple one probability measure to another.

cs.LG↗