arXiv subjects

Ricardo Silva

Publications and source records attributed to Ricardo Silva.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Spawrious: A Benchmark for Fine Control of Spurious Correlation Biases

The problem of spurious correlations (SCs) arises when a classifier relies on non-predictive features that happen to be correlated with the labels in the training data. For example, a classifier may misclassify dog breeds based on the background of dog images. This happens when the backgrounds are correlated with other breeds in the training data, leading to misclassifications during test time. Previous SC benchmark datasets suffer from varying issues, e.g., over-saturation or only containing one-to-one (O2O) SCs, but no many-to-many (M2M) SCs arising between groups of spurious attributes and classes. In this paper, we present \benchmark-\{O2O, M2M\}-\{Easy, Medium, Hard\}, an image classification benchmark suite containing spurious correlations between classes and backgrounds. To create this dataset, we employ a text-to-image model to generate photo-realistic images and an image captioning model to filter out unsuitable ones. The resulting dataset is of high quality and contains approximately 152k images. Our experimental results demonstrate that state-of-the-art group robustness methods struggle with \benchmark, most notably on the Hard-splits with none of them getting over $70\%$ accuracy on the hardest split using a ResNet50 pretrained on ImageNet. By examining model misclassifications, we detect reliances on spurious backgrounds, demonstrating that our dataset provides a significant challenge.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic Causal Programming for Bounding Treatment Effects

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured confounding makes identification impossible. Specifically, we cast causal effects as objective functions within a constrained optimization problem, and minimize/maximize these functions to obtain bounds. We combine flexible learning algorithms with Monte Carlo methods to implement a family of solutions under the name of stochastic causal programming. In particular, we show how the generic framework can be efficiently formulated in settings where auxiliary variables are clustered into pre-treatment and post-treatment sets, where no fine-grained causal graph can be easily specified. In these settings, we can avoid the need for fully specifying the distribution family of hidden common causes. Monte Carlo computation is also much simplified, leading to algorithms which are more computationally stable against alternatives.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Proximal Causal Learning with Kernels: Two-Stage Estimation and Moment Restriction

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding, but where proxies for the latent confounder(s) are observed. We propose two kernel-based methods for nonlinear causal effect estimation in this setting: (a) a two-stage regression approach, and (b) a maximum moment restriction approach. We focus on the proximal causal learning setting, but our methods can be used to solve a wider class of inverse problems characterised by a Fredholm integral equation. In particular, we provide a unifying view of two-stage and moment restriction approaches for solving this problem in a nonlinear setting. We provide consistency guarantees for each algorithm, and we demonstrate these approaches achieve competitive results on synthetic data and data simulating a real-world task. In particular, our approach outperforms earlier methods that are not suited to leveraging proxy variables.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Pragmatic Fairness: Developing Policies with Outcome Disparity Control

We introduce a causal framework for designing optimal policies that satisfy fairness constraints. We take a pragmatic approach asking what we can do with an action space available to us and only with access to historical data. We propose two different fairness constraints: a moderation breaking constraint which aims at blocking moderation paths from the action and sensitive attribute to the outcome, and by that at reducing disparity in outcome levels as much as the provided action space permits; and an equal benefit constraint which aims at distributing gain from the new and maximized policy equally across sensitive attribute levels, and thus at keeping pre-existing preferential treatment in place or avoiding the introduction of new disparity. We introduce practical methods for implementing the constraints and illustrate their uses on experiments with semi-synthetic models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

When Do Flat Minima Optimizers Work?

Recently, flat-minima optimizers, which seek to find parameters in low-loss neighborhoods, have been shown to improve a neural network's generalization performance over stochastic and adaptive gradient-based optimizers. Two methods have received significant attention due to their scalability: 1. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), and 2. Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM). However, there has been limited investigation into their properties and no systematic benchmarking of them across different domains. We fill this gap here by comparing the loss surfaces of the models trained with each method and through broad benchmarking across computer vision, natural language processing, and graph representation learning tasks. We discover several surprising findings from these results, which we hope will help researchers further improve deep learning optimizers, and practitioners identify the right optimizer for their problem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Inferring urban polycentricity from the variability in human mobility patterns

The polycentric city model has gained popularity in spatial planning policy, since it is believed to overcome some of the problems often present in monocentric metropolises, ranging from congestion to difficult accessibility to jobs and services. However, the concept 'polycentric city' has a fuzzy definition and as a result, the extent to which a city is polycentric cannot be easily determined. Here, we leverage the fine spatio-temporal resolution of smart travel card data to infer urban polycentricity by examining how a city departs from a well-defined monocentric model. In particular, we analyse the human movements that arise as a result of sophisticated forms of urban structure by introducing a novel probabilistic approach which captures the complexity of these human movements. We focus on London (UK) and Seoul (South Korea) as our two case studies, and we specifically find evidence that London displays a higher degree of monocentricity than Seoul, suggesting that Seoul is likely to be more polycentric than London.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Causal discovery under a confounder blanket

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is rarely straightforward, but the problem is especially difficult in high dimensions. For these applications, causal discovery algorithms typically require parametric restrictions or extreme sparsity constraints. We relax these assumptions and focus on an important but more specialized problem, namely recovering the causal order among a subgraph of variables known to descend from some (possibly large) set of confounding covariates, i.e. a $\textit{confounder blanket}$. This is useful in many settings, for example when studying a dynamic biomolecular subsystem with genetic data providing background information. Under a structural assumption called the $\textit{confounder blanket principle}$, which we argue is essential for tractable causal discovery in high dimensions, our method accommodates graphs of low or high sparsity while maintaining polynomial time complexity. We present a structure learning algorithm that is provably sound and complete with respect to a so-called $\textit{lazy oracle}$. We design inference procedures with finite sample error control for linear and nonlinear systems, and demonstrate our approach on a range of simulated and real-world datasets. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{cbl}$, is available from $\texttt{CRAN}$.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Causal Inference with Treatment Measurement Error: A Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Approach

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement error, additionally handling unobserved confounding in the continuous setting is non-trivial: we have seen little prior work. As a by-product of our investigation, we clarify a connection between mean embeddings and characteristic functions, and how learning one simultaneously allows one to learn the other. This opens the way for kernel method research to leverage existing results in characteristic function estimation. Finally, we empirically show that our proposed method, MEKIV, improves over baselines and is robust under changes in the strength of measurement error and to the type of error distributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

FCN-Pose: A Pruned and Quantized CNN for Robot Pose Estimation for Constrained Devices

IoT devices suffer from resource limitations, such as processor, RAM, and disc storage. These limitations become more evident when handling demanding applications, such as deep learning, well-known for their heavy computational requirements. A case in point is robot pose estimation, an application that predicts the critical points of the desired image object. One way to mitigate processing and storage problems is compressing that deep learning application. This paper proposes a new CNN for the pose estimation while applying the compression techniques of pruning and quantization to reduce his demands and improve the response time. While the pruning process reduces the total number of parameters required for inference, quantization decreases the precision of the floating-point. We run the approach using a pose estimation task for a robotic arm and compare the results in a high-end device and a constrained device. As metrics, we consider the number of Floating-point Operations Per Second(FLOPS), the total of mathematical computations, the calculation of parameters, the inference time, and the number of video frames processed per second. In addition, we undertake a qualitative evaluation where we compare the output image predicted for each pruned network with the corresponding original one. We reduce the originally proposed network to a 70% pruning rate, implying an 88.86% reduction in parameters, 94.45% reduction in FLOPS, and for the disc storage, we reduced the requirement in 70% while increasing error by a mere $1\%$. With regard input image processing, this metric increases from 11.71 FPS to 41.9 FPS for the Desktop case. When using the constrained device, image processing augmented from 2.86 FPS to 10.04 FPS. The higher processing rate of image frames achieved by the proposed approach allows a much shorter response time.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

The Causal Marginal Polytope for Bounding Treatment Effects

Due to unmeasured confounding, it is often not possible to identify causal effects from a postulated model. Nevertheless, we can ask for partial identification, which usually boils down to finding upper and lower bounds of a causal quantity of interest derived from all solutions compatible with the encoded structural assumptions. One appealing way to derive such bounds is by casting it in terms of a constrained optimization method that searches over all causal models compatible with evidence, as introduced in the classic work of Balke and Pearl (1994) for discrete data. Although by construction this guarantees tight bounds, it poses a formidable computational challenge. To cope with this issue, alternatives include algorithms that are not guaranteed to be tight, or by introducing restrictions on the class of models. In this paper, we introduce a novel alternative: inspired by ideas coming from belief propagation, we enforce compatibility between marginals of a causal model and data, without constructing a global causal model. We call this collection of locally consistent marginals the causal marginal polytope. As global independence constraints disappear when considering small dimensional tractable marginals, this also leads to a rethinking of how to elicit and express causal knowledge. We provide an explicit algorithm and implementation of this idea, and assess its practicality with numerical experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Causal Effect Inference for Structured Treatments

We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) for structured treatments (e.g., graphs, images, texts). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose the generalized Robinson decomposition, which (i) isolates the causal estimand (reducing regularization bias), (ii) allows one to plug in arbitrary models for learning, and (iii) possesses a quasi-oracle convergence guarantee under mild assumptions. In experiments with small-world and molecular graphs we demonstrate that our approach outperforms prior work in CATE estimation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Operationalizing Complex Causes: A Pragmatic View of Mediation

We examine the problem of causal response estimation for complex objects (e.g., text, images, genomics). In this setting, classical \emph{atomic} interventions are often not available (e.g., changes to characters, pixels, DNA base-pairs). Instead, we only have access to indirect or \emph{crude} interventions (e.g., enrolling in a writing program, modifying a scene, applying a gene therapy). In this work, we formalize this problem and provide an initial solution. Given a collection of candidate mediators, we propose (a) a two-step method for predicting the causal responses of crude interventions; and (b) a testing procedure to identify mediators of crude interventions. We demonstrate, on a range of simulated and real-world-inspired examples, that our approach allows us to efficiently estimate the effect of crude interventions with limited data from new treatment regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Two-way sparsity for time-varying networks, with applications in genomics

We propose a novel way of modelling time-varying networks, by inducing two-way sparsity on local models of node connectivity. This two-way sparsity separately promotes sparsity across time and sparsity across variables (within time). Separation of these two types of sparsity is achieved through a novel prior structure, which draws on ideas from the Bayesian lasso and from copula modelling. We provide an efficient implementation of the proposed model via a Gibbs sampler, and we apply the model to data from neural development. In doing so, we demonstrate that the proposed model is able to identify changes in genomic network structure that match current biological knowledge. Such changes in genomic network structure can then be used by neuro-biologists to identify potential targets for further experimental investigation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

A Class of Algorithms for General Instrumental Variable Models

Causal treatment effect estimation is a key problem that arises in a variety of real-world settings, from personalized medicine to governmental policy making. There has been a flurry of recent work in machine learning on estimating causal effects when one has access to an instrument. However, to achieve identifiability, they in general require one-size-fits-all assumptions such as an additive error model for the outcome. An alternative is partial identification, which provides bounds on the causal effect. Little exists in terms of bounding methods that can deal with the most general case, where the treatment itself can be continuous. Moreover, bounding methods generally do not allow for a continuum of assumptions on the shape of the causal effect that can smoothly trade off stronger background knowledge for more informative bounds. In this work, we provide a method for causal effect bounding in continuous distributions, leveraging recent advances in gradient-based methods for the optimization of computationally intractable objective functions. We demonstrate on a set of synthetic and real-world data that our bounds capture the causal effect when additive methods fail, providing a useful range of answers compatible with observation as opposed to relying on unwarranted structural assumptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A Bayesian inference approach for determining player abilities in football

We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model to capture occurrences of event types, from which we infer player abilities. Our approach also allows the visualisation of differences between players, for a specific ability, through the marginal posterior variational densities. We then use these inferred player abilities to extend the Bayesian hierarchical model of Baio and Blangiardo (2010) which captures a team's scoring rate (the rate at which they score goals). We apply the resulting scheme to the English Premier League, capturing player abilities over the 2013/2014 season, before using output from the hierarchical model to predict whether over or under 2.5 goals will be scored in a given game in the 2014/2015 season. This validates our model as a way of providing insights into team formation and the individual success of sports teams.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Learning Joint Nonlinear Effects from Single-variable Interventions in the Presence of Hidden Confounders

We propose an approach to estimate the effect of multiple simultaneous interventions in the presence of hidden confounders. To overcome the problem of hidden confounding, we consider the setting where we have access to not only the observational data but also sets of single-variable interventions in which each of the treatment variables is intervened on separately. We prove identifiability under the assumption that the data is generated from a nonlinear continuous structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise. In addition, we propose a simple parameter estimation method by pooling all the data from different regimes and jointly maximizing the combined likelihood. We also conduct comprehensive experiments to verify the identifiability result as well as to compare the performance of our approach against a baseline on both synthetic and real-world data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Neural Likelihoods via Cumulative Distribution Functions

We leverage neural networks as universal approximators of monotonic functions to build a parameterization of conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). By the application of automatic differentiation with respect to response variables and then to parameters of this CDF representation, we are able to build black box CDF and density estimators. A suite of families is introduced as alternative constructions for the multivariate case. At one extreme, the simplest construction is a competitive density estimator against state-of-the-art deep learning methods, although it does not provide an easily computable representation of multivariate CDFs. At the other extreme, we have a flexible construction from which multivariate CDF evaluations and marginalizations can be obtained by a simple forward pass in a deep neural net, but where the computation of the likelihood scales exponentially with dimensionality. Alternatives in between the extremes are discussed. We evaluate the different representations empirically on a variety of tasks involving tail area probabilities, tail dependence and (partial) density estimation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Differentiable Causal Backdoor Discovery

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning system. Given only observational data, confounders often obscure the true causal effect. Luckily, in some cases, it is possible to recover the causal effect by using certain observed variables to adjust for the effects of confounders. However, without access to the true causal model, finding this adjustment requires brute-force search. In this work, we present an algorithm that exploits auxiliary variables, similar to instruments, in order to find an appropriate adjustment by a gradient-based optimization method. We demonstrate that it outperforms practical alternatives in estimating the true causal effect, without knowledge of the full causal graph.

cs.LG↗