arXiv subjects

Riccardo Rastelli

Publications and source records attributed to Riccardo Rastelli.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

The Sparse Latent Position Model for nonnegative weighted networks

This paper introduces a new methodology to analyse bipartite and unipartite networks with nonnegative edge values. The proposed approach combines and adapts a number of ideas from the literature on latent variable network models. The resulting framework is a new type of latent position model which exhibits great flexibility, and is able to capture important features that are generally exhibited by observed networks, such as sparsity and heavy tailed degree distributions. A crucial advantage of the proposed method is that the number of latent dimensions is automatically deduced from the data in one single algorithmic framework. In addition, the model attaches a weight to each of the latent dimensions, hence providing a measure of their relative importance. A fast variational Bayesian algorithm is proposed to estimate the parameters of the model. Finally, applications of the proposed methodology are illustrated on both artificial and real datasets, and comparisons with other existing procedures are provided.

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arXiv2018

A dynamic network model to measure exposure diversification in the Austrian interbank market

We propose a statistical model for weighted temporal networks capable of measuring the level of heterogeneity in a financial system. Our model focuses on the level of diversification of financial institutions; that is, whether they are more inclined to distribute their assets equally among partners, or if they rather concentrate their commitment towards a limited number of institutions. Crucially, a Markov property is introduced to capture time dependencies and to make our measures comparable across time. We apply the model on an original dataset of Austrian interbank exposures. The temporal span encompasses the onset and development of the financial crisis in 2008 as well as the beginnings of European sovereign debt crisis in 2011. Our analysis highlights an overall increasing trend for network homogeneity, whereby core banks have a tendency to distribute their market exposures more equally across their partners.

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arXiv2018

Exact integrated completed likelihood maximisation in a stochastic block transition model for dynamic networks

The latent stochastic block model is a flexible and widely used statistical model for the analysis of network data. Extensions of this model to a dynamic context often fail to capture the persistence of edges in contiguous network snapshots. The recently introduced stochastic block transition model addresses precisely this issue, by modelling the probabilities of creating a new edge and of maintaining an edge over time. Using a model-based clustering approach, this paper illustrates a methodology to fit stochastic block transition models under a Bayesian framework. The method relies on a greedy optimisation procedure to maximise the exact integrated completed likelihood. The computational efficiency of the algorithm used makes the methodology scalable and appropriate for the analysis of large network datasets. Crucially, the optimal number of latent groups is automatically selected at no additional computing cost. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated through applications to both artificial and real datasets.

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arXiv2018

Discussion of the article "Bayesian cluster analysis: point estimation and credible balls" by Wade and Ghahramani

We present a discussion of the paper "Bayesian cluster analysis: point estimation and credible balls" by Wade and Ghahramani. We believe that this paper contributes substantially to the literature on Bayesian clustering by filling in an important methodological gap, by providing a means to assess the uncertainty around a point estimate of the optimal clustering solution based on a given loss function. In our discussion we reflect on the characterisation of uncertainty around the Bayesian optimal partition, revealing other possible alternatives that may be viable. In addition, we suggest other important extensions of the approach proposed which may lead to wider applicability.

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arXiv2017

Optimal Bayesian estimators for latent variable cluster models

In cluster analysis interest lies in probabilistically capturing partitions of individuals, items or observations into groups, such that those belonging to the same group share similar attributes or relational profiles. Bayesian posterior samples for the latent allocation variables can be effectively obtained in a wide range of clustering models, including finite mixtures, infinite mixtures, hidden Markov models and block models for networks. However, due to the categorical nature of the clustering variables and the lack of scalable algorithms, summary tools that can interpret such samples are not available. We adopt a Bayesian decision theoretic approach to define an optimality criterion for clusterings, and propose a fast and context-independent greedy algorithm to find the best allocations. One important facet of our approach is that the optimal number of groups is automatically selected, thereby solving the clustering and the model-choice problems at the same time. We consider several loss functions to compare partitions, and show that our approach can accommodate a wide range of cases. Finally, we illustrate our approach on a variety of real-data applications for three different clustering models: Gaussian finite mixtures, stochastic block models and latent block models for networks.

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arXiv2017

Choosing the number of groups in a latent stochastic block model for dynamic networks

Latent stochastic block models are flexible statistical models that are widely used in social network analysis. In recent years, efforts have been made to extend these models to temporal dynamic networks, whereby the connections between nodes are observed at a number of different times. In this paper we extend the original stochastic block model by using a Markovian property to describe the evolution of nodes' cluster memberships over time. We recast the problem of clustering the nodes of the network into a model-based context, and show that the integrated completed likelihood can be evaluated analytically for a number of likelihood models. Then, we propose a scalable greedy algorithm to maximise this quantity, thereby estimating both the optimal partition and the ideal number of groups in a single inferential framework. Finally we propose applications of our methodology to both real and artificial datasets.

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arXiv2015

Properties of Latent Variable Network Models

We derive properties of Latent Variable Models for networks, a broad class of models that includes the widely-used Latent Position Models. These include the average degree distribution, clustering coefficient, average path length and degree correlations. We introduce the Gaussian Latent Position Model, and derive analytic expressions and asymptotic approximations for its network properties. We pay particular attention to one special case, the Gaussian Latent Position Models with Random Effects, and show that it can represent the heavy-tailed degree distributions, positive asymptotic clustering coefficients and small-world behaviours that are often observed in social networks. Several real and simulated examples illustrate the ability of the models to capture important features of observed networks.

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arXiv2015

Choosing the number of clusters in a finite mixture model using an exact Integrated Completed Likelihood criterion

The integrated completed likelihood (ICL) criterion has proven to be a very popular approach in model-based clustering through automatically choosing the number of clusters in a mixture model. This approach effectively maximises the complete data likelihood, thereby including the allocation of observations to clusters in the model selection criterion. However for practical implementation one needs to introduce an approximation in order to estimate the ICL. Our contribution here is to illustrate that through the use of conjugate priors one can derive an exact expression for ICL and so avoiding any approximation. Moreover, we illustrate how one can find both the number of clusters and the best allocation of observations in one algorithmic framework. The performance of our algorithm is presented on several simulated and real examples.

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